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	<title>Digital Daily &#187; Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle</title>
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	<description>by John Paczkowski</description>
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		<link>http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20080208/yahoo-board-meeting/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Feb 2008 08:28:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Digital Daily]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Paczkowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Yang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[search advertising]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[takeover]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[You Always Have Other Options]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[A popular misconception has it that Yahoo is an acronym for &#8220;You Always Have Other Options.&#8221; (According to Yahoo&#8217;s corporate history, it&#8217;s an acronym for &#8220;Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle.&#8221;)
Well, not this time.
Because it appears to be the beginning of the endgame for Yahoo. Word on the street has it that the company&#8217;s board of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src='http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2008/02/ballmer_yahoo_dog.jpg' class='centered' style="border: 1px solid #000;" alt='ballmer_yahoo_dog.jpg' />A popular misconception has it that Yahoo is an acronym for &#8220;You Always Have Other Options.&#8221; (<em>According to <a href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/misc/history.html">Yahoo&#8217;s corporate history,</a> it&#8217;s an acronym for &#8220;Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle.&#8221;</em>)</p>
<p>Well, not this time.</p>
<p>Because it appears to be the beginning of the endgame for Yahoo. Word on the street has it that the company&#8217;s board of directors will meet this afternoon to decide whether to capitulate to Microsoft. &#8220;The board, we’ve heard, is basically being told by outside advisers to take the Microsoft deal,&#8221; <a href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/02/08/yahoo-board-to-determine-fate-of-company-today/">TechCrunch reports</a>. &#8220;But we’ve also heard that a contingent of senior executives at Yahoo, who are willing to do literally anything to thwart a Microsoft takeover, are <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20080207/yahoo_follow/">pushing for the Google deal</a> and will present their case at the meeting.&#8221;</p>
<p>Not that it <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20080205/yahoo-suitors/">will do much good</a>. Though a Yahoo/Google search-outsourcing deal might deliver 25%-plus accretion to Yahoo&#8217;s cash flow, spurning Microsoft&#8217;s $44.6 billion advance would almost certainly trigger a shareholder revolt. Which means it&#8217;s more than likely that Yahoo will accept the current bid or <a href="http://www.nypost.com/seven/02082008/business/yahoo__price_talks_329794.htm">another that&#8217;s been raised a bit,</a> as Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney has already noted in his <a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/02/05/yahoo-the-five-scenario-analysis/">widely cited &#8220;Five Scenarios&#8221; analysis:</a></p>
<ul style="border: 2px ridge #ccc; padding: 10px;">
<li> Scenario No. 1: Yahoo hits the $31 bid. 20% probability.
<li> Scenario No. 2: Yahoo rejects the bid; Microsoft ups its offer; the deal happens. <strong>40% chance.</strong>
<li> Scenario No. 3: Another bidder emerges and wins. 5% chance. (“We believe that the $45 billion price tag and the strategic value of Yahoo to Microsoft make the likelihood of a successful competing bidder very low,” Mahaney writes.)
<li> Scenario No. 4: Deal blocked by regulators. 10% chance. (Mahaney notes that the combined companies are at most 30% of total U.S. online advertising, and less than that in Europe.)
<li> Scenario No. 5: Yahoo/Google search-outsourcing deal. 25% chance. (“We believe the probability of this is greater than financial markets realize,” he writes. “If Yahoo’s board and management want to remain independent, shareholders will insist on a major value-creating strategy to balance the Microsoft bid. This may be the only viable strategy, as it could deliver 25%-plus accretion to Yahoo’s cash flow.”)
</ul>
<p>Looks like it&#8217;s scenario No. 2, then. Dun-dun&#8230; Dun-dun&#8230; Dun-dun Dun-dun Dun-dun DUN-DUN DUN-DUN! </p>
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