In a research note issued this morning, Huberty–noting that the iPhone’s market share grew 136 percent in France when Apple switched to multicarrier agreements there–said iPhone sales could more than double if the company took a similar tack in other countries.

“We expect Apple to broaden iPhone carrier distribution over the next two years and believe this opportunity is under-appreciated by the investment community,” she wrote. “This total opportunity is substantial–it adds up to an incremental 20.3M iPhone units and $3.76 in adjusted EPS, 100 percent and 41 percent of iPhone units and adjusted EPS respectively.”

Adding further details to her projections, Huberty continues: “In the top six iPhone markets that are still exclusive, we believe that Apple’s market share could rise to 10 percent, on average, in a multiple carrier distribution model from 4 percent today. These six markets represented almost 70 percent percent of iPhone shipments in C2Q09.”

Huberty also claims that if Apple (AAPL) were to end its exclusivity deal with AT&T (T) and add Verizon (VZ) as a second carrier, its share of the U.S. market would more than double, rising to 12.2 percent from 4.9 percent today.

Huberty, it should be noted, isn’t the first analyst to make such a claim. In June, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi said that a deal with Verizon could more than double U.S. iPhone sales in the near term. Said Sacconaghi: “Verizon’s postpaid subscriber base is not only larger than AT&T’s, but more importantly, is untapped whereas we estimate more than 10 percent of AT&T’s postpaid users already have an iPhone.”

You see, Palm (PALM) defines units sold as products sold to on-the-street customers or to resellers like Best Buy (BBY) and Amazon.com (AMZN). Which means that Palm can report a unit sold while it’s still sitting at inventory at various retail outlets. In other words, a Pre sold is not necessarily a Pre activated. As Eller notes, that’s problematic.

“We have been perplexed by a disconnect between PALM’s device units sold and our estimates of store level sell through,” Eller writes. “According to PALM’s reported sell through, inventory increased by 13k units and since the ‘vast majority’ of both the device units shipped and the device units sold were units of the Pre, there couldn’t be an inventory problem. The gap between the two is only 13k.”

Continuing, Eller adds a cautionary note: “However, since the company recognizes revenue on sell in to the channel and the company defines device units sold as units that have been shipped from Sprint (their primary customer) to either customers or second tier distributors, PALM could offer investors a high number of units shipped but still have a glut of inventory in the channel. We believe that channel inventory is currently about 11 weeks, which we believe will pressure reorder rates and make it more difficult to sell high ASP products going forward.”

An 11-week glut of inventory in the channel? If that’s the case, it’s certainly cause for concern, more so because many investors are evidently unaware that this is even a possibility. “[Palm’s definition of sold] does not appear to be understood by investors,” Eller notes. “We polled several of the investors who attended the Boston road show lunch and each was under the impression that sell through translated into customer activations. How can this be?”

Good question. Palm and Sprint (S) investors both might want to pay a bit more attention to Sprint’s 10-k in the future.

I’ve asked Palm for comment and will update this post when it responds.

UPDATE: This just in from Palm:

“The sell-through data we post reflects carriers’ sales to their customers. For example, Sprint customers include consumers who buy in a Sprint store, and Sprint retail partners such as Best Buy and RadioShack. We rely on our wireless carriers to provide us with sell-through data, and we note this fact in our 10Q.”

[Image credit: Flickr/Spintar]

“There’s room for three to five players in this space. We don’t have to beat each other to prosper.”

– Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein

Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein likes to say smart-phone makers “don’t have to beat each other to prosper,” but it’s beginning to look like they–or, rather, Palm–might have to. Because while the Pre may have put Palm (PALM) back in the game, it’s not clear how long it can keep it there. With competition in the emerging smart-phone market ratcheting up as we head into the holidays, some analysts are predicting that Palm’s quarterly sales may decline–sharply.

“[Palm’s] guidance of a sequential decline in revenues in the second quarter implies that Pre sales are not off to the races,” Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf wrote in a research note today. “Although Palm did not say what Pre sales were in the quarter, they appear to have been around 600,000 units, about 100,000 above our estimate. Palm indicated that revenues could fall to $240 million to $270 million in the second quarter, a number that implies that Pre sales could fall to 500,000 units vs. our previous estimate of 750,000 units.”

Interesting that Wolf pegs Pre sales as being above his estimate, since Palm hasn’t yet broken that number out. Indeed, in a conference call with analysts yesterday the company was so quick to dodge questions about Pre sales that I assumed it’s not an impressive number. But if the company really did ship 600,000 units as Wolf contends, that would suggest it’s doing pretty well at market, though certainly not as well as the Apple (AAPL) iPhone or Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry. Odd then, that Palm wouldn’t disclose a hard sales number.

“The Pre and its siblings running on Palm’s WebOS software platform appear to be a serious contender in the smartphone market,” Wolf concludes. “But it would be premature at this point to declare it a winner in view of the fact that the smartphone market will shortly be overrun with new phones from Motorola and others running on the Android platform as well as new BlackBerry models in time for the holiday selling season.”

Sure, there might be room for three to five players in the smart-phone space, as Rubinstein claims. But that space is currently occupied at least seven players–Apple, RIM, Nokia (NOK), Motorola (MOT), Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Palm. Which means somebody’s got to go. So while Palm might not have to beat anyone to prosper, it may have to, to survive.

Excluding charges related to stock options and other items, Palm (PALM) said net losses were $13.6 million, or 10 cents a share, for the recent period. Revenue slipped to $68 million from $366.9 million in the same period last year. Excluding revenue deferred from sales of the company’s new Pre handset, Palm said adjusted revenue would have been $360.7 million. Analysts had expected the company to turn in a loss of 24 cents a share on sales of $291 million.

Palm shipped a total of 823,000 smart phone units during the quarter, up 134 percent over the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009, but down 30 percent year over year. Smart phone sell-through for the quarter was 810,000 units, up 76 percent from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 and down 21 percent year over year.

Speaking to analysts Thursday afternoon, Palm execs claimed that “the vast majority of new sales” for the quarter were generated by the Pre. But they declined to separate Pre sales from those of other handsets.

Skeptics will no doubt look at this and conclude that Palm didn’t meet expectations for Pre shipments of about 520,000. That, or the company is still selling a hell of a lot of Centros.

“We’re making significant progress with Palm’s transformation, and our culture of innovation is stronger than ever,” said Jon Rubinstein, chairman and chief executive officer. “We’re launching more great Palm webOS products with more carriers, and turning our sights toward growth.”

A few more Jon Rubinstein remarks from the earnings call:

On additional form factors:

I’m a big believer in families of products, and we’ll continue to evolve the line in the future and have a family of products for webOS.

On Carrier Customization:

We don’t really talk about our carrier agreements.

On Pre sales:

Sell-in and sell-through…the vast majority of new sales…relate to the Pre.

On the Pixi cannibalizing Pre sales:

The Pixi is a more cost-effective offering, so yes we expect some people might come into the store looking to buy a Pre and end up with a Pixi. But others might come in looking for a Pixi and end up with a Pre. As I said, we’re big believers in families of products. We’re happy to have two webOS products on the market.

On carrier diversification:

Sprint did a phenomenal launch with the Pre. They invested heavily in advertising….We’re looking forward to launching the Pixi with them as well. We don’t talk about our roadmap, but we’ll have more carriers and more products in the future.

On Motorola’s new Motoblur service:

We don’t really know much about it. To build really great consumer products, you have to own the OS and services. And the fact that we have webOS as our asset is really important.

Today brings another Palm-related research note, this one from Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette. He claims that Pre sales are “robust.” According to Faucette’s channel checks, Palm is selling about 40,000 Pres per week, a “normalized” sell-through rate that he says will continue through August.

So who’s right? Piecyk or Faucette? Who knows? Until Palm (PALM) and Sprint (S) go on record with real sales metrics, we’ll have to use our imaginations. Which is pretty much what all these analysts appear to be doing right now, anyway. Honestly, they might as well be issuing research notes on jelly bean jar guessing games.

Oh, and for what it’s worth, Palm and Sprint are not willing to release sales numbers right now. Reached for comment, Sprint told me, “We’re excited by the response to Palm Pre. Demand continues to be strong, and we are working closely with our partners at Palm to meet the needs of every customer as quickly as possible.” And Palm told me me to call Sprint…

The device, intended as a replacement for the Centro, Palm’s last PalmOS smartphone, is expected to feature a 2.6-inch multitouch display, inline keyboard, two-megapixel camera and 4GB of internal storage, among other features. Word on the street has it priced at $99 with contract, rounding out the lower end of Palm’s new webOS lineup.

And when will it arrive at market? No one seems to know, though Tavis McCourt and Justin Patterson at Morgan Keegan & Company speculate that we’ll see it sometime this fall. “We believe initial Pixie shipments will begin in the November quarter, although timing is still uncertain (we believe the goal would likely be a holiday launch),” the analysts wrote in a research note today.

“Although Pixie is unlikely to be a ‘hero’ product with massive advertising and subsidy support, its $99 price point should drive substantial volumes and we believe distribution can be broader initially if not exclusive. In general, we have used the Centro as a benchmark for the Pixie. At a $99 retail price point, the Centro peaked out at about 1 million units shipped/quarter with distribution at all of Palm’s significant historic customers. We have the Pixie ramping quickly to these levels in calendar 2010 as distribution ramps.”

That seems a reasonable expectation, especially if the Pixie isn’t exclusive to a single carrier. And at present, it’s thought that the device will be available, at least initially, from both AT&T (T) and Sprint (S).

So, as McCourt and Patterson note, Palm (PALM) could be poised for some significant gains in market share. “We expect Pre shipments of 2.2 million in 2010 (May 2010) and Pixie shipments of 1.2 million,” the analysts write. “Based on our bottoms up estimate, we forecast Palm will ship just over 7 million smartphones in fiscal 2011, which would likely represent about 4 percent of smartphone share, but a more meaningful–10 percent share of its core N. America market.”

[Image credit: Engadget]

At the time of this writing, Apple’s iPhone availability widget (pictured) is showing shortages of various iPhones at Apple stores across the United States. The device is completely sold out in states like Alabama, Delaware and Kentucky, where Apple (AAPL) has a limited retail presence. In others, its availability varies, though there seems to be higher demand for black phones than white.

An impressive performance, particularly at a time when consumers are inclined to be more frugal than usual.

In an investment note issued this morning, Munster estimated that the company sold 750,000 iPhones over the weekend–25 percent fewer than the one million units of the iPhone 3G model Apple sold during the launch of that device last July, but 50 percent more than the 500,000 he originally predicted.

“The only true benchmark for judging the launch of the iPhone 3G S will be the time it takes Apple to sell 1 million units. Apple sold 1 million 1st generation iPhones in 74 days and 1 million iPhone 3G units in 3 days. We are uncertain whether or not Apple will announce the 1 millionth iPhone 3G S; regardless, we are increasingly confident in our 5 million iPhone unit estimate for the June 09 quarter following the price drop of the iPhone 3G from $199 to $99 in early June and the launch for the iPhone 3G S, where interest in the device surpassed our expectations.”

A few other points worth noting from Munster’s note. The analyst surveyed 256 customers at Apple (AAPL) stores in New York and Minneapolis over the weekend about their preferred OS, the size of the iPhone they were purchasing and the phones from which they were upgrading, among other things (see table below; click to enlarge). In the 256, he found a mix of 66 percent Mac users and 34 percent PC, similar to what he found last year (61 percent Mac, 39 percent PC).

Of those surveyed, 43 percent purchased the high-end 32-gigabyte iPhone 3GS, less than the 66 percent of buyers who purchased the 16GB iPhone 3G last year. And 56 percent were upgrading from an old iPhone–up from 38 percent last year. “We believe this shows Apple is developing brand loyalty not enjoyed by other mobile phone makers,” Munster notes.

“At the outset of the company’s iPhone initiative, one of Apple’s goals was to develop the kind of brand loyalty it has developed among Mac and iPod customers, and we believe they are succeeding thus far. As the footprint expands, and loyalty expands as well, Apple will increasingly enjoy a base of customers who regularly upgrade to the newest version of the mobile phones the company releases in what appears to be an annual cycle.”

As I write this, Palm is trading at $6.10–up an astonishing 85 percent since its big announcement. And it seems destined to go higher still, given the enthusiastic reception analysts have given it.

Deutsche Bank’s Jonathan Goldberg raised his rating on Palm (PALM) to Hold from Sell saying this morning that he is impressed with the Pre and the direction in which the company is now heading.

“Our thesis on Palm has been that its future is a binary outcome,” he wrote in a note to clients. “We are favorably impressed with the new device and more importantly with the new WebOS. We think the focus has now shifted from their mere survival to execution. The earnings model has the potential for significant earnings leverage, but our outlook is tempered by Palm’s history of missteps. We think they can ship 1m units FY09 and 4m in FY10. The stock has run significantly over the past two days reflecting this, but as we learn more about the popularity of the OS and the potential for them to actually ship a UMTS version of the Pre this year we will revisit our thesis.”

Obviously, there are a few noteworthy caveats in there. Still, Goldberg’s note is vastly different from the funereal notes analysts were writing about the company less than a month ago. Indeed, on Dec. 18, Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek essentially dismissed the company. “Due to increased competition in the industry, Palm has lost its place as a leading smartphone manufacturer and has gradually become less relevant as more competitors have introduced more innovative smartphone devices,” Misek said. “The company is financially distressed and lacks any viable future catalysts which could help restore profitability…. We believe that Palm has become largely irrelevant in the smartphone space due to a series of strategic errors and poor execution.”

Clearly, Palm’s situation has changed for the better. Now, let’s see for how long.