Revenue fell nine percent, year over year, to $2.5 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $2.67 billion. And at 39 cents, profit per share missed analysts’ 42-cent estimate.

Worse, SAP (SAP) reduced its forecast for the year. Where the once Teutonically solid company had foreseen a drop in revenue of four to six percent, it now sees a drop of six to eight percent. Clearly, sales of the software licenses necessary for building ongoing revenue continue to deteriorate.

Add to this Apothekar’s comments about “a particularly challenging environment in Japan and emerging markets” and his claim that “businesses are still very cautious in making major investments,” and you begin to see why SAP’s shares were so brutalized in early afternoon trading.

SAP’s earnings were “a clear miss” analysts at Commerzbank said in a report issued this afternoon. “The lowered software and software-related services guidance for 2009 indicates that the deal pipeline still suffers from a lack of larger deals and that clients remain reluctant to spend on SAP applications.”

And get this: Netflix (NFLX) added a net 510,000 subscribers during the period, 95 percent more than in the same three months last year. In fact, in the past year, Netflix has added 2.4 million subscribers, the most it has signed on in its 10-year history.

“Our business momentum is strong and our third-quarter performance keeps us solidly on course for a record 2009,” Netflix CEO Reed Hastings said in a statement.

Given that and the fact that Netflix beat estimates, it’s odd to see investors dragging the company’s shares down. Netflix fell 4.39 percent to 47.45 in after-hours trading.

The online auctioneer reported revenue of $2.23 billion, up six percent from a year ago, while net income fell 29 percent to $350 million or 27 cents per share. Excluding some items, earnings were 38 cents a share. Analysts who follow eBay expected the company to turn in a gain of 37 cents per share on sales of $2.14 billion.

Gross merchandise volume–the value of all goods sold via eBay–rose seven percent from the same period last year. Analysts had believed it would drop between five and 10 percent.

EBay said it sees fourth-quarter earnings of 38 cents to 40 cents a share, on revenue of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion.

“Our third quarter results were strong, with PayPal gaining momentum and market share worldwide and our core eBay business showing positive trends,” John J. Donahoe, eBay’s chief executive, said in a statement.

NOTES FROM THE EARNINGS CALL

On business overall:
eBay CEO John Donahoe: “These are strong results for a strong company….We’re seeing our turnaround efforts begin to pay off.”

On the economy:
Donahoe: “The economy as we see it is stable, and we’re cautiously optimistic about consumer spending going into the holiday.”

On the Skype lawsuit:
eBay CFO Bob Swan: “We’re highly confident in our position.”

This morning, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bernstein both had good things to say about the company, noting that investors may have underestimated its potential for growth. “Discussions with advertising agencies, including a dinner we hosted with senior agency executives, point to rising spending on Google since June, led by travel, clothing and home improvement advertisers,” Goldman said in a research note issued this morning.

Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay was similarly bullish. “We expect Google’s results to show some signs of cyclical improvement in Q3, as easier comparisons and more favorable currencies should benefit topline trends,” he wrote in a research note. “Paid search is an early cycle advertising format given the immediacy of keyword auctions, and Google has maintained its dominant position within the category.”

Also bolstering Google (GOOG) shares today are the recent comments of company CEO Eric Schmidt, who told journalists at a roundtable discussion last week that the economy is starting to turn around. “The worst is behind us and we clearly see aspects of recovery, and what is notable is we’re seeing aspects of recovery not just in the United States but also in Europe,” Schmidt said. “We are increasing our hiring rate and our investment rate in anticipation of a recovery.”

Cisco (CSCO) will pay nearly $3 billion in cash for the Norwegian videoconference company, which it hopes will bolster its position in videoconferencing. The offer values Tandberg at 11 percent more than its closing price in Oslo trading yesterday and at about 23 times 2010 earnings. But the company’s lower-end TelePresence systems and specialized software for managing teleconferences will do much to help Cisco dominate the $34 billion collaboration market.

It’s worth noting that earlier this year, Gartner (IT) forecast that video telepresence could replace 2.1 million business travel flights a year by 2012, diverting $3.5 billion annually from the airline industry.

“This fits very well with Cisco,” Robeco NV’s Michiel Plakman told Bloomberg. “They will immediately become the most important player in the market and aren’t paying a ridiculous premium, so this is positive.”

Cisco’s tender offer has the recommendation of the Tandberg board and is expected to close in the first half of next year.

How can that be? Research in Motion (RIMM) sold 7.8 million BlackBerries in an abysmal economy. It added 3.8 million new BlackBerry subscriber accounts during the quarter. For its second quarter, RIM expects to earn 94 cents to $1.03 a share on revenue of $3.45-$3.70 billion. What’s not to like about that?

Plenty, apparently. Seems investors find the company’s forward guidance a bit lacking. Analysts forecast earnings of 97 cents a share on revenue of $3.61 billion.

Clearly, shaken investors are trying to divine just what, exactly, Jobs means by “complex,” which could mean anything from more rest and time with family to surgery, IV meds or whatever.

Sounds like Jobs is doing the right thing for himself, his family and the company. But all anyone can do is hope he gets well.

Team,
I am sure all of you saw my letter last week sharing something very personal with the Apple community. Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought.

Steve

Coming as it does after Jobs’s disclosure last week that he had a hormone deficiency that had caused him to dramatically lose weight, this is very worrisome news for Apple and its shareholders.

A quick thought on that last point: CNBC’s Jim Goldman says he’s sure Jobs’s decision to skip the Macworld keynote has nothing to do with his health. If that’s the case, tapping Phil Schiller to deliver the company’s final Macworld “Stevenote” likely has more to do with Apple’s acrimonious relationship with Macworld organizer IDG than anything else. Given the media attention the company’s able to command these days, Apple no longer really needs events like Macworld. The company’s special events are equally as effective in generating publicity and far easier to orchestrate and control.

So would Apple really send Senior VP Phil Schiller out onto the Macworld stage without a cool new product to introduce? Probably. So much for that netbook …

The unexpected announcement is already playing hell with Apple’s share price, no doubt fueled by further morbid speculation about Jobs’s health. AAPL slipped more that five percent to $90.44 in after-hours trading.

Wow. End of an era. Is this the set-up for Schiller as new iCEO? After all, he’ll be delivering the keynote address at Apple’s marquee event. Or is it simply an acknowledgment that Apple prefers to handle its own events on its own schedule?

Either way it’s a nasty blow to IDG, the publishing company that runs Macworld. Right now they’ve got to be chugging Mylanta by the gallon at IDG corporate.

———-

Apple Announces Its Last Year at Macworld

CUPERTINO, California—December 16, 2008—Apple® today announced that this year is the last year the company will exhibit at Macworld Expo. Philip Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing, will deliver the opening keynote for this year’s Macworld Conference & Expo, and it will be Apple’s last keynote at the show. The keynote address will be held at Moscone West on Tuesday, January 6, 2009 at 9:00 a.m. Macworld will be held at San Francisco’s Moscone Center January 5-9, 2009.

Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers. The increasing popularity of Apple’s Retail Stores, which more than 3.5 million people visit every week, and the Apple.com website enable Apple to directly reach more than a hundred million customers around the world in innovative new ways.

Apple has been steadily scaling back on trade shows in recent years, including NAB, Macworld New York, Macworld Tokyo and Apple Expo in Paris.

Clearly, the so-called IPO window has been slammed shut by the capital crisis. Indeed, data from Dealogic show that 298 IPOs were postponed or withdrawn over the past 11 months–quite a few more than the 167 that met that fate in all of the 2007. And those companies that went through with their offerings didn’t fare so well. Almost 50 percent of new issues fell on their first day of trading, and aftermarket performance was poor, according to Renaissance Capital; the average new issue was down 38 percent by year-end.

“Performance of 2008 new issues in the US was abysmal by historical standards, although not surprising given the steep decline in equities,” says Renaissance. “The average first day pop was a paltry 2%, down from the more than 10% average first day return investors became accustomed to in each of the last five years. A whopping 58% of all new issues traded down in their market debut, the worst first day showing in at least a decade and almost four times the IPO market’s 10-year average.”

Little wonder, then, that the U.S. went three months without an IPO during the second half of the year–the longest dry spell since the recession of the 1970s.

When will the IPO market return? Tough to say. Renaissance says there’s a lot of pent-up demand by potential issuers to raise equity capital. But they’re not likely to test the IPO waters until the financial markets stabilize.

Ugly news for the company’s workforce, which has already seen its headcount reduced by 4,600 this year as part of a reorganization of AT&T’s shrinking landline business.

Shares of AT&T (T), which have dropped by about 30 percent this year, slipped another 2.7 percent in pre-market trading.

Citing the standard litany of economic tribulations, Adobe (ADBE) Wednesday reduced its fourth-quarter outlook and said it will cut 600 jobs around the world–about eight percent of its workforce. The company now expects revenue of $912 million to $915 million. In better times, that revenue target range had been $925 million to $955 million. “The global economic crisis significantly impacted our revenue during the fourth quarter,” said CEO Shantanu Narayen. “We have taken action to reduce our operating costs and fine-tune the focus of our resources on key strategic priorities.”

Adobe shares slipped nine percent to $20.50 in after-hours trading.