“I think the whole category is still a hobby right now. I don’t think anybody has succeeded at it. And actually the experimentation has slowed down. A lot of the early companies that were trying things have faded away. So I would have to say that given the economic conditions, given the venture capital outlooks and stuff, I continue to believe it will be a hobby in 2009.”

– Apple CEO Steve Jobs, October 2008

“We still consider this a hobby. It is clear that the movie rental business has really helped Apple TV and there are more and more customers that want to try it. And we’re going to continue to invest in it, because we fundamentally believe there is something there for us in the future.”

– Apple COO Tim Cook, January 2009

There’s not much of a business yet in Apple TV, as Apple’s leadership often notes. But there may be soon, with the market for connected TVs evolving as it has been.

In a research note issued this morning, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says the time is right for Apple to release the next iteration of Apple TV–one that offers DVR capabilities and supports iTunes TV show subscriptions.

“Apple could leverage its deep library of content with many network and cable channel content owners to provide unlimited access to a sub-library of its TV shows for a standard monthly fee ($30 or $40 per month),” Munster writes. “Such a product would effectively replace a consumer’s monthly cable bill (~$85/month) and offer access to current and older episodes of select shows on select channels.”

Further, Munster notes, “The selection would dictate the value, and several tiers could be offered, but we see this as one way for Apple to leverage its large iTunes content library as well as its unique Apple TV hardware in order to get digital video to the TV for a price significantly less than the average cable or satellite TV bill.”

Makes great sense. And if Apple (AAPL) were to launch these services in concert with App Store support, as Munster has suggested in the past, it would be a pretty compelling proposition. And it would set the stage for the next evolution of the platform, the Apple Television, an Internet-connected TV with onboard DVR and media center functionality.

Says Munster:

“Beyond new hardware with DVR or iTunes video subscription features, we believe the 2-5 year roadmap for the Apple TV product lineup is robust. To begin with, Internet-connected TVs with interactive features will likely gain popularity in the next several years. Apple could differentiate itself in this market as a seasoned software developer competing largely with television hardware manufacturers that do not excel in the software arena. The device could also bring iPhone games, a relatively new segment for Apple, to the television.

“While this is unlikely in the near term,” Munster continues, “we believe the iPhone will succeed as a portable gaming platform and Apple may consider bringing higher quality games developed on a similar platform to the TV. The iPhone app developer community is already robust, and Apple could leverage those developers to enter the gaming arena on the TV. In fact, the iPhone or iPod touch could itself operate as a touchscreen gaming control for a game-centric Apple TV.”

Again, this makes great sense, though TV hardware is not an easy business–just ask Sony (SNE). But, as Munster aptly notes, it might be quite a bit less difficult if Apple were to “change the rules of the game,” something it’s done in a number of markets already.

That said, as Media Memo’s Peter Kafka just reminded me, the cable companies are working very closely with Hollywood to make sure it’s difficult for people to replace their cable service. They’d almost certainly attempt to sack an initiative like one Munster describes above.

“We did a long-term supply agreement with Toshiba,” Cook explained. “As a part of that, as part of the terms and conditions, we paid them $500 million as a pre-pay earlier in the quarter. You know, we view Flash as a very key component for us because as you know we use it in so much on so many of our products and also we are a reasonable percentage of the user of Flash on a worldwide basis.”

Indeed, Apple (AAPL) sells millions of NAND flash-enabled devices each year, so many that its needs often constrain supply for the entire market. In 2005, the company arranged to purchase up to 40 percent of Samsung Electronics’ holiday NAND output for use in it iPods. In July of last year Apple bought 50 million 8Gb-equivalent NAND flash chips from Samsung, forcing the company to reduce its supply to other customers.

Then, this past April, Apple ordered 100 million 8Gb–or one-gigabyte (1GB)–chips from Samsung, once again causing flash supplies to tighten. Now we have this $500 million prepayment, which, according to sources, will keep Apple in NAND for about three months.

Great news for Toshiba, which has been suffering mounting losses in the midst of tougher competition, and for the NAND market as well. As Tim Cook said yesterday, “The NAND market has now begun to stabilize and we expect it to move towards a supply/demand balance.”

Demand for Apple’s iPhone 3GS, which topped one million handsets sold in its first weekend at market, has surpassed even the company’s presumably aggressive targets. Reporting earnings Tuesday, Apple (AAPL) said it sold 5.2 million iPhones in its third quarter and finally copped to something that’s long been apparent to anyone who’s been keeping an eye on its iPhone availability widget: Demand for the new iPhone 3GS is far outpacing supply.

“The iPhone 3GS is currently constrained in virtually every country we’re shipping in…and we’re working very hard to fulfill that demand,” Apple COO Tim Cook said during a conference call with analysts, adding that if the situation persists, some overseas launches might be delayed.

“In terms of affecting the country rollout, I believe the vast majority of the countries that we are selling the 3G in we will be selling the 3GS I think by the end of the fiscal quarter,” Cook said. “It may move a date by a few weeks here or there…I don’t want to predict today when supply and demand will balance. I know that it will not balance in the short term. And I don’t want to give a prediction, because as you can guess it’s very difficult to gauge the demand without having the supply there to find out what it is.”

Cook added that Apple expects to bring the 3GS to most countries where the iPhone 3G is currently available by the end of the September quarter.

One last point worth noting here: Voracious demand for the iPhone has made the device the second-largest contributor to Apple’s bottom line, surpassing the iPod for the first time. Revenue for the iPod for the quarter slipped 11 percent to $1.492 billion, down from $1.678 billion. Meanwhile iPhone revenue grew 303 percent to $1.689 billion, accounting for 19 percent of the $8.3 billion in revenue Apple reported in its third fiscal quarter.

Amazing to think the device debuted just two years ago. If Apple’s business model is as, as Steve Jobs likes to say, a stool that rests on three legs–the Mac, the iPod and the iPhone–then it’s increasingly becoming one that never wobbles.

How’s September of 2009 sound? Because China Business Network claims that China Unicom and Apple have finally inked a deal that will bring the iPhone to the country around that time.

Manufactured by Foxconn, the Chinese version of the iconic handset will reportedly be identical to the original in all features save one: To comply with the demands of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Chinese version of the iPhone will lack Wi-Fi support.

Why would people pay retail for a defeatured iPhone when they could buy the real thing on the country’s flourishing gray market? Well, for one thing, Wi-Fi-enabled iPhones are pricey–$695 for the 16GB model, $811 for the 32GB version. For another, they might not perceive Wi-Fi as a necessity, as Dan Butterfield notes over at iPhonAsia.

“While some consumers in China may prefer grey-market iPhones with WiFi, there are many millions that have never used WiFi on their phones and have only experienced 2G speeds,” Butterfield explains. “For this group, WiFi might be a less important feature. They may be more interested in iPhone’s enjoyable user-experience, entertainment value and status.”

Either way, defeatured or not, Apple (AAPL) benefits. “For China’s most tech-savvy power-consumers, WiFi will be important,” says Butterfield. “As a result, I suspect smuggling of WiFi-enabled iPhones will continue to be a profitable enterprise. Apple will be a prime beneficiary as grey-marketers will continue to acquire full-price WiFi enabled iPhones in Hong Kong….

“Using conservative estimates,” Butterfield continues, “I believe Apple can capture a full 2% share of the wireless market in China within the first 12 months of an official iPhone launch. That’s 14 million iPhones and perhaps another 2 million or so coming via grey-market iPhone sales.”

[Image credit: iPhonAsia]

“If (the Eee PC from) Asus starts to do well, we are all in trouble. That’s just a race to the bottom.”

– Mike Abary, senior vice president of Sony’s IT product division, February, 2008

If the netbook market is a race to the bottom, then Sony is bringing up the rear. Not a year after Sony execs disparaged netbooks as undeserving of its premium brand attention, the company announced its token entry into the market: the Vaio W.

Outfitted with a 10-inch screen, an Intel (INTC) Atom processor, 1GB of memory, a 160GB hard disk drive and Windows XP, the machine prices out at $630 in Japan, $499 in the U.S. That’s quite a bit more expensive than rival netbooks. Which is odd since the market for these machines is fairly price-sensitive. Still, Sony (SNE) feels the W is good value for the money, given its design, cheery color palette (white, brown, pink!) and screen resolution–at 1366 by 768 pixels, the W’s display is clearly better than that of its rivals.

Said Vaio chief Nicolas Barendson, “We believe that this screen resolution and design offers our customers a better experience, and that it will be popular with both newcomers to the netbook market looking for a quality portable PC at a netbook price point, and customers wanting to improve their existing netbook experience to date by upgrading their screens.”

Sony’s announcement leaves Apple (AAPL) as the lone major computer manufacturer without a netbook offering, a designation it’s likely to keep for the foreseeable future, according to company execs. “When I look at netbooks, I see cramped keyboards, terrible software, junky hardware, very small screens,” COO Tim Cook said back in April, noting that it’s “a stretch” to call a netbook a personal computer. “It’s just not a good consumer experience and not something we would put the Mac brand on…it’s not a space as it exists today that we are interested in, nor do we believe that customers in the long term would be interested in. It’s a segment we would choose not to play in.”

“Customers are voting and the iPhone is winning,” Apple CEO Steve Jobs said a press release today. “With over 50,000 applications available from Apple’s revolutionary App Store, iPhone momentum is stronger than ever.”

An impressive showing. Particularly considering all the factors that could slow sales: The souring economy, competition from the Palm (PALM) Pre, the BlackBerry Storm, the T-Mobile G1 and, of course, the iPhone itself. After all, there is now a $99 iPhone on the market. Beyond this, there’s the fact that the 3GS was launched in eight countries. The 3G debuted in 21.

Interestingly, this is the first time we’ve seen Jobs quoted in an Apple release in some time now. As best I can tell, the last quote attributed to him was in a Jan. 21, 2009, earnings release. Since then, Apple (AAPL) has issued 22 more press releases. This is the first in which it is Jobs, and not COO Tim Cook or Phil Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing, who is quoted. Does this mean he’s officially back at work following his medical leave? I’ve put that question to Apple and will update if I hear back.

[Image credit: Gizmodo]

But it’s getting closer.

Interfax reports that Apple (AAPL) is near to obtaining the Network Access License from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that would allow the iPhone to be sold in the country. Once the license is secured, Apple needs only to finalize a distribution deal with China Unicom to make good on Cook’s promise, though that has proven problematic.

Apple’s discussions with China Unicom have reportedly been troubled by the company’s distaste for the idea of China Unicom preinstalling non-Apple software–a media player other than iTunes, for example–on its iconic handset. That said, Apple is apparently confident enough in a positive outcome that it’s begun staffing up for a launch. Last week the company posted an ad to its recruitment Web site looking for someone to oversee “iPhone training” across Asia. The position, which will be based out of Beijing, is responsible for designing training programs for iPhone sales teams and retail channels partners.

“Between indications from our component contacts in Asia, recent patents relating to multi-touch sensitivity for more complex computing devices, comments from Tim Cook on the April 22nd conference call, and Apple’s acquisition of P.A. Semi along with other recent chip-related hires, it is increasingly clear that Apple is investing more in its mobile computing franchise,” he writes. “Specifically, we expect this to result in a larger (7″-10″) touchscreen tablet that will launch in 1H CY10. Additionally, Apple’s consistent message that it refuses to launch a ‘cheap’ portable netbook, and its desire to differentiate itself in a maturing market before it’s too late, plus its gradual addition of multi-touch technology to all of its core products (iPhones, iPods and Macs) leads us to conclude this product will be a touchscreen tablet.”

Munster theorizes that the device will use a third version of Mac OS X to offer a sort of middle ground between the iPod touch and the MacBook. “The device’s OS could bear a close resemblance to Apple’s iPhone OS and run App Store apps,” he wrote. “Key apps, like Safari and Mail, could make use of the larger screen resolution, making Apple’s tablet appealing for more extended use, but the company could continue to leverage its primary asset in mobile computing, the App Store, in this scenario.”

The design of that OS, however, has been time-consuming and will keep the device from market until the first half of next year. “We expect the development of such an OS to be underway currently,” Munster says, “but its complexity, along with our conversations with a key company in the mobile space, leads us to believe it will not launch until CY10.”

[Image Credit: MacBlogz]