• A delayed EC review process of the current proposed acquisition, which may end in a rejection left unchallenged by Oracle
• A renegotiated deal with Oracle, which would likely exclude MySQL and therefore involve a renegotiated deal price
• An offer by IBM (IBM) to buy Sun at a discount to the Oracle offer following a rejection by the EC of the current Oracle deal
• A scrapping of the deal by Oracle

Interestingly, Reid feels this last possibility isn’t as disastrous as it might sound. Sun has $1.8 billion in cash, and while its latest results weren’t at all pretty, they did feature improving gross margins.

“Our current thesis on [Sun] assumes the announced [Oracle] acquisition will close, but risks have increased,” Reid wrote. “There remains a risk that the European Commission will provide a ’statement of objections’ to [Oracle’s] planned acquisition of [Sun] based on concerns regarding [Oracle’s] plans for the MySQL database which [Sun] currently owns. The deadline for such a decision is January 19, 2010 but it is possible that the EC will state objections before the end of the year.”

Elaborating, Reid notes that “Although [Oracle] could likely reduce the risk of a statement of objection–and thus of a delayed or perhaps failed bid for [Sun]–by supplying to the EC an argument to explain why the [Oracle-Sun] deal will not adversely impact competition in the database market, our assumptions around [Sun’s] valuation include increased risk regarding the completion of the [Oracle-Sun] transaction at $9.50….While we believe the currently proposed acquisition by [Oracle] is the most likely outcome for [Sun], we believe other scenarios remain possible, although each is made more difficult by the continued uncertainty around Sun’s fate, and the resulting erosion in customer confidence in Sun.”

Sounding off in a barrage of research notes today, analysts suggested Palm investors view the transition in leadership as a positive. “The timing was certainly awkward, coming just four days after the launch of the Pre,” Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Matthew Sheerin said in a note to investors. “Our take is that Rubinstein was being groomed for the last two years to run the company, and is ready for the next challenge, having put together a solid engineering team.”

James Faucette of Pacific Crest agreed. “Our turnaround thesis on Palm has always been rooted in the development team that Palm had recently put together, particularly the addition of Jon Rubinstein as head of development,” he said. “Today’s announcement effectively ensures that one of Silicon Valley’s best talents not only remains with Palm, but is fully engaged with the company’s future.”

And Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry said the streamlining of senior management roles at Palm was an absolute necessity. “I think this is the right move, a smart move,” he told the Mercury News. “[Rubinstein’s] involvement in the company has to be more mainstream. He has to be responsible for the success, and accountable for the failure, if there is any.”

Palm shares were up nearly eight percent, to $12.94 at the time of this writing. That’s up more than 500 percent since last December.

Actually, it seems quite systematic. “It’s part of the global cost-cutting move,” one Oracle (ORCL) employee tells The Times of India, which notes that 40 workers were just let go at the company’s Bangalore offices. “This is just the initial move and the numbers will definitely increase. By next week, we should get the actual figures.”

Now, word on the street has it that the figure in question here is somewhere around 8,000. But there’s no mention of Oracle in the latest EDD Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification list, which would seem to suggest that 8,000 figure is bogus. And according to our sources it is. We’re told that layoffs are occurring, but that their number is in the hundreds, not thousands.

“We believe demand has deteriorated across most of the company’s core end-markets, with a particularly sharp slowdown in handsets, evidenced by a number of key supplier and competitor pre-announcements,” Sheerin wrote in a note to clients. “[The economic downturn] will make a recovery in the core handset business even more challenging and could accelerate cash burn.”

More ugly news for Motorola (MOT), which last week had its credit rating slashed to Junk by Standard & Poor’s.