“Now we aren’t typically the carrier that comes out and announces what we are going to be selling 12 months from now. Other carriers do that, and the media loves to speculate on what we are bringing to market. But what I will tell you is that over the next six months or so you will see devices like the Palm Pre and the cousin on our network from Palm.”

– Verizon Wireless President and CEO Lowell McAdam

For Palm, 2010 will be a year of channel expansion, with its new webOS handsets coming to more carriers. Top among them, Verizon (VZ), which has been rumored to be getting a device “like the Palm Pre” since Palm (PALM) launched it. In a research note to investors today, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu says a Palm smartphone on Verizon is pretty much inevitable.

“Based on our checks with industry and supply chain sources, we have fairly high conviction in Verizon carrying Palm’s webOS-based smart phones sometime in 2010 (potentially as early as 1H),” Wu writes.

“The reason,” Wu explains, “is three-fold: 1) despite heavy promotion and favorable reviews, sales of Android 2.0 smart phones (MOT Droid and HTC Droid Eris) have been somewhat disappointing and below expectations; 2) strong indications point to Palm’s launch exclusive with Sprint ending in 2009; and 3) our checks show high interest in webOS from Verizon including public comments by CEO Lowell McAdam.”

Interesting, especially the comment about Droid sales. If Wu is right, the device may not prove as daunting a competitive challenge as you would think.

“It’s too early to declare game over,” Wu says. “Talking with investors, most have written off Palm as a legitimate competitor and assumed Android will be the platform of choice at Verizon and other carriers. We believe Palm still has sizable advantages with its multitouch capability and vertical integration.”

With Clearwire struggling to build out a next-generation network that will go up against Verizon Wireless (VZ) and AT&T (T) for future mobile customers, Sprint has little choice but to throw more money at it. But it’s not alone in doing so. Fellow partners Comcast (CMSCA), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Intel (INTC), Eagle River Holdings and Bright House Networks are also making additional investments, though together they total only $500 million.

Oddly absent from this list is Google (GOOG), which participated in a May 2008 investment round that pumped $12 billion into Clearwire but has evidently decided to sit this one out. Said Google spokesman Andrew Pederson: “We have already made a significant financial investment, and at this point we think the best way we can continue to add value is through continued product and strategic cooperation.”

One wonders if the shared mission of which the two companies boasted when the deal was announced has somehow changed in the ensuing year.

“The company is taking this action in a careful manner to ensure that there is no impact on the improved customer experience that has been reflected in much higher levels of satisfaction in customer surveys and in independent performance tests,” Sprint said in a statement. “Sprint has pledged to not waver on the company’s commitment to quality service and products….The impact on geographic locations will vary, and many impacted positions will be eliminated by Dec. 31, 2009.”

Nice. Just in time for the holidays, too.

Earlier this week, analysts at Citigroup (C) and CL King voiced their concerns about the company in the wake of another ugly quarter from carrier partner Sprint (S). Now Standard & Poor’s is doing so as well. In a note to investors today, analyst James Moorman whacked down his price target on the company’s shares to $10 from $12 and reiterated his “Strong Sell rating.

“We believe the upcoming holiday selling season will be very competitive for handset vendors and think Palm could see competitive pressures,” he wrote. “We believe the small price difference between the Pre handset (especially when on sale at third party vendors) and the new lower-end Pixie could limit Pixie sales and confuse consumers during the launch.”
 
Indeed. As I noted here last week the $99 price Sprint has set for the Pixi is identical to the Pre’s on Amazon (AMZN). And the Pre has a faster processor, a better screen, and Wi-Fi support as well.

Not the most desirable circumstances for heading into the holiday season.

Shares in the handset maker fell some 23 percent last week amid concerns about increased competition from Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system, which is being rolled out on a number of devices at a variety of carriers, including Palm partner Sprint (S).

This morning, analysts at Citigroup (C) cut their recommendations to sell from hold on Palm (PALM) while simultaneously raising their rating on Motorola (MOT) because of its “compelling” new Android handset, Droid.

“Motorola is launching of one of the most compelling offerings at [a] time when many investors have given up on the company’s handsets,” Citigroup analyst Jim Suva wrote in a research note.

“The revolution of product and application service offerings,” Suva added, “is going to start to crack open the enterprise door and could pose a risk for BlackBerry. Major shifts in promotion support creating a promotion commotion in the months ahead favor Motorola and post a challenge for RIMM and PALM.”

Over at CL King, analyst Lawrence Harris is similarly dubious of Palm’s prospects in the months ahead. Noting that Sprint executive David Owens said last week that the carrier plans to peddle a number of new Android devices from HTC next year, Harris sees unfavorable implications for Palm.

“Historically, Sprint has been Palm’s largest customer. Indeed, in the August quarter Sprint accounted for 85 percent of Palm’s revenues,” Harris wrote in a note to investors. “In FY09 (May) Sprint represented 43 percent of total Palm sales. Sprint has a U.S. exclusive on both the Pre and the Pixi through calendar year end. The Pixi will be launched at Sprint on November 15 for $99.99. The Pixi is fairly similar to the $149.99 Pre. Verizon has stated that it will begin offering the Pre in early CY10.”

Expounding on his analysis, Harris notes that “According to a report on Mobile Today, a U.K.-based publication, initial sales of the Pre through Telefonica’s O2 unit in the U.K. have been slow. If this report is correct, than the bulk of Palm’s sales over the next few months will probably continue to be generated through Sprint.”

That Sprint will soon add some slick new Android handsets to its lineup is worrisome, then, indeed. For Palm, it seems, driving conditions on the road to recovery are looking increasingly hazardous.

In its second quarter–the first with the Pre in its lineup–Sprint (S) lost 991,000 postpaid subscribers. And in its third, reported yesterday, its lost 801,000. So subscriber loss, while unquestionably gruesome, is diminishing.

How much of this is due to Palm’s (PALM) Pre? Not that much, says CL King & Associates analyst Lawrence Harris, who believes the Pre had only a moderate impact on Sprint’s postpaid subscriber base.

“Within postpaid, the number of CDMA-only subscriber losses was about 100,000 in the September quarter, compared to the 200,000 in the June quarter,” Harris wrote in a research note to clients. “At Sprint, the Palm Pre is a CDMA-only postpaid device. The number of Sprint postpaid subscribers upgrading their handsets was slightly higher in the September quarter than in the June quarter at just over 2.0 million.”

According to Harris, “This number provides some indication of the available market for all high-end devices at Sprint. In Palm’s August quarter, 85% of the company’s sales went to Sprint. Given the absence of growth in Sprint’s CDMA postpaid category, it appears likely that most of the Palm Pre sales went to existing Sprint subscribers as opposed to winning customers from other carriers.”

That would seem to be the case. Sprint rivals AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ) each added subscribers during the second quarter–1.4 million and 1.1 million, respectively. So if the Pre did anything for Sprint, it helped to stem CDMA postpaid losses a bit.

And that’s something, right? After all, there’s no panacea for Sprint’s affliction–well, perhaps there is, but it’s locked up in an exclusivity agreement with AT&T (T). Still, when Sprint last reported earnings, CEO Dan Hesse said the carrier expected to sign up more new customers as the Pre gained wider distribution through retail outlets like Best Buy (BBY) and RadioShack. And that doesn’t really seemed to have happened. Perhaps next quarter after Sprint launches the Pre’s not-quite-cheaper sibling, the Pixi.

UPDATE: A quick addendum. In a research note this morning, Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett notes that while Sprint has reduced subscriber losses a bit, the cost of doing so has been worrisomely high.

“Yes, net subscriber losses were better,” Moffet explains. “But the cost was very high. Post-paid equipment subsidies soared to $139 per subsidized subscriber in Q3 (up 39 percent from last year), as the company recovered just 36 percent of their equipment costs….Yesterday’s results illustrate why it may not be possible for Sprint to have its cake and eat it too. After all the drastic cost cutting, after all the efforts to refresh the product line, after all the price cuts and new pricing plans, Sprint was able to manage only a modest improvement. Not growth, just a slightly slower rate of decline. And that Herculean effort almost broke the bank. The huge costs of even marginally improving gross additions (and the rate of net subscriber loss) crushed margins.”

Reporting a wider third-quarter loss than expected this morning, Sprint (S) said it lost 545,000 wireless customers and 801,000 more in the crucial postpaid category. That’s well below what analysts had feared, but brutal nonetheless. Even more so considering that AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ) added two million and 1.2 million total customers respectively during their latest quarters.

As I said earlier this year, Sprint is hemorrhaging subscribers like Dan Ackroyd’s exsanguinating Julia Child. And it continues to do so. The company’s churn rate, or the measure of subscribers dropping service, was 2.17 percent, up from 2.05 percent in the second quarter. Alarming, to say the least, though as the charts below (click to enlarge) indicate, the bleeding is slowing a bit.

And what of Sprint’s financial performance for the quarter? Well, put it this way: The company lost nearly half a billion dollars. For the three months ending Sept. 30, Sprint lost $478 million, or 17 cents a share. This compares with a loss of $326 million, or 11 cents a share, during the same period in 2008.

Analysts had been expecting a loss of 21 cents a share for the quarter. Revenue was $8.04 billion, down nine percent from $8.82 billion last year and below consensus estimates of $8.09 billion for the quarter.

In other words, another tough quarter for Sprint. Said Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett: “The results illustrate the enormous challenge facing Sprint. Many of the cost cuts have already been taken. Their best exclusive handset has been deployed. And still, the rock rolls downhill.”

This morning, Cisco (CSCO) announced plans to purchase the software-as-a-service security vendor for roughly $183 million in a bid to expand its Web security portfolio both on-premises and in the cloud. Among ScanSafe’s clients: Google (GOOG), AT&T (T) and Sprint (S).

“With the acquisition of ScanSafe, Cisco is executing on our vision to build a borderless network security architecture that combines network and cloud-based services for advanced security enforcement,” said Tom Gillis, vice president and general manager of Cisco’s Security Technology Business Unit, in a statement. “Cisco will provide customers the flexibility to choose the deployment model that best suits their organization and deliver anytime, anywhere protection against Web-based threats.”

Expected to close in the second quarter of 2010, the deal–Cisco’s sixth acquisition of the year–comes on the heels of the Barracuda Networks acquisition of security SAAS vendor Purewire.

Not the most aggressive price considering that Amazon (AMZN) is currently offering the Pre, the Pixi’s elder, more robust sibling, for $99 (see image below; click to enlarge) with a two-year contract as well. Remember, the Pixi has a slower processor and a smaller screen than the Pre. And it doesn’t support Wi-Fi. Has some neat back covers though!

Worse, Pixi requires $200 to get out the door, and statistically speaking, there will be quite a few people who will fail to cash in that second $100 rebate. As I noted back when the Pre launched with a similar rebate program, redemption rates for offers like these typically run around 58 percent, thanks to customers who either find the process too cumbersome or forget about it entirely.

This can end up being quite lucrative for the issuing company. Consider this: In 2004, TiVo (TIVO) promised customers a $100 mail-in rebate within six to eight weeks of the purchase of a new DVR. About 50,000 of the 104,000 eligible for that offer failed to take advantage of it. That saved TiVo about $5 million.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm Pre: $199 After a $100 Rebate We Hope You Lose

That works out to $24 per share in cash for iPCS. This is a 34 percent premium over the company’s closing price of $17.88 per share on Friday, but perhaps a small price to pay for putting an end to the two iPCS lawsuits–one over Sprint’s acquisition of Virgin Mobile, the other over its investment in Wimax operator Clearwire.

As a result of the iPCS deal, Sprint (S) will no longer be required to divest its iDen network in certain iPCS (IPCS) territories, though iPCS had won a court ruling requiring Sprint to do so. Now, Sprint will not only keep those assets, it can peddle their services to some 700,000 iPCS customers in a territory that covers 81 markets in seven states.

Below, the official announcement:

Sprint Nextel to Acquire Wireless Affiliate iPCS, Inc.

More than 700,000 PCS Wireless Users and 270,000 Wholesale Customers to Become Sprint Direct Subscribers
Extends Company’s Direct Service Territory to an Additional 12.6 Million People
Sprint Ends Plan to Divest iDEN Network Assets in Certain Midwestern States Pending Transaction Close
OVERLAND PARK, Kan. & SCHAUMBURG, Ill.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Oct. 19, 2009– Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) and iPCS, Inc. (NASDAQ: IPCS) today announced an agreement for Sprint Nextel to acquire iPCS for approximately $831 million, including the assumption of $405 million of net debt. This transaction value represents 6.4x projected 2010 Adjusted Earnings Before Income, Taxes, and Depreciation (“Adjusted EBITDA”*). Sprint expects to achieve approximately $30 million of synergies annually in the transaction and expects the transaction to be free cash flow accretive to Sprint in 2010.

Under the terms of the agreement, Sprint Nextel will commence a cash tender offer to acquire all of iPCS’ outstanding common shares for $24.00 per share. This price per share represents a 34 percent premium to iPCS’ closing stock price as of October 16, 2009. The agreement also requires a minimum of a majority of the shares outstanding (on a fully-diluted basis) to be tendered in the offer. Following completion of the tender offer, any remaining shares of iPCS will be acquired in a cash merger at the same price per share. Shareholders with approximately 9.5 percent of the outstanding common shares of iPCS have already agreed to tender their shares pursuant to the tender offer and to vote their shares in favor of the merger.

The acquisition is subject to customary regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions, and is expected to be completed either late in the fourth quarter of 2009 or early 2010. As part of the agreement, Sprint Nextel and iPCS will seek an immediate stay of all pending litigation between the parties with a final resolution to become effective upon closing of the acquisition.

As a result, Sprint will no longer be required to divest its iDEN network in certain iPCS territories and will terminate its previously announced divestiture process pending closing of the transaction.

iPCS’s services are sold under the Sprint brand name and in Sprint-branded stores. Because of the nearly seamless marketing and sales relationship between Sprint and iPCS, customers should not experience any change in their service as a result of this transaction.

“Acquiring iPCS brings added value to Sprint by expanding our direct customer base, growing our direct coverage area and simplifying our business operations,” said Dan Hesse, CEO of Sprint Nextel. “Customers in iPCS territory will see a seamless transition and continue to enjoy a superb customer experience.”

“We are very pleased to have reached this agreement with Sprint Nextel. Given the increasingly competitive landscape, we believe this is an opportune time to provide our shareholders with a liquidity event at a very attractive price. iPCS shareholders will receive a significant and immediate premium for their shares and our customers will continue to receive the same excellent service from the same dedicated people who provide that service today,” said Timothy M. Yager, president and CEO of iPCS. “We look forward to working with the Sprint Nextel team to ensure a smooth completion of the transaction and transition in the coming months.”

You see, Palm (PALM) defines units sold as products sold to on-the-street customers or to resellers like Best Buy (BBY) and Amazon.com (AMZN). Which means that Palm can report a unit sold while it’s still sitting at inventory at various retail outlets. In other words, a Pre sold is not necessarily a Pre activated. As Eller notes, that’s problematic.

“We have been perplexed by a disconnect between PALM’s device units sold and our estimates of store level sell through,” Eller writes. “According to PALM’s reported sell through, inventory increased by 13k units and since the ‘vast majority’ of both the device units shipped and the device units sold were units of the Pre, there couldn’t be an inventory problem. The gap between the two is only 13k.”

Continuing, Eller adds a cautionary note: “However, since the company recognizes revenue on sell in to the channel and the company defines device units sold as units that have been shipped from Sprint (their primary customer) to either customers or second tier distributors, PALM could offer investors a high number of units shipped but still have a glut of inventory in the channel. We believe that channel inventory is currently about 11 weeks, which we believe will pressure reorder rates and make it more difficult to sell high ASP products going forward.”

An 11-week glut of inventory in the channel? If that’s the case, it’s certainly cause for concern, more so because many investors are evidently unaware that this is even a possibility. “[Palm’s definition of sold] does not appear to be understood by investors,” Eller notes. “We polled several of the investors who attended the Boston road show lunch and each was under the impression that sell through translated into customer activations. How can this be?”

Good question. Palm and Sprint (S) investors both might want to pay a bit more attention to Sprint’s 10-k in the future.

I’ve asked Palm for comment and will update this post when it responds.

UPDATE: This just in from Palm:

“The sell-through data we post reflects carriers’ sales to their customers. For example, Sprint customers include consumers who buy in a Sprint store, and Sprint retail partners such as Best Buy and RadioShack. We rely on our wireless carriers to provide us with sell-through data, and we note this fact in our 10Q.”

[Image credit: Flickr/Spintar]