To see Peter Kafka’s liveblog of Apple’s Q3 Earnings Call, click here.

The economy is in recession, consumer spending is down and the PC market is in the worst decline since the Great Dark Times of 2001.

And Apple is doing just fine.

After market close Tuesday, the company reported earnings that crushed the Street’s estimates into a fine iPod-white dust. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimated that Apple (AAPL) would earn $1.16 per share on $8.16 billion in sales. Instead, it earned $1.35 on $8.34 billion for a profit of $1.23 billion.

Apple shipped 2.6 million Macs in the quarter just as NPD forecast and it sold 5.2 million iPhones. iPod sales were down seven percent to 10.2 million. Gross margin was 36.3 percent, up 34.8 percent year-over-year, and international sales accounted for 44 percent of revenue during the period. For its fourth quarter, Apple expects to earn $1.18 to $1.23 per share on revenue of $8.7 billion to $8.9 billion.

“We’re making our most innovative products ever and our customers are responding,” Apple CEO Steve Jobs said in a statement. “We’re thrilled to have sold over 5.2 million iPhones during the quarter and users have downloaded more than 1.5 billion applications from our App Store in its first year.”

Clearly, business is good in Cupertino, recession be damned. Apple shares rose two percent to 154.68 in after-hours trading on the news.

The global PC market will suffer a rare decline this year with shipments expected to slip four percent to 287.3 million units in 2009, from 299.2 million in 2008 (click on chart to enlarge). Not since the dot-com bust of 2001 have PC sales been so slow or their outlook so grim, says iSuppli, the research outfit charting the market’s collapse.

“An annual decline in unit shipments is highly unusual in the PC market,” says Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, for iSuppli. “Even in weak years, PC unit shipments typically rise by single-digit percentages. The last decline–in 2001–was a 5.1 decrease in unit shipments due to the extraordinary impact of the Dot-Com bust, which caused inflated IT spending levels from the previous years to collapse.”

Driving the gloomy forecast this time around: The econalypse, of course, but also, dwindling demand for desktop computers. iSuppli expects an 18.1 percent drop in desktop shipments, from 151.9 million in 2008 to 124.4 million in 2009.

Grim, I know. Still, there is a bit of good news in the report. Notebook PC shipments will rise 11.7 percent to 155.97 million units in in 2009, exceeding desktop shipments for the first time ever.

That’s the word from Gartner, which back in March was claiming the decline would be just 3.8 percent. The research outfit said Tuesday that it expects tech spending to fall to $3.2 trillion this year, down from $3.4 trillion in 2008. And it sees all four major segments of IT–hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications–suffering revenue declines in 2009 (click on chart below).

“The forecast decline in spending growth for the hardware and software segments in 2009 has almost stabilized, and only minor downward revisions have been made to these forecasts this quarter,” said Gartner’s Richard Gordon. “However, the full impact of the global recession on the IT services and telecommunications sectors is still emerging, and forecast growth in these areas has been further reduced significantly.”

That said, the company sees a rebound of 2.3 percent in 2010.

Gartner (IT) is the latest research firm to temper its projections for information technology spending this year in light of the ever-souring economy. Last week Forrester (FORR) lowered its expectations for 2009, saying the first two quarters of the year were worse than expected and that the decline will carry out for the rest of the year. It did, however, say we can expect a rebound in 2010.

We’ve hit bottom. Finally.

In its latest “US and Global IT Market Outlook” report, Forrester (FORR) says information technology spending in 2009 will fall 10.6 percent in 2009. And while that’s far worse than the three percent decline the research outfit forecast at the beginning of the year, it’s also the nadir of this particular crisis, and we are at the beginning of a rebound that will gain momentum in 2010.

According to Forrester, anyway.

“While Q1 2009 saw a scary drop in purchases in the U.S. tech market, ironically that is good news for the long run and we expect to see a stronger rebound sooner,” Forrester analyst Andrew Bartels said in a statement. “The big drops are not precursors to further declines; rather, we think they are evidence of a temporary pause in U.S. tech purchases, which we expect to start recovering in Q4 as businesses realize that they overreacted in the first quarter.”

So after a year of gloom and doom, things are beginning to look up.

Hewlett-Packard’s second-quarter financials may have been in line with forecasts, but they were troubling nonetheless. A number of analysts predicted that the company might report better-than-expected earnings. Sadly, it did not. HP’s net income for the period fell 17 percent to $1.7 billion, or 70 cents per share. Excluding one-time items, the company earned 86 cents a share, compared with a profit of 87 cents a share in the same period last year. The results include charges of 2 cents a share related to a patent dispute. Sales fell three percent to $27.4 billion. Every division of the company, save one, reported a decline in revenue. The lone highlight, Services, posted an increase, but that was due primarily to HP’s acquisition of EDS. The grim details:

Enterprise Storage and Servers: down 28 percent
Software: down 15 percent
Personal Systems Group: down 19 percent (though it claims the leading market position in PCs in every region)
Imaging and Printing Group: down 23 percent
Financial Services: down 6 percent
Services: up 99 percent

Clearly, the decline in consumer and business spending is weighing heavy on HP (HPQ) and will continue to do so. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be approximately flat to down two percent sequentially. And it says full-year revenue will slip approximately four to five percent from the prior-year period.

UPDATE: During a conference call to discuss earnings, HP’s leadership said the company will sack about two percent of the workforce in the months ahead as it looks to trim costs. 6,400 employees will lose their jobs as a result.

No area of technology will be immune to the decline. Hardest hit: the computer hardware sector, which is expected to see spending fall 15 percent to $324.3 billion. Seems even the promise of government stimulus packages won’t be enough to offset this ugly near-term outlook. Said Gordon, “Economic conditions have continued to erode business confidence in all regions. There is a continued general sense of uncertainty in the market and a lack of clarity of actual amount of toxic debt out there. IT organizations will look for ways to shift spending from capital expenditures to operational efficiencies.”

And it’s almost certain to do just that, judging from Relsys’s pedigree. The company has been around for some 20 years and it counts 21 of the top 50 pharma companies among its customers. As Redmonk analyst James Governor notes, this is a savvy acquisition and one that positions Oracle well to take advantage of future Obama administration health care spending. “Oracle didn’t get to where it is today without knowing which way the wind is blowing, and it’s not exactly hard right now to know where the rest of the US Government’s money will go, after its blown most of its wad on financial services bailouts,” Governor said. “Healthcare and Utilities are both set for significant investment. Oracle was already in healthcare, but the Relsys acquisition takes it to the heart of concerns around drug provenance and compliance. Regulatory compliance remains one of the best ways to sell software–nobody wants to do it, but everyone has to. It’s like flossing your teeth–if you could license an application to do that for you, you would, right?”

Clearly, the global slowdown in tech spending is taking its toll on the company, though CEO Mark Hurd insists otherwise. Said Hurd, “HP is a market leader executing well in a tough market.”

Analysts begged to differ. “PC revenue declined 19 percent, server storage declined 18 percent, year over year,” Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brent Bracelin told Reuters. “Their printer hardware business declined more than 30 percent, year over year. The pace of the erosion in hardware was more severe than we expected….They did a good job of managing expenses in the quarter, but as you think about the fundamentals here going forward, they lowered their guidance from a revenue and profitability standpoint, and certainly we don’t have a ton of confidence, given the pace of erosion in their business. There could be further erosion from here.”

The fourth was Yahoo’s first money-losing quarter since 2002, and the first time its revenue declined since the fourth quarter of 2001.

Said incoming CEO Carol Bartz, “The company also made important investments while aggressively managing costs, leaving us better positioned to weather the economic downturn and emerge stronger when advertiser spending improves. We have work to do, but I am excited by Yahoo!’s opportunities, and encouraged by the tremendous innovation and momentum I’ve seen since joining the company as CEO.”

Here’s the official release:

Yahoo! Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Financial Results

“Despite the challenging economic environment, Yahoo! delivered adjusted operating cash flow above the midpoint of guidance for the fourth quarter,” said Yahoo! Chief Executive Officer Carol Bartz. “The company also made important investments while aggressively managing costs, leaving us better positioned to weather the economic downturn and emerge stronger when advertiser spending improves. We have work to do, but I am excited by Yahoo!’s opportunities, and encouraged by the tremendous innovation and momentum I’ve seen since joining the company as CEO.”

Fourth Quarter 2008 Financial Results

• Revenues were $1,806 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, a 1 percent decrease compared to $1,832 million for the same period of 2007.
• Marketing services revenues were $1,594 million for the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to $1,590 million for the same period of 2007.
• Marketing services revenues from Owned and Operated sites were $1,063 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, a 3 percent increase compared to $1,035 million for the same period of 2007.
• Marketing services revenues from Affiliate sites were $531 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, a 4 percent decrease compared to $555 million for the same period of 2007.
• Fees revenues were $212 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, a 12 percent decrease compared to $242 million for the same period of 2007.
• Revenues excluding traffic acquisition costs (“TAC”) were $1,375 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, a 2 percent decrease compared to $1,403 million for the same period of 2007.
• Operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $278 million compared to operating income of $191 million for the same period of 2007.
• Operating loss before depreciation, amortization, and stock-based compensation expense for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $60 million compared to operating income before depreciation, amortization, and stock-based compensation expense of $527 million for the same period of 2007.
• Adjusted operating income before depreciation, amortization, and stock-based compensation expense for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $542 million, excluding restructuring charges of $108 million for severance, facilities, and other restructuring costs; a goodwill impairment charge of $488 million related to our international segment; and incremental costs of $7 million incurred for outside advisors related to Microsoft’s proposals to acquire all or a part of the Company, other strategic alternatives, including the Google agreement, the proxy contest, and related litigation defense (collectively, the “strategic alternatives and related matters”).
• Cash flow from operating activities for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $321 million, a 48 percent decrease compared to $622 million for the same period of 2007.
• Free cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $219 million, a 34 percent decrease compared to $330 million for the same period of 2007.
• Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $303 million or $0.22 per diluted share compared to net income of $206 million or $0.15 per diluted share for the same period of 2007.
• Non-GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $238 million or $0.17 per diluted share compared to non-GAAP net income of $184 million or $0.13 per diluted share for the same period of 2007.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Carol Bartz: The ALL CAPS CEO
• Yahoo Investors: We Would Have Preferred Steve Jobs…

Goldman Sachs published its “Americas: 2009 Software Outlook” report today and it’s as dismal and ugly a forecast as you’d expect, given the current economic climate.

“The worst of the IT-spending slowdown likely remains in front of us, as we start the clock on slashed 2009 budgets,” Goldman said in the report. “We forecast 0 percent revenue growth for our group, below consensus at 5 percent, and 1 percent earnings growth, below Street at 2 percent.”

Beyond that, the firm forsees an eight percent decline in developed economy tech capital investment, with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), SAP (SAP), Symantec (SYMC), CA (CA)–the so called Big 5–treading water until the economy recovers. Said Goldman, “We expect the Big 5 software companies…to benefit from more defensive revenue streams due to critical nature of functions, ’stickier’ maintenance, stronger negotiating leverage, and a likely spending consolidation to larger vendors. Hence, we assume 0 percent growth for this group in 2009.”

Ugly. Could have been worse, though.

Clearly, the slowdown in the U.S. economy has reduced demand for electronics goods and, by extension, the chips on which they run. Said SIA president George Scalise, “The worldwide economic crisis is having an impact on demand for semiconductors, but to a lesser degree than some other major industry sectors.”

Right now, anyway. According to Gartner (IT), chipmakers haven’t yet seen the worst of this downturn. “In the last quarter of 2008, market conditions deteriorated significantly, and as the fourth quarter has progressed, many vendors have issued updated guidance for the quarter, reflecting weakening market conditions,” commented Gartner analyst Andrew Norwood. “Unfortunately for vendors, 2009 is going to be considerably worse. Some have compared the precipitous decline in semiconductor demand to that of the 2001 ‘dot-com’ bubble. However, unlike 2001, this economic downturn is much more broad-based and not limited primarily to the technology sector.”

A disheartening prediction. And to make matters worse, Bailey speculates that Apple (AAPL) won’t unveil any new product categories at MacWorld come January, and because of that won’t see the sort of near-term pop it typically experiences after the introduction of a compelling new product. Said Bailey, “[The] nearer-term outlook is less positive, as it now looks unlikely that Apple will launch a new product category at MacWorld in early January, taking away a potential catalyst for the shares and causing Apple to try to generate demand in a tough environment without the benefit of a new offering in the first part of 2009.”

Apple shares closed at $94.75, down 3.58 percent for the day on the news.

And that’s exactly what consumers are looking for, according to Google (GOOG).

“We’ve seen quite an increase in queries for things like discounts and bargains and things like that,” Google CEO Eric Schmidt told “Meet The Press” this past weekend. “And we know that shoppers are using the Internet to get better pricing.”