Kara began Monday with some of the hard facts from the pending AOL-TimeWarner (TWX) split. Stock issued for the post-spinoff AOL places the company’s total implied value at around $3 billion. Also on the list of stuff from 1994 being jettisoned from tech companies is the original instant messenger, ICQ. Kara reported that AOL seeks to shed the brand in an effort to keep the larger ship afloat. Over at Yahoo (YHOO), Kara opened the lid on CEO Carol Bartz’s shifting of top execs. In Silicon Valley’s house of cards, everyone watches out for a shuffle.

Over at Digital Daily, John brought some hard numbers to the stresses being felt by AT&T’s (T) 3G network thanks to a certain fruit-flavored smartphone. It seems that the iPhone is largely responsible for the 2,000 percent increase in data traffic in the San Francisco Bay Area compared with a year ago. (Weekend Update doesn’t claim sole responsibility.) Keeping up with layoff news these days is almost a full-time job. It’s a good thing Paczkowski is on the case. This week, Sony-Ericsson let roughly 2,000 employees go. The firm plans to shutter whole offices in both the United States and abroad. John finished strong with a whole slew of posts about the forthcoming Google (GOOG) Chrome OS, which was released in a developer’s beta this week. Next year, the good kids may be getting their stockings filled with Chrome rather than Apples.

You can never tell what MediaMemo will have up its sleeve in a given week, and this one was no exception. Peter came in early with reports that Wired magazine is another publication betting on a certain tablet. Wired may pave the way for other Condé Nast publication e-editions. From the department of “Hey, it looks like it worked for them,” a couple of music giants will release a Hulu-like service for music videos. No word yet on whether the Internet killed the video star. Peter closed it out this week with the fizzle that will be Oprah’s broadcast career. The talk-show-host-turned-deity will end her broadcast career in 2011, but may not be sorely missed by CBS, according to MediaMemo. Everyone is pretty torn up about Gail leaving though.

Personal Technology went a little off the reservation this week and covered an intriguing specialty gadget with a very specific target audience. The reading aid for the visually impaired is unusual for many reasons, not the least of which is that its branded Intel (INTC) both on the inside and outside. The reader uses a downward-facing camera to read text and translate it directly to speech. Walt was pleased with the device on the whole, though he encountered some bugs and a somewhat steep learning curve that may be a function of the novel nature of the product. Over at Mossberg’s Mailbox, the lead question this week was about data loss. Once the geek shudders stopped, Walt let the reader know that there are many alternatives to Apple’s (AAPL) Time Capsule drives, and the integrated Time Machine option is one useful alternative. At Mossberg Solution, Katie won a fight with a Pixi and brought us the blow-by-blow account. The cheap-and-cheerful version of the Palm (PALM) Pre features a stripped-down price. That savings came at too high a performance cost, said Katie. She praised Palms webOS, but came down on the side of spending a little more to get the Pre.

Stay tuned and check back often. Weekend Update will be back next week as long as we can make it out for the Black Friday sales with all our fingers and toes.

The closures, which will see Sony Ericsson’s North American headquarters moved to Atlanta, will result in the loss of some 2,000 jobs. This a little more than a year after the joint venture’s last big round of layoffs, part of a companywide cost-cutting plan that also left about 2,000 people unemployed.

“The commission has endorsed the local sale of the iPhone and the launch of its service within the limits of the law,” said Lee Tae-hee, a spokesman of the Korea Communications Commission. “If Apple includes location based-related details as a form of an agreement to its strategic partners such as KT, Apple’s iPhone can give location-related services here.”

Great news for Apple (AAPL). The South Korean market is a robust one, and analysts say that with the right carrier partner, Cupertino could be looking at sales over the first year ranging from 500,000 to two million. That said, they note that competing with the likes of Samsung and LG on their home turf won’t be easy. Between them, they control about 70 percent of the South Korean handset market.

“There seem to be a lot of people waiting for iPhones to go on sale here but it will not be easy for Apple to crack the Korean market as Samsung and LG already dominate the market with competitive phones,” said Jae Lee, analyst at Daiwa Securities in Seoul. “It will be difficult for Apple to steal market share significantly from the Korean makers in the short term but the iPhone could still be a threat to Samsung and LG in the long term.”

When the iPhone finally does arrive at market in South Korea, it will likely be with KT (formerly known as Korea Telecom) as a carrier partner. As Dan Butterfield over at iPhonAsia notes, KT CFO Yeon-hak Kim suggested as much this past summer. “Apple iPhone will be in our smartphone line-up,” he said in August. “iPhone will help to expand the smartphone market and will contribute to increasing the ARPU (average revenue per user).”

KT officials are telling the Korea Times that they’re looking at a November launch date. “KT has been in talks with Apple to introduce iPhones,” said a KT official. “Sometime in November, the latest iPhone model dubbed as ‘iPhone 3GS’ and its previous model will be commercialized. KT and Apple will decide on the coverage of location-based services.”

“There’s room for three to five players in this space. We don’t have to beat each other to prosper.”

– Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein

Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein likes to say smart-phone makers “don’t have to beat each other to prosper,” but it’s beginning to look like they–or, rather, Palm–might have to. Because while the Pre may have put Palm (PALM) back in the game, it’s not clear how long it can keep it there. With competition in the emerging smart-phone market ratcheting up as we head into the holidays, some analysts are predicting that Palm’s quarterly sales may decline–sharply.

“[Palm’s] guidance of a sequential decline in revenues in the second quarter implies that Pre sales are not off to the races,” Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf wrote in a research note today. “Although Palm did not say what Pre sales were in the quarter, they appear to have been around 600,000 units, about 100,000 above our estimate. Palm indicated that revenues could fall to $240 million to $270 million in the second quarter, a number that implies that Pre sales could fall to 500,000 units vs. our previous estimate of 750,000 units.”

Interesting that Wolf pegs Pre sales as being above his estimate, since Palm hasn’t yet broken that number out. Indeed, in a conference call with analysts yesterday the company was so quick to dodge questions about Pre sales that I assumed it’s not an impressive number. But if the company really did ship 600,000 units as Wolf contends, that would suggest it’s doing pretty well at market, though certainly not as well as the Apple (AAPL) iPhone or Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry. Odd then, that Palm wouldn’t disclose a hard sales number.

“The Pre and its siblings running on Palm’s WebOS software platform appear to be a serious contender in the smartphone market,” Wolf concludes. “But it would be premature at this point to declare it a winner in view of the fact that the smartphone market will shortly be overrun with new phones from Motorola and others running on the Android platform as well as new BlackBerry models in time for the holiday selling season.”

Sure, there might be room for three to five players in the smart-phone space, as Rubinstein claims. But that space is currently occupied at least seven players–Apple, RIM, Nokia (NOK), Motorola (MOT), Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Palm. Which means somebody’s got to go. So while Palm might not have to beat anyone to prosper, it may have to, to survive.

Interestingly, HTC recently said that its 2009 revenue would decline, after earlier forecasting a 10 percent increase. The reason for the fall? Delays in product launches.

Coincidence? Tough to say. One thing’s certain, though: If the Lancaster has been delayed or ends up being scrapped, it’s bad news for HTC, which will soon face increased competition from Motorola (MOT), Sony Ericsson and other handset vendors developing phones for Google’s (GOOG) Android.

This morning the struggling handset maker tapped Nordberg, executive vice president of Ericsson, as its new president and CEO. He’ll replace Dick Komiyama, who has apparently decided to retire, though he is smack dab in the middle of implementing the restructuring program that was intended to reinvigorate Sony Ericsson.

“The Sony Ericsson transformation program I began over a year ago is more than half way completed, and I am pleased with what we have achieved so far,” Komiyama said in a statement. “I believe it is the right time for me to begin transferring the leadership of the company to a person who is able to complete the transformation program and lead Sony Ericsson through its next phase of development.”

The right time, indeed. Over the past few years, Sony Ericsson has been overtaken in the high-end handset market by Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL) and Samsung and beaten into submission in the low-end market by Nokia (NOK). Among the top five cellphone vendors, Sony Ericsson saw the steepest drop in sales from the first quarter, down 40 percent year-over-year, and continued losses at the joint venture have prompted some to speculate that it could be broken up.

That’s clearly not the case at the moment, though it could be if Nordberg doesn’t manage to speed up that transformation program. Said Nordberg: “Sony Ericsson has taken leadership in the music phones and the camera phones with the Cybershot and the Walkman, but there are some weaknesses in the smartphone segment and we need to restore that.”

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates that Apple (AAPL), though it is only the fifth-largest handset vendor, claimed nearly a third of handset industry profits in the first half of 2009 (see table below; click to enlarge).

“Our analysis indicates that Apple’s iPhone accounted for only 8% of handset industry revenues but 32% of industry operating profits in 1H09,” Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients today. “Even if we exclude the operating losses generated by Motorola and Sony Ericsson, Apple still accounted for 25% of industry profits. iPhone’s success is akin to Apple’s position in the PC industry–where the company enjoys an estimated 25% of industry profits, despite capturing only 6% of industry revenues.”

Quite an achievement considering that the iPhone is just two years old. How did Apple manage it? According to Sacconaghi, Apple succeeded by claiming a first-mover advantage in an expanding high-end market.

“With the iPhone and its Apps Store, Apple has established a formidable smartphone ecosystem, which history suggests is very difficult to overcome,” the analyst explains. “In fact, Apple has the potential to become a de-facto standard of sorts in the consumer smartphone market, much like it became in the portable media player market with iPods, due in large part to its first mover advantage and tight software and hardware integration.

“We believe that over time,” Sacconaghi continues, “single function standalone handheld devices (portable music players, digital cameras, navigation systems, etc.) will become increasingly converged. Apple’s estimated installed base of 75+ million individual iPod and iTunes users provides customers with a seamless migration path to a fuller featured, higher-end integrated device.”

Though Sacconaghi believes Apple should be able to grow faster than the overall handset market without materially lowering prices, he suggests a lower price point might give a signifigant bump to its iPhone business. “We believe Apple will ultimately need to lower price (and margins over time) to expand its addressable market opportunity, including offering a lower-cost, non-data plan iPhone,” he concludes.

Now we know why Ericsson declined to offer a specific business outlook for 2009 when it last reported earnings. That said, the company seems to believe that the effects of global recession on its business are limited so far. Investments in wireless networks apparently continue apace, econalypse be damned.

“I think we have had a decent start of the year,” CEO Carl-Henric Svanberg said during a conference call with analysts. “We continue to gain market share. We had several strategic wins, we’re doing good in managed–both networks and managed services. There are some but still limited effects from the economic recession and still I think this is not the time to be too precise and predicting but realize that this is a very unusual time.”

Microsoft and Verizon are reportedly discussing a touchscreen multimedia cellphone that could launch on the carrier’s network in 2010. The project, code-named “Pink,” will apparently involve some ungodly combination of Windows Mobile and Zune software. That code name is particularly interesting in light of recent reports that Microsoft (MSFT) has requested proposals for a new ad campaign for a mysterious mobile application by the same name.

Beyond that, details are slim. Representatives for Verizon (VZ)–which already has six Windows Mobile touchscreen devices in its lineup–refused to comment on the report. And Microsoft is apparently holding to the party line, insisting that its mobile strategy is to provide a software solution, not devices. Consider these remarks from Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer at a recent McGraw-Hill (MHP) media conference:

With Windows Mobile, we want to permit a range of hardware innovation, and yet, still have a pretty good experience end-to-end, with good applications, and we want the ability for software developers to target both a very high-end and a lower range or mid-range phone.

And the ability to scale up and down, to work with multiple hardware vendors, to get a range of competition and innovation and price competition amongst the hardware guys is a big asset. It is certainly what our strategy is. It’s very different than Apple’s, and it’s very different than BlackBerry’s. But, unless you assume Apple and BlackBerry are going to sell the lion’s share of most phones … which I don’t, because I think they’re going to get a lot of competition from the Samsungs, LGs, Sony Ericssons, Taiwanese. I mean, there are a lot of guys who are going to be in that phone business.

I think that the play for us is to permit broad innovation at many price points, with a very good and very feature-rich, in terms of applications, experience. If people want keyboard input, that’s great. If they want touch, that’s great. If they, you know, want voice, we need to give them a range of modalities for interaction. And that’s the direction we’re headed with Windows Mobile 6.5 and into the future.

Ah yes, Windows Mobile 6.5. When are we going to see that again?

Sony (SNE) has no plans to divest its stake in Sony Ericsson, but it is divesting itself of something else: the executive charged with overseeing the joint venture. Najmi Jarwala, the president of Sony Ericsson’s operations in North America, is leaving the company at the end of March. Why? “To pursue other career opportunities.”

“It has been an incredibly rewarding time for me and we have achieved a lot together in North America,” Jarwala said in a statement. “We have introduced an increasing number of new products, grown market share, built operator relationships and, perhaps most importantly, have laid the foundation for North America to play a key role in the long term growth and success of Sony Ericsson.”

An incredibly rewarding time. Really?

An interesting choice of words coming as it does just days after Sony Ericsson said it expects to post an ugly loss for its first quarter–its fourth consecutive one–amid waning customer demand for its largely unexciting handsets.

It’s also apparently raised Palm’s profile as an acquisition target. Says Abramsky, “Given Pre’s and webOS’s competitive advantages and the rising importance of the Smartphone market, we foresee Palm’s rising attractiveness as an acquisition candidate.” The companies most likely to consider it as such: RIM (RIMM), Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK), Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL).

Quite an endorsement–especially for a company that hasn’t yet launched the product capable of working the restorative magic Abramsky describes.

Palm shares are up well over two percent this morning at $8.07.

On April 1, 2009, that will all change. The Korea Communications Commission today agreed to lift the WIPI requirement, opening the South Korean market to the iPhone, BlackBerry and other devices to which it had been effectively closed. “Mobile-phone operators have been required to use the WIPI mobile platform on their handsets, but considering global industry trends toward the use of general-purpose mobile operating systems, we concluded that there was a need to allow carriers the freedom to decide whether to use WIPI or not,” Shin Yong-sub, the director of KCC’s policy bureau, told the Korea Times. “Consumers will also be able to choose from a wider variety of products and benefit from increased price competition from handset makers.”

Top among those products, the iPhone, which carriers K Telecom and KTF are both said to be interested in adding to their lineups.