Never mind that it faces some particularly long, historic odds. That it has launched a new bet-the-company product in the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years, for example. That with the Pre, it is challenging Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, one of the most successful mobile phones in history. That it’s competing in a market crowded by the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) and Nokia (NOK), which shipped an astonishing 468 million phones in calendar 2008.

Never mind all that. Because, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) has the “special sauce”–the means of orchestrating a second act, perhaps even one of Jobsian proportions.

“Following a period of decline and facing oblivion, we believe Palm has the potential for a remarkable smartphone turnaround,” Abramsky writes in a lengthy research note on the wireless industry that I mentioned here yesterday as well. “With its new strategy, WebOS product line and under the direction of a new management team headed by ex-Apple executive Jon Rubinstein, Palm (like RIM and Apple) is, in our opinion, well-positioned for smartphone leadership.”

Abramsky sees a promising future: “Our outlook calls for Palm to quickly recover, growing from an estimated 1.3 percent data-centric smartphone shipment market share (0.2 percent TAM) or 2.2 million units in calendar 2009 to 3.6 percent share (1.3 percent of TAM) or 18.2 million units in calendar 2012. Targeting the PIM-centric segment of the Palm legacy, Palm in our view faces near-term risks, but has the ’special sauce.’” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

And what, exactly, is that? The stuff that goes between the two all-beef patties and the lettuce and cheese?

Not quite. Abramsky’s idea of special sauce includes vertical integration, “controlling the end-to-end smartphone software and hardware platform, a ground-up developed smartphone OS platform with unique innovations like multitasking, Synergy (user data integration), developer-friendly SDK, and compelling and clever hardware/software designs [that] all combine to offer a unique, iconic smartphone experience, differentiated from incumbent vendors.”

A hell of an ingredient list. But it’s one that the Pre and Palm’s webOS largely deliver on–despite some drawbacks. And if Palm can improve on that list, the company should have little trouble wooing back disenfranchised users and winning new ones.

Abramsky, again: “The huge positive reception to the launch of Palm’s Pre, its first WebOS device–despite the already broad awareness of iPhone–illustrates pent-up demand for innovative, non-intimidating smartphone user experiences. The accolades for Pre also show Palm has the potential to provide that rare iconic smartphone experience, above competitors, some incumbents and in the company of RIM and Apple.”

Which is pretty much what Palm has set out to do, as CEO Jon Rubinstein noted in the company’s last earnings call. “There is room for three to five players in this space,” he said. “We don’t have to beat one another to prosper.”

You do have to execute, though. And execution hasn’t historically been one of Palm’s strong suits. Perhaps it will improve with the addition of that special sauce Abramsky’s talking about.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything

In a research note issued this week, Canaccord analyst Peter Misek speculates that Apple (AAPL), which recently debuted an iPhone capable of shooting and editing video, plans to bring the same functionality to the iPod.

“We believe Apple is now targeting to enter the low-end camcorder market by adding this functionality into its iPod lineup,” he writes. “…We believe Apple will unveil various iPod versions with camcorder functionality. We believe this will drive sales not only for traditional MP3 players, but as a new competitive dynamic to the lower end camcorder market that is now dominated by Flip line of digital camcorders.”

Misek sees such a move giving a nice boost to iPod sales, which, as Apple revealed earlier this week, have been declining a bit. “On anticipation of this we have markedly raised our iPod growth assumptions and have raised our iPod shipment forecast from 50 million to 65 million units.”

And what of Cisco (CSCO)? What would the transformation of the iPod into a point-and-shoot camcorder mean for the Flip? Certainly not good things. Who’d want to carry two devices for music and video capture when they could carry just one?

“You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it–If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they’re going to buy.”

– Elevation Partners founder Roger McNamee

Roger McNamee’s hyperbolic predictions about iPhone-to-Pre conversion rates didn’t go over too well at Palm. Appalled by McNamee’s inflated, indecorous claims about its forthcoming smartphone, the handset maker on Monday filed a Free Writing Prospectus with the SEC that distances the company from McNamee’s claims and categorically refutes his your-next-iPhone-will-be-a-Pre foolishness. There are 10 “clarifications and corrections” in the prospectus, among them these two little gems:

5. With respect to the statements in the tenth paragraph of the transcript that the Palm Pre is “going to be a million times–well, not a million times–several times faster” than Apple, Inc.’s iPhone products and is “going to run rings around them on the web,” the Palm Pre is still under development and it is premature to state the speed at which the device accesses the web or the relative speed of the Palm Pre compared to the smartphone products of competitors.
 
8. The statement in the second paragraph of the article that “not one” person who bought an Apple, Inc. iPhone on the first shipment date “will still be using an iPhone a month” after the two-year anniversary of that day is an exaggerated prediction of consumer behavior pattern and is withdrawn.

Ouch. That was CRAZY talk, Roger.

An embarrassing retraction for McNamee and for Palm (PALM), which was understandably uncomfortable with the silly levels to which the investor raised expectations for the Pre. The next time McNamee appears on Bloomberg TV, he’ll be accompanied by two Pinkerton guys with tranq guns….

$500 fully subsidized with a plan! I said that is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine…. Right now we’re selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year, Apple is selling zero phones a year. In six months, they’ll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace and let’s see…what’s the expression? Let’s see how the competition goes.”

–Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, January 2007

“Apple’s iPhone 3G, introduced in July, is the only reason smartphone growth did not slow in September.” This according to Needham analyst Charles Wolf, who in a research note today points out that the nearly seven million iPhones Apple (AAPL) shipped during the three-month period ending September account for all of the sequential shipment growth in the quarter. Astonishing. The iPhone now represents about 16.6 percent of the entire smartphone market worldwide, second only to Nokia (NOK).

One phone. One, maybe two, carriers per market. Nearly 17 percent of the entire smartphone market worldwide in under two years. What was that you said again, Steve?

To make amends for the outage, Netflix plans to apply a 15 percent credit to billing statements of members whose DVD shipments were delayed.

A welcome turn of events after an ugly week that saw Netflix customers losing their patience and the company losing an estimated $1.8 to $3.6 million in revenue each day because of the disruption.