“The big steps we’ve been out and after for the last several years in search [have] not been achieved and you’d have to say that the future is speculative. We’ve been asked a lot whether we’re open to consolidating transactions in the area of search. The answer is yes and it’s unlikely that we would be the consolidator.”

– IAC CEO Barry Diller

If Barry Diller is looking for somewhere to unload IAC’s Ask.com search engine, he’d be wise to consider Microsoft–if he doesn’t have that in mind already. Analysts reflecting on Diller’s recent remarks about Ask’s “speculative future” say Microsoft is the most likely buyer if IAC (IACI) is truly serious about dumping the little search engine that couldn’t.

Ask, analysts note, has about four percent of the domestic search market, which would give Microsoft (MSFT) a nice little bump up from the 9.4 percent market share it currently claims. And it certainly wouldn’t hurt that a Microsoft acquisition would undoubtedly mean the end of Ask’s relationship with Google (GOOG).

“Right now, Microsoft wants share so they could pick up those points from Ask,” Colin Gillis, an analyst at Brigantine Advisors, told Reuters. “Plus it has a double impact since Google powers Ask’s paid search.”

Much has changed at Yahoo since May 17, 2006, the last time the company held an investor day gathering. In May 2006, Yahoo’s shares traded at about $30 and the company claimed 28.98 percent of the U.S. search market. Today, its stock is worth a little over $16 and its share of the search market has fallen to 18.8 percent.

Ugly declines, both of them. Fitting then, that Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz, speaking at the company’s first investor day gathering in three-and-a-half years, would describe the company’s future as “a journey back to respect.” “We are not here to wow you today,” Bartz said “We are here to intrigue you.”

What follows is a brief historical overview of Yahoo (YHOO)–“Yahoo was the big shining star, then wasn’t”–and then a redefinition of the company as that more intriguing entity to which Bartz referred earlier. “We are not a search company, we are not a display company,” she said. “We are a broad-based Internet company….We are the largest communications engine in the world.”

Communications engine? Sounds like a sneaky way of avoiding comparisons with Google (GOOG). Not that anyone makes them anymore.

Anyway, Bartz continues, playing up Yahoo’s scale, diversity of content and technology. “We combine amazing editorial with very sophisticated machine-learning,” she says. But what makes Yahoo most unique, says Bartz, is the company’s ability to learn from its mistakes. “We have fallen and we really want to get back up. If you haven’t had good times and bad times, you don’t know what you’re doing. We prefer the good times. We have passion to get back there. Today is the start of that.”

And speculative is an apt word for it. With just four percent share of the search market, according to comScore (SCOR), Ask has long been the inveterate fourth-place player in a contest increasingly dominated by Google (GOOG). And though it has certainly tried, Ask just can’t seem to make any headway. It isn’t fighting a losing battle, it’s fighting one that was lost long ago. No surprise then to hear that Diller is tiring of it.

Asked during an earnings call Tuesday if IAC (IACI) would consider selling the search engine, Diller said it most certainly would. “We’ve been asked a lot whether we’re open to consolidating transactions in the area of search. The answer is yes,” he said. “And, it is unlikely that we would be the consolidator.”

Obviously.

So Ask is for sale. The question now is who wants it?

New metrics from Web analytics firm StatCounter show Bing’s share of the U.S. search market in September falling to 8.5 percent from 9.6 percent in August. Its share of the global market declined as well, slipping to 3.25 percent from 3.58 percent.

Microsoft’s (MSFT) new search partner, Yahoo (YHOO), also suffered a decline. Its market share fell to 9.4 percent from 10.50 percent in the U.S. and to 4.37 percent from 4.84 abroad. Meanwhile, Google’s (GOOG) September share rose to 80 percent from 77.8 percent in the U.S. and to 90.54 percent from 90 percent globally. (See chart below; click to enlarge.)

“The trend has been downwards for Bing since mid August,” StatCounter CEO Aodhan Cullen said in a statement. “The wheels haven’t fallen off but the underlying trend must be a little worrying for Microsoft.”

Mmm, I doubt it. While a month of slight decline might herald the beginning of a trend, it certainly doesn’t guarantee one, especially in search, where surges and declines in market share are quite common. Furthermore, we haven’t yet seen search metrics from Nielsen, comScore (SCOR), and Hitwise. And all three showed Bing gaining share in August, a month that Statcounter claimed shows the beginning of a downward trend.

• Week ending June 6: 3.43 percent
• Week ending June 13: 4.57 percent
• Week ending June 20: 5.35 percent
• Week ending June 27: 6.63 percent

“Looking at the weekly percentage of U.S. searches for Bing, the search engine has grown at an average weekly rate of 25 percent for the month of June 2009,” Hitwise explains. “Adding in Live.com and MSN Search along with Bing, the combined search engines have grown at an average of 16 percent during June 2009. Bing grew faster than the three other prominent search engines for the month.”

Impressive. But sadly, not enough for Microsoft (MSFT) to make real headway. Because Bing actually ended up losing market share during June, slipping to 5.25 percent from the 5.64 percent it had in May (click on chart below). Meanwhile, Google (GOOG) gained share, rising to 74.04 percent from 73.66 percent in May. And Yahoo (YHOO) gained as well, starting out the month with a 15.55 percent share and ending it with 16.19 percent.

J.P. Morgan’s Imran Khan offered an early look at market researcher comScore’s May 2009 core search volume and market share metrics for the U.S. this afternoon (to be publicly released tomorrow) and they show what search metrics always seem to show these days: Google’s share of the domestic market growing at the expense of its rivals (click on tables below to enlarge).

According to comScore (SCOR), Google’s (GOOG) share of the domestic search market rose to 65 percent in May, up from 64.2 percent in April. Its core search volume grew 42.5 percent, far exceeding the 40.6 growth in posted in the month prior. Meanwhile, Yahoo’s (YHOO) domestic core search market share slipped a bit, falling to 20.1 percent in May from 20.4 percent in April. Its core search volume for the month grew by 29.5 percent, down from 39.3 percent.

And what of Microsoft (MSFT)? It, too, suffered a decline. Its share of the domestic core search market fell to eight percent in May from 8.2 percent in April. Core search growth was also down at 24.9 percent from 25.7 percent in April. Clearly, Microsoft is still struggling to gain purchase in the search market. But, while these data don’t yet show it, Microsoft may have found some traction. As I noted last week, Bing has been generating a fair bit of interest, and that bodes well for some improvement in its position in the search market.

Not so difficult, apparently. As I noted yesterday, early data from market researcher comScore (SCOR) show Bing boosting Microsoft’s share of the search market to 11.1 percent from 9.1 percent since May 26.

Anyway…

Schmidt’s remarks recall a CNN interview he did earlier this month in the aftermath of Bing’s debut. Then as now, the Google CEO went to great lengths to tar Microsoft and its search products. “Microsoft has announced a Google killer search product about once a year for the past six years,” Schmidt said at the time. “And they need to offer a better product than the one they did last year. I think it’s too early to say with Bing how well it will do. They have some advantages because of the Windows monopoly where they can encourage people–in our view unfairly–to use Bing, but let’s see what the end users choose. We always start from the premise ‘what do the end users want’ and we continue to find in our studies that what Google offers is what they want.”

It seems that morbid interest in the stock market’s decline is driving up Yahoo (YHOO) video streams, as well. The much diminished Internet major claimed 265 million video streams in September, a 56 percent increase over the 169 million it claimed in August. And that puts it in the No. 2 spot on Nielsen Online’s monthly VideoCensus. Impressive, no? Presumably, October will be even better, given the upcoming presidential election.

That said, as in search, Google (GOOG) is the one to beat in Web video. The company’s YouTube property served up an astonishing 5.3 billion streams.

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• Yahoo Search Market Share Apparently Inversely Related to Yahoo Share Price

The new Ask is faster than its predecessor. Its search results are more relevant and sharpened by structured data (TV listings, etc.) where available. And the little search engine that couldn’t is still using semantic technology to interpret and answer questions put to it by users. “To call it an all-new Ask is wrong; it’s an evolution of Ask,” said Barry Diller, CEO of Ask parent IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI). “I think it’s going to help us primarily in [visitor] retention and frequency. That is really its goal.”

But while it might appeal to some, Ask’s latest iteration isn’t likely to make much of a difference in the brutish battle for search engine market share. But then Ask doesn’t need much, does it? The search business is enormously profitable. As Microsoft’s (MSFT) Don Dodge once noted, every market-share point in search is worth a billion dollars or more. So if Ask manages to boost its share of all searches even slightly, it’s a success. “Search revenue for us is very profitable and it’s certainly growing,” said Diller. “Does it matter whether or not we take big chunks of…market share? No. Would we like and hope to? Yes.”

Incidentally, June, as Todd Bishop notes over at The Seattle Post Intelligencer, happens to be the last month in Microsoft’s fiscal year, which means it’s also the end of the period in which Microsoft executive bonuses are calculated.