Nope. Turns out that 2009 PC shipments, which were once thought to be headed for certain disaster, aren’t going to decline at all. They’re going to grow.

By 2.8 percent.

Seems that rising consumer demand for netbooks is boosting unit sales to better-than-expected levels. That said, the market value of those sales is still projected to decline.

“Blame this year’s drop in market value on the unprecedented declines in PC average selling prices (ASPs) we’ve seen this year,” said Gartner (IT) research director George Shiffler. “The rapid decline in PC ASPs reflects a marked shift towards lower price points as customers have looked for ‘good enough’ PCs at the cheapest price, and vendors have tried to spur market growth by catering to ever-lower price points. We expect PC ASP declines to slow as the market recovers, but given the market’s competitive dynamic, we don’t see PC ASPs rising any time soon. As a result, growth in the market value of shipments will significantly lag shipment growth next year and beyond.”

One last point worth noting here. Despite Microsoft’s (MSFT) claims that sales of Windows 7 have been “fantastic,” Gartner says the operating system isn’t likely to have much impact on holiday PC sales. “We just don’t see consumers buying new PCs solely because of Windows 7,” said Shiffler. “We are expecting a modest bump in fourth-quarter consumer demand as vendors promote new Windows 7-based PCs, but the attraction will be the new PCs, not Windows 7.”

According to Shiffler, “The more critical question is, ‘When will businesses make their move to Windows 7, and what will they do about replacements in the interim?’ We don’t see businesses mainstreaming Windows 7 much before the end of 2010. We think many businesses will try to shift replacements to the back end of next year so as to sync their adoption of Windows 7 with their PC refresh. That will put a damper on early 2010 shipments.”

“Most stores we contacted reported strong follow-through sales last week and have received ‘re-stocks’ following the initial launch,” says McKechnie. “We had guesstimated ~ 200k Verizon-only ‘sell in’ prior to the launch. We now expect at least another 200k by Black Friday and 150-200k through the remainder of the holiday season, which gets us to our 600k forecast for the quarter. All stores appear ‘well stocked’ with none reporting shortages….Our checks with stores indicate no issues with returns of the Droid.”

Evidently, Verizon’s Droid saturation campaign, with a budget estimated at $100 million, is paying off–despite its impersonal sci-fi positioning.

“Now we aren’t typically the carrier that comes out and announces what we are going to be selling 12 months from now. Other carriers do that, and the media loves to speculate on what we are bringing to market. But what I will tell you is that over the next six months or so you will see devices like the Palm Pre and the cousin on our network from Palm.”

– Verizon Wireless President and CEO Lowell McAdam

For Palm, 2010 will be a year of channel expansion, with its new webOS handsets coming to more carriers. Top among them, Verizon (VZ), which has been rumored to be getting a device “like the Palm Pre” since Palm (PALM) launched it. In a research note to investors today, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu says a Palm smartphone on Verizon is pretty much inevitable.

“Based on our checks with industry and supply chain sources, we have fairly high conviction in Verizon carrying Palm’s webOS-based smart phones sometime in 2010 (potentially as early as 1H),” Wu writes.

“The reason,” Wu explains, “is three-fold: 1) despite heavy promotion and favorable reviews, sales of Android 2.0 smart phones (MOT Droid and HTC Droid Eris) have been somewhat disappointing and below expectations; 2) strong indications point to Palm’s launch exclusive with Sprint ending in 2009; and 3) our checks show high interest in webOS from Verizon including public comments by CEO Lowell McAdam.”

Interesting, especially the comment about Droid sales. If Wu is right, the device may not prove as daunting a competitive challenge as you would think.

“It’s too early to declare game over,” Wu says. “Talking with investors, most have written off Palm as a legitimate competitor and assumed Android will be the platform of choice at Verizon and other carriers. We believe Palm still has sizable advantages with its multitouch capability and vertical integration.”

At $12.34, Palm (PALM) is up well over seven percent as I write this, a nice gain that more than offset the four percent drop the company’s shares suffered last week. Clearly, the market is expecting a lot of the Pixi, and according to some analysts, it may get it. In a note to clients Friday, RBC analysts said they “expect positive consumer reception and healthy sell-through,” for the Pixi.

But not everyone agrees with RBC’s cheery assessment. Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Northeast Securities, has a much dimmer view of Palm’s prospects in the months ahead. He says his sell-through checks show a “substantial decline” in recent Pre sales.

“As a fading brand, carriers are likely to see better returns on their promotional and advertising dollars with other vendors,” Kumar writes. “WebOS has negligible smartphone OS share, 0.2 percent per Gartner estimates, and is unlikely to attract any meaningful third-party application support. Palm has bet the farm on webOS and there is a real possibility that they may not achieve critical mass.”

Perhaps. Perhaps not. We’ll see in the months ahead.

According to new data released this week by Gartner, Apple shipped some 7.04 million iPhones in the third quarter–up from just 4.72 million phones in the same period a year ago–for a 17.1 percent share of the market (see table below; click to enlarge).

That’s a 49.2 percent year-over-year increase in sales and it puts Apple (AAPL) in spitting distance of Research in Motion (RIMM), which also posted close to a 50 percent year-over-year gain to claim 21 percent of smartphone sales during the period.

With 39 percent of smartphone sales, Nokia (NOK) was the top seller during the period, and it’s clearly not ceding its spot any time soon. But RIM might, given the small gap between its market share and Apple’s.

In any case, RIM clearly has a fight on its hands as we head in the holidays, especially if Apple brings an 8GB iPhone 3GS to market in the next few weeks.

UPDATE: According to Apple’s last earnings announcement, the company said it shipped 7.4 million iPhones during the quarter. Why there’s a discrepancy between the company’s numbers and Gartner’s isn’t clear.

“We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.”

Palm CEO Ed Colligan, December 2006

“Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan? I said that’s the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good e-mail machine.”

– Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, January 2007

At 37.9 percent, Nokia’s share of the global handset market is the largest in the industry. Odd then to learn that it is not the most profitable. And odder still to learn that that honor belongs to Apple, which has been in the handset market for just two years.

According to Strategy Analytics, Apple’s third-quarter iPhone operating profit was $1.6 billion, while Nokia’s was $1.1 billion. Driving Apple’s profits: Strong sales, high wholesale prices and tight cost controls.

“We have identified at least 4 key factors underlying Apple’s success,” Strategy Analytics analyst Alexander Spektor explains. “First, Apple created a simple sub-brand–the iPhone–which was memorable and easy to remember. Second, the firm developed an attractive family of models with standout usability that enabled Apple to charge way-above-average prices to operators and consumers. Third, Apple distributed and co-marketed its handsets through top-tier carriers in numerous high-value countries. And fourth, the vendor has kept a solid grip on production costs by working with Foxconn, the world’s largest contract handset manufacturer.”

Quite an achievement for Apple (AAPL) and a major humiliation for Nokia (NOK), which has seen its dominance eroded by the likes of Apple and Research in Motion (RIMM), and not just in North America, but in Europe. Indeed, in its latest quarter Nokia’s smart-phone market share dropped by six points.

As Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston noted at the time, “[Nokia has] no iPhone killer to drive a major revival in its smartphone volumes. [It] is still struggling in the U.S. smartphone market, and with competition intensifying in China as well, Nokia’s battles can only get tougher in 2010.”

“EA is performing well, with quality, sales and segment share up so far this year,” EA CEO John Riccitiello said in a statement. “We are making tough calls to cut costs in targeted areas and investing more in our biggest games and digital businesses.”

According to a 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Sun (JAVA) lost $120 million, or 16 cents a share, on revenue of $2.24 billion in its first quarter. During the same period a year ago, Sun lost $1.68 billion, or $2.24 a share, on $2.99 billion in sales. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 25 cents a share on revenue of $2.31 billion.

Oracle (ORCL) CEO Larry Ellison recently said that Sun is losing about $100 million a month as it waits for European antitrust regulators to approve its acquisition by Oracle. Looks like he’s about right.

Below, excerpts from the 10-Q:

Server Products Revenue
The decrease in Server Products revenue during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, as compared to the corresponding period in fiscal 2009, was primarily due to the economic downturn and consolidation of our customer base, specifically in the financial services sector, as projects were scaled back, delayed or canceled, in addition to the uncertainty associated with the proposed acquisition by Oracle and increased competition.

Storage Products Revenue
The decrease in Storage Products revenue during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, as compared to the corresponding period in fiscal 2009, was primarily attributable to the economic downturn as projects were scaled back, delayed or canceled, in addition to the uncertainty associated with our proposed acquisition by Oracle and increased competition.

North America
The decrease in revenue during the first quarter of fiscal 2010, as compared to the corresponding period in fiscal 2009, was primarily due to decreased sales of our enterprise Server Products, storage disk products and Services. We are still seeing the results of IT budget cuts instituted last year by our largest customers due to the economic downturn, especially in the financial services sector, in addition to the consolidation of our customer base. Across all sectors, non-critical projects are on hold. Revenue was also negatively impacted by the uncertainty associated with our proposed acquisition by Oracle and increased competition.

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“We’ve had a great response here in Japan,” Ballmer said. “Certainly we’ve seen initial sales be fantastic. The first ten days were bigger than the first ten days of XP or Vista or any other Windows launch that we have done.”

And indeed that would seem to be the case. According to research outfit NPD, Microsoft (MSFT) sales of Windows 7 in its first few days on the market were more than triple Vista sales for the same length of time.

Welcome news, considering that back in June, SIA was calling for chip sales to fall 21 percent.

“The new forecast is brighter than our earlier projections, reflecting an improving global economy,” SIA President George Scalise said in a statement. “Unit sales of key demand drivers–including PCs and cell phones, which together account for about 60% of semiconductor demand–have been stronger than previously predicted. We remain cautiously optimistic for the longer term. The current forecast is closely tied to projections of continuing improvement in the worldwide economy.”

Excluding one-time items, Cisco (CSCO) said it earned 36 cents a share, down from 42 cents a share in the same period last year. Still, that was better than the consensus estimate. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the company to deliver a profit of 31 cents a share on sales of $8.745 billion.

“Building off what we saw as a clear tipping point in Q4, our Q1 results continued to reflect strong sequential growth trends that meet or exceed expectations during normal economic times,” CEO John Chambers said in a statement.

“We view the improving economic outlook, combined with solid execution on our growth strategy, as creating unparalleled opportunity to drive more value into the core of the network,” Chambers continued. “Simply said, we believe that key market transitions across collaboration, virtualization and video will drive productivity and growth in network loads for the next decade, and are evolving even faster than expected.”

At $24.20, shares in the company are trading up nearly four percent on the news.

Earlier this week, analysts at Citigroup (C) and CL King voiced their concerns about the company in the wake of another ugly quarter from carrier partner Sprint (S). Now Standard & Poor’s is doing so as well. In a note to investors today, analyst James Moorman whacked down his price target on the company’s shares to $10 from $12 and reiterated his “Strong Sell rating.

“We believe the upcoming holiday selling season will be very competitive for handset vendors and think Palm could see competitive pressures,” he wrote. “We believe the small price difference between the Pre handset (especially when on sale at third party vendors) and the new lower-end Pixie could limit Pixie sales and confuse consumers during the launch.”
 
Indeed. As I noted here last week the $99 price Sprint has set for the Pixi is identical to the Pre’s on Amazon (AMZN). And the Pre has a faster processor, a better screen, and Wi-Fi support as well.

Not the most desirable circumstances for heading into the holiday season.