Thursday, September 10, 2009
High Point of Apple Event: Upgraded CEO
After nearly a year out of the public eye, Apple CEO Steve Jobs returned to it yesterday at the company’s annual music event. It was his first public appearance at an Apple gathering since Oct. 14, 2008, when he uncrated the company’s new unibody MacBooks, and it far overshadowed the new products he was about to announce. In fact, it could be argued that public confirmation of Jobs’s health since his return to the company was truly the most significant announcement of the day.
Apple’s iPhone continues to be AT&T’s marquee handset, though the data-guzzling “Hummer of cellphones,” as the New York Times has dubbed it, has inspired widespread customer dissatisfaction with the carrier’s network. Indeed, according to Piper Jaffray, the iPhone 3G and 3GS are AT&T’s top-selling phones.
Though it got off to a slow start, Palm’s App Catalog is slowly evolving into the ecosystem for which the company had hoped. It recently surpassed four million downloads and is poised for a bit of a growth spurt now that more applications have begun to appear on its virtual shelves. Indeed, in the last week, the number of applications available for the Pre increased by 40 percent to 58. 
Another point worth pulling out from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s recent research note about Apple, this one regarding AT&T’s iPhone-exclusivity deal: Munster doesn’t see it lasting much beyond this year.
Who will win the gaming console price war of 2009? Consumers. Two weeks after Sony lowered the price of the PlayStation 3 to $299 from $399, Microsoft did the same for the Xbox 360 Elite, slashing $100 off the price of the console. In addition, the company cut the price of its now discontinued Xbox 360 Pro console by $50 to $249.99, while supplies last. 
Wise is the investor holding shares in Apple, Research in Motion and/or Palm, because these companies are the triumvirate of tech’s new world order. This according to RBC analyst Mike Abramsky, who in a research note today says all three are positioned for leadership in the “huge, nascent and underpenetrated” smartphone market.
Palm’s next webOS handset, the so-called Eos (codename: Pixie), is still in the pipeline, but it may not arrive at market for some time. Though some observers have speculated that the device would debut in the late fall in time for the holidays, others are now suggesting that a 2010 launch is more likely. 
Now this is just getting silly. Pali Research says sales of the Palm Pre are slowing. RBC’s Mike Abramsky says they aren’t and claims 325,000 to 375,000 have been sold to date, ahead of his expectations. Jesup and Lamont analyst Kevin Dede says the device is plagued by high exchange/return rates of potentially 40 percent. Abramsky says it’s more likely between two and three percent. Who’s right? Who cares?
Sprint best step up its marketing efforts for the Pre because according to Pali Research, demand for Palm’s new device is slowing, and quickly. During the week ending June 26, Pali estimates that Sprint sold 50,000-60,000 Pre handsets. In the weeks that followed, it sold “less than 40,000,” and then, “over 30,000”–again, according to Pali. Now the research outfit says sales have declined by another 5,000 units.
Cisco’s acquisition of Pure Digital, developer of the Flip digital video camera, may prove an ill-timed one. For while the Flip currently dominates the market that it largely created, it’s about to be taken to the mat by a new and formidable rival: Apple. 
With Palm’s shares up more than 900 percent since January, two things are clear: Palm’s Pre and webOS operating system are nothing short of a triumph and the run-up in Palm shares is most likely a wee bit overdone. In a research note issued Monday, Jesup and Lamont analyst Kevin Dede says as much, arguing that the company’s shares are overvalued, particularly in light of Pre returns.
Are sales of the Pre slowing or not? Without official numbers from Palm or Sprint, it’s nearly impossible to tell. But that hasn’t stopped analysts from taking a stab at it. Earlier this week, Pali research claimed Pre sales were tapering off. Now Pacific Crest is saying they remain “robust.”
Post-Pre launch, Palm may be, in the words of CEO Jon Rubinstein, “exactly where we hoped we would be.” But how long the company will stay there is an open question. Because according to Pali Research, Pre sales slowed again last week.
Research in Motion best get to work refreshing its shopworn BlackBerry line, and fast, because growing competition from new rivals like the iPhone 3GS and Pre are cutting into its market share. According to retail checks conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst T. Michael Walkley, the BlackBerry slowed as the summer kicked off and AT&T and Sprint began peddling new smartphone offerings from Apple and Palm.
