Consensus seems to be that the Droid is the device that will get Motorola back into the game. Indeed, Technology Business Research’s Ken Hyers says the Droid is likely a “serious challenger to the iPhone.”

Over at RBC Capital Markets, Mark Sue says good things as well. “The Droids are coming and Motorola will be an important part of Verizon’s push for smartphone differentiation,” he wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “In addition to compelling products, Motorola seems to have gotten back into the good graces of the North American carrier federation, which should aggressively push the new devices.”

Of course, these endorsements don’t necessarily mean that Motorola is poised to return to its past glory. And they certainly don’t guarantee the Christmas turnaround the company is clearly hoping for. After all, the smart-phone market is far more competitive now than it was when Motorola last dominated it back in 2004.

Said Morningstar analyst Joseph Beaulieu: “[I’m not sure the Droid] will be good enough to cut through the noise that you’re getting from Apple iPhone, HTC’s Hero, Research In Motion’s BlackBerry and even Palm’s Pre and upcoming Pixi.”

“We are very impressed by Apple’s ability to post a record profit quarter during difficult macro spending conditions,” Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek said in a note to clients this morning. “A host of new product introductions and continued traction with the iPhone give us confidence in the sustainability of Apple’s operating model.”

Suffice it to say, Misek wasn’t the only the analyst lauding Apple’s (AAPL) fourth-quarter performance. Below a selection of commentary from other Apple watchers:

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
“September results were strong despite headwinds of iPhone production constraints and a Mac desktop offering in need of a refresh. We expect these headwinds to become tailwinds in the December quarter, which we believe will be positive for AAPL shares in the coming months.”

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets
“With strong financial performance and product uptake amidst recession, and further catalysts (iPhone in China, Tablet, refreshed iMacs, iPhone share gains/momentum), we foresee further upside for the shares.”

Maynard Um, UBS
“Upside to virtually every metric in the qtr backs our positive view on Apple. We continue expect greater “recurring” iPhone hardware revenue (growing installed base & stickiness of the App Store), which should drive more visibility into iPhone sales (20%+ of our FY10 iPhone shipments), as well as iPhone expansion driven by new partnerships (& end of exclusivities). Longer term, we believe a service to provide seamless access & mobility of digital content across all products may be the draw (halo) that drives additional future Apple product sales.”

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
“Overall, Q4:09 was a strong quarter for Apple, as the Mac is nearly becoming the de facto computer for the back-to-school season. Additionally, iPhone trends remain remarkably strong, with unit economics holding up at unheard of levels in the wireless industry.”

Yair Rainer, Oppenheimer
“As usual, Apple appears to be leaving plenty of room for upside surprises to both revenue and margins. On the revenue side, Apple should benefit from continued Mac momentum (particularly in Europe), higher recognized iPhone revenue, and some channel fill for both Mac and iPhone. Gross margin upside is likely to come from a higher proportion of recognized, high-margin iPhone revenue.”

Excluding charges related to stock options and other items, Palm (PALM) said net losses were $13.6 million, or 10 cents a share, for the recent period. Revenue slipped to $68 million from $366.9 million in the same period last year. Excluding revenue deferred from sales of the company’s new Pre handset, Palm said adjusted revenue would have been $360.7 million. Analysts had expected the company to turn in a loss of 24 cents a share on sales of $291 million.

Palm shipped a total of 823,000 smart phone units during the quarter, up 134 percent over the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009, but down 30 percent year over year. Smart phone sell-through for the quarter was 810,000 units, up 76 percent from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 and down 21 percent year over year.

Speaking to analysts Thursday afternoon, Palm execs claimed that “the vast majority of new sales” for the quarter were generated by the Pre. But they declined to separate Pre sales from those of other handsets.

Skeptics will no doubt look at this and conclude that Palm didn’t meet expectations for Pre shipments of about 520,000. That, or the company is still selling a hell of a lot of Centros.

“We’re making significant progress with Palm’s transformation, and our culture of innovation is stronger than ever,” said Jon Rubinstein, chairman and chief executive officer. “We’re launching more great Palm webOS products with more carriers, and turning our sights toward growth.”

A few more Jon Rubinstein remarks from the earnings call:

On additional form factors:

I’m a big believer in families of products, and we’ll continue to evolve the line in the future and have a family of products for webOS.

On Carrier Customization:

We don’t really talk about our carrier agreements.

On Pre sales:

Sell-in and sell-through…the vast majority of new sales…relate to the Pre.

On the Pixi cannibalizing Pre sales:

The Pixi is a more cost-effective offering, so yes we expect some people might come into the store looking to buy a Pre and end up with a Pixi. But others might come in looking for a Pixi and end up with a Pre. As I said, we’re big believers in families of products. We’re happy to have two webOS products on the market.

On carrier diversification:

Sprint did a phenomenal launch with the Pre. They invested heavily in advertising….We’re looking forward to launching the Pixi with them as well. We don’t talk about our roadmap, but we’ll have more carriers and more products in the future.

On Motorola’s new Motoblur service:

We don’t really know much about it. To build really great consumer products, you have to own the OS and services. And the fact that we have webOS as our asset is really important.

Never mind that it faces some particularly long, historic odds. That it has launched a new bet-the-company product in the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years, for example. That with the Pre, it is challenging Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, one of the most successful mobile phones in history. That it’s competing in a market crowded by the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) and Nokia (NOK), which shipped an astonishing 468 million phones in calendar 2008.

Never mind all that. Because, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) has the “special sauce”–the means of orchestrating a second act, perhaps even one of Jobsian proportions.

“Following a period of decline and facing oblivion, we believe Palm has the potential for a remarkable smartphone turnaround,” Abramsky writes in a lengthy research note on the wireless industry that I mentioned here yesterday as well. “With its new strategy, WebOS product line and under the direction of a new management team headed by ex-Apple executive Jon Rubinstein, Palm (like RIM and Apple) is, in our opinion, well-positioned for smartphone leadership.”

Abramsky sees a promising future: “Our outlook calls for Palm to quickly recover, growing from an estimated 1.3 percent data-centric smartphone shipment market share (0.2 percent TAM) or 2.2 million units in calendar 2009 to 3.6 percent share (1.3 percent of TAM) or 18.2 million units in calendar 2012. Targeting the PIM-centric segment of the Palm legacy, Palm in our view faces near-term risks, but has the ’special sauce.’” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

And what, exactly, is that? The stuff that goes between the two all-beef patties and the lettuce and cheese?

Not quite. Abramsky’s idea of special sauce includes vertical integration, “controlling the end-to-end smartphone software and hardware platform, a ground-up developed smartphone OS platform with unique innovations like multitasking, Synergy (user data integration), developer-friendly SDK, and compelling and clever hardware/software designs [that] all combine to offer a unique, iconic smartphone experience, differentiated from incumbent vendors.”

A hell of an ingredient list. But it’s one that the Pre and Palm’s webOS largely deliver on–despite some drawbacks. And if Palm can improve on that list, the company should have little trouble wooing back disenfranchised users and winning new ones.

Abramsky, again: “The huge positive reception to the launch of Palm’s Pre, its first WebOS device–despite the already broad awareness of iPhone–illustrates pent-up demand for innovative, non-intimidating smartphone user experiences. The accolades for Pre also show Palm has the potential to provide that rare iconic smartphone experience, above competitors, some incumbents and in the company of RIM and Apple.”

Which is pretty much what Palm has set out to do, as CEO Jon Rubinstein noted in the company’s last earnings call. “There is room for three to five players in this space,” he said. “We don’t have to beat one another to prosper.”

You do have to execute, though. And execution hasn’t historically been one of Palm’s strong suits. Perhaps it will improve with the addition of that special sauce Abramsky’s talking about.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything

This according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, who in a research note today says all three are positioned for leadership in the “huge, nascent and underpenetrated” smartphone market. The smartphone, says Abramsky, is a uniquely transformational innovation in that it represents the convergence of four iconic technology markets–PC and computing, Internet, consumer electronics and wireless phones.

As interest in mobile email, mobile browsing and mobile applications grows, as handsets become more powerful and the networks on which they run improve, consumers will begin to bypassing PCs and the tethered Internet for the iPhone, the BlackBerry, the Pre and the mobile computing experience they offer. And that transition will create an enormous market opportunity for smartphone vendors like Apple (AAPL), RIM (RIMM) and Palm (PALM).

“Because of their convergence capabilities,” writes Abramsky, “we believe that smartphones possess the ability to capture users, revenues, market share and profits from not only the 1 billion unit+ per year handset market–but also from the PC market (300 million units per year), TVs (200 million units per year), personal media players (230 million units per year), digital cameras (125 million units per year), personal gaming devices (37 million units per year), portable navigation devices (32 million units per year) and other formerly discrete market segments.”

Bolstering his case, Abramsky adds, “At the end of calendar 2008, only 2.5% of the ~7 billion people in the world had smartphones and 24% had Internet access (only 8% are Internet subscribers, the difference being multi-user households and Internet cafes). A huge market opportunity for smartphones exists, given that globally there are 3.7 billion mobile phone subscribers, 2.5 billion consumer electronics users, 1.6 billion Internet users, and 1.1 billion PC users.” (Click on chart below to enlarge.)

Great news for Apple, RIM and Palm, which Abramsky sees as the market’s emerging leaders. And, as I noted earlier, great news for investor holding their shares. Says Abramsky: “We are raising our price targets on RIM from $100 to $150, on Apple from $190 to $250, and on Palm from $18 to $25, justified by increased market shares which, as visibility improves to the huge smartphone opportunity, offer upside to financials and potential multiple expansion.”

Looks like Sue was right, and the road to which he referred was a short one. The struggling telecom company has hired counsel to explore a bankruptcy filing, The Wall Street Journal reports. Nortel, well aware what such reports can do to investor confidence, insists that no such filing is imminent. The company does, however, acknowledge that it has engaged advisers to help it weather the current economic storm. Just who has Nortel hired? Word on the street says Lazard Ltd. and law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton.

Grim news for Nortel, which has spent the past several years trying to recover from the general downturn in the telecom industry and a nasty accounting scandal. With apparently very little success.

In a statement Wednesday, the company said, “Nortel is hard at work reshaping the business to even better serve our customers. There are those who fuel negative speculation, but there are many more who believe that Nortel has put in place the necessary plans to strengthen our financial footing and reset our cost base.”

“Considering the worsening macro environment, Nortel’s challenged industry position, and concerns related to liquidity while the capital markets are basically closed, we think bankruptcy is a distinct possibility down the road,” Sue wrote in a note to investors. “The world moved on while Nortel was stuck in restructuring mode, and the lack of financial flexibility means Nortel has to rely on asset sales to fund future operations.”

More ugly news for Nortel (NT), which just announced layoffs and seems to be slipping closer and closer to the abyss each day.

We see little to stop Google from reaching 70 percent market share eventually; the question, really, comes down to, ‘How long could it take?’”

– RBC Capital Markets analyst Jordan Rohan, March 2006.

No wonder the Department of Justice was going to file suit to prevent Google’s (GOOG) proposed advertising partnership with Yahoo: The company controls nearly three quarters of the search market. Research outfit Hitwise reports that Google’s share of the U.S. Internet search market rose to 71.7 percent in October from 71.16 percent in September. A nice little jump from the 64.49 share it claimed a year ago.

And what of Yahoo (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT)? Well, they fared about as you would expect. Yahoo’s share fell to 17.74 percent in October from 18.06 percent in September and 21.65 percent a year ago. In contrast, Microsoft’s share rose slightly to 5.4 percent, up from 5.36 percent in September.

Sadly, that’s a decline of about two percentage points year-over-year. Not even a respectable showing for an also-ran. ‘Course, that will all change if Microsoft ever gets around to acquiring Yahoo–or, at least, its search business. Together the two companies would control almost, but not quite, a quarter of the search market.

Our industry is not immune to what goes on in the global economy. And yet as I travel, given the current circumstances, people still see a certain buoyancy in the market.”

– Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, Sept. 26, 2008

Wall Street’s 777-point selloff Monday–one of its worst days since 1929–hit many tech stocks harder even than the overall market on Monday. Said Ross Sandler, senior Internet analyst at RBC Capital Markets, “Tech took it on the chin disproportionately.”

Indeed, it did. And a couple of other places as well, from the looks of things.

A quick overview of the carnage:

• Amazon (AMZN) fell 10 percent to $63.35
• Apple (AAPL) fell 17.9 percent to $105.26
• Cisco (CSCO fell 8.5 percent to $21.79
• Comcast (CMCSA) fell 13 percent to $18.01
• Dell (DELL) fell 9.4 percent to $15.41, a new 10-year low
• eBay (EBAY) fell 12 percent to $19.95
• Google (GOOG) fell 12 percent to $381.00, a new 2-year low
• Intel (INTC) fell 10.1 percent to $17.27, a new 2-year low
• Microsoft (MSFT) fell 8.7 percent to $25.01
• Oracle (ORCL) fell 9 percent to $18.77
• Qualcomm (QCOM) fell 13 percent to $39.88
• Research In Motion (RIMM) fell 12.8 percent to $61.73
• Sirius XM (SIRI) fell 18 percent to $0.62
• Sun (JAVA) fell 11.7 percent to $6.75, a new 13-year low
• Yahoo (YHOO) fell 10.8 percent, to $16.88, a new 5-year low

Seems the tech industry “buoyancy” to which Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer referred last week was more of a noneffervescence. Certainly, that’s the impression one gets from reading the statement Microsoft just issued calling on Congress to revisit its vote against the financial bailout plan. “Microsoft strongly urges members of the U.S. House of Representatives to reconsider and to support legislation that will re-instill confidence and stability in the financial markets,” General Counsel Brad Smith said in a statement. “This legislation is vitally important to the health and preservation of jobs in all sectors of the economy of Washington State and the nation, and we urge Congress to act swiftly.”

What was that you were saying about “buoyancy” again, Steve?

Still, to be fair, the tech sector does appear to be gaining some ground in early trading today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 2 percent to 2,027, reclaiming some of Monday’s ugly 9 percent loss. Apple shares are up 2.7 percent at $106.70 as I write this. Google shares are up 4.5 percent at $398.06. Microsoft is up 2.5 percent at $25.63. Even Yahoo is on an upward track, up 2.43 percent at $17.29.

According to new metrics from Hitwise, Google’s (GOOG) share of the U.S. Internet search market grew to 70.77 percent in July. That’s a 10 percent increase over the same month last year. The search juggernaut’s growth came once again at the expense of rivals Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT) and Ask. The market share of all three declined in the same period–Yahoo’s to 18.65 percent, Microsoft’s to 5.36 percent, and Ask’s to 3.53 percent.

Seems that search really is a natural monopoly business, as Credit Suisse analyst Heath Terry once noted. “We believe that search is a natural monopoly business and expect that over time Google will continue to gain share until they have effectively reached 100 percent,” Heath wrote in a research note to clients last year. “Over the last two years Google has gained 50 [basis points] of share/month in the U.S. and 60bp globally. We expect these share gains to accelerate as declining scale makes it more difficult for competitors to justify the technology investments needed to maintain search result quality.”

If that’s the case, if search is a natural monopoly business, then Google is apparently its natural monopolist. After all, a 70 percent share of the search market is … well, it’s obscene, really. And it begs many a question about the company’s partnership with Yahoo and the potential antitrust problems it may present. No wonder the document outlining the terms of two companies’ search advertising deal is so heavily redacted …

Given all this then, why are Apple shares trading down this morning? Seems concerns about CEO Steve Jobs’s gaunt appearance at Apple’s World Wide Developers Conference in June have not subsided, nor will they, now that The New York Post is questioning his health. “Apple’s hedge fund investors are very worried,” said a Wall Street source who has spoken with some of the company’s stakeholders,” the Post reports. ” … Multiple sources who have met with–and in some cases even dined with–Jobs in the weeks surrounding the introduction of the iPhone 3G on July 11, said they came away troubled by his thin appearance.”