Sources tell TechFlash that Microsoft (MSFT) will make additional job reductions this week–beginning as early as today. Cuts are expected to number in the hundreds–smaller than those made in January and May, but ugly just the same.

“As we move forward, we will continue to closely monitor the impact of the economic downturn on the company and if necessary, take further actions on our cost structure including additional job eliminations,” Ballmer said in May. Given that Microsoft posted declines in revenue and profits in its latest quarter, I suppose this week’s rumored “action” was inevitable.

UPDATE: Cuts are indeed being made today–800 of them. Here’s the official word from Microsoft:

“Earlier this year, we announced that in order to reduce costs, increase efficiency and prioritize our focus areas, we would eliminate approximately 5,000 positions by June 2010. Today, we are eliminating around 800 positions spread across multiple businesses and locations and have completed our reduction plan sooner than we had anticipated 11 months ago. At the same time, we continue to hire in priority areas, but also understand that continuing to manage our businesses closely, as we always do, can mean additional headcount adjustments.”

Pretty damn badly.

Posting third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations this morning, AT&T (T) said it activated a record 3.2 million iPhones during the period (not surprising given Apple’s blowout quarter).

Of those, 40 percent were for customers new to the carrier. That’s quite a bit more than Wall Street expected, and this surge did much to balance continued weakness in AT&T’s wireline business (click on slide below to enlarge). In fact, if that 40 percent metric is accurate, then Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone single-handedly generated an astonishing 92 percent of AT&T’s post-paid subscriber growth.

“We delivered a terrific wireless quarter, IP data growth was strong and execution across the business continues to be solid,” AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson said in an earnings release, and indeed, that would seem to be the case.

Wireless data-services revenue spiked 34 percent. And revenue from the wireless segment overall increased 8.2 percent as profit grew 41 percent. Wireless turnover rate fell to a record low of 1.4 percent.

Meanwhile, wireline revenue fell 7.1 percent, profit 30 percent.

So in the end, AT&T posted earnings of $3.2 billion, or 54 cents a share, down from $3.23 billion, or 55 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue slipped 1.6 percent to $30.86 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected per-share earnings of 50 cents on revenue of $30.88 billion.

At $26.86, shares of AT&T are up about 3.5 percent in early morning trading.

“People familiar with the situation” tell The Wall Street Journal that the plan under consideration would combine HP’s printer and PC businesses under Todd Bradley, who currently oversees only the latter. It’s not yet clear what such a move will mean for Vyomesh Joshi, who heads up HP’s Imaging and Printing Group. Presumably, the company will keep him around. Under his leadership, HP’s printer business generated more than 30 percent of the company’s total profits during its last quarter.

In any event, should the plan be approved (and it is contingent on Hurd’s approval), it will bring HP back full circle to 2005 when then-CEO Carly Fiorina merged HP’s printer division with its struggling PC division. Except now that printer growth has slowed, it’s the PC business that’s the powerhouse.

Tough choices, *cough*, eh Mark?

This according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, who in a research note today says all three are positioned for leadership in the “huge, nascent and underpenetrated” smartphone market. The smartphone, says Abramsky, is a uniquely transformational innovation in that it represents the convergence of four iconic technology markets–PC and computing, Internet, consumer electronics and wireless phones.

As interest in mobile email, mobile browsing and mobile applications grows, as handsets become more powerful and the networks on which they run improve, consumers will begin to bypassing PCs and the tethered Internet for the iPhone, the BlackBerry, the Pre and the mobile computing experience they offer. And that transition will create an enormous market opportunity for smartphone vendors like Apple (AAPL), RIM (RIMM) and Palm (PALM).

“Because of their convergence capabilities,” writes Abramsky, “we believe that smartphones possess the ability to capture users, revenues, market share and profits from not only the 1 billion unit+ per year handset market–but also from the PC market (300 million units per year), TVs (200 million units per year), personal media players (230 million units per year), digital cameras (125 million units per year), personal gaming devices (37 million units per year), portable navigation devices (32 million units per year) and other formerly discrete market segments.”

Bolstering his case, Abramsky adds, “At the end of calendar 2008, only 2.5% of the ~7 billion people in the world had smartphones and 24% had Internet access (only 8% are Internet subscribers, the difference being multi-user households and Internet cafes). A huge market opportunity for smartphones exists, given that globally there are 3.7 billion mobile phone subscribers, 2.5 billion consumer electronics users, 1.6 billion Internet users, and 1.1 billion PC users.” (Click on chart below to enlarge.)

Great news for Apple, RIM and Palm, which Abramsky sees as the market’s emerging leaders. And, as I noted earlier, great news for investor holding their shares. Says Abramsky: “We are raising our price targets on RIM from $100 to $150, on Apple from $190 to $250, and on Palm from $18 to $25, justified by increased market shares which, as visibility improves to the huge smartphone opportunity, offer upside to financials and potential multiple expansion.”

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates that Apple (AAPL), though it is only the fifth-largest handset vendor, claimed nearly a third of handset industry profits in the first half of 2009 (see table below; click to enlarge).

“Our analysis indicates that Apple’s iPhone accounted for only 8% of handset industry revenues but 32% of industry operating profits in 1H09,” Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients today. “Even if we exclude the operating losses generated by Motorola and Sony Ericsson, Apple still accounted for 25% of industry profits. iPhone’s success is akin to Apple’s position in the PC industry–where the company enjoys an estimated 25% of industry profits, despite capturing only 6% of industry revenues.”

Quite an achievement considering that the iPhone is just two years old. How did Apple manage it? According to Sacconaghi, Apple succeeded by claiming a first-mover advantage in an expanding high-end market.

“With the iPhone and its Apps Store, Apple has established a formidable smartphone ecosystem, which history suggests is very difficult to overcome,” the analyst explains. “In fact, Apple has the potential to become a de-facto standard of sorts in the consumer smartphone market, much like it became in the portable media player market with iPods, due in large part to its first mover advantage and tight software and hardware integration.

“We believe that over time,” Sacconaghi continues, “single function standalone handheld devices (portable music players, digital cameras, navigation systems, etc.) will become increasingly converged. Apple’s estimated installed base of 75+ million individual iPod and iTunes users provides customers with a seamless migration path to a fuller featured, higher-end integrated device.”

Though Sacconaghi believes Apple should be able to grow faster than the overall handset market without materially lowering prices, he suggests a lower price point might give a signifigant bump to its iPhone business. “We believe Apple will ultimately need to lower price (and margins over time) to expand its addressable market opportunity, including offering a lower-cost, non-data plan iPhone,” he concludes.

Why the discrepancy? RampRate says Credit Suisse vastly overestimated YouTube’s bandwidth, storage, and data center costs. Worse, it failed to account for Google’s peering agreements, which significantly reduce Internet transit costs by exchanging traffic locally with other large networks. RampRate figures Google (GOOG) pays for about 27 percent of YouTube’s bandwidth. It trades for the remaining 73 percent through peering deals.

Beyond this, Google finds savings in other ways. It’s likely able to negotiate a lower rate for 27 percent of YouTube bandwidth it pays for simply by virtue of the sheer amount of business it’s able to bring to the table. And it keeps hosting costs low by maintaining servers in out-of-the-way locations. Says RampRate, “Regardless of what you may hear, YouTube costs are a fraction of any other company running similar operations. Most of Google’s bandwidth is free or near-free; its hardware is cost-optimized; and its data center costs are mostly committed or sunk.”

If that’s the case, why didn’t Google take issue with Credit Suisse’s (CS) projections? Why does it allow this perception of YouTube as money pit to persist? Well, silence is golden, is it not? “Any appearance of profits leads to more draconian revenue share demands from partners and additional lawsuits from owners of unlicensed content,” Ramprate explains. “An apparent loss deters this behavior, making it eminently advisable for Google to let rumors of YouTube’s losses grow and compound….

“The trail for this strategy was blazed long before YouTube. Apple’s poor-mouthing of iTunes served it exceptionally well for years in holding back the tide of higher revenue share demands (even as labels privately suspected the service was much more profitable than reported). The apparent stability and maturity of the business finally culminated in recent price increases. Google can only hope that its run with YouTube lasts as long as Apple’s luxury of $.99 pricing.”

Motorola’s mobile device division’s operating loss grew to $509 million as sales plummeted 45 percent to $1.8 billion. That’s an improvement over the $595 million the division lost in the fourth quarter of 2008, but again, that’s not saying much. Sure, cost cuts are making a difference, but how much of a difference is that, really, when your handset shipments have been halved in the last year?

And there’s more cause for concern. Motorola’s home entertainment and emergency-response communications divisions, which have bolstered its earnings in the past, have also begun to suffer. The econalypse undermined sales and profits in both divisions in the first quarter. End result: a net loss for the company of $231 million, or 10 cents a share, on revenues down about 28 percent to $5.37 billion from $7.45 billion a year ago. Excluding charges, that loss came in at eight cents. That’s better than analysts’ averaged loss forecast of 11 cents, but again given what I’ve outlined above, it’s not saying much.

For the second quarter, Motorola believes it will loses three cents to five cents a share. The Street’s expecting a loss of five cents a share.

Analysts had been expecting worse, with estimates at $1.94 billion in revenue and earnings of 34 cents per share. There was nothing much out of line with eBay’s Q2 forecast, though–sales of $1.85 billion to $2.1 billion and 35-38 cents profit per share. Analysts’ forecasts equate to $1.98 billion and 35 cents per share.

The company attributed the of sales revenue loss to, among other things, a stronger dollar and lower sales among all of its Marketplaces businesses, which include StubHub, Shopping.com and eBay itself. Overall, the group saw a revenue drop of 18 percent to $1.22 billion year-over-year.

In contrast, Skype, one of the company’s subsidiaries, saw a revenue gain of 21 percent to $153.2 million year-over-year. EBay (EBAY) says that it plans to spin Skype off in an IPO sometime next year, though it’s widely believed to be open to an outright sale.

“Due to the current macro-economic conditions and limited visibility, EMC is not offering revenue, EPS or other financial outlook at this time, the company said in a statement. “EMC’s best estimate is that 2009 global IT spending will decline as a percentage in the mid to high single digits compared with 2008. The company expects the markets that it addresses will perform slightly better than the overall IT market. The company also expects that a higher than usual percentage of the full-year IT spending will take place in the second half of the year.”

An ugly blow for Motorola (MOT). With the economy in a deadspin and stronger rivals like Nokia (NOK) lowering handset sale expectations, things are looking decidedly bleak for the company.

Growth is primary, revenue is secondary.”

– Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

Good thing Facebook is committed to growth over profits because according to the latest metrics from Hitwise Intelligence, growth is slowing. While traffic to the site in the United Kingdom did increase by 4 percent between August and September this year, growth is down from 50 percent over the same period last year. Facebook’s annual growth rate is slowing as well. The site grew 88 percent in the UK between September 2007 and 2008–a strong showing, but quite a bit weaker than the 2,905 percent growth Facebook managed in the year prior.

Could it be that Facebook, like other social networks that have gone before it, is nearing its saturation point? Is enthusiasm for the ironically named “Funwall” and the endless conga-line of “You’re A …!” widgets finally wearing off?

In three years or so when Facebook finally settles on a business model. Assuming, of course, that it’s a viable one. And that it doesn’t send privacy advocates into paroxysms of angry status updates.

In an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung this week, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg trotted out the old “growth over profits” cliché as explanation for the company’s long-absent business model. “… what every great Internet company has done is to figure out a way to make money that has to match to what they are doing on the site,” Zuckerberg said. “I don’t think social networks can be monetized in the same way that search did. But on both sites people find information valuable. I’m pretty sure that we will find an analogous business model. But we are experimenting already. One group is very focused on targeting; another part is focused on social recommendation from your friends. In three years from now we have to figure out what the optimum model is. But that is not our primary focus today. … Growth is primary, revenue is secondary.”

Yeah. Tell that to the stock market …

[Image Credit: The Onion]

“Our results demonstrate that the combination of a steady base of recurring revenue and profits, investments for growth in emerging markets, a range of products and services that deliver value to clients, and a strong and flexible financial foundation, give IBM a competitive edge in good times and tough times,” CEO Sam Palmisano said in a statement. “We remain confident in our full-year outlook.”

In spite of Q3 sales that missed analysts’ estimates by about $1 billion. Anyway …

An anomalous bit of good news in an otherwise ghastly financial landscape. Seems IBM somehow managed to avoid that “sudden and unexpected drop in business activity” that slaughtered SAP earlier this week. Shares in IBM (IBM), which have dropped 21 percent in the past month alone, rose a bit on the news.