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Google's Chrome OS: "It Just Works"

John Paczkowski — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:51:03 +0000

Speaking at Microsoft’s Worldwide Partner Conference in New Orleans this past July, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said of Google’s forthcoming Chrome OS, “Who knows what this thing is?”

Today, he found out. The operating system, a direct challenge to Microsoft Windows, was on display at a media gathering at the Google HQ this morning.

Sundar Pichai, vice president of product management, and Matthew Papakipos, engineering director for Google Chrome OS, presided over the event, which the company described as a “technical announcement.”

That meant that Google (GOOG) was not releasing a beta of the operating system this week, as had been rumored.

That said, it was an overview of Chrome, as well as Google’s plans for its launch in 2010, so let the Chrome OS liveblogging begin:

There will be no beta today. Pichai says Google is still a year away from an official launch. However, the company is making the code available today.
Pichai says that a year after launch, the Chrome browser has some 40 millions users. He boasts about the browser’s speed, noting that it handles Javascript 39 times faster than Microsoft’s (MSFT) Internet Explorer. There will be three more big Chrome announcements sometime in the future: Chrome for Mac, Chrome for Linux and the debut of Chrome Extensions.
Google’s goal is to ensure that Web applications function as well as desktop apps. Pichai says that the company is figuring out a way for Web apps to safely take advantage of the operating system in the way desktop apps do. A few examples: Graphics, video/audio applications, real-time communication, notification and local storage.

“By 2010 we expect to have all these things built into Chrome,” Pichai adds.
The advent of Chrome coincides with a perfect storm of converging trends, Pichai says, noting the tremendous popularity of netbooks during the recession, the growing acceptance of cloud apps and the rapid innovation in mobile devices. Smartphones are becoming more like laptops, Pichai adds, and laptops are becoming more like smartphones. Is there a better level of computing available for these devices?

There is, according to Pichai, and Google believes it is Chrome OS.
Among Chrome OS’s advantages, Pichai says: Speed, simplicity and security. Every application will be a Web application. There will be no desktop apps. Chrome OS is essentially a browser with a few modifications. All data in the Chrome OS resides in the cloud. Pichai: “We want all of personal computing to work that way….If I lose my Chrome machine, I should be able to go out, buy a new [one] and re-create my previous computing experience easily.”

Chrome OS will run completely inside the browser security model, he adds, noting that security is one of Google’s top priorities along with speed. “Turning on a PC should be like turning on your TV,” he says.
Chrome OS is very similar in appearance to the Chrome browser. “Chrome OS is Chrome,” says Pichai. Google made it look like a browser, because the browser is familiar.
And indeed, Chrome OS does look quite a bit like a browser. Multiple apps load into tabs, for example. It also features “Panels,” which Pichai describes as persistent lightweight windows. “All Chrome data resides in the cloud. Anything you put in the machine is immediately available to you anywhere.”
As netbooks become more advanced and battery life improves, they will evolve into entertainment devices, says Pichai, who notes that via Google Books, a netbook can become an e-reader, and, through YouTube, a video device.
A quick demo of the user interface, which seems very simple and intuitive. “It just works,” says Pichai in an unintentional nod to Apple (AAPL).

An interesting remark: Anyone who writes an app for the Web has written an app for Chrome, says Pichai, joking that Microsoft is already developing for it.
Speed, simplicity and security, says Pichai. We’re trying to make the computing experience delightful.

With that, Pichai hands the stage over to Engineering Director Matt Papakipos.

Papakipos, too, offers the “we want to make computing delightful” sound byte and notes once again that turning on the PC should be like turning on the TV.
Chrome OS eliminates the bootloader, auto-launching the browser. The OS also auto-updates itself, making sure that it’s always current with security patches, etc. Everything from the firmware to the kernel is secured with a cryptographic signature to ensure a secure boot. In the event malware is detected, the system repairs itself automatically.
The basic application security protocol for current operating systems allows apps the same privileges as the user. This presents obvious security issues. Whenever you install a new app, you’re taking a risk, says Papakipos.

But Web applications like those that Chrome OS use, are different. They are Web apps, so they don’t have system-level privileges. Additionally, all apps run in secured sandboxes that are separate from one other and from the OS. Finally, all apps must be signed and verified before each use.
In terms of file systems, Chrome’s is locked down. It’s a read-only root-file system, obviously quite different from other operating systems. All user data are encrypted and synched to the cloud. Essentially, Google uses the PC for caching. Again, if you should lose your machine, you buy a new one, fire it up and it synchs with the cloud, restoring your previous computing experience.
How will Google bring Chrome OS to market? The company is working with vendors to specify reference hardware. You cannot download and install Chrome on just any device, you will have to purchase a Chrome device. Google is looking at a launch window of late 2010, before the holidays.
Google sounds very concerned about the end-user Chrome OS experience. Pichai says the company wants to ensure that the displays, keyboard, etc., on the netbooks that run Chrome are robust and easy to use.
Pichai wraps things up, but before the Q&A, we’re shown a short explanatory video. “The first thing I want to do when I fire up my computer is browse the Internet….If there isn’t any Internet, I might not even use my computer….What if when you pressed on, your PC turned on, what if your operating system was more like a Web browser…what if it was a browser?…Chrome OS is a totally rethought computer that lets you focus on the Internet, which is what most of use our computers for these days anyway.”

Q&A

At this point, Pichai opens the event to questions:

If you’re specifying hardware components, do you must have an idea of what they’ll cost?

A: We expect Chrome netbooks to be in the price range of what people have come to expect….We are not specifying a price target. Price will be determined at the OEM level.

Will the APIs support W3C standards?

A: We’re working very closely with the W3C to standardize as much as we can….In general, we want to see everything standardized across multiple browsers.

Will there be an application store?

A: The Web offers hundreds of millions of applications. Our job is to make people aware of them.

What about desktop applications that are not available on the Web?

A: We expect most of our users to have a second machine at home….Chrome OS is about a delightful experience on the Web….If you’re a lawyer spending your entire day on contracts, etc., this is not the machine for you.

Will you support Microsoft Silverlight?

A: In the case of certain selection plug-ins, we are working to integrate them. No comment beyond that.

Since Chrome is open source, could people build their own variations?

A: Yes. We expect people will do many interesting things with it.

Do you see Chrome running on laptops or desktops?

A: We’re initially focused on netbook-like form factors–clamshells, etc. That said, the OS is being developed to work on other devices.

Is there any level of offline access? What happens when I’m on a plane and don’t want to pay for Wi-Fi?

A: Chrome devices are primarily intended to be Internet-connected. That said, it will have some caching abilities so, for example, you could play a game offline.

Virtualization?

A: Yes. You could run Chrome today on a virtual machine.

Are you working with outfits like Adobe to, say, build a Web-friendly version of Photoshop?

A: We’re very excited by things like Photoshop on the Web and we’re working hard to make that possible.

Will Android apps work on Chrome? Are there plans for third-party apps?

A: [Pichai dodges this one.] If it’s a Web app, it will work on Chrome. The Web works very, very well for our purposes.

Will Chrome work on both X86 and ARM?

A: Yes.

Is there a direct business model for Chrome OS or is this another variation of the-more-people-that-use-the-Web-the-better-for-Google?

A: We are working with partners. No plans for advertising. That said, Pichai notes again that anything that runs on the Web will run on Chrome. And of course, AdWords does, indeed, run on the Web.

[Sergey Brin joins the Q&A]

Do you want Android Apps to run on Chrome?

A: We are focused on creating the use case in which everything is a Web application, but hopefully we can do more in the future.

How does Chrome handle peripherals? Can it print?

A: Most keyboards, cameras, phones, etc., will work. In terms of printing…yes, Chrome OS will print and we’re working hard to make that possible.

What is Chrome’s strategic position for Google?

A: [Brin]: Call us dumb businessmen, but we really focus on user needs rather than focus on business strategies. We believe that the Web platform is a much simpler way of computing for individuals to use, and that’s a very important need in the market right now. That’s what we’re trying to fulfill.

Palm Smartphone From Verizon by Early 2010

John Paczkowski — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:02:05 +0000

“Now we aren’t typically the carrier that comes out and announces what we are going to be selling 12 months from now. Other carriers do that, and the media loves to speculate on what we are bringing to market. But what I will tell you is that over the next six months or so you will see devices like the Palm Pre and the cousin on our network from Palm.”

– Verizon Wireless President and CEO Lowell McAdam

For Palm, 2010 will be a year of channel expansion, with its new webOS handsets coming to more carriers. Top among them, Verizon (VZ), which has been rumored to be getting a device “like the Palm Pre” since Palm (PALM) launched it. In a research note to investors today, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu says a Palm smartphone on Verizon is pretty much inevitable.

“Based on our checks with industry and supply chain sources, we have fairly high conviction in Verizon carrying Palm’s webOS-based smart phones sometime in 2010 (potentially as early as 1H),” Wu writes.

“The reason,” Wu explains, “is three-fold: 1) despite heavy promotion and favorable reviews, sales of Android 2.0 smart phones (MOT Droid and HTC Droid Eris) have been somewhat disappointing and below expectations; 2) strong indications point to Palm’s launch exclusive with Sprint ending in 2009; and 3) our checks show high interest in webOS from Verizon including public comments by CEO Lowell McAdam.”

Interesting, especially the comment about Droid sales. If Wu is right, the device may not prove as daunting a competitive challenge as you would think.

“It’s too early to declare game over,” Wu says. “Talking with investors, most have written off Palm as a legitimate competitor and assumed Android will be the platform of choice at Verizon and other carriers. We believe Palm still has sizable advantages with its multitouch capability and vertical integration.”

Nokia Buy Palm? Riiiiight.

John Paczkowski — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:39:12 +0000

Palm shares are trading higher today, bolstered by anticipation of the Nov. 15 launch of the Pixi, the company’s second webOS handset and by some silly rumors about a potential takeover by Nokia (NOK). Does the company really need another software platform to add to Symbian, Maemo and Qt? C’mon.

At $12.34, Palm (PALM) is up well over seven percent as I write this, a nice gain that more than offset the four percent drop the company’s shares suffered last week. Clearly, the market is expecting a lot of the Pixi, and according to some analysts, it may get it. In a note to clients Friday, RBC analysts said they “expect positive consumer reception and healthy sell-through,” for the Pixi.

But not everyone agrees with RBC’s cheery assessment. Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Northeast Securities, has a much dimmer view of Palm’s prospects in the months ahead. He says his sell-through checks show a “substantial decline” in recent Pre sales.

“As a fading brand, carriers are likely to see better returns on their promotional and advertising dollars with other vendors,” Kumar writes. “WebOS has negligible smartphone OS share, 0.2 percent per Gartner estimates, and is unlikely to attract any meaningful third-party application support. Palm has bet the farm on webOS and there is a real possibility that they may not achieve critical mass.”

Perhaps. Perhaps not. We’ll see in the months ahead.

Dell Dials Up Smartphones

John Paczkowski — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:00:53 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Videogame Industry Suffers Massively Multiplayer Sales Decline

John Paczkowski — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:50:09 +0000

If the latest sales data are any indication, the videogame industry may be headed for a rough holiday season. NPD Group reports that revenue from consoles and software plummeted during October, falling 16.4 percent from September and 19 percent year-over-year. It was the industry’s seventh consecutive monthly decline.

“The continued economic turmoil, and in particular the troubling unemployment rate, is undoubtedly impacting industry sales,” said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. “Our latest Economy Tracker indicated that although consumers’ general opinion about the economy is improving, their outlook on their own personal situation is worsening. If consumers’ personal outlook continues to erode, they could very well be much more conservative with their holiday shopping this year.”

A somber warning for the videogame industry. Even recent price cuts on game consoles have done little to spur demand.

“Year to date, the hardware category has experienced the sharpest decline in the industry, with unit sales down 10 percent compared to the same time period last year,” Frazier wrote. “Recent price cuts helped spur a one- to two-month increase in unit sales, and this month’s Wii sales reflect that boost, but the other platforms have not sustained the sales momentum after price reduction.”

The videogame industry may be recession-resistant, but it is clearly not recession-proof, as some once believed. Sales data, below.

U.S. Hardware Sales, October 2009

Wii 506.9K

Nintendo DS 457.6K

PlayStation 3 320.6K

Xbox 360 249.7K

PSP 174.6K

PlayStation 2 117.8K

U.S. Top Ten Software Sales, October 2009

Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3, Sony) 537,000

Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) 441,000

Borderlands (360, Take 2) 418,000

Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) 314,000

NBA 2K10 (360, Take 2) 311,000

Halo 3: ODST (360, Microsoft) 271,000

NBA 2K10 (PS3, Take 2) 213,000

Forza Motorsport 3 (360, Microsoft) 175,000

Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS, Square Enix) 169,000

FIFA Soccer 10 (360, Electronic Arts) 156,000

Bartz is Keynoting CES? Are They Putting Her on Five-Second Delay?

John Paczkowski — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 18:09:18 +0000

Carol Bartz, Yahoo’s all caps CEO has been tapped to deliver a keynote address at the 2010 Consumer Electronics Show.

What’s Yahoo (YHOO) got to tout at a consumer electronics showcase? Could be an update to Connected TV, the same Internet-to-television platform the company debuted at CES last year. Or it could be something else entirely.

Either way it’s likely to be an interesting session. As Bartz’s F-bomb-dropping performance at D7 demonstrated (see video below), she’s nothing if not colorful.

[ See post to watch video ]

Palm's Developer Program Not Nearly So Annoying as Apple's

John Paczkowski — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:05:39 +0000

Development for Palm’s new webOS platform will begin in earnest come winter with the official opening of the company’s developer program. At a small gathering in San Francisco Monday night, Palm said its developer program will open in December, and when it does it will be a different beast entirely from rival programs by Apple, Google (GOOG), et al.

For one thing, Palm (PALM) is waiving its $99 app submission fee for open-source webOS apps. For another, it’s giving developers the option of selling their apps through the App Catalog or via a Web-based storefront.

The first option entails a $50-per-app fee and requires review and approval by Palm. This includes the chance to bid on priority placement in the App Catalog if developers wish. The second option requires neither fee nor review and allows developers to distribute their apps over the Web with Palm handling transactions and fulfillment–assuming the apps conform to Palm’s content and user interface criteria.

“By opening up a web distribution channel free from our review, we are placing a great deal of trust in you–the developer–and the community,” Palm said on its blog. “We want you to embrace these principles, establish a high bar of quality and user experience, and help enforce these rules.”

An interesting strategy–assuming developers do establish the high bar of quality to which the company refers. Certainly, it’s very different from Apple’s (AAPL) approach, which includes an application-approval process criticized as obtuse and byzantine. By offering developers the chance to pay to promote their software in its Apps Catalog or to distribute it via the Web without having to suffer through an approval process, Palm is positioning its program as the polar opposite of Apple’s. Question is, are these enticements enough to win their attention?

Palm Ignores USB Group's Warning, Restores iTunes Sync

John Paczkowski — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 16:45:54 +0000

Oh, it’s really on now. This morning Palm announced webOS 1.2.1 another point release to its new webOS platform that restores media synchronization with the latest version, 9.0.1, of iTunes. Moreover, the company has gone the extra step of extending that synchronization feature to photos. This despite Apple’s repeated efforts to disable that feature and warnings from the USB Implementers Forum that Palm is potentially violating its USB-IF Membership Agreement by disguising its Pre handset as an Apple device.

From Palm’s webOS 1.2.1 version information:

Feature changes to existing applications
System

Resolves an issue preventing media sync from working with latest version of iTunes (9.0.1).

Media sync now synchronizes photo albums, maintaining the album structure in the Photos app.

How did Palm (PALM) do this? By once again making the Pre masquerade as an Apple (AAPL) device. Plug your Pre into your computer and set it to Media Sync and it identifies itself like this:

USB Product ID: 0×1209
USB Vendor ID: 0×05ac (Apple, Inc)
Manufacturer: Apple Inc.

A brazen move, considering the USB-IF specifically warned Palm against doing exactly this in its Sept. 22 letter to the company:

I attach for your information the USB-IF’s adopted and published policy regarding Vendor Identification Numbers (VIDs). Under the Policy, Palm may only use the single Vendor ID issued to Palm for Palm’s usage. Usage of any other company’s Vendor ID is specifically precluded. Palm’s expressed intent to use Apple’s VID appears to violate the attached policy.

Please clarify Palm’s intent and respond to this potential violation within seven days.

Now that Palm has “clarified its intent” with regard to this potential violation, I wonder how Apple and the USB-IF will respond. Do they have any recourse? The USB-IF could revoke Palm’s membership in the group, but what would that accomplish? Very little, as far as I can tell. Certainly, it wouldn’t prevent Palm from continuing to update its devices to synch with iTunes.

Reached for comment, Palm declined to offer one. Apple and the USB-IF have not yet responded to my requests. If and when they do, I’ll update here.

UPDATE: Looks like this cat and mouse game is going to go another round. This just in from Apple: “As we’ve said before, newer versions of Apple’s iTunes software may no longer provide syncing functionality with unsupported digital media players.” Presumably, iTunes 9.0.2 will disable Palm’s latest fix.

Windows Mobile: "Unloved, Unappreciated, and Unlikely to Encourage Any Devotion"

John Paczkowski — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 07:01:40 +0000

No wonder Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer is so dismayed by the company’s Windows Mobile division: Most Windows Mobile users aren’t even aware their phones run it. In fact, according to the CFI Group, WinMo has such poor brand recognition that it was forced to group it in the “Other” category in its Smartphone Satisfaction Survey.

“Throughout this report we have focused on the main ‘branded’ smartphones like iPhone, Android, Pre, BlackBerry, and Treo,” the market researcher explained. “And yet there are many more smartphones in use today, manufactured by the likes of LG, Samsung, Motorola, and Nokia, running either the Windows Mobile or Symbian operating system. What’s going on with these smartphones? For one thing, many users can’t identify their operating system. While Android users know they have a phone on the Android platform, most Windows Mobile or Symbian users have no idea what operating system is running their phone.”

That’s bad news for Microsoft (MSFT) and Nokia (NOK) because not only do these “other” smart phones tend to perform the most poorly in customer satisfaction, most of their owners would like to abandon them for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry or the Palm (PALM) Pre.

“The ‘generic’ smartphone is unloved, unappreciated, and unlikely to encourage any devotion among its users,” CFI concludes. “Its main role appears to be as a stepping stone to a ‘branded’ smartphone….Our data indicates there is little future for the ‘generic’ smartphone. Or, to be exact, the first generation of ‘generic’ smartphones. The iPhone has clearly raised the bar, but given the performance of the initial versions of the Pre and Android, the gap is narrowing. It’s clear from our data that the Android and Pre are worthy competitors to the iPhone, and more recent versions of the BlackBerry pose a bigger threat.”

PREVIOUSLY:

iPhone Headed to South Korea in November

John Paczkowski — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 12:30:13 +0000

The iPhone is finally coming to the world’s most wired country. South Korean regulators on Wednesday cleared the iPhone for sale, amending a rule that requires all cellphones sold in the country to use domestic location-based services.

“The commission has endorsed the local sale of the iPhone and the launch of its service within the limits of the law,” said Lee Tae-hee, a spokesman of the Korea Communications Commission. “If Apple includes location based-related details as a form of an agreement to its strategic partners such as KT, Apple’s iPhone can give location-related services here.”

Great news for Apple (AAPL). The South Korean market is a robust one, and analysts say that with the right carrier partner, Cupertino could be looking at sales over the first year ranging from 500,000 to two million. That said, they note that competing with the likes of Samsung and LG on their home turf won’t be easy. Between them, they control about 70 percent of the South Korean handset market.

“There seem to be a lot of people waiting for iPhones to go on sale here but it will not be easy for Apple to crack the Korean market as Samsung and LG already dominate the market with competitive phones,” said Jae Lee, analyst at Daiwa Securities in Seoul. “It will be difficult for Apple to steal market share significantly from the Korean makers in the short term but the iPhone could still be a threat to Samsung and LG in the long term.”

When the iPhone finally does arrive at market in South Korea, it will likely be with KT (formerly known as Korea Telecom) as a carrier partner. As Dan Butterfield over at iPhonAsia notes, KT CFO Yeon-hak Kim suggested as much this past summer. “Apple iPhone will be in our smartphone line-up,” he said in August. “iPhone will help to expand the smartphone market and will contribute to increasing the ARPU (average revenue per user).”

KT officials are telling the Korea Times that they’re looking at a November launch date. “KT has been in talks with Apple to introduce iPhones,” said a KT official. “Sometime in November, the latest iPhone model dubbed as ‘iPhone 3GS’ and its previous model will be commercialized. KT and Apple will decide on the coverage of location-based services.”

EC to Intel: How's This for "Manifestly Disproportionate?"

John Paczkowski — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:16:49 +0000

Intel’s criticism of the European Commission’s legal acumen clearly has not gone over well in Brussels. The EC today responded to Intel’s claims that the Commission’s antitrust ruling against the company was meted out in error by releasing the full text of its decision and a selection of email correspondence and internal memos that make it clear that Intel (INTC) probably should have kept its big mouth shut.

“There have been some suggestions that the decision was based on allegations and not facts,” said Jonathan Todd, a commission spokesman. “With the publication of this decision, you can see precisely the details of the facts and how Intel broke the law.”

Below, a few of those details:

From a series of 2006 Lenovo e-mails:
“As you know I have been negotiating a special deal with Intel. The net is that Intel has made us a very attractive offer that we will end up taking. Our part of this deal is that we will award all business of shipments for the rest of this calendar year to Intel. In exchange, Intel will give us a special deal for both [geographical area] and [geographical area]. The deal is worth millions of dollars.”

“[two Lenovo executives] had a dinner with [an Intel executive] tonight (…). […] When we asked Intel what level of support we will get on NB [notebook] in next quarter, [he] told us (…) the deal is base[d] [sic] on our assumption to not launch AMD NB [notebook] platform. (…) Intel deal will not allow us to launch AMD.”

From a 2002 HP e-mail concerning the company’s negotiation of a rebate agreement with Intel:
“PLEASE DO NOT… communicate to the regions, your team members or AMD that we are constrained to 5 percent AMD by pursuing the Intel agreement.”

From a 2004 HP e-mail:
“You can NOT use the commercial AMD line in the channel in any country, it must be done direct. “If you do and we get caught (and we will) the Intel moneys (each month) is gone (they would terminate the deal). The risk is too high.”

From a 2004 Dell e-mail:
“[Intel senior executives] are prepared for [all-out war] if Dell joins the AMD exodus. We get ZERO MCP for at least one quarter while Intel ‘investigates the details’ (…) We’ll also have to bite and scratch to even hold 50%, including a commitment to NOT ship in Corporate. If we go in Opti [Optiplex corporate desktop line], they cut it to <20% and use the added MCP to compete against us" and "It looks 100% certain that Intel will take MCP to ZERO for at least one quarter while they 'review all of the numbers and implications.' (...) Appears likely that Intel would take MCP to <25% of current levels UNLESS we agree up front not to ship into [Product line]. If we do that, we're in 'détente' mode and can keep MPC [sic] at 50%. However, we don't meet [AMD Senior Executive]'s T&Cs [Terms and Conditions]. So, I would plan on MCP at <20% levels if we execute AMD across [Product line]and [Product line] as AMD wants."

Sounds pretty damning, no? Well, Intel doesn’t think so. In a hastily issued response, the company dismissed the EC’s release of the documents saying, “there’s nothing new here.”

“This Decision reflects the underlying bias we have come to expect from the case team that ran this investigation,” Intel said. “The Commission relied heavily on speculation found in e-mails from lower level employees that did not participate in the negotiation of the relevant agreements. At the same time, they ignored or minimized hard evidence of what actually happened, including highly authoritative documents, written declarations and testimony given under oath by senior individuals who negotiated the transactions at issue.”

Welcome to Thunderdome, Palm

John Paczkowski — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:22:54 +0000

“There’s room for three to five players in this space. We don’t have to beat each other to prosper.”

– Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein

Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein likes to say smart-phone makers “don’t have to beat each other to prosper,” but it’s beginning to look like they–or, rather, Palm–might have to. Because while the Pre may have put Palm (PALM) back in the game, it’s not clear how long it can keep it there. With competition in the emerging smart-phone market ratcheting up as we head into the holidays, some analysts are predicting that Palm’s quarterly sales may decline–sharply.

“[Palm’s] guidance of a sequential decline in revenues in the second quarter implies that Pre sales are not off to the races,” Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf wrote in a research note today. “Although Palm did not say what Pre sales were in the quarter, they appear to have been around 600,000 units, about 100,000 above our estimate. Palm indicated that revenues could fall to $240 million to $270 million in the second quarter, a number that implies that Pre sales could fall to 500,000 units vs. our previous estimate of 750,000 units.”

Interesting that Wolf pegs Pre sales as being above his estimate, since Palm hasn’t yet broken that number out. Indeed, in a conference call with analysts yesterday the company was so quick to dodge questions about Pre sales that I assumed it’s not an impressive number. But if the company really did ship 600,000 units as Wolf contends, that would suggest it’s doing pretty well at market, though certainly not as well as the Apple (AAPL) iPhone or Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry. Odd then, that Palm wouldn’t disclose a hard sales number.

“The Pre and its siblings running on Palm’s WebOS software platform appear to be a serious contender in the smartphone market,” Wolf concludes. “But it would be premature at this point to declare it a winner in view of the fact that the smartphone market will shortly be overrun with new phones from Motorola and others running on the Android platform as well as new BlackBerry models in time for the holiday selling season.”

Sure, there might be room for three to five players in the smart-phone space, as Rubinstein claims. But that space is currently occupied at least seven players–Apple, RIM, Nokia (NOK), Motorola (MOT), Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Palm. Which means somebody’s got to go. So while Palm might not have to beat anyone to prosper, it may have to, to survive.

Palm Pay Developers to Write Apps for webOS? “Rubbish.”

John Paczkowski — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:46:10 +0000

Lots of jawing yesterday over reports that Palm is paying developers to bring their mobile apps to the webOS platform. In an interview with TechCrunch earlier this week, the founders of CitySourced–a “real time mobile civic engagement tool”–suggested that Palm is paying them to develop for it (how much? “Under $500,000”).

An interesting claim. Certainly, Palm’s new platform would benefit from some new developers, and offering them a bit of cash to come on board isn’t unprecedented. Remember, KPCB manages a $100 million iFund that’s driving development for the iPhone OS from Apple (AAPL).

But according to the folks I’ve spoken with, Palm isn’t paying developers to write apps for webOS. One source inside Palm dismissed the idea that the company would do so as “rubbish.” Three others in a position to know said they’d never heard of such an incentive. And none of the mobile app developers I’ve contacted have been approached by Palm with such an offer or heard of anyone who has been approached.

Odd, isn’t it? Why would Palm (PALM) offer financial incentives to a developer who created an unreleased civic engagement tool and not to one who offers a popular game? Or a killer productivity app? Or an iTunes App Store top seller?

CitySourced has not responded to repeated requests for comment and clarification.

Live from Apple's "Let's Rock" Event: iPod Updates, Games, Nano Video Cameras

John Paczkowski — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:33:38 +0000

Apple has sold some 225 million iPods to date, making it one of the most popular electronic devices ever. And it’s sure to sell even more after the updates the company announced at this morning’s event. Among them: Larger, cheaper iPod touches and nanos with cameras and FM radios.

Following introductory remarks by Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs, Phil Schiller offers details, noting that “the iPod has 73.8 percent market share. The next biggest category is ‘other,’ and after that, SanDisk and then Microsoft pulling up the rear.”

Schiller adds that Apple has sold 20 million iPod touches since the device debuted. He runs through a lengthy sales pitch for the iPod touch, touting it as a killer pocket computer and taking potshots at rivals like Dell (DELL) along the way.

Moving on to games, Schiller notes the discrepancy between the number of games on gaming platforms like the Nintendo DS and the iPod touch. The iPhone OS, he notes, has 21,178 games. The DS has just 3,680. Point taken.

Moving on to some new game demos now. First up: Ubisoft with Assassin’s Creed 2, which, we are told, is “all about visceral combat, brutal hand-to-hand combat and one-shot kills.” Behind the presenter, a warrior is mercilessly beaten into submission.

Schiller returns to the stage, “Boy, that looks like fun.”

Tapulous, the developer of Tap Tap Revenge, and Gameloft, follow, both introducing new games. Gameloft’s Nova–a first-person shooter with multiplayer option–seems a far more compelling effort than Tapulous’s Riddim Ribbon, which appears to be a Black Eyed Peas-heavy variation of Tap-Tap.

Up next, Electronic Arts, which is apparently headlining the games section of today’s event. EA’s Travis Boatman takes the stage to introduce Madden NFL 10. The game boasts both custom-kick and draw-a-play-on-screen features developed specifically for the iPhone OS. Madden NFL 10 is available today.

Schiller again returns to the stage. “The iPod touch is the most affordable gateway to the App Store,” he says, adding that $199 is a “magic price point” in the iPod market.

With that, he announces the iPod touch price cuts we heard about earlier this morning: An 8GB model for $199, 32GB for $299, and 64GB for $399. All three devices are significantly faster, says Schiller. Interestingly, none seem to feature that rumored camera.

Price drops as well for the nano, but we knew about these. Apple has dropped the price of the iPod shuffle as well: $59 and $79. And the company is offering them in a new selection of colors. Plus, there’s a special edition of the shuffle crafted from stainless steel.

Steve Jobs returns to the stage. So those are the iPods, but there is one more thing: A video camera. He talks about the exploding video market, mentions the Flip, etc. “We want to get in on this market as well and we’re doing it for free….Boy, this really is the new Apple,” he quips.

Yes, the iPod nano does indeed now feature a video camera. The video quality looks impressive. Whoa: Apple has also added FM radio, a voice recorder and a pedometer to the nano. New polished anodized aluminum colors. 8GB model for $149, 16GB model for $179.

After a few concluding remarks about the new iPod lineup, Jobs announces what has become an annual tradition at these events: A live performance. Today’s artist: Norah Jones.

The end of her set concludes today’s event. No iPlatform. No Beatles on iTunes. But lots of product refreshes, software intros, and price cuts. Plus: Steve Jobs is definitely back.

Live from Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event

iPod Updates, Games, Nano Video Cameras

iTunes 9, iTunes LP, Home Sharing, Genius Mixes

Steve Jobs: “I’m Vertical, Back at Apple and Loving Every Day of It”

Event Photos by Adam Tow

And for You Windows Users, We’re Offering Snow Leopard Home Premium, Snow Leopard Ultimate and Snow Leopard Insanely Great

John Paczkowski — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:03:58 +0000

Apple has repeatedly characterized its forthcoming Snow Leopard operating system as an under-the-hood upgrade to the Mac OS, one that focuses on performance enhancements rather than new features. And clearly, it’s designed to set a new standard for quality and lay the foundation for future OS X innovation. But with its $29 price point, it’s intended to do something else as well: Undermine Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows 7.

So says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who, in a research note issued this week, suggests that there’s more value in Snow Leopard than just the minor bump it will give to Apple’s (AAPL) bottom line.

“We believe Apple is using a minor upgrade to its operating system as an opportunity to sell it at a lower price ($29 vs. $129 previously) and market the new OS as a selling point for the Mac platform over the Windows platform,” Munster writes. “In other words, Apple is promoting the Mac platform as a superior alternative to Windows in terms of newer technology, more frequently, for less money. The release of Snow Leopard is not about new features; rather, it is about keeping Mac users up to date with the latest technology vs. Windows XP and Vista users on antiquated technology.”