According to Oracle (ORCL) CEO Larry Ellison, Sun (JAVA) is already losing $100 million a month as it waits for regulatory approval, and judging from the price of the company’s stock today, it may be losing even more than that. Shares in Sun slid to $8.11–about 15 percent below Oracle’s offer price and a far cry from the $9.18 they hit in mid-October.

Clearly, investors are alarmed by this latest turn of events, though industry observers say there’s little reason for them to be. Morgan Stanley, for example, believes Oracle’s acquisition of Sun will win EU approval with few, if any, modifications to the MySQL database software about which regulators are so concerned.

“Based on our diligence, we believe the EC is likely to approve the deal with no remedies or remedies pertaining to MySQL’s licensing,” the research house said in a note to clients today. “It is highly unlikely that Oracle restructures the deal (e.g. spins MySQL) or walks away.”

Morgan Stanley’s call: The deal will go through and at $9.50 per share. As the firm notes, the EU hasn’t blocked a U.S.-based transaction since GE/Honeywell in 2001.

The Financial Times reports that Oracle’s refusal to offer any concessions to European antitrust regulators may lead them to issue a formal statement of objections to the deal. A complaint could come “within days,” sources tell the FT, though they note that it’s possible that one side or the other will back down before a formal complaint is filed.

If an objection is issued, it will inevitably prolong the entire review process, something Oracle and Sun can ill afford. As Ellison himself recently noted, Sun is losing $100 million a month waiting for approval of the deal.

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• Q: What’s the Difference Between Neelie Kroes and Larry Ellison?
• Sun to Sack 3,000
• Former MySQL Boss to EC: Approve Oracle-Sun Deal
• Ellison: Oracle Is the New IBM
• Mr. Ellison Asks That His Burgers Be Served With Freedom Fries Until Further Notice

BEA Systems said this morning it is willing to consider Oracle’s takeover agreement, or one put forth by another potential purchaser, but only if it is willing to pony up $21 a share, or $8.2 billion.

And it will “vigorously oppose” any purchase attempts for less. “We continue to believe that Oracle’s unsolicited proposal to acquire BEA at $17 per share significantly undervalues BEA, and is therefore not in the best interests of BEA shareholders,” BEA’s board said in a statement. “Accordingly, we will continue to vigorously oppose a sale to Oracle at $17 per share. Over the last several weeks, Oracle has repeatedly asked us for the price at which we would be willing to begin negotiations, and the Board has concluded, after consultation with its financial adviser Goldman Sachs, that it is prepared to authorize negotiations with third parties including Oracle at a price of $21 per share.”

Seems BEA isn’t too worried about missing the deadline Oracle set for BEA to accept its “generous” original bid. Question now is, whether that bid is a PeopleSoft-style “best and final offer”–i.e., one that can be sweetened a bit or a final “best and final offer.”

BEA Systems’ board formally rejected Oracle’s $17-per-share offer to acquire it last Friday, saying the company is trying to buy it on the cheap. “BEA is worth substantially more to Oracle, to others and importantly, to our shareholders than the price indicated in your letter,” William Klein, BEA’s vice-president of business planning and development, wrote to Oracle.

And by shareholders, Klein apparently meant billionaire investor Carl Icahn–who, though he’s been pushing for the company to sell itself, said in a statement that he agreed that, at $17 a share, the price was too low.

And perhaps it is. At this writing, BEA is trading well above $18, suggesting that Oracle’s offer of $17 a share is a tad anemic. And Oracle surely knows this as well as anyone. After all, this isn’t the first time it’s low-balled a potential acquisition. Oracle began its pursuit of PeopleSoft with a first stingy bid that it later sweetened. And like BEA, PeopleSoft spurned its advances, which in its case was not a winning strategy–because Oracle CEO Larry Ellison has the patience of the devil himself in these situations, especially when he can hurt a competitor’s business during takeover wrangling.

“This is very clearly thought out,” Ellison said after Oracle first besieged PeopleSoft. “I think we’re likely to be successful and we are very determined to see this through to the end. … With or without us, PeopleSoft can’t survive. They can’t compete in this business in the long term.”

Message to BEA: Like PeopleSoft, you will be assimilated. And, BEA’s Klein best be careful, lest he go out like former PeopleSoft CEO Craig Conway, of whom Ellison once said: “I think at one point, ‘Craigey’ thought I was going to shoot his dog, Bear. If Craigey and Bear were standing next to each other and I had one bullet, trust me, it wouldn’t be for the dog.”

If we maintain our trajectory and IBM maintains their trajectory, we could pass them as early as the end of this year or certainly next year to be the No. 2 player in middleware.”

–Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, Sept. 21

Carl Icahn’s recent appeals to BEA Systems management to discuss a possible sale of the company seem to have set Oracle’s salivary glands flowing. This week the CRM gourmand made an unsolicited $6.66 billion bid for the business-management software maker.

In a letter to BEA’s board Tuesday, Oracle offered $17 a share for BEA–a 25% premium over BEA’s closing stock price yesterday. “We believe our all-cash offer provides the best value for BEA’s shareholders and the best home for BEA’s employees and customers,” said Oracle President Charles Phillips. “This proposal is the culmination of repeated conversations with BEA’s management over the last several years. We look forward to completing a friendly transaction as soon as possible.”

We’ll have to see about that. According to Kevin Faulkner, BEA’s senior vice president of investor relations, the company’s not for sale. ‘Course, PeopleSoft CEO Craig Conway said the same thing back in 2003 and look how that turned out.

Anyway, if Tuesday’s offer leads to a deal, Oracle will have spent some $28 billion on acquisitions–33 of them–in the last three years or so. A vast sum, but one apparently well spent. The company’s recent purchases have been widely credited for a 26% spike in earnings in its latest fiscal year and for a 91% increase in its stock price since November 2005. If things continue along that way, we may see Larry Ellison’s IBM prediction come to pass sooner, rather than later.