Now this is just getting silly.

Pali Research says sales of the Palm Pre are slowing. RBC’s Mike Abramsky says they aren’t and claims 325,000 to 375,000 have been sold to date, ahead of his expectations.

Citing some decidedly unscientific poll data, Jesup and Lamont analyst Kevin Dede suggests the device is plagued by build-quality issues and a high exchange/return rate, potentially 40 percent. Abramsky says it’s between two and three percent and calls BS on the build-quality issue.

“Most buyers appear delighted with their new Pre user experience,” Abramsky said in a research note Friday. “Pre satisfaction appears higher than legacy Palm devices (e.g., Treo), affirming improved execution from the ‘New’ Palm, including engineering, manufacturing, quality and process improvements.”

So, Pre sales are slowing. Or, they’re not.

And exchange/return rates are high.

Unless they’re not.

And these analysts are on point.

Unless, of course, they’re not. Too bad it’s impossible to tell without official numbers from Palm (PALM) or Sprint (S).

“We still have a backlog of subscribers but it’s not unmanageable and we get shipments every week. We’ll be short for a while but we’re catching up.”

– Sprint Nextel CFO Bob Brust, June 24, 2009

[This post was updated at 12:36 with comment from Sprint.]

Sprint best step up its marketing efforts for the Pre because according to Pali Research, demand for Palm’s new device is slowing, and quickly.

During the week ending June 26, Pali estimates that Sprint sold 50,000-60,000 Pre handsets. In the weeks that followed, Sprint sold “less than 40,000,” and then, “over 30,000”–again, according to Pali. Now the research outfit says Pre sales have declined by another 5,000 units.

“We really aren’t sure what Sprint is waiting for in stepping up the ad campaign but Palm Pre sales have continued to slow over the past two weeks and we believe Sprint is currently selling roughly 25,000 per week, down from over 30,000 two weeks ago and over 50,000 in late June,” Pali analyst Walter Piecyk said in a research note this morning. “Advertising could increase in the coming weeks but we are headed into August and there is a new BlackBerry now vying for the attention of wireless customers.”

And don’t forget that $99 Apple iPhone 3G.

Piecyk concludes by suggesting that Sprint (S), by failing to market the hell out of the Pre, is fumbling the best opportunity to come its way in a while.

“Slowing sales cannot be helping CEO Dan Hesse’s ability to extend the exclusive period for the Pre as Palm (PALM) likely views a Verizon launch as something that could materially stimulate sales,” Piecyk said.

“Hesse has never been one to resort to price cuts but we wonder if dropping the Pre to $99 could reignite sales,” the analyst continued. “…Sprint’s future is certainly not tied to the Pre but this is a great product that could highlight their data network. We believe they are squandering this opportunity over the past few weeks. Sprint is still not in a strong enough position to let good opportunities pass them by.”

And what does Sprint think of that assessment? Not much. Reached for comment, a spokesperson told me: “we are very pleased with the performance of the Pre and the excitement it’s drawn; we are selling all the quantities that are being delivered to us and we are ramping up advertising this month — did you see the full-page ads this week comparing the value and performance of the Pre to the iPhone? — and we are expanding availability of the handset at Best Buy, Radio Shack and online, with future expansion of availability planned. As Dan Hesse noted in California today, it takes a number of months — through a whole ramped-up sales cycle — to determine the real performance of a handset in the marketplace. Folks like to speculate and toss around ideas on the internet all the time, but the truth is Sprint is very happy with how the Pre is doing.”

Reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings this morning, AT&T said it activated 2.4 million iPhone accounts–35 percent of them for new customers. And it saw its wireless data revenue rise 37.2 percent to $3.4 billion and subscriber churn fall to 1.09 percent, a record low.

Clearly, the debut of the iPhone 3GS and Apple’s decision to cut the price of the low-end iPhone to $99 had an enormous impact on AT&T’s bottom line. “AT&T iPhone subscribers, both new customers and upgrades, take two-year contracts with data packages,” the company said. “As a result, robust iPhone demand drives strong recurring revenues and substantial long-term value.”

Litter wonder, then, AT&T (T) is said to be doing it all it can to renew its iPhone exclusivity deal. The company is clearly dependent on the device for some of its most recent gains.

In fact, Commresearch analyst Gregory Lundberg says that were the iPhone to be excluded from the company’s latest financials, 25 percent fewer people would have signed up for its service in the second quarter than in the first. So if it’s true that Verizon (VZ) is in talks with Apple (AAPL) about adding the iPhone to its product lineup, AT&T has a lot to worry about, indeed.

As Pali Research recently noted, “As the iPhone exclusivity period rolls off between AT&T Wireless and Apple, a material number of AT&T customers will flock to Verizon’s superior network. We estimate that nearly a third of AT&T’s post-paid customers are being retained by AT&T primarily because of the iPhone exclusivity.”

So says Pali Research, which in a research note this week argued that AT&T (T) should be very worried about the prospect of Verizon adding the iPhone to its handset lineup.

“As the iPhone exclusivity period rolls off between AT&T Wireless and Apple, a material number of AT&T customers will flock to Verizon’s superior network,” the firm states. “We estimate that nearly a third of AT&T’s post-paid customers are being retained by AT&T primarily because of the iPhone exclusivity.”

An unsettling thought for AT&T, whose five-year agreement to be the iPhone’s sole U.S. provider is reportedly set to expire in 2010. Especially since there are several compelling reasons for Apple to offer the iPhone to Verizon (VZ).

For one thing, the move would give Apple access to about 80 million new Verizon customers. For another, it would bring the iconic device to a carrier that might, you know, reasonably support all its features, a carrier whose LTE “4G” network isn’t four-to-five years off, a carrier whose name doesn’t elicit laughter and jeers at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference.

So why extend AT&T’s exclusive deal? If there’s a good reason, Pali doesn’t see it. The research house is betting on the iPhone coming to Verizon. And when it does…

“We expect AT&T Wireless net subscriber additions to fall to less than 1 million in 2010 from more than 4 million in 2008. With an LTE-based iPhone in 2011, we believe Verizon could take even more market share resulting in a contraction in AT&T’s subscriber base in that year.”

Today brings another Palm-related research note, this one from Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette. He claims that Pre sales are “robust.” According to Faucette’s channel checks, Palm is selling about 40,000 Pres per week, a “normalized” sell-through rate that he says will continue through August.

So who’s right? Piecyk or Faucette? Who knows? Until Palm (PALM) and Sprint (S) go on record with real sales metrics, we’ll have to use our imaginations. Which is pretty much what all these analysts appear to be doing right now, anyway. Honestly, they might as well be issuing research notes on jelly bean jar guessing games.

Oh, and for what it’s worth, Palm and Sprint are not willing to release sales numbers right now. Reached for comment, Sprint told me, “We’re excited by the response to Palm Pre. Demand continues to be strong, and we are working closely with our partners at Palm to meet the needs of every customer as quickly as possible.” And Palm told me me to call Sprint…

“We estimate that sales of the Palm Pre slowed again over the past week compared to the prior week but likely remain over 30,000 compared to less than 40,000 in the prior week and our estimate of 50,000-60,000 in the week ending June 26th,” Pali analyst Walter Piecyk said in a research note this morning.

Now, to be fair, the holiday weekend may have negatively affected sales. And another report from Piper Jaffray suggests that the Pre is cutting into sales of RIM’s Blackberry. So there’s that. Still, if Pali’s estimates are correct, it’s pretty clear that demand is tapering off a bit.

Perhaps it’s time to ramp up the Pre’s marketing. Problem is, marketing costs money and Palm doesn’t have very much of that right now.

“You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.”

– Palm investor Roger McNamee

Palm (PALM) seems to have satiated pent-up early demand for its new Pre smartphone, constrained supplies be damned. In a pair of investor notes issued today, analysts at Pali Research and JP Morgan say that sales of the Pre have tapered off to a point where supply and demand are roughly in parity.

“We have concluded our 3rd round of channel checks for the Pre,” writes JP Morgan analyst Paul Coster, who notes that demand for the handset is hovering at about 40,000 per week. “The gap between supply and demand has closed at Sprint and BestBuy stores, waitlists are eliminated or down, and most stores now have Pre devices in stock.”

Pali Research analyst Walter Piecyk also surveyed the Pre landscape and reached a similar conclusion, though he sees the slowing of sales as a bit more pronounced. “We believe that Palm Pre sales have slowed over the past week for Sprint to under 40,000 from 50,000-60,000 last week,” he writes. “…We suspect that if sales continue to moderate, Sprint would increase its marketing budget for the product. The marketing budget behind the product has been somewhat limited to date compared to the marketing push that Apple does.”

Indeed. And let’s not forget that Apple (AAPL) has a new handset on the market that’s been selling quite well. Makes you wonder if this ebb in demand for the Pre is somehow related.

Guess it’s looking like Palm investor Roger McNamee’s hyperbolic predictions about iPhone-to-Pre conversion aren’t going to quite pan out.

The Googles of the world, they are the Custer of the modern world. We are the Sioux nation. They will lose this war if they go to war. The notion that the new kids on the block have taken over is a false notion.”

–Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons, May 9, 2007

Lousy historical analogies aside, Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons’s ill-conceived comment on the current media landscape was in some ways an apt one. After all, one could say that Time Warner has long been an organization with “too many chiefs and not enough Indians.” Too many working parts, too, according to some who’d like to see the company sell off a few, before Google and Co. commandeers its primary advertising supply and forces it onto a reservation on the south bank of the Missouri.

In a note to clients this morning, Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield said that the time has come to break Time Warner apart. “It is time for the complexity of Time Warner to come to an end,” Greenfield wrote, suggesting the company consider divesting itself of ts publishing segment or AOL, which Greenfield describes as “unfixed.” “We believe the board and management have had long enough and must act over the next 12 months to radically reshape Time Warner–with its upcoming board (late July) likely to begin laying the groundwork for change,” he continued. “The synergy between Time Warner’s divisions is limited at best; sometimes even creating the risk of destroying value at one division to help another.”

Interesting, eh? Maybe Carl Icahn, the billionaire financier who unsuccessfully tried to force a breakup of Time Warner last year, didn’t misread shareholder sentiment so much as act on it prematurely. Makes you wonder what the topic of conversation was when Parsons and his top deputy, Jeff Bewkes, lunched with Yahoo chairman and former CEO Terry Semel at Allen & Co.’s Sun Valley media and technology conference last week.