Digital Daily » operating system

Latest PC Shipment Forecast Considerably Less Hysterical Than Predecessors

John Paczkowski — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:30:21 +0000

So that 11.9 percent decline in PC shipments that was supposed to occur this year? Not gonna happen, says Gartner. Neither is the 9.2 percent decline the research outfit projected back in March. Same for the 6.6 percent decline it forecast in May, the six percent decline predicted in June and the two percent decline it foresaw in September.

Nope. Turns out that 2009 PC shipments, which were once thought to be headed for certain disaster, aren’t going to decline at all. They’re going to grow.

By 2.8 percent.

Seems that rising consumer demand for netbooks is boosting unit sales to better-than-expected levels. That said, the market value of those sales is still projected to decline.

“Blame this year’s drop in market value on the unprecedented declines in PC average selling prices (ASPs) we’ve seen this year,” said Gartner (IT) research director George Shiffler. “The rapid decline in PC ASPs reflects a marked shift towards lower price points as customers have looked for ‘good enough’ PCs at the cheapest price, and vendors have tried to spur market growth by catering to ever-lower price points. We expect PC ASP declines to slow as the market recovers, but given the market’s competitive dynamic, we don’t see PC ASPs rising any time soon. As a result, growth in the market value of shipments will significantly lag shipment growth next year and beyond.”

One last point worth noting here. Despite Microsoft’s (MSFT) claims that sales of Windows 7 have been “fantastic,” Gartner says the operating system isn’t likely to have much impact on holiday PC sales. “We just don’t see consumers buying new PCs solely because of Windows 7,” said Shiffler. “We are expecting a modest bump in fourth-quarter consumer demand as vendors promote new Windows 7-based PCs, but the attraction will be the new PCs, not Windows 7.”

According to Shiffler, “The more critical question is, ‘When will businesses make their move to Windows 7, and what will they do about replacements in the interim?’ We don’t see businesses mainstreaming Windows 7 much before the end of 2010. We think many businesses will try to shift replacements to the back end of next year so as to sync their adoption of Windows 7 with their PC refresh. That will put a damper on early 2010 shipments.”

Google Uncrates Chrome

John Paczkowski — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:19 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Chrome: The End of Desktop Apps

John Paczkowski — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:02:23 +0000

Direct from Google headquarters and liveblogged by John Paczkowski, Google unveiled its Chrome OS. This is the first of three segments:

Google did not offer a beta of the new operating system today. Vice President of Product Management Sundar Pichai says Google is a year away from an official launch. The company, however, is making Chrome OS code available today.

According to Pichai, Google’s Chrome browser has some 40 million users one year after launch. He boasts about the browser’s speed, noting that it handles Javascript 39 times faster than Internet Explorer. There will be three more big Chrome announcements in the future: Chrome for Mac, Chrome for Linux and the debut of Chrome Extensions.

Google’s goal is to ensure that Web applications function as well as desktop apps, Pichai explains. The company is figuring out a way for Web apps to safely take advantage of the operating system in the same way that desktop apps do. A few examples: Graphics, video/audio applications, real-time communication, notification and local storage.

“By 2010 we expect to have all these things built into Chrome.”

The advent of Chrome coincides with a perfect storm of converging trends, Pichai notes, including the tremendous popularity of netbooks during the recession, the growing acceptance of cloud apps and the rapid innovation in mobile devices. Smartphones are becoming more like laptops, he adds, and laptops are becoming more like smartphones. Is there a better level of computing available for these devices? There is, says Pichai, and he believes it is Chrome OS.

Google's Chrome OS: "It Just Works"

John Paczkowski — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:51:03 +0000

Speaking at Microsoft’s Worldwide Partner Conference in New Orleans this past July, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said of Google’s forthcoming Chrome OS, “Who knows what this thing is?”

Today, he found out. The operating system, a direct challenge to Microsoft Windows, was on display at a media gathering at the Google HQ this morning.

Sundar Pichai, vice president of product management, and Matthew Papakipos, engineering director for Google Chrome OS, presided over the event, which the company described as a “technical announcement.”

That meant that Google (GOOG) was not releasing a beta of the operating system this week, as had been rumored.

That said, it was an overview of Chrome, as well as Google’s plans for its launch in 2010, so let the Chrome OS liveblogging begin:

There will be no beta today. Pichai says Google is still a year away from an official launch. However, the company is making the code available today.
Pichai says that a year after launch, the Chrome browser has some 40 millions users. He boasts about the browser’s speed, noting that it handles Javascript 39 times faster than Microsoft’s (MSFT) Internet Explorer. There will be three more big Chrome announcements sometime in the future: Chrome for Mac, Chrome for Linux and the debut of Chrome Extensions.
Google’s goal is to ensure that Web applications function as well as desktop apps. Pichai says that the company is figuring out a way for Web apps to safely take advantage of the operating system in the way desktop apps do. A few examples: Graphics, video/audio applications, real-time communication, notification and local storage.

“By 2010 we expect to have all these things built into Chrome,” Pichai adds.
The advent of Chrome coincides with a perfect storm of converging trends, Pichai says, noting the tremendous popularity of netbooks during the recession, the growing acceptance of cloud apps and the rapid innovation in mobile devices. Smartphones are becoming more like laptops, Pichai adds, and laptops are becoming more like smartphones. Is there a better level of computing available for these devices?

There is, according to Pichai, and Google believes it is Chrome OS.
Among Chrome OS’s advantages, Pichai says: Speed, simplicity and security. Every application will be a Web application. There will be no desktop apps. Chrome OS is essentially a browser with a few modifications. All data in the Chrome OS resides in the cloud. Pichai: “We want all of personal computing to work that way….If I lose my Chrome machine, I should be able to go out, buy a new [one] and re-create my previous computing experience easily.”

Chrome OS will run completely inside the browser security model, he adds, noting that security is one of Google’s top priorities along with speed. “Turning on a PC should be like turning on your TV,” he says.
Chrome OS is very similar in appearance to the Chrome browser. “Chrome OS is Chrome,” says Pichai. Google made it look like a browser, because the browser is familiar.
And indeed, Chrome OS does look quite a bit like a browser. Multiple apps load into tabs, for example. It also features “Panels,” which Pichai describes as persistent lightweight windows. “All Chrome data resides in the cloud. Anything you put in the machine is immediately available to you anywhere.”
As netbooks become more advanced and battery life improves, they will evolve into entertainment devices, says Pichai, who notes that via Google Books, a netbook can become an e-reader, and, through YouTube, a video device.
A quick demo of the user interface, which seems very simple and intuitive. “It just works,” says Pichai in an unintentional nod to Apple (AAPL).

An interesting remark: Anyone who writes an app for the Web has written an app for Chrome, says Pichai, joking that Microsoft is already developing for it.
Speed, simplicity and security, says Pichai. We’re trying to make the computing experience delightful.

With that, Pichai hands the stage over to Engineering Director Matt Papakipos.

Papakipos, too, offers the “we want to make computing delightful” sound byte and notes once again that turning on the PC should be like turning on the TV.
Chrome OS eliminates the bootloader, auto-launching the browser. The OS also auto-updates itself, making sure that it’s always current with security patches, etc. Everything from the firmware to the kernel is secured with a cryptographic signature to ensure a secure boot. In the event malware is detected, the system repairs itself automatically.
The basic application security protocol for current operating systems allows apps the same privileges as the user. This presents obvious security issues. Whenever you install a new app, you’re taking a risk, says Papakipos.

But Web applications like those that Chrome OS use, are different. They are Web apps, so they don’t have system-level privileges. Additionally, all apps run in secured sandboxes that are separate from one other and from the OS. Finally, all apps must be signed and verified before each use.
In terms of file systems, Chrome’s is locked down. It’s a read-only root-file system, obviously quite different from other operating systems. All user data are encrypted and synched to the cloud. Essentially, Google uses the PC for caching. Again, if you should lose your machine, you buy a new one, fire it up and it synchs with the cloud, restoring your previous computing experience.
How will Google bring Chrome OS to market? The company is working with vendors to specify reference hardware. You cannot download and install Chrome on just any device, you will have to purchase a Chrome device. Google is looking at a launch window of late 2010, before the holidays.
Google sounds very concerned about the end-user Chrome OS experience. Pichai says the company wants to ensure that the displays, keyboard, etc., on the netbooks that run Chrome are robust and easy to use.
Pichai wraps things up, but before the Q&A, we’re shown a short explanatory video. “The first thing I want to do when I fire up my computer is browse the Internet….If there isn’t any Internet, I might not even use my computer….What if when you pressed on, your PC turned on, what if your operating system was more like a Web browser…what if it was a browser?…Chrome OS is a totally rethought computer that lets you focus on the Internet, which is what most of use our computers for these days anyway.”

Q&A

At this point, Pichai opens the event to questions:

If you’re specifying hardware components, do you must have an idea of what they’ll cost?

A: We expect Chrome netbooks to be in the price range of what people have come to expect….We are not specifying a price target. Price will be determined at the OEM level.

Will the APIs support W3C standards?

A: We’re working very closely with the W3C to standardize as much as we can….In general, we want to see everything standardized across multiple browsers.

Will there be an application store?

A: The Web offers hundreds of millions of applications. Our job is to make people aware of them.

What about desktop applications that are not available on the Web?

A: We expect most of our users to have a second machine at home….Chrome OS is about a delightful experience on the Web….If you’re a lawyer spending your entire day on contracts, etc., this is not the machine for you.

Will you support Microsoft Silverlight?

A: In the case of certain selection plug-ins, we are working to integrate them. No comment beyond that.

Since Chrome is open source, could people build their own variations?

A: Yes. We expect people will do many interesting things with it.

Do you see Chrome running on laptops or desktops?

A: We’re initially focused on netbook-like form factors–clamshells, etc. That said, the OS is being developed to work on other devices.

Is there any level of offline access? What happens when I’m on a plane and don’t want to pay for Wi-Fi?

A: Chrome devices are primarily intended to be Internet-connected. That said, it will have some caching abilities so, for example, you could play a game offline.

Virtualization?

A: Yes. You could run Chrome today on a virtual machine.

Are you working with outfits like Adobe to, say, build a Web-friendly version of Photoshop?

A: We’re very excited by things like Photoshop on the Web and we’re working hard to make that possible.

Will Android apps work on Chrome? Are there plans for third-party apps?

A: [Pichai dodges this one.] If it’s a Web app, it will work on Chrome. The Web works very, very well for our purposes.

Will Chrome work on both X86 and ARM?

A: Yes.

Is there a direct business model for Chrome OS or is this another variation of the-more-people-that-use-the-Web-the-better-for-Google?

A: We are working with partners. No plans for advertising. That said, Pichai notes again that anything that runs on the Web will run on Chrome. And of course, AdWords does, indeed, run on the Web.

[Sergey Brin joins the Q&A]

Do you want Android Apps to run on Chrome?

A: We are focused on creating the use case in which everything is a Web application, but hopefully we can do more in the future.

How does Chrome handle peripherals? Can it print?

A: Most keyboards, cameras, phones, etc., will work. In terms of printing…yes, Chrome OS will print and we’re working hard to make that possible.

What is Chrome’s strategic position for Google?

A: [Brin]: Call us dumb businessmen, but we really focus on user needs rather than focus on business strategies. We believe that the Web platform is a much simpler way of computing for individuals to use, and that’s a very important need in the market right now. That’s what we’re trying to fulfill.

What Did Apple Want With AdMob?

John Paczkowski — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:04:37 +0000

Before AdMob accepted Google’s $750 million takeover offer, it was approached by Apple. This according to “people familiar with the matter,” who tell Bloomberg that Cupertino was also interested in the mobile advertising company.

Odd to learn that Apple (AAPL) was considering such a move. After all, advertising isn’t exactly one of its core businesses, though it might have become one had it managed to buy AdMob, which is one of the largest sellers of advertisements on the iPhone.

“If a lot of traffic goes through my devices, why can’t I become the middleman that serves ads against that inventory?” said IDC analyst Karsten Weide. “AdMob would have allowed them to do that quickly.”

Indeed. If that’s what Apple wanted. And perhaps the company is interested in expanding into online advertising, as this “Advertising in Operating System” patent seems to suggest.

That said, it’s equally conceivable that Apple met with AdMob hoping to temper Google’s (GOOG) fast-expanding footprint in the mobile space and on the iPhone. With the acquisition of AdMob, the search sovereign is now the Internet’s largest mobile advertising company, with a dominant presence on the iPhone and any handset running its Android OS. Perhaps Apple’s intent was simply to make this a more costly endeavor for Google. But perhaps it was something more.

Dell Dials Up Smartphones

John Paczkowski — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:00:53 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Dellephone: China Mobile, Claro and Then, AT&T?

John Paczkowski — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:22:59 +0000

After nearly three years of rumor and speculation, Dell is finally entering the smartphone market–in China and Brazil. Later this month, China Mobile and Brazil’s Claro will begin selling the company’s Mini 3, a handset designed around Google’s (GOOG) Android mobile operating system.

Why China and Brazil? Well, for one thing, they are developing markets. For another, Dell (DELL) already has partners there.

“Besides size (China Mobile has over 500 million subscribers, and Claro serves more than 42 million), we have existing telecom partnerships with them,” Dell blogger Lionel Menchaca said in a post. “Back in April, we were the first to embed China Mobile’s technology into our Mini 10 netbook. And if you’ve been watching, you know Dell has agreements with lots of other providers like Vodafone in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. We’ve partnered with AT&T and Verizon in the United States to offer mobile broadband on different products, and we have agreements with other carriers in Asia.”

Interesting. Presumably this means we’ll see the Mini rolled out in short order in these other countries as well. As you may recall, Dell was rumored to be building an Android handset for AT&T (T) in early October.

Well, What Did You Expect Him to Say? Windows 7 Is Selling Poorly?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:50:10 +0000

Microsoft’s new Windows 7 operating system is selling quite well, according to CEO Steve Ballmer. In remarks at a press conference in Tokyo Thursday, Ballmer said that Windows 7’s first 10 days at market have been more successful than those of any of its predecessors.

“We’ve had a great response here in Japan,” Ballmer said. “Certainly we’ve seen initial sales be fantastic. The first ten days were bigger than the first ten days of XP or Vista or any other Windows launch that we have done.”

And indeed that would seem to be the case. According to research outfit NPD, Microsoft (MSFT) sales of Windows 7 in its first few days on the market were more than triple Vista sales for the same length of time.

Windows 7: Does the Wow Start Now?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 18:00:28 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Best Thing About Windows 7? It's Not Vista.

John Paczkowski — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:55:41 +0000

“I’m Steve Ballmer, and I’m a Windows 7 PC.”

With those words, spoken at a big company event in New York City (see video below), the Microsoft CEO launched the newest version of Windows, the one he hopes will regain the customer goodwill lost with its predecessor, Vista. There’s no question that the stakes are particularly high this time around. Vista was widely maligned as mediocre, and Microsoft (MSFT) needs something to reverse three quarters of declining Windows sales.

By most accounts, Windows 7 fits that bill. Reviews of the new operating system have been largely positive, calling it faster, more secure and easier to use that its predecessors. Our own Walt Mossberg describes it as “the best version of Windows Microsoft has produced…a boost to productivity and a pleasure to use.” Quite an endorsement, but one that was hard won. According to Microsoft, more than eight million people participated in the Windows 7 beta program–more than for any Microsoft beta program ever.

In any event, if any OS has a shot at succeeding Windows XP as the world’s most ubiquitous operating system, it’s Windows 7. “I think Windows 7 will be the biggest, one of the biggest, products to hit the tech industry this year,” Ballmer told CNBC. “Just because Windows is used on about one billion computers around the planet. There’ll be another 300 million machines that ship this year, and the diversity of PCs that ship with Windows 7, the simplicity that Windows 7 brings–I think it’s a pretty banner year.”

Microsoft’s Bing Deal

John Paczkowski — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:15:55 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Windows 7 to Harry Potter: Expelliarmus

John Paczkowski — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:01:58 +0000

Here’s an interesting Windows 7 stat as we near the operating system’s official release: It’s Amazon (AMZN) U.K.’s biggest pre-ordered product of all time. In fact, the online retailer has received more pre-orders for Windows 7 than it did for J.K. Rowling’s final “Harry Potter” book.

“The launch of Windows 7 has exceeded everyone’s expectations, storming ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows as the biggest grossing pre-order product of all time at Amazon.co.uk,” Amazon’s Brian McBride told the Telegraph. “Demand is still going strong. Over the past three months, only Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol has sold more copies than Windows 7, which is an incredible achievement for a software product.”

And an incredible achievement for Microsoft (MSFT), especially after that monument to disappointment, Windows Vista. Seems those early discounts and launch parties paid off. Well, maybe not the launch parties.

Big Apple

John Paczkowski — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:00:46 +0000

[ See post to watch video ]

Analyst Favors iPhone Carrier Polyamory

John Paczkowski — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:30:29 +0000

Though Verizon’s new Droid ad campaign might seem to preclude one, Apple would be wise to ink an iPhone distribution deal with the carrier–if not to hasten iPhone adoption, then to slow rivals that would supplant it.

That’s the argument put forth by Piper Jaffray analyst Chris Larsen in a research note to investors Monday. Larsen feels that the cost to Apple (AAPL) of developing a CDMA version of the iPhone for Verizon’s (VZ) network and the subsidies the company might lose by ending its exclusivity deal with AT&T (T) would be a small price to pay for the spike in iPhone sales they would create.

“Although the iPhone is a strong player in the smartphone market, expanding its multi-vendor strategy could allow it to dominate the industry, as it does with the iPod,” Larsen writes. “The U.S. market is the world’s largest smartphone market, but we believe there is a land grab in the U.S. for smartphone share.”

Expanding his argument, Larson adds, “Apple’s exclusivity with AT&T has left the door open for strong competition from competitors, such as Research In Motion’s Blackberries, Palm’s webOS smartphones and Google’s Android operating system on multiple smartphones from OEMs such as Motorola, HTC, Samsung, LG, and others. Making the iPhone available to the other 150+ million subscribers (~2/3s of subscribers) not on AT&T’s network could result in iPod like adoption.”

Keeping the iPhone exclusive–while it might enable Apple to do more innovative things, as COO Tim Cook noted yesterday during the company’s quarterly earnings call–would also give those rival devices and platforms more time to catch up. If Apple really hopes to keep its lead in the U.S. market, it must do away with exclusivity deals, the same way it’s doing away with them abroad.

That’s bad news for AT&T. Because, as I’ve noted here before, a move to nonexclusivity in the U.S. would brutalize the carrier’s subscriber base. Analysts have long said that a material number of AT&T iPhone users would flock to Verizon’s superior network given the chance.

Larsen agrees. “A move to non-exclusivity in the U.S. could have a material impact on the U.S. wireless carriers,” he writes. “AT&T could lose meaningful smartphone share, while we think all the other carriers would gain share. We believe Verizon would be the largest beneficiary of non-exclusivity and the development of a CDMA iPhone.”

Continuing, Larson explains, “With 35% of AT&T’s iPhone sales coming from new customers, we feel it is reasonable to assume the company’s total iPhone sales could decline by 30% or more and that Verizon could pick up the bulk of this lost share (why switch to AT&T for iPhone if you haven’t left by now and the device is now available through your carrier; Verizon’s network quality could be a reason to switch from AT&T).”

Apple’s Insanely Great Quarter: 3.05 Million Macs, 7.4 million iPhones Sold

John Paczkowski — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:37:07 +0000

Apple’s September quarter saw, among other things, the release of Snow Leopard, the latest upgrade to its OS X operating system and the first public appearance of CEO Steve Jobs, who’d been on a medical leave of absence for a liver transplant. It was also the first full period since the company launched the iPhone 3GS, in late June.

No wonder it was a blowout quarter.

After market close Monday, Apple reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 a share, on revenue of $9.87 billion. That topped the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who’d expected the company to earn $1.42 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion.

The company sold 3.05 million Macs during the quarter, a 17 percent increase over last year. It sold 10.2 million iPods, an eight percent decline from the year-ago quarter.

And iPhones? Apple (AAPL) sold 7.4 million of those–seven percent more than during the same period last year. So much for those supply-chain issues that some analysts warned might undermine iPhone sales.

“We are thrilled to have sold more Macs and iPhones than in any previous quarter,” said CEO Jobs. “We’ve got a very strong lineup for the holiday season and some really great new products in the pipeline for 2010.” [Editor's Note: "...really great new products"--is that code for a tablet?]

Apple shares, which closed at $189.86 today, are spiking as I write this. At $203.90, they’re up more than seven percent in extended trading.

Looking ahead to its fiscal first quarter, Apple estimates it will earn between $1.70 and $1.78 a share on revenue in a range of $11.3 billion to $11.6 billion. That’s comically lower than the $1.91 a share on $11.45 billion in sales that analysts are forecasting. But as today’s results clearly demonstrate, Apple subscribes to the underpromise-and-over-deliver school of guidance theory, so there’s likely little cause for concern.

So, to recap: Apple sold more Macs and more iPhones than in any previous quarter in the company’s history. Before the holiday quarter. And in midst of the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years.

Notes From the Earnings Call:

Apple COO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer are handling the earnings call. CEO Steve Jobs will not be attending.
Oppenheimer says this was Apple’s second-highest quarterly revenue ever. Highest-ever operating margin. “We are thrilled with these record-breaking results, particularly given the economic environment around us.” Obviously.
Macs are showing “fantastic momentum,” says Oppenheimer. Sales have outpaced the market in 19 of the past 20 quarters. Quarterly sales were up 17 percent; portable sales, 35 percent. Interesting: 42 percent growth in Asia.
Moving on to iPods: Sales were down to 10.2 million from 11 million a year ago. But iPod touch sales doubled. MP3 market share in the U.S. is now more than 70 percent (according to NPD, I think).
iPhone sales were up seven percent. Apple will begin selling iPhones in China later this month. More than 85,000 apps in App Store. Two billion downloads.
Apple opened 15 new stores during the quarter. Now has 273. Will soon open first two stores in France, including one at the Louvre.
Moving on to the Q&A. Asked about those iPhone 3GS supply issues I mentioned earlier, Cook acknowledges that demand did outstrip supply in a number of countries. But the situation improved “markedly” in September. How are things looking for China? Cook: “I would have liked to have had more, honestly, because we were still short in some countries at the end of the quarter.”
Apple is obviously very excited about the iPhone’s impending debut in China. “There’s a good opportunity, and we’re really excited to get started,” says Cook. “It’s the largest market in the world in terms of total phones.”
No comment on the broader economy. “We just spend our time projecting our business and leave the economy to the economists.”
Does Apple worry about iPhone rivals? Android? Not really, says Cook. “We feel very good about suiting up and competing against anyone.” Our competitors are still trying to catch up with the first iPhone, he adds.
Snow Leopard? Cook says the company’s been “pleasantly surprised” by sales of Apple’s latest OS.
How does Apple benefit from carrier-exclusivity iPhone deals? Cook says carriers with exclusivity deals are willing to invest more in the platform and that means greater innovation. Visual voicemail is an example of that. That said, he adds, “We’ve found no lack of people wanting to sell iPhones, frankly.”
International store revenue up more than 20 percent, on average.
More on iPhone supply issues. Cook insists this is not a component issue, though he notes that silicon can sometimes be hard to get. “We feel good about our position now.”
And still more on iPhone supply issues: How many iPhones would Apple have sold if it had an adequate supply? Impossible to say, really, Cook says, adding that 3GS units were in short supply virtually everywhere in September.
Enterprise demand for the iPhone is very strong. It’s either being deployed or already in use at some 50 percent of Fortune 100 companies. Same with Europe and the FT 100. Widely used in higher ed and government as well.
But perhaps not widely enough. Asked about institutional sales, Cook says Apple isn’t seeing much stimulus funding. The company’s worried about state spending. Says Cook, “We may see more this quarter, but it’s too early to tell.”