“The continued economic turmoil, and in particular the troubling unemployment rate, is undoubtedly impacting industry sales,” said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. “Our latest Economy Tracker indicated that although consumers’ general opinion about the economy is improving, their outlook on their own personal situation is worsening. If consumers’ personal outlook continues to erode, they could very well be much more conservative with their holiday shopping this year.”

A somber warning for the videogame industry. Even recent price cuts on game consoles have done little to spur demand.

“Year to date, the hardware category has experienced the sharpest decline in the industry, with unit sales down 10 percent compared to the same time period last year,” Frazier wrote. “Recent price cuts helped spur a one- to two-month increase in unit sales, and this month’s Wii sales reflect that boost, but the other platforms have not sustained the sales momentum after price reduction.”

The videogame industry may be recession-resistant, but it is clearly not recession-proof, as some once believed. Sales data, below.

U.S. Hardware Sales, October 2009

1. Wii 506.9K
2. Nintendo DS 457.6K
3. PlayStation 3 320.6K
4. Xbox 360 249.7K
5. PSP 174.6K
6. PlayStation 2 117.8K

U.S. Top Ten Software Sales, October 2009

1. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3, Sony) 537,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) 441,000
3. Borderlands (360, Take 2) 418,000
4. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) 314,000
5. NBA 2K10 (360, Take 2) 311,000
6. Halo 3: ODST (360, Microsoft) 271,000
7. NBA 2K10 (PS3, Take 2) 213,000
8. Forza Motorsport 3 (360, Microsoft) 175,000
9. Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS, Square Enix) 169,000
10. FIFA Soccer 10 (360, Electronic Arts) 156,000

As a result, Nintendo’s operating profit fell 52 percent to 64 billion yen, missing the company’s own forecast of 100 billion yen, as well as estimates of analysts, who were expecting 90 billion.

That shortfall prompted Nintendo to cut projections on Wii sales for the year to 20 million from 26 million. Thursday, the company also slashed its profit forecast for the year by almost a quarter to $2.6 billion. That’s 18 percent less than last year and nearly 25 percent less than the 300 billion yen it had earlier projected.

This despite a recent Wii price cut intended to drive sales of the device. Clearly, something more is needed here. Said Barclays analyst Mia Nagasaka: “Nintendo needs to build up a sales-promotion scheme or introduce a new product to drive its earnings.”

That’s what ngmoco co-founder and Electronic Arts (ERTS) alum Neil Young said of Apple’s iconic handset at the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco earlier this year, and it’s worth reflecting on a bit in light of a new report from Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi that claims the iPhone OS will soon create pricing and customer migration pressure for traditional gaming platforms.

Noting that some 665-760 million games may have been downloaded from the Apple (AAPL) App Store during the last 12 months, Sacconaghi estimates that the installed base for the iPhone and iPod touch platform could amount to about one third of the total handheld gaming installed base by 2012.

“We believe that gaming embodies the power of Apple’s App store: it has dramatically lowered the entry barriers for both developers and gamers alike, resulting in an unparalleled number of available games at affordable prices, which is creating lock-in and enhanced interest in Apple’s high-margin iPhone (and iPod Touch) platforms,” Sacconaghi writes.

Continuing, the analyst adds: “By most measures, gaming has been the killer App Store category, accounting for an estimated 40% of all downloads. Most importantly, we believe that gaming is providing yet another incremental, differentiated reason for consumers to purchase iPhones and iPod Touches, and creates powerful lock-in to the App Store platform and Apple products on a go forward basis.”

The upshot of all this is bad news for traditional gaming console developers–particularly those who have dismissed it as a novelty. “Most gaming developers today view the iPhone and other smart phones as an incremental opportunity, which targets the casual gamer but not the dedicating gaming enthusiast,” Sacconaghi explains. “Over time, however, we believe that the combination of evolutionary improvements in iPhone/iPod gaming functionality, the convenience of the App Store download model, the App’s Store leading title selection and lower price points could cause some migration among gaming enthusiasts to the Apple platform and/or pressure traditional gaming incumbents’ hardware and software pricing.”

And this is clearly what Apple (AAPL) is aiming for. Consider these recent remarks from Phil Schiller, the company’s senior vice president of worldwide product marketing: “People are starting to see what a great gaming device this is. When you think about the companies that came before us…when you played those other systems, they seemed so cool, but now when you look at them, they don’t stack up against the iPod touch….No Multi-Touch user experience, Games are expensive, No App Store, No iPod, Expensive Games ($25-$40) and uncomfortable retail buying experience. [There are] 607 games for PSP and 3,680 games for Nintendo DS. [But there are ] 21,178 Game and Entertainment Titles at App Store.”

That said, Nintendo is cutting the price of its Wii videogame system by $50 in hopes of growing the market for the popular device as we head into the winter holidays. On Sunday, the company will begin peddling the Wii at a suggested retail price of $199.99.

The new price is the first reduction since the console launched in November 2006 and follows similar price cuts by two rivals, Sony’s (SNE) PS3 and Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox 360.

All three are hoping they’ll attract recession-addled gamers into the market, and according to Reggie Fils-Aime, president of Nintendo of America, they’ve got decent shot at it. “Our data shows in the U.S. alone there are 50 million consumers who are interested in playing videogames but they haven’t yet done so,” Fils-Aime told The Wall Street Journal. “They are waiting for product innovation or a slightly better value.”

If it was, surely we wouldn’t be seeing the sixth consecutive month of declining sales reported by NPD. According to the market research firm, overall sales in the United States in August of hardware, software and game accessories were $909 million–a 16 percent drop from the same period a year ago.

Hardware sales were down 25 percent for the month and 17 percent for the year. Software fared little better. It was down 15 percent for the month and 14 percent for the year.

Six straight months of falling sales. Overall, the industry is down 14 percent for the year, earning nearly $9.1 billion so far in 2009, according to NPD. Is this a trend that can be dismissed with the standard “well, software drives console sales” explanation? I’m not so sure. It’s not like Mario Kart and Madden NFL 10 have disappeared from the shelves. Indeed, they’re still top-selling titles. They’re still driving sales. They’re just driving a hell of a lot fewer of them.

Indeed, Electronic Arts (ERTS) CEO John Riccitiello bemoaned this very fact in an email to employees, released yesterday. “It is discouraging that one of our highest-rated and best-marketed ‘Madden’ titles in years is facing strong headwinds,” he said, adding industry trends “present a challenge.”

Perhaps that’s because we’re in the middle of the worst American recession in 50 years and $40 for a videogame is still $40. I’ll bet $5 and my old Intellivision that the videogame industry will post its first year-over-year loss since 2004 this year.

Hardware Sales:

1. Nintendo DS     552.9K
2. Wii     277.4K
3. Xbox 360     215.4K
4. PlayStation 3     210.0K
5. PSP     140.3K
6. PlayStation 2      105.9K

Top 10 Software Sales:

1. Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts): 928,000
2. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo): 754,000
3. Madden NFL 10 (PS3, EA): 665,000
4. Batman: Arkham Asylum (360, Square Enix): 303,000
5. Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Square Enix): 290,000
6. Madden NFL 10 (PS2, EA): 160,000
7. Dissidia Final Fantasy (PSP, Square Enix): 130,000
8. Wii Fit (Wii, Nintendo): 128,000
9. Mario Kart Wii (Wii, Nintendo): 120,000
10. Fossil Fighters (DS, Nintendo): 92,000

“In 2004, as you may recall, we launched a slim version of PlayStation 2, a defining moment for that console, helping us to really expand the user base of PlayStation 2 further,” Sony Computer Entertainment Chief Executive Kazuo Hirai said at the Gamescom videogame trade show in Cologne, Germany. “Today is that day for PlayStation 3.”

And so, starting Sept. 1, the PS3 will be available for $299. That’s still well above Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox 360, which retails for less than $200 and Nintendo’s Wii, which sells for $250, but it’s a hell of a lot better than $399. And analysts say it will almost certainly spur demand for the console. “People were expecting this to happen. [Sony] had to do something,” MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler told MarketWatch. “This will bring some new customers to the fold.”

Indeed. But how long can Sony sustain such market share gains, when Microsoft and Nintendo are almost certainly mulling price cuts for their platforms as well?

Sony’s net loss in the quarter was 37.1 billion yen ($390 million), a brutal change from the 35 billion yen profit in the year-ago period. Still, it was smaller than the 109.6 billion yen loss analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had been expecting. That said, all three of Sony’s core electronics divisions registered losses for the quarter.

Not a good sign. Because while the company’s smaller-than-expected loss proves its cost-cutting measures have been effective, it also shows that Sony (SNE) must do more than just slash jobs and suppliers if it ever hopes to regain its position in the market. For while cost-cutting might improve Sony’s bottom line, it’s not going to make the company competitive against Samsung, Nintendo and Apple (AAPL), who’ve usurped its position in TVs, gaming consoles and media players, respectively. What Sony needs most is not more cost-cutting; it’s a new gotta-have-it product.

Seriously. It’s been, what, 30 years since the debut of the Walkman?

Nintendo really should have cut its losses yesterday and cancelled its E3 press conference after Microsoft’s (MSFT) Project Natal demo. How could it possibly have trumped Redmond, Wash.’s controllerless game control system? Certainly not with the Wii Vitality Sensor it showed off today.

The peripheral’s big gaming advancement? It records a user’s vital signs. A nice addition to the Wii Fit, but a far cry from Microsoft’s efforts to turn gamers themselves into controllers.

As I said yesterday, “sucks to be Nintendo.” And today, it most certainly does.

“If we were any more successful, we’d be bankrupt.”

– Sony CEO Howard Stringer on the company’s LCD business, May 28, 2008

About the best thing to be said for Sony’s grotesque financial results is that they came in smaller than expected. The company’s 98.9 billion yen ($1 billion) loss for the fiscal year ended March–its first net loss in 14 years–wasn’t nearly as bad as the 150.0 billion yen ($1.57 billion) figure it had predicted in January or even close to the 173.8 billion yen ($1.8 billion) analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had been forecasting. And the same is true for Sony’s fourth quarter, as well. The net loss of 165.1 billion yen ($1.7 billion) it reported was far better than the 228.7 billion yen ($2.39 billion) forecast.

Still ugly as hell, though. And according to the company’s leadership, its next fiscal year will be little different. Sony is forecasting a loss of 120 billion yen ($1.2 billion). Given that unfortunate outlook, Sony (SNE) is closing three factories in Japan, part of an ongoing effort to shore up a business ravaged by the worst recession in decades. But cost-cutting measures like that can only do so much.

As analysts note, what Sony really needs is a killer product. It is no longer the force it once was in consumer electronics, having ceded its dominance in portable music players to Apple (AAPL) and its leads in the television and videogame console markets to Samsung Electronics and Nintendo. “Their outlook gave me the impression that their business is heading for a gradual recovery,” Fujio Ando, senior managing director at Chibagin Asset Management, told Reuters. “But it would all depend on whether they would be able to start producing popular products, because right now they have no ‘Number One’ products. I see Sony’s branding power weakening.”

And that’s something of which Sony is painfully aware.

“We have two distinct challenges facing us,” Sony CEO Howard Stringer recently told the New York Times. “The first is the global slowdown, which forces us to make significant adjustments. The second challenge is the evolution of our competitive environment. New competitors [are] springing out everywhere.”

Indeed. And while Sony seems to be meeting the first challenge, albeit slowly, it hasn’t yet begun to make headway toward meeting the second. And at this point, one wonders if the company is even capable anymore. As Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister and former Sony employee Akira Amari asked back in October 2006, “What has become of the Sony known for its technology?”

Apple (AAPL) won’t say what it is exactly that Drebin’s going to work on, though it’s a safe bet it’s related to the multicore graphics processors in which he has his expertise. After all, Drebin’s the guy that, according to his AMD bio, “led the architecture and design of many of ATI award-winning graphics processors” and “was responsible for the design of the graphics chip used in Nintendo’s GameCube console.” That’s quite a CV and one that suggests he’ll jibe well with the rock-star chip design team Apple brought in-house with its April 2008 acquisition of boutique semiconductor design company, P.A. Semi.

What that team is working on, of course, is anyone’s guess. Perhaps something to power that high-definition, touchscreen e-book reader it’s rumored to be building…

In March, Japanese sales of Nintendo’s wildly popular game console fell below those of rival Sony’s PlayStation 3 for the first time. According to data released on Monday by research outfit Enterbrain, Sony sold 146,948 PS3s in the five weeks to March 29, while Nintendo sold 99,335 Wiis–and, for those keeping track, Microsoft (MSFT) sold 43,172 Xbox 360s. Driving sales: Yakuza 3 and Resident Evil 5–two new titles not yet available for Wii.

Could this be the beginning of a new trend, a dramatic reversal of fortune for Sony, which ceded its gaming console dominance to Nintendo back in 2006? Sony (SNE) clearly hopes so, but Nintendo doesn’t seemed too worried. “It is still the first few months of the year when sales are slow for the industry so we are not particularly concerned,” a spokesperson told the Financial Times. “We hope to line up strong software to support hardware sales in the second half of the year.” And if it’s able to do that, Nintendo probably does have little cause for concern–at least for now. The Wii is still outselling the PS3 by 3-to-1 in the states, and at eight million sold, cumulative Wii sales in Japan exceed the three million consoles Sony’s managed to sell.

Confirming recent speculation, Sony this morning said that it’s dropping the price of the PlayStation 2 from $129 to $99.99 as of April 1. “With this new price, we intend to introduce a new generation of consumers–some of whom weren’t even alive when the system was first introduced in 2000–to the immense entertainment value offered by PlayStation 2,” John Koller, Sony’s director of hardware marketing, explained in a blog post. “In the gaming industry, the typical lifecycle for a console is around five years, but because we build each of our platforms for a large and diverse consumer base, we design our platforms differently. With the original PlayStation and now PlayStation 2, we’ve proven that consumers can rely on our platforms for their gaming and entertainment needs for at least a decade.”

And that does indeed seem to be the case. Though nearly 10 years old, the PS2 remains quite popular. Indeed, Sony expects to sell eight million of the consoles in its current financial year–not so far off from the 10 million PlayStation 3s it expects to sell in the same period. And it will certainly grow in popularity at this lower price point, giving Sony (SNE) a means to really take Nintendo’s Wii to the mat.

Now, about that PlayStation 3 price cut rumor: Sony isn’t planning one, though arguably that’s exactly what the console, which is being outsold two-to-one by the Xbox 360 and the Wii, needs. “As we have stated previously, we do not have plans for a PS3 price drop, and any rumors to that effect are false and are the result of speculation,” Sony Computer Entertainment America said in a statement. “SCEA remains focused on the long-term momentum of PS3. With the industry’s best software lineup this year, combined with our most aggressive marketing campaign to date, we remain confident in our approach and the value we’re delivering with PS3.”