This according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, who in a research note today says all three are positioned for leadership in the “huge, nascent and underpenetrated” smartphone market. The smartphone, says Abramsky, is a uniquely transformational innovation in that it represents the convergence of four iconic technology markets–PC and computing, Internet, consumer electronics and wireless phones.

As interest in mobile email, mobile browsing and mobile applications grows, as handsets become more powerful and the networks on which they run improve, consumers will begin to bypassing PCs and the tethered Internet for the iPhone, the BlackBerry, the Pre and the mobile computing experience they offer. And that transition will create an enormous market opportunity for smartphone vendors like Apple (AAPL), RIM (RIMM) and Palm (PALM).

“Because of their convergence capabilities,” writes Abramsky, “we believe that smartphones possess the ability to capture users, revenues, market share and profits from not only the 1 billion unit+ per year handset market–but also from the PC market (300 million units per year), TVs (200 million units per year), personal media players (230 million units per year), digital cameras (125 million units per year), personal gaming devices (37 million units per year), portable navigation devices (32 million units per year) and other formerly discrete market segments.”

Bolstering his case, Abramsky adds, “At the end of calendar 2008, only 2.5% of the ~7 billion people in the world had smartphones and 24% had Internet access (only 8% are Internet subscribers, the difference being multi-user households and Internet cafes). A huge market opportunity for smartphones exists, given that globally there are 3.7 billion mobile phone subscribers, 2.5 billion consumer electronics users, 1.6 billion Internet users, and 1.1 billion PC users.” (Click on chart below to enlarge.)

Great news for Apple, RIM and Palm, which Abramsky sees as the market’s emerging leaders. And, as I noted earlier, great news for investor holding their shares. Says Abramsky: “We are raising our price targets on RIM from $100 to $150, on Apple from $190 to $250, and on Palm from $18 to $25, justified by increased market shares which, as visibility improves to the huge smartphone opportunity, offer upside to financials and potential multiple expansion.”

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates that Apple (AAPL), though it is only the fifth-largest handset vendor, claimed nearly a third of handset industry profits in the first half of 2009 (see table below; click to enlarge).

“Our analysis indicates that Apple’s iPhone accounted for only 8% of handset industry revenues but 32% of industry operating profits in 1H09,” Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients today. “Even if we exclude the operating losses generated by Motorola and Sony Ericsson, Apple still accounted for 25% of industry profits. iPhone’s success is akin to Apple’s position in the PC industry–where the company enjoys an estimated 25% of industry profits, despite capturing only 6% of industry revenues.”

Quite an achievement considering that the iPhone is just two years old. How did Apple manage it? According to Sacconaghi, Apple succeeded by claiming a first-mover advantage in an expanding high-end market.

“With the iPhone and its Apps Store, Apple has established a formidable smartphone ecosystem, which history suggests is very difficult to overcome,” the analyst explains. “In fact, Apple has the potential to become a de-facto standard of sorts in the consumer smartphone market, much like it became in the portable media player market with iPods, due in large part to its first mover advantage and tight software and hardware integration.

“We believe that over time,” Sacconaghi continues, “single function standalone handheld devices (portable music players, digital cameras, navigation systems, etc.) will become increasingly converged. Apple’s estimated installed base of 75+ million individual iPod and iTunes users provides customers with a seamless migration path to a fuller featured, higher-end integrated device.”

Though Sacconaghi believes Apple should be able to grow faster than the overall handset market without materially lowering prices, he suggests a lower price point might give a signifigant bump to its iPhone business. “We believe Apple will ultimately need to lower price (and margins over time) to expand its addressable market opportunity, including offering a lower-cost, non-data plan iPhone,” he concludes.

Boy was he ever wrong. MarketWatch reports that revenue at Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices unit, which manages the Zune and Xbox 360, fell 42 percent to about $211 million in its most recent quarter. Microsoft (MSFT) shipped more Xbox systems this spring than last, so what could be driving that grotesque revenue shortfall?

Yep. After nearly three years at market, Zune has remarkably little share to show for it. In fact, recent data from NPD Group show Zune’s share of the portable media player market at about two percent, compared to about 70 percent for the Apple (AAPL) iPod. And with a sales trend like the one revealed in Microsoft’s January 10Q, market share isn’t likely to be growing much. According to that document, “Zune platform revenue decreased $100 million or 54 percent reflecting a decrease in device sales.”

And that was in a holiday quarter.

Little wonder, then, that some have begun to wonder if it might not be time for Microsoft to just scuttle the device. “The market reception for Zune is so disappointing that many retailers have even stopped selling it altogether,” Tradition Capital Management VP George Kurian told MarketWatch. “Microsoft should abandon Zune and follow Apple’s strategy to try to make its presence felt in the high-growth smartphone sector.”

And that makes perfect sense really. A touch with an integrated camera and mic is more an inevitability than anything else at this point. And the rumored September launch jibes with the timing of Apple’s (AAPL) iPod announcements for the past several years.

So, if the rumor proves true, we’ll soon see the touch transform from a media-player to a media-creator and VoIP device as well. Outfitted with Skype or a similar application, the touch would make a slick home phone–and give a nice little sting to AT&T (T).

[Image Credit: TechAu]

But it’s getting closer.

Interfax reports that Apple (AAPL) is near to obtaining the Network Access License from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that would allow the iPhone to be sold in the country. Once the license is secured, Apple needs only to finalize a distribution deal with China Unicom to make good on Cook’s promise, though that has proven problematic.

Apple’s discussions with China Unicom have reportedly been troubled by the company’s distaste for the idea of China Unicom preinstalling non-Apple software–a media player other than iTunes, for example–on its iconic handset. That said, Apple is apparently confident enough in a positive outcome that it’s begun staffing up for a launch. Last week the company posted an ad to its recruitment Web site looking for someone to oversee “iPhone training” across Asia. The position, which will be based out of Beijing, is responsible for designing training programs for iPhone sales teams and retail channels partners.

And it’s about time, isn’t it? The iPod would certainly benefit from a storage and feature update. The MacBook is due for a six-month refresh. And Apple’s (AAPL) MacBook Pro is due for a revision, since design-wise it’s really just a tweaked version of the machine that debuted as the PowerBook Titanium in 2001.

Anyone want to buy a used MacBook Pro? In September?

Was he inebriated? Do you even know anyone who owns a Zune?”

–-Apple CEO Steve Jobs

Apparently not. And, perhaps, you never will.

GameStop (GME) has stopped selling Zunes. During a quarterly earnings call yesterday, Gamestop CFO David Carlson said the retailer had pulled Microsoft’s (MSFT) media player from the shelves of all 4,400 of its stores. He offered no further details on the move, but according to a GameStop spokesperson, it was inspired by insufficient demand. “We have decided to exit the Zune category because it just did not have the appeal we had anticipated,” the spokesperson told TheStreet.com. “It (also) did not fit with our product mix.”

Your product mix and everyone else’s as well. As mentioned here last week, just 2 million Zunes have been sold since the device’s launch in November 2006. To put that figure in perspective, Apple (AAPL) sold 10.6 million iPods in its last quarter alone.

And so a question: Is GameStop’s decision to dump the Zune the beginning of a wider trend? According to Microsoft, the answer to that question is ‘no.’ “We have a set of great retail partnerships that give Zune a strong presence at retail including Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Target, Wal-Mart, and others,” Adam Sohn, director of marketing for the Zune, said. “We will continue to invest in deep retail partnerships, and have seen good momentum online and at retail over the last few months including a great response to our recent spring update.”

In an astonishingly unimaginative report called “The Future of Apple Inc.,” Forrester attempts to divine the products Apple will be peddling five years from now. “Apple will aim to become the hub of the digital home, offering eight key products and services to connect PCs and digital content to the HDTV-stereo audio-visual infrastructure in consumers’ homes,” Forrester explains. “To fulfill this strategy, we predict that Apple will launch new products, re-engineer the Apple Store, and expand into in-home installation services.”

Sadly, the speculative product and services roadmap Forrester has devised seems more a roadmap to ruin than anything else, and a laughable one at that. Among the products the company sees Apple developing by 2013:

• A network-enabled “clock radio”
• An AppleSound universal music controller
• A digital picture frame
• A “Genius Bar” that makes house calls just like the Geek Squad.

Huh. So Apple, after reinventing the desktop UI, the digital media player, and the phone, will set its sights on the lowly clock radio and picture frame. Really? If Apple’s product dev team pitched Forrester’s clock radio idea to CEO Steve Jobs, he would probably hurl them one-by-one into rush-hour traffic from the roof of 1 Infinite Loop.

Live Mesh, though it takes Ozzie five pages to describe it, is essentially a “software-plus-services” platform that uses the Web to synchronize and share data among devices, applications and people (you’ll find a walk-through here and a good overview here).

“Over the past ten years, the PC era has given way to an era in which the Web is at the center of our experiences–experiences delivered not just through the browser but also through many different devices including PCs, phones, media players, game consoles, set-top boxes and televisions, cars, and more,” Ozzie writes. “It is our mission in this new era to create compelling, seamless experiences that combine the power of the Internet, with the magic of software, across a world of devices. … the Web is the hub of our social mesh and our device mesh.”

“The Web is the hub of our social mesh and our device mesh.”

Wait.

Does Bill Gates know that? Because last year he told CNN’s “American Morning,” “We’re making the PC the place where it all comes together.” Clearly, in the ensuing year, Gates and Microsoft noticed that Google (GOOG) et al. are fast shifting computational relevancy to the Web, away from the desktop and, more importantly, away from Microsoft.

Live Mesh, if it’s successful, will change that. Because, as Joe Wilcox notes over at Microsoft Watch, “Live Mesh is Microsoft’s attempt to turn operating system and proprietary services platforms into hubs that replace the Web. Microsoft is building a services-based operating system that transcends and extends Windows and also the function of Web browsers.” Adds Wilcox, “It’s bold, brilliant and downright scary.”

Paramount Pictures (VIA) and application developer FanRocket this week debuted a new service for Facebook users that will enable them to send each other movie clips. A combination media player and clip library, the service called VooZoo aims to exploit the Hey-Remember-That-Funny-Scene-From-”Nacho Libre” phenomenon by providing users with access to clips from such movies and an easy means of bombarding their friends with them.

The studio will plug the DVD version of the movies after each clip is played in the hopes of driving further sales. An interesting strategy, but one analysts seem to have met with a raised eyebrow. “It’s one thing to go to a friend’s profile page and they have a clip of Eddie Murphy driving the Ferrari and go, ‘Oh, yeah, that was hysterical,’ ” said John Barrett, research director at Parks Associates. “It’s quite something else to say, ‘Hey, that was such a great scene I’m going to spend the next two hours right here in front of my PC.’ It would be some kind of clip that would make someone do that.”