The report, should it prove true, will no doubt be a disappointment to overanxious tabletites awaiting the mysterious device’s arrival, but really, that’s immaterial to Apple (AAPL). In the end, a six-month delay is simply six more months of rumor and speculation with which to build the bonfire of publicity that will erupt when (and if) the tablet/slate arrives.

Moreover, the tablet market is a nascent one; it’s not as if Apple is losing market share to its rivals by delaying entry. It’s best, then, for the company to take it’s time and uncrate the tablet/slate when confident that it has everything right. As Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote in a research note to investors Thursday, “the exact timing is irrelevant given Street models do not currently reflect the tablet, expectations for actual units in 2010 are low, and investors focus is more on whether the tablet is real and less on timing.”

Munster, it’s worth noting, envisions Apple’s tablet/slate as a $500-700 device about three times the size of the iPod touch.

“We expect the tablet hardware to be similar to an iPod touch but larger; we expect the key differentiator of the device to be its software,” Munster writes. “While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple’s iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store. We believe Apple’s tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook.”

This according to a new survey from ChangeWave Research (see chart below; click to enlarge), which found that the iPhone now accounts for 30 percent of the smart-phone market. That’s almost double the share it held a year ago. Remarkable considering that the device is currently available from just a single carrier.

“Apple’s share keeps skyrocketing,” said ChangeWave research director Paul Carton. “Their last earnings report points that out. But these numbers show that their momentum is continuing. They’re firing on all cylinders.”

Indeed. Of consumers who plan to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days, 36 percent plan to purchase an iPhone. Meanwhile, 27 percent are considering a BlackBerry and eight percent a Palm (PALM) device.

Said Carton: “In the horserace among manufacturers, the release of the iPhone 3GS has led to a big jump in smart phone market share for Apple and has placed them within striking distance of Research In Motion–whose slew of models are still number one but have fallen to their lowest level in two years.”

[Image Credit: GadgetPhix]

The online auctioneer reported revenue of $2.23 billion, up six percent from a year ago, while net income fell 29 percent to $350 million or 27 cents per share. Excluding some items, earnings were 38 cents a share. Analysts who follow eBay expected the company to turn in a gain of 37 cents per share on sales of $2.14 billion.

Gross merchandise volume–the value of all goods sold via eBay–rose seven percent from the same period last year. Analysts had believed it would drop between five and 10 percent.

EBay said it sees fourth-quarter earnings of 38 cents to 40 cents a share, on revenue of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion.

“Our third quarter results were strong, with PayPal gaining momentum and market share worldwide and our core eBay business showing positive trends,” John J. Donahoe, eBay’s chief executive, said in a statement.

NOTES FROM THE EARNINGS CALL

On business overall:
eBay CEO John Donahoe: “These are strong results for a strong company….We’re seeing our turnaround efforts begin to pay off.”

On the economy:
Donahoe: “The economy as we see it is stable, and we’re cautiously optimistic about consumer spending going into the holiday.”

On the Skype lawsuit:
eBay CFO Bob Swan: “We’re highly confident in our position.”

No wonder it was a blowout quarter.

After market close Monday, Apple reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 a share, on revenue of $9.87 billion. That topped the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who’d expected the company to earn $1.42 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion.

The company sold 3.05 million Macs during the quarter, a 17 percent increase over last year. It sold 10.2 million iPods, an eight percent decline from the year-ago quarter.

And iPhones? Apple (AAPL) sold 7.4 million of those–seven percent more than during the same period last year. So much for those supply-chain issues that some analysts warned might undermine iPhone sales.

“We are thrilled to have sold more Macs and iPhones than in any previous quarter,” said CEO Jobs. “We’ve got a very strong lineup for the holiday season and some really great new products in the pipeline for 2010.” [Editor's Note: "...really great new products"--is that code for a tablet?]

Apple shares, which closed at $189.86 today, are spiking as I write this. At $203.90, they’re up more than seven percent in extended trading.

Looking ahead to its fiscal first quarter, Apple estimates it will earn between $1.70 and $1.78 a share on revenue in a range of $11.3 billion to $11.6 billion. That’s comically lower than the $1.91 a share on $11.45 billion in sales that analysts are forecasting. But as today’s results clearly demonstrate, Apple subscribes to the underpromise-and-over-deliver school of guidance theory, so there’s likely little cause for concern.

So, to recap: Apple sold more Macs and more iPhones than in any previous quarter in the company’s history. Before the holiday quarter. And in midst of the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years.

Notes From the Earnings Call:

• Apple COO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer are handling the earnings call. CEO Steve Jobs will not be attending.
• Oppenheimer says this was Apple’s second-highest quarterly revenue ever. Highest-ever operating margin. “We are thrilled with these record-breaking results, particularly given the economic environment around us.” Obviously.
• Macs are showing “fantastic momentum,” says Oppenheimer. Sales have outpaced the market in 19 of the past 20 quarters. Quarterly sales were up 17 percent; portable sales, 35 percent. Interesting: 42 percent growth in Asia.
• Moving on to iPods: Sales were down to 10.2 million from 11 million a year ago. But iPod touch sales doubled. MP3 market share in the U.S. is now more than 70 percent (according to NPD, I think).
• iPhone sales were up seven percent. Apple will begin selling iPhones in China later this month. More than 85,000 apps in App Store. Two billion downloads.
• Apple opened 15 new stores during the quarter. Now has 273. Will soon open first two stores in France, including one at the Louvre.
• Moving on to the Q&A. Asked about those iPhone 3GS supply issues I mentioned earlier, Cook acknowledges that demand did outstrip supply in a number of countries. But the situation improved “markedly” in September. How are things looking for China? Cook: “I would have liked to have had more, honestly, because we were still short in some countries at the end of the quarter.”
• Apple is obviously very excited about the iPhone’s impending debut in China. “There’s a good opportunity, and we’re really excited to get started,” says Cook. “It’s the largest market in the world in terms of total phones.”
• No comment on the broader economy. “We just spend our time projecting our business and leave the economy to the economists.”
• Does Apple worry about iPhone rivals? Android? Not really, says Cook. “We feel very good about suiting up and competing against anyone.” Our competitors are still trying to catch up with the first iPhone, he adds.
• Snow Leopard? Cook says the company’s been “pleasantly surprised” by sales of Apple’s latest OS.
• How does Apple benefit from carrier-exclusivity iPhone deals? Cook says carriers with exclusivity deals are willing to invest more in the platform and that means greater innovation. Visual voicemail is an example of that. That said, he adds, “We’ve found no lack of people wanting to sell iPhones, frankly.”
• International store revenue up more than 20 percent, on average.
• More on iPhone supply issues. Cook insists this is not a component issue, though he notes that silicon can sometimes be hard to get. “We feel good about our position now.”
• And still more on iPhone supply issues: How many iPhones would Apple have sold if it had an adequate supply? Impossible to say, really, Cook says, adding that 3GS units were in short supply virtually everywhere in September.
• Enterprise demand for the iPhone is very strong. It’s either being deployed or already in use at some 50 percent of Fortune 100 companies. Same with Europe and the FT 100. Widely used in higher ed and government as well.
• But perhaps not widely enough. Asked about institutional sales, Cook says Apple isn’t seeing much stimulus funding. The company’s worried about state spending. Says Cook, “We may see more this quarter, but it’s too early to tell.”

This morning the Finnish mobile phone giant tapped Rick Simonson, currently its chief financial officer, as head of its handset division. And the company named Timo Ihamuotila, currently global head of sales, CFO.

While Simonson’s move from CFO to head of Nokia’s mobile phone business might seem a bit odd, analysts say it could be just what the company needs. “Simonson has been in the business for years,” Swedbank Securities analyst Jan Ihrfelt told Forbes. “He knows the company quite well, has the financial skills and the skills of a good communicator to make people in the company excited about new goals.”

And that’s clearly something Nokia (NOK) needs. For while the company is holding its ground in the broader mobile phone business, it’s losing it in smart phones, the fastest-growing segment of the market. As I noted yesterday, Nokia’s share of the smart-phone market slipped to 35 percent from 41 percent in its latest quarter, a grim reminder of just how poorly the company’s flagship smart phones are faring in their battle with iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) and BlackBerry manufacturer Research In Motion (RIMM).

Said Ihrfelt: “Nokia hasn’t been as quick as others in catching up with trends in the market and in bringing phones to consumers. One would expect a player the size of Nokia to have a product that competes with the iPhone, but that hasn’t been the case.”

Not yet, anyway. But that may soon change. A few weeks back, Nokia hired John Martin, former vice president of iPhone and Mac Internet Services at Apple to oversee development of new devices based on its Maemo platform.

Dragging the company down: A 908 million euro goodwill write-off in the Nokia Siemens Networks venture it co-owns with Siemens (SI). Revenue was 9.8 billion euros, or about $14.6 billion, which was down about 20 percent compared to last year. Worse, smart-phone market share declined to 35 percent from 41 percent in the previous quarter.

Six points gone in three months? That’s a brutal loss and one that demonstrates just how much pressure the company is seeing from Apple (AAPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM), among others.

“Nokia is launching plenty of new high-end smartphone models, such as the N900 and N97 mini,” Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston told Reuters. “But as yet there is no iPhone killer to drive a major revival in its smartphone volumes. Nokia is still struggling in the U.S. smartphone market, and with competition intensifying in China as well, Nokia’s battles can only get tougher in 2010.”

Still, Nokia (NOK) did have some good news to report. It expects mobile device volumes to increase in the fourth quarter of 2009 and it sees the global handset market shrinking less this year than analysts had feared–seven percent instead of 10 percent.

“It is encouraging to see some signs of recovery in our markets,” Kallasvuo said during a conference call. “But let’s be clear, uncertainty in end-consumer demand remains.”

And once Acer does that, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)–the world’s largest PC maker by shipments–best start watching its back. Said Lanci: “I would expect not only to pass Dell very soon, but also to breach the gap with HP.”

Have Acer’s buyouts of Gateway and Packard Bell gone to Lanci’s head? Perhaps just a little. That said, the company has seen quite a bit of growth thanks to the netbook phenomenon, which shows no signs of abating.

In a research note issued this morning, Huberty–noting that the iPhone’s market share grew 136 percent in France when Apple switched to multicarrier agreements there–said iPhone sales could more than double if the company took a similar tack in other countries.

“We expect Apple to broaden iPhone carrier distribution over the next two years and believe this opportunity is under-appreciated by the investment community,” she wrote. “This total opportunity is substantial–it adds up to an incremental 20.3M iPhone units and $3.76 in adjusted EPS, 100 percent and 41 percent of iPhone units and adjusted EPS respectively.”

Adding further details to her projections, Huberty continues: “In the top six iPhone markets that are still exclusive, we believe that Apple’s market share could rise to 10 percent, on average, in a multiple carrier distribution model from 4 percent today. These six markets represented almost 70 percent percent of iPhone shipments in C2Q09.”

Huberty also claims that if Apple (AAPL) were to end its exclusivity deal with AT&T (T) and add Verizon (VZ) as a second carrier, its share of the U.S. market would more than double, rising to 12.2 percent from 4.9 percent today.

Huberty, it should be noted, isn’t the first analyst to make such a claim. In June, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi said that a deal with Verizon could more than double U.S. iPhone sales in the near term. Said Sacconaghi: “Verizon’s postpaid subscriber base is not only larger than AT&T’s, but more importantly, is untapped whereas we estimate more than 10 percent of AT&T’s postpaid users already have an iPhone.”

New metrics from Web analytics firm StatCounter show Bing’s share of the U.S. search market in September falling to 8.5 percent from 9.6 percent in August. Its share of the global market declined as well, slipping to 3.25 percent from 3.58 percent.

Microsoft’s (MSFT) new search partner, Yahoo (YHOO), also suffered a decline. Its market share fell to 9.4 percent from 10.50 percent in the U.S. and to 4.37 percent from 4.84 abroad. Meanwhile, Google’s (GOOG) September share rose to 80 percent from 77.8 percent in the U.S. and to 90.54 percent from 90 percent globally. (See chart below; click to enlarge.)

“The trend has been downwards for Bing since mid August,” StatCounter CEO Aodhan Cullen said in a statement. “The wheels haven’t fallen off but the underlying trend must be a little worrying for Microsoft.”

Mmm, I doubt it. While a month of slight decline might herald the beginning of a trend, it certainly doesn’t guarantee one, especially in search, where surges and declines in market share are quite common. Furthermore, we haven’t yet seen search metrics from Nielsen, comScore (SCOR), and Hitwise. And all three showed Bing gaining share in August, a month that Statcounter claimed shows the beginning of a downward trend.

In its study, Interpret identified the key drivers of smart-phone purchasing decisions as influenced by perceptions that the device is, in order of importance:

• Smart (intelligent, adept)
• Cool (hip, trendy)
• Productive (efficient, organized)

The study found that by catering to these drivers in its marketing, Palm (PALM) was able to develop a heightened consumer awareness of the Pre even in a market already crowded with strong brands (see chart below; click to enlarge).

“Consumers intending to purchase a smartphone no longer feel that the iPhone is the only player in the smartphone market,” Interpret concludes, noting that by catering to the need by consumers to feel smart, cool and productive, the Pre is now a player in that space as well.

“It appears the most highly publicized signature smartphones are no longer expected to simply accomplish advanced tasks, but they must also project three key attributes of their owners to others,” the study declares. “Consumers are so pressed to portray these traits that they are demonstrating a willingness to accept phones that accomplish this undertaking at a higher price tag.”

Continuing, Interpret sums up Palm’s approach and the results: “In December, Palm was languishing as an irrelevant smartphone player, but it has now rejuvenated its standing as having a genuine presence in the market. Palm approached the Pre marketing campaign as a combination of smart, productive and cool brand associations….Even though the Pre has not sold millions, its significant role in jumpstarting Palm’s revival has put the brand in a place to expand to different carriers–and increase its market share by developing similar handsets.”

Evidently, Palm is cool again.

Apple has sold some 225 million iPods to date, making it one of the most popular electronic devices ever. And it’s sure to sell even more after the updates the company announced at this morning’s event. Among them: Larger, cheaper iPod touches and nanos with cameras and FM radios.

Following introductory remarks by Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs, Phil Schiller offers details, noting that “the iPod has 73.8 percent market share. The next biggest category is ‘other,’ and after that, SanDisk and then Microsoft pulling up the rear.”

Schiller adds that Apple has sold 20 million iPod touches since the device debuted. He runs through a lengthy sales pitch for the iPod touch, touting it as a killer pocket computer and taking potshots at rivals like Dell (DELL) along the way.

Moving on to games, Schiller notes the discrepancy between the number of games on gaming platforms like the Nintendo DS and the iPod touch. The iPhone OS, he notes, has 21,178 games. The DS has just 3,680. Point taken.

Moving on to some new game demos now. First up: Ubisoft with Assassin’s Creed 2, which, we are told, is “all about visceral combat, brutal hand-to-hand combat and one-shot kills.” Behind the presenter, a warrior is mercilessly beaten into submission.

Schiller returns to the stage, “Boy, that looks like fun.”

Tapulous, the developer of Tap Tap Revenge, and Gameloft, follow, both introducing new games. Gameloft’s Nova–a first-person shooter with multiplayer option–seems a far more compelling effort than Tapulous’s Riddim Ribbon, which appears to be a Black Eyed Peas-heavy variation of Tap-Tap.

Up next, Electronic Arts, which is apparently headlining the games section of today’s event. EA’s Travis Boatman takes the stage to introduce Madden NFL 10. The game boasts both custom-kick and draw-a-play-on-screen features developed specifically for the iPhone OS. Madden NFL 10 is available today.

Schiller again returns to the stage. “The iPod touch is the most affordable gateway to the App Store,” he says, adding that $199 is a “magic price point” in the iPod market.

With that, he announces the iPod touch price cuts we heard about earlier this morning: An 8GB model for $199, 32GB for $299, and 64GB for $399. All three devices are significantly faster, says Schiller. Interestingly, none seem to feature that rumored camera.

Price drops as well for the nano, but we knew about these. Apple has dropped the price of the iPod shuffle as well: $59 and $79. And the company is offering them in a new selection of colors. Plus, there’s a special edition of the shuffle crafted from stainless steel.

Steve Jobs returns to the stage. So those are the iPods, but there is one more thing: A video camera. He talks about the exploding video market, mentions the Flip, etc. “We want to get in on this market as well and we’re doing it for free….Boy, this really is the new Apple,” he quips.

Yes, the iPod nano does indeed now feature a video camera. The video quality looks impressive. Whoa: Apple has also added FM radio, a voice recorder and a pedometer to the nano. New polished anodized aluminum colors. 8GB model for $149, 16GB model for $179.

After a few concluding remarks about the new iPod lineup, Jobs announces what has become an annual tradition at these events: A live performance. Today’s artist: Norah Jones.

The end of her set concludes today’s event. No iPlatform. No Beatles on iTunes. But lots of product refreshes, software intros, and price cuts. Plus: Steve Jobs is definitely back.

Live from Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event

• iPod Updates, Games, Nano Video Cameras
• iTunes 9, iTunes LP, Home Sharing, Genius Mixes
• Steve Jobs: “I’m Vertical, Back at Apple and Loving Every Day of It”
• Event Photos by Adam Tow

“We expect Apple to add new iPhone carriers in the U.S. within the next year (likely with a new product launch next summer), Munster writes. “By way of example, for various reasons the company moved from an exclusive relationship with French wireless carrier Orange to a multi-carrier model. In France, the company now enjoys dramatically higher market share (in the 40% range vs. about 15% in ROW) than in countries with exclusive carrier agreements (such as AT&T in the U.S. where the iPhone has market share in the mid-teens). We believe Apple is seeing the increased unit sell-through more than offset the slightly (~10%) deteriorated economics per unit involved in non-exclusive agreements.”

If Munster’s prediction proves true, it will undoubtedly be welcomed by iPhone owners–nearly a third of whom listed AT&T as the feature they dislike most in the iPhone in a recent ChangeWave survey. But it will be ugly news for AT&T (T), which could suffer some serious subscriber defections if the company loses its iPhone-exclusivity deal–particularly if Apple signs on Verizon (VZ) as a second carrier. As Pali Research recently noted:

“As the iPhone exclusivity period rolls off between AT&T Wireless and Apple, a material number of AT&T customers will flock to Verizon’s superior network. We estimate that nearly a third of AT&T’s post-paid customers are being retained by AT&T primarily because of the iPhone exclusivity.”

Never mind that it faces some particularly long, historic odds. That it has launched a new bet-the-company product in the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years, for example. That with the Pre, it is challenging Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, one of the most successful mobile phones in history. That it’s competing in a market crowded by the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) and Nokia (NOK), which shipped an astonishing 468 million phones in calendar 2008.

Never mind all that. Because, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) has the “special sauce”–the means of orchestrating a second act, perhaps even one of Jobsian proportions.

“Following a period of decline and facing oblivion, we believe Palm has the potential for a remarkable smartphone turnaround,” Abramsky writes in a lengthy research note on the wireless industry that I mentioned here yesterday as well. “With its new strategy, WebOS product line and under the direction of a new management team headed by ex-Apple executive Jon Rubinstein, Palm (like RIM and Apple) is, in our opinion, well-positioned for smartphone leadership.”

Abramsky sees a promising future: “Our outlook calls for Palm to quickly recover, growing from an estimated 1.3 percent data-centric smartphone shipment market share (0.2 percent TAM) or 2.2 million units in calendar 2009 to 3.6 percent share (1.3 percent of TAM) or 18.2 million units in calendar 2012. Targeting the PIM-centric segment of the Palm legacy, Palm in our view faces near-term risks, but has the ’special sauce.’” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

And what, exactly, is that? The stuff that goes between the two all-beef patties and the lettuce and cheese?

Not quite. Abramsky’s idea of special sauce includes vertical integration, “controlling the end-to-end smartphone software and hardware platform, a ground-up developed smartphone OS platform with unique innovations like multitasking, Synergy (user data integration), developer-friendly SDK, and compelling and clever hardware/software designs [that] all combine to offer a unique, iconic smartphone experience, differentiated from incumbent vendors.”

A hell of an ingredient list. But it’s one that the Pre and Palm’s webOS largely deliver on–despite some drawbacks. And if Palm can improve on that list, the company should have little trouble wooing back disenfranchised users and winning new ones.

Abramsky, again: “The huge positive reception to the launch of Palm’s Pre, its first WebOS device–despite the already broad awareness of iPhone–illustrates pent-up demand for innovative, non-intimidating smartphone user experiences. The accolades for Pre also show Palm has the potential to provide that rare iconic smartphone experience, above competitors, some incumbents and in the company of RIM and Apple.”

Which is pretty much what Palm has set out to do, as CEO Jon Rubinstein noted in the company’s last earnings call. “There is room for three to five players in this space,” he said. “We don’t have to beat one another to prosper.”

You do have to execute, though. And execution hasn’t historically been one of Palm’s strong suits. Perhaps it will improve with the addition of that special sauce Abramsky’s talking about.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything