“PC unit growth was stronger than we expected in all markets but Eastern Europe in the first quarter of 2009. In particular, consumer shipments were much stronger than we anticipated,” said Gartner’s George Shiffler. “However, professional shipments continued to struggle, and we think much of the growth in consumer units was due to vendors and the channel restocking inventories rather than an upsurge in demand.”

Well, hopefully that will all change after the October launch of Windows 7, right?

Nope. Not according to Gartner (IT), anyway. Unless Microsoft (MSFT) is planning another $300 million ad campaign featuring Jerry Seinfeld.

“Unless Microsoft mounts a major marketing campaign in support of Windows 7, we think consumers will simply adopt the new operating system as they would normally buy new PCs and/or replace old ones,” Shiffler said. “As for professional users, we still expect them to put off adopting the new OS for at least a year until they have fully tested their applications against it.”

Like the first ad in the campaign, “Shoe Circus,” this spot clearly isn’t intended to pitch anything. It’s meant to redeem and recondition Microsoft’s public image, which has been turned into a joke by Apple’s (AAPL) persistent and devastating mockery. Consider Cupertino’s latest “Get a Mac” ad in which John Hodgeman’s PC character presents a faux editorial, “Stop Switching to Mac!,” on Time.com, NYTimes.com and elsewhere.

How do you respond to something like that?

Perhaps by showing folks that you’re a market leader that’s not quite as stodgy as they’ve been lead to believe. “Just as somebody might tell a joke to lighten up a room or get somebody’s attention before changing gears, these first ads were designed to tap people on the shoulder and say, ‘Excuse me. We’re back and we’d love a few moments of your time,’ Windows Director Chris Flores explains. “Will seeing Bill and Jerry enjoy each other’s company make people run out and buy a new laptop? Or correct misperceptions some non-users might have about Windows Vista? Certainly not. We’d be crazy to think they would. That’s why we’re continuing the Mojave Experiment ads. That’s their job. And they do their job simply by giving people who’ve never done so an excuse to check out Windows Vista for themselves. But this campaign, when fully unveiled, will talk about Windows in all its forms. Not just the OS for PCs we happen to be shipping today. In fact, not just an OS. And not just on PCs. Simply put, this campaign isn’t about Windows Vista. It’s about Windows. That might not be what some folks were/are expecting. And it might be hard to believe given what you’ve seen so far. But remember, we have gone on record saying the broader campaign will ‘tell the Windows story’ and we intend to judge its success on that basis. In that light I think it’s pretty safe to conclude we don’t expect the little logo at the end of these spots to do all that work by itself.”

From: Bill Veghte
Sent: Thursday, September 04, 2008 5:37 PM
To: Microsoft – All Employees
Subject: Telling the story of Windows

This first set of ads features Bill Gates and comedian Jerry Seinfeld. Think of these ads as an icebreaker to reintroduce Microsoft to viewers in a consumer context. Later this month, as the campaign moves into its next phase, we’ll go much deeper in telling the Windows story and celebrating what it can do for consumers at work, at play and on-the-go. At that time, I’ll be back to share more information about our plans to further strengthen the bond between consumers and Windows–one of the most amazing products, businesses and brands of all time, and, with the right tenacity, passion and agility from all of us, a story that has many great chapters to come.

The success of Windows is our number one job. With SP1 and the work we’ve done with PC manufacturers and our software ecosystem, we’ve addressed device and application compatibility issues in Windows Vista. Now it’s time to tell our story. In the weeks ahead, we’ll launch a campaign to address any lingering doubts our customers may have about Windows Vista. And later this year, you’ll see a more comprehensive effort to redefine the meaning and value of Windows for our customers.”

– Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, July 23, 2008

So Microsoft’s widely publicized “edgy” ad campaign, the one designed to counter the Apple (AAPL) ads that have so eroded its brand, is to feature Jerry Seinfeld as celebrity pitchman. And in many ways that does more to illustrate the sad differences between the two companies than the “Mac vs. PC” ads it’s designed to combat. Because Microsoft (MSFT) has chosen as quarterback for this campaign a tired ’90s sitcom star who not only used a Mac in the series that made him famous, but closed out Apple’s 1997 “Crazy Ones” ad–which, ironically, aired only once, during the series finale of “Seinfeld.”

So Microsoft, in an effort to overhaul its image and upstage the cool kids down in Cupertino, seems to have done little but confirm the message of its rival’s ads: “I’m a Mac, You’re a Dork,” or, in this case, a dated comedian. Really, the company might as well have hired Don Rickles for the job. Certainly, he would have come cheaper than the $10 million Seinfeld is rumored to have demanded. And there’s life left yet in that “What are you lookin’ at, you hockey puck?!” line of his.

Anyway, in the end, it’s not marketing that’s the issue here. It’s the product.