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	<title>Digital Daily &#187; Jeff Lindsay</title>
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		<title>Analysts to Yahoo CEO: Where Are Those "Boatloads of Money" You Were Talking About?</title>
		<link>http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090729/hey-bartz-where-are-those-boatloads-of-money-you-were-talking-about/</link>
		<comments>http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090729/hey-bartz-where-are-those-boatloads-of-money-you-were-talking-about/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:06:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Digital Daily]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=22412</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wall Street is finally having its say about the newly announced Microsoft-Yahoo deal, and while opinions are mixed, there is some consensus on who got the better end of the deal: Microsoft. Seems the Street would have much preferred the "boatloads of money" Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz once said she'd demand for a search deal than the "boatloads of value" she claims to have given them this morning. After the jump, a roundup of analysts' notes issued about the deal.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/07/microsoft_as_yahoo.jpg" alt="microsoft_as_yahoo" title="microsoft_as_yahoo" width="150" height="104" class="alignright size-full wp-image-22414" />Wall Street is finally having its say about the newly announced Microsoft-Yahoo deal, and while opinions are mixed, there is some consensus on who got the better end of the deal: Microsoft. </p>
<p>Seems the Street would have much preferred the <a href="http://d7.allthingsd.com/20090527/yahoo-ceo-carol-bartz-well-sell-search-to-microsoft-for-a-boatload-of-money/">&#8220;boatloads of money&#8221;</a> Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz once said she&#8217;d demand for a search deal, than the <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090729/investors-to-yahoo-do-not-want/">&#8220;boatloads of value&#8221;</a> she claims to have given them this morning. As I write this, Yahoo (YHOO) shares are trading down more than 12 percent at $15.14. Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up 1.41 percent at $23.80.</p>
<p>Below, a roundup of analyst notes that have been issued on the deal.</p>
<p><strong>Jeff Lindsay, Bernstein Research:</strong> We believe Yahoo!&#8217;s search deal represents a significant positive for the company&#8217;s economics, as both Yahoo! and MSFT were too subscale to compete effectively versus Google.  Although the combined 30% search share is still less than half the size of Google, both Yahoo! and MSFT will realize significant cost savings from combining their search technologies.  In addition, the greater scale should increase the effectiveness of the search engine, driving revenue synergies through improved search monetization.   </p>
<p><strong>Sarah Friar, Goldman Sachs:</strong> We view the deal as positive for Microsoft as terms are better for the company than had been speculated (no upfront fee; 88% TAC) and the combined market share provides scale to drive efficiency and legitimacy/relevancy for Microsoft’s online investments. Yahoo!’s $3.0 bn/year search sales translates to $360 mn/year for Microsoft in revenues. Microsoft will incur incremental expenses when the deal closes (expected early CY10), but limited (if any) impact on FY10E and while investments will continue into FY11, our model already assumes sizable expenses.</p>
<p><strong>Douglas Anmuth, Barclays:</strong> YHOO-MSFT terms not nearly as favorable as anticipated, but we believe deal is neutral to the co&#8217;s L-T positioning. We would have liked to have seen an upfront payment, higher TAC, &#038; rev share on Bing.com searches among other things, but we like that YHOO maintains ability to sell search adv, &#038; therefore relationship with its largest advertisers. It&#8217;s unclear how favorable the deal will be to YHOO over time, but our fundamental reasons for owning shares remain the same. We expect better execution on the audience &#038; content biz &#038; specifically within display adv., &#038; we believe YHOO will be able to take out a meaningful amount of costs from the biz aside from search tech. over the next couple yrs.</p>
<p><strong>Peter Misek, Cannacord Adams:</strong> We are relieved that Microsoft did not have to provide an upfront payment as part of this deal while effectively garnering more scale. This deal provides Microsoft with a much needed boost in competing with Google (GOOG : NASDAQ : US$435.00 | BUY) as its search algorithm, Bing, is being catapulted to greater market share. In addition, utilizing Yahoo!’s sales force for premium search will allow Microsoft to lower expenses over the duration of the partnership while attempting to attract a greater level of advertisers for the combined platforms. We believe this is a much needed relief for Microsoft, but is one step in a greater battle. In the end this doesn not solve Microsoft&#8217;s competitive disadvantage with Google. Rather we think it accelerates Microsoft&#8217;s desire to think outside the box and come up with a non-linear way to catch Google.</p>
<p><strong>Heath Terry and Andrew Thomas, FBR Capital Markets:</strong> The lack of an up-front payment, no minimum revenue guarantee, and a revenue share that, while above average, is slightly below the +90% that larger deals command make for a lackluster deal for Yahoo!, in our opinion. The lack of any display component to the deal also seems like a missed opportunity for the company. As we see it, the only financial benefit to Yahoo! is the ability to shed the not insignificant technology costs associated with running a search engine. According to the company, this should result in an annual benefit to GAAP operating income of $500M&#8230;.Restructuring these two businesses and untangling them from their existing partnerships and internal ties will be a massive organizational challenge for both companies.</p>
<p><strong>Mark Mahaney, Citi Investment Research:</strong> Implications For YHOO &#8211; Positives: 1) YHOO believes deal would generate incremental $250MM in annual cash flow (17% accretive to our &rsquo;09 est)&#8211;assumptions very hard to test, but magnitude is reasonably conservative; 2) 88% TAC is higher than industry average, but as expected given deal size. Challenges: 1) No upfront payment to YHOO is a negative vs. expectations, tho guaranteed RPS provides significant backstop; 2) Lack of display advertising deal is a negative vs. expectations; &#038; 3) Acknowledgment of YHOO&#8217;s Search technology limitations.</p>
<p><strong>Todd Greenwald, Signal Hill Capital Group:</strong> The deal announced today will take a very long time to come to fruition we think, and will face several challenges&#8211;it will face regulatory hurdles given Microsoft&#8217;s antitrust history (though we&#8217;d expect it to ultimately get through given Google&#8217;s dominance). Additionally, it seems hard to fathom operationally, as it will require Yahoo&#8217;s salespeople to be selling Microsoft&#8217;s technology. Advertisers will want one point of contact (which would be Yahoo), though that point of contact won&#8217;t be entirely responsible for what they are selling&#8211;instead of bringing in an engineer from within the same building, the Yahoo salesperson may have to coordinate with a Microsoft employee up in Redmond. Not impossible, just tricky. And considering how smooth and automated the process of buying ads is on Google&#8217;s platform, this could prove to be a competitive disadvantage.</p>
<p><strong>Mark May, Needham &#038; Company:</strong> Search advertising is not a zero sum game, in our opinion. If Microsoft is able to make Yahoo! (and Microsoft) search more effective through this deal/combination, then we believe is will result in advertising spending more on the new search platform but not less on the Google platform. A more effect Yahoo!/Microsoft search platform does not mean Google search becomes less effective, and we believe there is more demand than supply for effective search marketing. The dollars will likely come from other, less effective, buckets. </p>
<p>Business 101 convincingly argues that most large M&#038;A deals and partnerships are not successful. And, most large-scale Internet media M&#038;A deals and partnerships have tended to under-perform their original promise (e.g., AOL Time Warner, Google/MySpace, etc.). Moreover, in the case of Yahoo!/Microsoft Search, you have two very different cultures and an expected 24 month transition process. The odds are stacked against this deal having a meaningfully impact on Google. And, over the next 2+ years while Yahoo! and Microsoft are trying to transition, Google will be innovating. </p>
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		<title>Yahoo Investors: We Would Have Preferred Steve Jobs&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090113/jerry-yang-is-out-premium-apparently-already-baked-into-yahoo-stock-price/</link>
		<comments>http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090113/jerry-yang-is-out-premium-apparently-already-baked-into-yahoo-stock-price/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:17:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Paczkowski</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Digital Daily]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=11236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The markets are having their say about Yahoo’s choice of Autodesk Chairwoman Carol Bartz as CEO and they don’t seem to much care for it. Though Bartz is a widely-respected Silicon Valley veteran and has done much to improve Autodesk’s fortunes, investors aren’t so sure she’ll do the same for Yahoo.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/files/2009/01/yhoo1196.jpg" alt="" title="yhoo1196" width="200" height="125" class="alignright size-full wp-image-11237" />The markets are having their say about <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090113/bartz-to-be-yahoo-ceo-now-what-next/">Yahoo&#8217;s choice of Autodesk Chairwoman Carol Bartz as CEO</a> and they don&#8217;t seem to much care for it. Though Bartz is a widely respected Silicon Valley veteran and has done much to improve Autodesk&#8217;s fortunes, investors aren&#8217;t so sure she&#8217;ll do the same for Yahoo (YHOO).</p>
<p><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=YHOO">Shares of the deteriorating Internet company</a> slipped on news of the impending announcement, falling more than two percent to $11.96. Earlier in the day, they&#8217;d been trading at $12.79.</p>
<p>Clearly, Bartz&#8217;s appointment doesn&#8217;t appear to be inspiring much confidence in investors&#8211;at least at the outset. Perhaps all her enterprise experience is proving a bit of a turnoff. Ten years as vice president at Sun Microsystems (JAVA). Board seats at  Intel (INTC), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and NetApp (NTAP). Where&#8217;s the Internet experience? Where&#8217;s Steve Jobs? Surely he could right this sinking ship.</p>
<p>“She was an inoffensive, but largely unexciting candidate&#8211;someone who would be a steady hand at the wheel&#8211;but investors were hoping for a lot more than that,” <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&#038;sid=a8dYx49HtfCA">Jeff Lindsay, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in New York, told Bloomberg</a>. “She’s undoubtedly a competent and able executive. The problem is, is she the right fit for the job?”</p>
<p>Likely a better fit than Jerry Yang. And that&#8217;s a start, right? Oh, there&#8217;s this as well: When Bartz started at Autodesk it had revenues of $285 million. Today it generates about $1.5 billion.  </p>
<p>Says Needham analyst Mark May:  </p>
<p><em>If the reports are accurate, our initial reaction is that we view Bartz as a good choice because:</p>
<ol>
<li> she has an established track record of running (CEO) a major public company (there are few/no such individuals w/ both major public CEO and new media experience)
<li> she has a strong technical background, having run Autodesk and served on the Boards of Cisco, Intel, NetApp and others
<li> based on our conversations, she is well-regarded by industry counterparts, investors and analysts
<li>  based on our conversations as well as a review of a series of presentations Bartz has given over the years, she not only shows great leadership qualities, but is thoughtful and passionate about a number of topics important to Yahoo today (e.g., global ops mgmt, consumer targeting/personalization, integration w/ wireless platforms, dealing w/ unexpected corp stresses, etc.)
<li> Bartz is a known quantity at the senior levels of Yahoo, w/ Yang having served w/ her on the Cisco board and Yahoo! President Sue Decker serving on the Intel board w/ her. </ol>
<p>Of course, there is more we’d like to see/hear before making our final determination, such as i) what’s Bartz’s strategy/vision; ii) will current President Sue Decker resign; iii) will Bartz hire a strong #2 w/ new media experience; and, iv) will Chairman Roy Bostock resign. That said, our initial reaction to the possibility of Bartz being named Yahoo!’s new CEO is favorable.</em></p>
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