That’s the word from Gartner, which back in March was claiming the decline would be just 3.8 percent. The research outfit said Tuesday that it expects tech spending to fall to $3.2 trillion this year, down from $3.4 trillion in 2008. And it sees all four major segments of IT–hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications–suffering revenue declines in 2009 (click on chart below).

“The forecast decline in spending growth for the hardware and software segments in 2009 has almost stabilized, and only minor downward revisions have been made to these forecasts this quarter,” said Gartner’s Richard Gordon. “However, the full impact of the global recession on the IT services and telecommunications sectors is still emerging, and forecast growth in these areas has been further reduced significantly.”

That said, the company sees a rebound of 2.3 percent in 2010.

Gartner (IT) is the latest research firm to temper its projections for information technology spending this year in light of the ever-souring economy. Last week Forrester (FORR) lowered its expectations for 2009, saying the first two quarters of the year were worse than expected and that the decline will carry out for the rest of the year. It did, however, say we can expect a rebound in 2010.

“Due to the current macro-economic conditions and limited visibility, EMC is not offering revenue, EPS or other financial outlook at this time, the company said in a statement. “EMC’s best estimate is that 2009 global IT spending will decline as a percentage in the mid to high single digits compared with 2008. The company expects the markets that it addresses will perform slightly better than the overall IT market. The company also expects that a higher than usual percentage of the full-year IT spending will take place in the second half of the year.”

Enterprise technology spending grew seven percent in 2007, according to a new report from Forrester Research (FORR). Spending grew 4.1 percent in 2008. And it was expected to grow 6.1 percent in 2009. But with information technology departments steeling themselves against the economic downturn, that’s no longer the case.

In 2009, enterprise tech spending will grow not 6.1 percent, but 1.6 percent, hamstrung by a cautious reprioritizing of buying habits. Now that’s far better then the 15 to 20 percent decline in tech spending that occurred in the 2001/2002 downturn, but it’s ugly nonetheless. A few bullets from the Forrester report:

• Computer equipment purchases will fall 3.1 percent in 2009, on top of a decline of 0.4 percent in 2008.
• Communications equipment growth will slow to 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Software purchases, which grew 5.8 percent in 2008, will slow to 3.4 percent in 2009.
• IT consulting and systems integration services will weaken. Growth will be 4.1 percent for 2008 and just 2.2 percent for 2009.

Disconcerting metrics, to be sure. As Forrester aptly notes, “The question for the U.S. tech market is no longer whether the U.S. economy is in recession–instead, it is how long and deep the recession will be and how much damage will it do to the tech sector.” The research outfit optimistically suggests that the recession will last into mid-2009. Hopefully, that prediction will prove true. Because if it doesn’t, the alternative view is frightening indeed. Says Forrester, “The most likely alternative to our assumption of a four-quarter U.S. recession is a deeper and longer recession that lasts five to seven quarters. The causes of a nasty and persistent recession of this kind would be the downward spiral of consumer and business confidence, which feeds further declines in the housing market and business investment, which cripples the financial sector and leads to more cutbacks in consumer and business confidence.”

Really? Leaving aside for a moment the fact that Microsoft already has a mobile OS in Windows Mobile and the fact that RIM’s client architecture is, you know, based on Linux, wouldn’t a merger between two of the largest players in the smartphone market invite antitrust scrutiny?