Kara began Monday with some of the hard facts from the pending AOL-TimeWarner (TWX) split. Stock issued for the post-spinoff AOL places the company’s total implied value at around $3 billion. Also on the list of stuff from 1994 being jettisoned from tech companies is the original instant messenger, ICQ. Kara reported that AOL seeks to shed the brand in an effort to keep the larger ship afloat. Over at Yahoo (YHOO), Kara opened the lid on CEO Carol Bartz’s shifting of top execs. In Silicon Valley’s house of cards, everyone watches out for a shuffle.

Over at Digital Daily, John brought some hard numbers to the stresses being felt by AT&T’s (T) 3G network thanks to a certain fruit-flavored smartphone. It seems that the iPhone is largely responsible for the 2,000 percent increase in data traffic in the San Francisco Bay Area compared with a year ago. (Weekend Update doesn’t claim sole responsibility.) Keeping up with layoff news these days is almost a full-time job. It’s a good thing Paczkowski is on the case. This week, Sony-Ericsson let roughly 2,000 employees go. The firm plans to shutter whole offices in both the United States and abroad. John finished strong with a whole slew of posts about the forthcoming Google (GOOG) Chrome OS, which was released in a developer’s beta this week. Next year, the good kids may be getting their stockings filled with Chrome rather than Apples.

You can never tell what MediaMemo will have up its sleeve in a given week, and this one was no exception. Peter came in early with reports that Wired magazine is another publication betting on a certain tablet. Wired may pave the way for other Condé Nast publication e-editions. From the department of “Hey, it looks like it worked for them,” a couple of music giants will release a Hulu-like service for music videos. No word yet on whether the Internet killed the video star. Peter closed it out this week with the fizzle that will be Oprah’s broadcast career. The talk-show-host-turned-deity will end her broadcast career in 2011, but may not be sorely missed by CBS, according to MediaMemo. Everyone is pretty torn up about Gail leaving though.

Personal Technology went a little off the reservation this week and covered an intriguing specialty gadget with a very specific target audience. The reading aid for the visually impaired is unusual for many reasons, not the least of which is that its branded Intel (INTC) both on the inside and outside. The reader uses a downward-facing camera to read text and translate it directly to speech. Walt was pleased with the device on the whole, though he encountered some bugs and a somewhat steep learning curve that may be a function of the novel nature of the product. Over at Mossberg’s Mailbox, the lead question this week was about data loss. Once the geek shudders stopped, Walt let the reader know that there are many alternatives to Apple’s (AAPL) Time Capsule drives, and the integrated Time Machine option is one useful alternative. At Mossberg Solution, Katie won a fight with a Pixi and brought us the blow-by-blow account. The cheap-and-cheerful version of the Palm (PALM) Pre features a stripped-down price. That savings came at too high a performance cost, said Katie. She praised Palms webOS, but came down on the side of spending a little more to get the Pre.

Stay tuned and check back often. Weekend Update will be back next week as long as we can make it out for the Black Friday sales with all our fingers and toes.

Another sad turn of events for Nokia (NOK), whose dominance of the smartphone market is being steadily eroded by competition from the likes of Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM). In its latest quarter, the company’s smartphone market share declined to 35 percent from 41 percent. This slide is likely to continue unless Nokia is able to inspire a major revival in its smartphone volumes with a worthy iPhone rival.

The report, should it prove true, will no doubt be a disappointment to overanxious tabletites awaiting the mysterious device’s arrival, but really, that’s immaterial to Apple (AAPL). In the end, a six-month delay is simply six more months of rumor and speculation with which to build the bonfire of publicity that will erupt when (and if) the tablet/slate arrives.

Moreover, the tablet market is a nascent one; it’s not as if Apple is losing market share to its rivals by delaying entry. It’s best, then, for the company to take it’s time and uncrate the tablet/slate when confident that it has everything right. As Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote in a research note to investors Thursday, “the exact timing is irrelevant given Street models do not currently reflect the tablet, expectations for actual units in 2010 are low, and investors focus is more on whether the tablet is real and less on timing.”

Munster, it’s worth noting, envisions Apple’s tablet/slate as a $500-700 device about three times the size of the iPod touch.

“We expect the tablet hardware to be similar to an iPod touch but larger; we expect the key differentiator of the device to be its software,” Munster writes. “While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple’s iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store. We believe Apple’s tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook.”

If you find this metric as astonishing as I do, consider this: The increase in Bay Area data traffic is actually below the national average–significantly below. According to AT&T (T) CTO John Donovan, 3G data traffic on the company’s wireless network has risen nearly 5,000 percent in the past 12 quarters nationally (see chart below; click to enlarge).

“Today, we’re seeing unprecedented growth in mobile broadband traffic,” Donovan said during his keynote at the Open Mobile Conference on Nov. 5. “This growth has required extensive rethinking of wireless networks as we know them, as well as significant advances in the supporting IP backbone and other infrastructure.”

A 5,000 percent increase in 3G data traffic: That’s an astonishing figure. Seems to me it’s entirely likely that any carrier that had been first with the iPhone–including catcalling rival Verizon (VZ)–would have suffered network troubles similar to those that plague AT&T today.

No other U.S. carrier offers a super-smartphone that has sold as well as the iPhone and that people use much like a laptop. Sure, Android and Palm (PALM) webOS devices are used in this way as well, but there are far fewer of them and they have significantly fewer data-hungry apps.

Research in Motion (RIMM) offers some BlackBerries that are used this way, but only some, and there are only 3,000 or so apps available for them. iPhone owners have 100,000 apps from which to choose. And while it’s obvious that there are more BlackBerries in use than iPhones, some of these rely on AT&T’s network, which only compounds the carrier’s problems.

So, really, any carrier that had been first to market with the iPhone would have seen its network overtaxed, especially after Apple (AAPL) launched the iPhone 3G and the iTunes App Store. Those events effectively upended traditional planning models for network capacity in a way that no one was prepared for.

Perhaps other carriers would have fared a bit better. Verizon’s 3G network, even back in 2007, was much deeper and broader than AT&T’s. But could it really have supported a 5,000 percent increase in data traffic without incident? I’m not so sure.

Which is not to say that AT&T is blameless. Its network has lagged and continues to do so, and the iPhone and the massive surge in data traffic it brought with it are not entirely responsible for that.

But they are obviously a big factor. It will be interesting, then, to see how Verizon’s network holds up in comparison if and when the carrier gets the iPhone.

[Image Credit: Morgan Stanley Managing Director Mary Meeker]

Make no mistake, that surge has been massive. Says AT&T (T): “Since 2008 AT&T’s network in the San Francisco area has experienced a 3G data traffic increase of 2,000 percent.”

Wow. No wonder my calls kept dropping at that last Apple (AAPL) event in San Francisco (yes, an iPhone 3G repeatedly dropping calls at Apple’s Sept. invitation-only music gathering). In any event, the upgrade, which includes the bolstering of backbone infrastructure, should result in better coverage, 3G performance and in-building penetration.

“More than ever before, customers look to wireless communications to stay in touch with family, friends and business colleagues,” said Terry Stenzel, AT&T vice president and general manager for Northern California/Reno. “The additional spectrum helps to enhance the 3G network so that our customers have the best experience when they make a call, check an e-mail, download a video or song, access applications or surf the Internet on their AT&T device.”

Odd to learn that Apple (AAPL) was considering such a move. After all, advertising isn’t exactly one of its core businesses, though it might have become one had it managed to buy AdMob, which is one of the largest sellers of advertisements on the iPhone.

“If a lot of traffic goes through my devices, why can’t I become the middleman that serves ads against that inventory?” said IDC analyst Karsten Weide. “AdMob would have allowed them to do that quickly.”

Indeed. If that’s what Apple wanted. And perhaps the company is interested in expanding into online advertising, as this “Advertising in Operating System” patent seems to suggest.

That said, it’s equally conceivable that Apple met with AdMob hoping to temper Google’s (GOOG) fast-expanding footprint in the mobile space and on the iPhone. With the acquisition of AdMob, the search sovereign is now the Internet’s largest mobile advertising company, with a dominant presence on the iPhone and any handset running its Android OS. Perhaps Apple’s intent was simply to make this a more costly endeavor for Google. But perhaps it was something more.

According to new data released this week by Gartner, Apple shipped some 7.04 million iPhones in the third quarter–up from just 4.72 million phones in the same period a year ago–for a 17.1 percent share of the market (see table below; click to enlarge).

That’s a 49.2 percent year-over-year increase in sales and it puts Apple (AAPL) in spitting distance of Research in Motion (RIMM), which also posted close to a 50 percent year-over-year gain to claim 21 percent of smartphone sales during the period.

With 39 percent of smartphone sales, Nokia (NOK) was the top seller during the period, and it’s clearly not ceding its spot any time soon. But RIM might, given the small gap between its market share and Apple’s.

In any case, RIM clearly has a fight on its hands as we head in the holidays, especially if Apple brings an 8GB iPhone 3GS to market in the next few weeks.

UPDATE: According to Apple’s last earnings announcement, the company said it shipped 7.4 million iPhones during the quarter. Why there’s a discrepancy between the company’s numbers and Gartner’s isn’t clear.

Once again, AT&T (T) argues that coverage maps featured in Verizon’s (VZ) ad are misleading and falsely suggest that AT&T offers no coverage in areas where it actually does service.

“Contrary to the image presented in the Verizon ads, our wireless network is pervasive,” said an AT&T spokesman. “It covers over 300 million people, or 97 percent of the U.S. population. Our fastest, or 3G, network covers approximately 233 million people, or 75 percent of the U.S. population….[Verizon's] use of white space is misleading.”

While AT&T is deadly serious about this accusation, the fact that it must make it by referencing creatures like the Abominable Snow Monster and a pink spotted elephant makes it, well, hysterical.

“The ‘Island of Misfit Toys’ television advertisement is a parody of the ‘Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer’ television special that depicts an island to which Rudolph travels after escaping an attack from the Abominable Snow Monster,” AT&T argues in its complaint. “The advertisement begins with outdated, discarded toys expressing surprise at the arrival of an Apple iPhone. The red Charlie-in-the-Box says ‘Hey! Check out the new guy!’ The spotted elephant, in a surprised manner, asks the iPhone ‘What are you doing here? You can download apps and browse the web!’ and a Dolly for Sue asserts that ‘Yeah. People will love you [the iPhone].’”

The complaint continues: “In response, a blue AT&T coverage map depicting large swaths of ‘white’ or ‘blank’ space across the United States appears above the iPhone. All the toys exclaim ‘Oh . . .’ in dismay, while the iPhone wilts and its screen turns dark. The toy airplane then assures the iPhone that ‘you’re going to fit right in here!’”

Finally, as AT&T describes it, “AT&T’s and Verizon’s coverage maps then appear and the announcer states, ‘with five times more 3G coverage than AT&T, Verizon Wireless is your destination for great gifts.’ The image of the sad and wilting iPhone on an island of misfit toys falsely communicates that the iPhone is a broken device because it cannot browse the web or download applications when outside of AT&T’s depicted coverage area. Further, the maps in the advertisement deceive consumers into believing that AT&T’s customers have no coverage whatsoever when they are outside of AT&T’s depicted coverage area and thus cannot use their wireless devices in many parts of the United States.”

Verizon’s attorneys are probably doubled over with laughter at this very moment.

Below, AT&T’s amended complaint in its entirety:

VerizonAmendComp _3_ –

Judging by Orange’s first-day sales, the debut was quite a success. The iPhone went on sale at 7 am Tuesday and by 4 pm, Orange had sold more than 30,000. Not bad. In fact, according to Orange, it’s a new record. Said a spokesperson for the carrier: “Orange is delighted to reveal, that as of 4 PM yesterday, it…sold more than 30,000 iPhones across the UK–smashing what we believe is the previously published first-day sales record for a handset in the UK.”

Orange also claims to have registered roughly 250,000 iPhone presubscriptions, of which only a fraction have been fulfilled. If that is the case, the carrier will end up with a million iPhone users by the end of 2010.

“We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.”

Palm CEO Ed Colligan, December 2006

“Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan? I said that’s the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good e-mail machine.”

– Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, January 2007

At 37.9 percent, Nokia’s share of the global handset market is the largest in the industry. Odd then to learn that it is not the most profitable. And odder still to learn that that honor belongs to Apple, which has been in the handset market for just two years.

According to Strategy Analytics, Apple’s third-quarter iPhone operating profit was $1.6 billion, while Nokia’s was $1.1 billion. Driving Apple’s profits: Strong sales, high wholesale prices and tight cost controls.

“We have identified at least 4 key factors underlying Apple’s success,” Strategy Analytics analyst Alexander Spektor explains. “First, Apple created a simple sub-brand–the iPhone–which was memorable and easy to remember. Second, the firm developed an attractive family of models with standout usability that enabled Apple to charge way-above-average prices to operators and consumers. Third, Apple distributed and co-marketed its handsets through top-tier carriers in numerous high-value countries. And fourth, the vendor has kept a solid grip on production costs by working with Foxconn, the world’s largest contract handset manufacturer.”

Quite an achievement for Apple (AAPL) and a major humiliation for Nokia (NOK), which has seen its dominance eroded by the likes of Apple and Research in Motion (RIMM), and not just in North America, but in Europe. Indeed, in its latest quarter Nokia’s smart-phone market share dropped by six points.

As Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston noted at the time, “[Nokia has] no iPhone killer to drive a major revival in its smartphone volumes. [It] is still struggling in the U.S. smartphone market, and with competition intensifying in China as well, Nokia’s battles can only get tougher in 2010.”

Indeed, Broadpoint AmTech analyst Mark McKechnie estimates Verizon (VZ) sold about 100,000 Droids in its first weekend. McKechnie believes the carrier had about 200,000 units on-hand at launch, and most stores he surveyed had sold at least half of their stock over the weekend.

That’s not nearly the one million iPhones Apple (AAPL) sold during the first weekend of its latest model debut, but it’s impressive nonetheless. Certainly, Motorola (MOT) hasn’t moved that many handsets in so short a period in a very long time–if ever.

“I see the first few days as encouraging,” McKechnie told Bloomberg. “There seems to be pretty good demand–they’ve taken the right steps and picked a good partner with Google on the Android side.”

Citigroup (C) analyst Jim Suva agreed, noting that Droid doesn’t require iPhone-like sales to be successful. Said Suva: “Although the press is stating the Droid launch was not as successful as the iPhone launch, we don’t believe investors expected an iPhone-like launch, but rather a first step in a cadence of products that will help bring Motorola’s handsets out of the death spiral experienced during the past three years.”

Then there was this from RBC’s Mark Sue, who declared that anyone expecting a launch reminiscent of the iPhone’s was expecting too much: “Motorola’s Droid landed at Verizon and while the new device is not the be all and end all for Motorola it’s an important beginning for a company that sorely missed out of a growing market,” he wrote. “There were no around-the-block lines of consumers waiting to get their hands on a Motorola Droid, yet investors shouldn’t expect them either. We’re looking for a steady ramp instead towards our estimate of approximately 1M units in 4Q09.”

All of the new commercials are Christmas-themed and all feature Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, though they are careful to leave it unscathed by Verizon’s criticism of AT&T (T). The standout among the three, this re-creation of the “Island of Misfit Toys” scene from the 1964 Rankin/Bass stop-motion animated Christmas television special, “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer.” Note that the conceit of the ad is that iPhone has been banished to the Island of Misfit Toys not because of its quality but because of of AT&T’s 3G network.

A pretty brilliant escalation of Verizon’s marketing battle with AT&T and one that suggests through its deference to the iPhone that there may be more to these Verizon iPhone rumors than previously thought.

Below, Verizon’s other two ads.

“Demand for converged mobile devices has remained strong all year,” said IDC analyst Ramon Llamas. Driving that demand: Nokia (NOK), which maintained its position as the overall leader in the converged mobile device market, Research In Motion (RIMM), whose BlackBerry made some significant share gains internationally, and Apple (AAPL) and the iPhone, whose share of the smart-phone market rose to 17.1 percent from 16.6 percent in the previous quarter (see table below; click to enlarge).

“Apple reached its highest volume yet in a single quarter,” Llamas said. “The nearly global availability of the iPhone 3GS sparked another round of annual replacements for Apple loyalists, while the lower price on the iPhone 3G put the device well within reach of customers wary of the price. Although the iPhone has struggled within emerging markets, its arrival at China Unicom this year could foreshadow greater shipment volumes.”

[Image credit: AMUSEMENT]