That’s nowhere near the one million iPhone 3Gs Apple (AAPL) sold in the first three days of the device’s launch in 2008. Nor is it the 13,500-a-day Apple sold during the first 74 days of the original iPhone’s debut. Disappointing to say the least — even if there are already an estimated 1.5 million to two million gray-market iPhones in use in China.

“We view the 5k units as soft,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a note to clients this morning. “Using the Jun-07 U.S. launch as a comparison we would have expected about 30k units….We originally thought China would contribute about 1-2m iPhones to our 36m unit estimate for 2010. The launch runrate of about 1,500 units per day would suggest 550k units per year.”

Nonetheless, Munster is maintaining expectations. “We are maintaining our overall numbers,” the analyst notes, “despite the soft China launch based on our belief that other wild cards remain for upside to our iPhone units in CY10 including the rollout to new carriers. We believe that eventually China will emerge as a major market for iPhone sales but it could take a year or two to gain meaningful unit traction as it did in the U.S.”

[Image credit: Mobile163.com]

“The commission has endorsed the local sale of the iPhone and the launch of its service within the limits of the law,” said Lee Tae-hee, a spokesman of the Korea Communications Commission. “If Apple includes location based-related details as a form of an agreement to its strategic partners such as KT, Apple’s iPhone can give location-related services here.”

Great news for Apple (AAPL). The South Korean market is a robust one, and analysts say that with the right carrier partner, Cupertino could be looking at sales over the first year ranging from 500,000 to two million. That said, they note that competing with the likes of Samsung and LG on their home turf won’t be easy. Between them, they control about 70 percent of the South Korean handset market.

“There seem to be a lot of people waiting for iPhones to go on sale here but it will not be easy for Apple to crack the Korean market as Samsung and LG already dominate the market with competitive phones,” said Jae Lee, analyst at Daiwa Securities in Seoul. “It will be difficult for Apple to steal market share significantly from the Korean makers in the short term but the iPhone could still be a threat to Samsung and LG in the long term.”

When the iPhone finally does arrive at market in South Korea, it will likely be with KT (formerly known as Korea Telecom) as a carrier partner. As Dan Butterfield over at iPhonAsia notes, KT CFO Yeon-hak Kim suggested as much this past summer. “Apple iPhone will be in our smartphone line-up,” he said in August. “iPhone will help to expand the smartphone market and will contribute to increasing the ARPU (average revenue per user).”

KT officials are telling the Korea Times that they’re looking at a November launch date. “KT has been in talks with Apple to introduce iPhones,” said a KT official. “Sometime in November, the latest iPhone model dubbed as ‘iPhone 3GS’ and its previous model will be commercialized. KT and Apple will decide on the coverage of location-based services.”

“Based on our channel checks, the iPhone remains the best selling device at AT&T with both the new $200/$300 iPhone 3GS and $100 legacy iPhone selling very well,” Piper Jaffary analyst Gene Munster said in a research note today.

“In July, our checks had indicated store managers were strongly recommending the legacy iPhone,” Munster notes, “as we believe this was partially driven by store representatives hoping to make the sale with the 3GS stocked out combined with efforts to reduce existing inventory levels of the legacy iPhone. However, in August, our checks indicate store managers are increasingly recommending the 3GS, and we believe this is driven by improved availability of the 3GS at most AT&T stores.”

Munster summarizes: “Overall, the iPhone remains the best selling device and our August checks indicate the iPhone took share from BlackBerry, the Nokia E71x, and most other competitor products. Finally, in our checks at Best Buy, store managers indicated the iPhone was their best selling device with stores selling out of stock as soon as they received the Apple smartphones.”

A bullish assessment, with an even more bullish conclusion: Munster says he expects Apple (AAPL) to ship seven million iPhones in the quarter. If that’s truly the case, Apple should have no trouble beating Wall Street’s expectations for its current quarter despite the gloomy economy.

One last point worth noting here: Munster is not bullish on Apple’s event tomorrow. He describes it as a “non-event,” though he seems convinced Steve Jobs will host it. “We expect Steve Jobs to introduce a new iPod lineup with a new iPod touch, new nanos, and a new classic, with cameras in the new models,” he notes. “We expect the stock to trade off on a lack of surprising announcements.”

“We still have a backlog of subscribers but it’s not unmanageable and we get shipments every week. We’ll be short for a while but we’re catching up.”

– Sprint Nextel CFO Bob Brust, June 24, 2009

[This post was updated at 12:36 with comment from Sprint.]

Sprint best step up its marketing efforts for the Pre because according to Pali Research, demand for Palm’s new device is slowing, and quickly.

During the week ending June 26, Pali estimates that Sprint sold 50,000-60,000 Pre handsets. In the weeks that followed, Sprint sold “less than 40,000,” and then, “over 30,000”–again, according to Pali. Now the research outfit says Pre sales have declined by another 5,000 units.

“We really aren’t sure what Sprint is waiting for in stepping up the ad campaign but Palm Pre sales have continued to slow over the past two weeks and we believe Sprint is currently selling roughly 25,000 per week, down from over 30,000 two weeks ago and over 50,000 in late June,” Pali analyst Walter Piecyk said in a research note this morning. “Advertising could increase in the coming weeks but we are headed into August and there is a new BlackBerry now vying for the attention of wireless customers.”

And don’t forget that $99 Apple iPhone 3G.

Piecyk concludes by suggesting that Sprint (S), by failing to market the hell out of the Pre, is fumbling the best opportunity to come its way in a while.

“Slowing sales cannot be helping CEO Dan Hesse’s ability to extend the exclusive period for the Pre as Palm (PALM) likely views a Verizon launch as something that could materially stimulate sales,” Piecyk said.

“Hesse has never been one to resort to price cuts but we wonder if dropping the Pre to $99 could reignite sales,” the analyst continued. “…Sprint’s future is certainly not tied to the Pre but this is a great product that could highlight their data network. We believe they are squandering this opportunity over the past few weeks. Sprint is still not in a strong enough position to let good opportunities pass them by.”

And what does Sprint think of that assessment? Not much. Reached for comment, a spokesperson told me: “we are very pleased with the performance of the Pre and the excitement it’s drawn; we are selling all the quantities that are being delivered to us and we are ramping up advertising this month — did you see the full-page ads this week comparing the value and performance of the Pre to the iPhone? — and we are expanding availability of the handset at Best Buy, Radio Shack and online, with future expansion of availability planned. As Dan Hesse noted in California today, it takes a number of months — through a whole ramped-up sales cycle — to determine the real performance of a handset in the marketplace. Folks like to speculate and toss around ideas on the internet all the time, but the truth is Sprint is very happy with how the Pre is doing.”

Demand for Apple’s iPhone 3GS, which topped one million handsets sold in its first weekend at market, has surpassed even the company’s presumably aggressive targets. Reporting earnings Tuesday, Apple (AAPL) said it sold 5.2 million iPhones in its third quarter and finally copped to something that’s long been apparent to anyone who’s been keeping an eye on its iPhone availability widget: Demand for the new iPhone 3GS is far outpacing supply.

“The iPhone 3GS is currently constrained in virtually every country we’re shipping in…and we’re working very hard to fulfill that demand,” Apple COO Tim Cook said during a conference call with analysts, adding that if the situation persists, some overseas launches might be delayed.

“In terms of affecting the country rollout, I believe the vast majority of the countries that we are selling the 3G in we will be selling the 3GS I think by the end of the fiscal quarter,” Cook said. “It may move a date by a few weeks here or there…I don’t want to predict today when supply and demand will balance. I know that it will not balance in the short term. And I don’t want to give a prediction, because as you can guess it’s very difficult to gauge the demand without having the supply there to find out what it is.”

Cook added that Apple expects to bring the 3GS to most countries where the iPhone 3G is currently available by the end of the September quarter.

One last point worth noting here: Voracious demand for the iPhone has made the device the second-largest contributor to Apple’s bottom line, surpassing the iPod for the first time. Revenue for the iPod for the quarter slipped 11 percent to $1.492 billion, down from $1.678 billion. Meanwhile iPhone revenue grew 303 percent to $1.689 billion, accounting for 19 percent of the $8.3 billion in revenue Apple reported in its third fiscal quarter.

Amazing to think the device debuted just two years ago. If Apple’s business model is as, as Steve Jobs likes to say, a stool that rests on three legs–the Mac, the iPod and the iPhone–then it’s increasingly becoming one that never wobbles.

In an investment note issued this morning, Munster estimated that the company sold 750,000 iPhones over the weekend–25 percent fewer than the one million units of the iPhone 3G model Apple sold during the launch of that device last July, but 50 percent more than the 500,000 he originally predicted.

“The only true benchmark for judging the launch of the iPhone 3G S will be the time it takes Apple to sell 1 million units. Apple sold 1 million 1st generation iPhones in 74 days and 1 million iPhone 3G units in 3 days. We are uncertain whether or not Apple will announce the 1 millionth iPhone 3G S; regardless, we are increasingly confident in our 5 million iPhone unit estimate for the June 09 quarter following the price drop of the iPhone 3G from $199 to $99 in early June and the launch for the iPhone 3G S, where interest in the device surpassed our expectations.”

A few other points worth noting from Munster’s note. The analyst surveyed 256 customers at Apple (AAPL) stores in New York and Minneapolis over the weekend about their preferred OS, the size of the iPhone they were purchasing and the phones from which they were upgrading, among other things (see table below; click to enlarge). In the 256, he found a mix of 66 percent Mac users and 34 percent PC, similar to what he found last year (61 percent Mac, 39 percent PC).

Of those surveyed, 43 percent purchased the high-end 32-gigabyte iPhone 3GS, less than the 66 percent of buyers who purchased the 16GB iPhone 3G last year. And 56 percent were upgrading from an old iPhone–up from 38 percent last year. “We believe this shows Apple is developing brand loyalty not enjoyed by other mobile phone makers,” Munster notes.

“At the outset of the company’s iPhone initiative, one of Apple’s goals was to develop the kind of brand loyalty it has developed among Mac and iPod customers, and we believe they are succeeding thus far. As the footprint expands, and loyalty expands as well, Apple will increasingly enjoy a base of customers who regularly upgrade to the newest version of the mobile phones the company releases in what appears to be an annual cycle.”

Schiller announces iPhone 3Gs. S is for speed. “This is a really fast iPhone.” Loads apps and Web sites very, very quickly. NYTimes.com loads more than 3x as fast. Schiller says its about 2x faster than the iPhone 3G. As expected, the device features a brand new 3 megapixel autofocus camera. Auto-focus. Auto-white balance. Auto-exposure. Tap-to-focus. Improved low-light sensitivity. Auto-macro. “The best thing about this camera is it also captures video.” 30 FPS VGA with audio. Auto-focus, etc. Quick demo of video shows that quality is impressive. Videos are stored alongside pix in the picture application. Edit and share videos with the tap of a finger. “And if my carrier supports it, I can even send these things via MMS,” Schiller quips in a poke at AT&T.

Also new in the 3Gs: Voice Control. Features a brand new UI that displays the commands you can use. Some examples: “Call John.” “Call 414.555.5555.” “Play Songs by The Who.” “Play more songs like this” (using Genius feature). Also on-board in the new device, a built-in digital compass that’s capable of orienting to the direction a user is heading.

Schiller rattling off new features. Improved security. Improved accessibility features. Improved battery life. 5 hours 3G talk time. 30 hours audio. “This is the fastest, most powerful iPhone yet,” says Schiller. Price? $199 for 16GB. $299 for 32GB. Both available in black and white. Apple (AAPL) will keep the current 8GB 3G on the market at $99. Lots of applause. That $99 3G is available TODAY. When will the 3Gs arrive at market? June 19 for initial launch and then a fast and massive roll-out to 80 countries.

Lights dim to view a new iPhone ad. Big selling point is clearly video. Schiller returns to the stage for the warp-up. Will there be a “one more thing?” Doesn’t look like it. Now thanking all the Apple teams involved in these new products. And … that’s all she wrote.

Check out our WWDC 2009 Full-Coverage special feature for more WWDC news.

The Palm (PALM) Pre officially went on sale this morning, and judging from initial reports–and my experience at a local Northern California Sprint store–neither demand or supply was particularly overwhelming. Certainly, lines for the device were far shorter than those that extended from Apple (AAPL) stores for the launches of the iPhone and the iPhone 3G.

Arriving outside my local Sprint (S) store about an hour after they first opened, I found not a queue of eager Pre-buyers, but two kids making forts out of a few Pre shipping boxes left outside the store. Inside the store, I found a group of nine people waiting in line to add their names to a waiting list for the device, which was already sold out at this location. A Sprint rep refused to tell me how many Pres had been sold this morning, but admitted that the shipment had been a small one.

The situation is apparently the same across the country. The Boston Globe reports that Sprint’s Back Bay store sold out of its 55 Pres by 11 AM. An informal survey by 24/7 Wall Street reveals sell outs or fast-dwindling supplies of the device at Sprint and Best Buy stores in Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Four of the five Best Buy stores I contacted reported selling out of the Pre very quickly; one representative told me his store had just four of the devices and he believed that to be the case at many other locations.

Sprint stores I spoke with in LA, Chicago and Boston told me they’d sold out by late morning.

Q: How many names on the list? A: “We’re not allowed to say.” A reader tells me that the line outside the W. Division Street in Chicago was at least 50 people long, and that the store started wait-listing people somewhere around #36. Another reader reports a line of about 20 people outside an Emeryville, CA Sprint store. That same reader claims a clerk told him the store had 60 Pres on hand. Still another reader reports that the line outside Sprint’s Market Street store in San Francisco started at 6 AM this morning. There were a dozen or so folks in line by about 7:30 AM. Finally, another reader reports that a Sprint store in San Francisco’s Castro district had a line of about 40 people when she showed up to get in line at 7 AM. That location, too, sold out quickly.

Four phones at the local Best Buy? Stores in Marin, LA and Chicago sold out within hours? Makes you wonder if Palm and Sprint are purposely constraining supply to foster an image of overwhelming demand.

On April 1, 2009, that will all change. The Korea Communications Commission today agreed to lift the WIPI requirement, opening the South Korean market to the iPhone, BlackBerry and other devices to which it had been effectively closed. “Mobile-phone operators have been required to use the WIPI mobile platform on their handsets, but considering global industry trends toward the use of general-purpose mobile operating systems, we concluded that there was a need to allow carriers the freedom to decide whether to use WIPI or not,” Shin Yong-sub, the director of KCC’s policy bureau, told the Korea Times. “Consumers will also be able to choose from a wider variety of products and benefit from increased price competition from handset makers.”

Top among those products, the iPhone, which carriers K Telecom and KTF are both said to be interested in adding to their lineups.

Who knows what the future will be, given the worldwide economic slowdown. But we ranked as the third largest mobile phone supplier in revenues. Not bad for being in the market for only 15 months.”

– Apple CEO Steve Jobs, during a rare appearance on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call

With the holiday consumer binge nearly upon us and lower-income households reportedly turning to Apple’s iPhone 3G as a means of saving money they might otherwise spend on a separate broadband connection and cellphone service, one would think that the company would be headed for another blowout quarter. Apple (AAPL) sold 6.9 million iPhones in its last quarter; no reason to think it won’t sell a similar number in the next, especially when they will have been more broadly available around the world.

Right?

Maybe. Maybe not. Claiming that some two million of the 6.9 million phones Apple sold in the last quarter are still sitting in carrier inventories, some bearish folks suggest that the econalypse will prevent Apple from producing another big quarter. Others, like research outfit JRPG, are more optimistic. With the iPhone now widely available across Europe and Asia, JRPG says Apple could sell as many as eight million iPhones, even if the financial crisis stalls state-side sales. “It’s not that we don’t believe that the recession will bite hard across Europe and Asia,” JRPG said in a note to clients Friday. “But it won’t bite the man in the Street until after Christmas.”

So, apparently it’s not the upcoming quarter that Apple investors may have to worry about, but the one that follows. …

Apple (AAPL) activated some 2.4 million iPhone 3Gs in the quarter, with about 40 percent of them going to new customers. Unfortunately, these robust sales actually tempered earnings growth because AT&T (T) is so heavily subsidizing the device’s upfront purchase cost. AT&T posted earnings of $3.2 billion, or 55 cents per share, for the third quarter, up from a profit of $3.1 billion, or 50 cents per share during the same period last year. iPhone subsidies, however, cost it 10 cents a share. But that’s money well spent, according to AT&T, which says iPhone owners generate more revenue per person for the company than the typical wireless customer and are less likely to cancel service. And the company’s got 50.5 percent growth in wireless data revenues from Internet access, messaging, email and related services, and 15.4 percent growth in total wireless revenues to prove it.

“I am particularly pleased with the customer response to the iPhone 3G,” AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson said in a statement. “The new customers we’re winning are high-value, with attractive revenue and churn profiles. We’re expanding the market, as users adopt more data and media-rich services and access a wide array of applications. These achievements are positive for the future of our business.”

Certainly the decline in Apple’s share price, which has been halved since the beginning of the year, would seem to point to the latter. But other metrics suggest the company will still turn in a strong performance, even amid the current macroeconomic travesty. According to the latest PC vendor shipment numbers from Gartner (IT), Apple showed nearly 30 percent year-over-year growth in the third quarter, its market share rising to 9.5 percent from 7.7 percent. In the United States Apple’s share of the laptop market grew by 60 percent, year over year, rising from 6.6 percent to 10.6 percent in the second quarter of this year. Meanwhile, its share of the operating system market rose nearly four-tenths of a percentage point in September. Given those metrics and the fact that the quarter that ended Sept. 30 is the first in which the impact of the iPhone 3G will register on Apple’s income statement, it seems reasonable to expect a strong showing from the company come Tuesday. “The upshot is that even against a very bleak macroeconomic backdrop,” said Yair Reiner, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Company, “Apple should be able to continue growing.”