“Now we aren’t typically the carrier that comes out and announces what we are going to be selling 12 months from now. Other carriers do that, and the media loves to speculate on what we are bringing to market. But what I will tell you is that over the next six months or so you will see devices like the Palm Pre and the cousin on our network from Palm.”

– Verizon Wireless President and CEO Lowell McAdam

For Palm, 2010 will be a year of channel expansion, with its new webOS handsets coming to more carriers. Top among them, Verizon (VZ), which has been rumored to be getting a device “like the Palm Pre” since Palm (PALM) launched it. In a research note to investors today, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu says a Palm smartphone on Verizon is pretty much inevitable.

“Based on our checks with industry and supply chain sources, we have fairly high conviction in Verizon carrying Palm’s webOS-based smart phones sometime in 2010 (potentially as early as 1H),” Wu writes.

“The reason,” Wu explains, “is three-fold: 1) despite heavy promotion and favorable reviews, sales of Android 2.0 smart phones (MOT Droid and HTC Droid Eris) have been somewhat disappointing and below expectations; 2) strong indications point to Palm’s launch exclusive with Sprint ending in 2009; and 3) our checks show high interest in webOS from Verizon including public comments by CEO Lowell McAdam.”

Interesting, especially the comment about Droid sales. If Wu is right, the device may not prove as daunting a competitive challenge as you would think.

“It’s too early to declare game over,” Wu says. “Talking with investors, most have written off Palm as a legitimate competitor and assumed Android will be the platform of choice at Verizon and other carriers. We believe Palm still has sizable advantages with its multitouch capability and vertical integration.”

Shares in the handset maker fell some 23 percent last week amid concerns about increased competition from Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system, which is being rolled out on a number of devices at a variety of carriers, including Palm partner Sprint (S).

This morning, analysts at Citigroup (C) cut their recommendations to sell from hold on Palm (PALM) while simultaneously raising their rating on Motorola (MOT) because of its “compelling” new Android handset, Droid.

“Motorola is launching of one of the most compelling offerings at [a] time when many investors have given up on the company’s handsets,” Citigroup analyst Jim Suva wrote in a research note.

“The revolution of product and application service offerings,” Suva added, “is going to start to crack open the enterprise door and could pose a risk for BlackBerry. Major shifts in promotion support creating a promotion commotion in the months ahead favor Motorola and post a challenge for RIMM and PALM.”

Over at CL King, analyst Lawrence Harris is similarly dubious of Palm’s prospects in the months ahead. Noting that Sprint executive David Owens said last week that the carrier plans to peddle a number of new Android devices from HTC next year, Harris sees unfavorable implications for Palm.

“Historically, Sprint has been Palm’s largest customer. Indeed, in the August quarter Sprint accounted for 85 percent of Palm’s revenues,” Harris wrote in a note to investors. “In FY09 (May) Sprint represented 43 percent of total Palm sales. Sprint has a U.S. exclusive on both the Pre and the Pixi through calendar year end. The Pixi will be launched at Sprint on November 15 for $99.99. The Pixi is fairly similar to the $149.99 Pre. Verizon has stated that it will begin offering the Pre in early CY10.”

Expounding on his analysis, Harris notes that “According to a report on Mobile Today, a U.K.-based publication, initial sales of the Pre through Telefonica’s O2 unit in the U.K. have been slow. If this report is correct, than the bulk of Palm’s sales over the next few months will probably continue to be generated through Sprint.”

That Sprint will soon add some slick new Android handsets to its lineup is worrisome, then, indeed. For Palm, it seems, driving conditions on the road to recovery are looking increasingly hazardous.

Consensus seems to be that the Droid is the device that will get Motorola back into the game. Indeed, Technology Business Research’s Ken Hyers says the Droid is likely a “serious challenger to the iPhone.”

Over at RBC Capital Markets, Mark Sue says good things as well. “The Droids are coming and Motorola will be an important part of Verizon’s push for smartphone differentiation,” he wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “In addition to compelling products, Motorola seems to have gotten back into the good graces of the North American carrier federation, which should aggressively push the new devices.”

Of course, these endorsements don’t necessarily mean that Motorola is poised to return to its past glory. And they certainly don’t guarantee the Christmas turnaround the company is clearly hoping for. After all, the smart-phone market is far more competitive now than it was when Motorola last dominated it back in 2004.

Said Morningstar analyst Joseph Beaulieu: “[I’m not sure the Droid] will be good enough to cut through the noise that you’re getting from Apple iPhone, HTC’s Hero, Research In Motion’s BlackBerry and even Palm’s Pre and upcoming Pixi.”

That’s the argument put forth by Piper Jaffray analyst Chris Larsen in a research note to investors Monday. Larsen feels that the cost to Apple (AAPL) of developing a CDMA version of the iPhone for Verizon’s (VZ) network and the subsidies the company might lose by ending its exclusivity deal with AT&T (T) would be a small price to pay for the spike in iPhone sales they would create.

“Although the iPhone is a strong player in the smartphone market, expanding its multi-vendor strategy could allow it to dominate the industry, as it does with the iPod,” Larsen writes. “The U.S. market is the world’s largest smartphone market, but we believe there is a land grab in the U.S. for smartphone share.”

Expanding his argument, Larson adds, “Apple’s exclusivity with AT&T has left the door open for strong competition from competitors, such as Research In Motion’s Blackberries, Palm’s webOS smartphones and Google’s Android operating system on multiple smartphones from OEMs such as Motorola, HTC, Samsung, LG, and others. Making the iPhone available to the other 150+ million subscribers (~2/3s of subscribers) not on AT&T’s network could result in iPod like adoption.”

Keeping the iPhone exclusive–while it might enable Apple to do more innovative things, as COO Tim Cook noted yesterday during the company’s quarterly earnings call–would also give those rival devices and platforms more time to catch up. If Apple really hopes to keep its lead in the U.S. market, it must do away with exclusivity deals, the same way it’s doing away with them abroad.

That’s bad news for AT&T. Because, as I’ve noted here before, a move to nonexclusivity in the U.S. would brutalize the carrier’s subscriber base. Analysts have long said that a material number of AT&T iPhone users would flock to Verizon’s superior network given the chance.

Larsen agrees. “A move to non-exclusivity in the U.S. could have a material impact on the U.S. wireless carriers,” he writes. “AT&T could lose meaningful smartphone share, while we think all the other carriers would gain share. We believe Verizon would be the largest beneficiary of non-exclusivity and the development of a CDMA iPhone.”

Continuing, Larson explains, “With 35% of AT&T’s iPhone sales coming from new customers, we feel it is reasonable to assume the company’s total iPhone sales could decline by 30% or more and that Verizon could pick up the bulk of this lost share (why switch to AT&T for iPhone if you haven’t left by now and the device is now available through your carrier; Verizon’s network quality could be a reason to switch from AT&T).”

In the consumer market, Apple (AAPL) scored 811 points out of a possible 1000, exceeding the industry average of 765. Its closest rival, LG–the only other company to beat that average, scored 776.

Apple’s performance in the enterprise market was equally impressive. The company scored 803 points out of a possible 1000. That was 79 points more than RIM, whose BlackBerry took second place with a score of 724 points, the industry average.

And what of Palm (PALM) devices and smart phones running Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows Mobile OS? Neither had a particularly remarkable showing. Among consumer smart phone users, Palm devices scored 731, while WinMo devices from Samsung and HTC both scored 739. And among business users, Palm devices scored 688, while WinMo devices from Samsung and HTC scored 697 and 692, respectively. The study, it should be noted, was fielded between January and June 2009, so it does not account for Palm’s new Pre handset. (See charts below; click to enlarge.)

Clearly, the iPhone has gained a fair bit of traction in enterprise in a relatively short time. Who was it again who said the iPhone “doesn’t appeal to business because it doesn’t have a keyboard”?

[Image credits: MacDailyNews, J.D. Power and Associates ]

If the medium was the message in yesterday’s zeitgeist, today’s “message transcends the medium” is a whole new mindset. It’s a brave new world out there, and AllthingsD didn’t fail to help make sense of it this week.

Boomtown was abuzz with the latest conversation from an Internet publishing sensation. Trip Adler, CEO of San Francisco-based Scribd, spoke to Kara about all things text and what its like to share a niche with giants. Speaking of giants, Boomtown was in Seattle this week, peering through everyone’s favorite Windows. While there, Kara caught wind of CEO Steve Ballmer’s embrace of the “new efficiency” by way of some executive belt-tightening. And in a followup to the near-viral “Louie Swisher loves Redbox” video, Kara wrote about a legal slap-fight between the DVD rental kiosk group and Fox.

While Fox was busy giving Redbox a black-eye, Digital Daily covered blows from a different kind of palm. It seems that Palm’s new mobile darling, the Pre, is a little over-abundant on store shelves. An 11 week-deep glut of the device may indicate tough times ahead for the smart-phone contender. If one plucky contender wasn’t enough, Digital Daily also covered IBM’s release of a LotusLive iNotes. This mail, calendar, and task management solution takes aim at a market currently in Google’s crosshairs. Finally, the week wouldn’t be complete with out a good Apple prognostication. John closed things out with some FCC documents that indicate a new wireless mouse and keyboard offering from the crew at 1 Infinite Loop. The logical jump is that the new input devices might be designed to complement a newly refreshed line of desktops.

John had new Macs and Peter had old tricks this week, specifically of the Kindle kind. In a settlement with the now-famous “1984 kid,” Amazon sealed up some of the holes in its policies about removing books from its Kindle devices. Now it’s most certainly against their policy to remove data…except when it isn’t. In a similar vein, more details surfaced about an upcoming e-publishing venture from Time that aims to put the content genie back in the bottle, Hulu style. The concept is to create a clearinghouse for magazines online and take back control of content and advertising dollars. Just in case we were beginning to think that there is always digital strength in numbers, Peter covered Comcast’s squashing of a rumor that it was looking to acquire a stake in NBC. Just the hint of such a move sent Comcast’s stock on a temporary tumble.

Walt was a personal technology machine this week with new additions to both the personal technology section and Mossberg’s Mailbox. And if that weren’t enough, Katie covered an important countertrend in personal tech that really turned some heads.

The personal tech feature of the week was the HTC Hero. This latest offering from the veteran Taiwan phone manufacturer features its most robust customization of the Android platform yet. Walt gave it high marks and placed it squarely among the Blackberry-Palm-Apple pantheon.

Walt checked the mailbox this week and answered some serious questions about the rise of the touchscreen laptop, the finer points of OS X and the iPhone OS, and tried to let a Vista Ultimate user down easy about the limited options for an easy upgrade to Windows 7.

Katie brought her A game to The Mossberg Solution with a succinct and poignant analysis of HP’s new growth model. The new Photosmart All-in-One with “Touch-Smart Web” bucks the current trend of photos and documents for digital display and tried to put consumers back in the printing game. The new printing experience uses a robust touchscreen and Web interface to allow printing of pics straight from the Web without a computer ever being involved. While she did have some good things to say about the printer’s apps and interface, HP’s overall strategy left her underwhelmed.

Whether you want to be the first to know when “that tablet” finally arrives or are just into the best coverage from the industry that is changing the world, there is no better homepage for all-things-tech than AllthingsD.

Interestingly, HTC recently said that its 2009 revenue would decline, after earlier forecasting a 10 percent increase. The reason for the fall? Delays in product launches.

Coincidence? Tough to say. One thing’s certain, though: If the Lancaster has been delayed or ends up being scrapped, it’s bad news for HTC, which will soon face increased competition from Motorola (MOT), Sony Ericsson and other handset vendors developing phones for Google’s (GOOG) Android.

“Android has fast been winning healthy support among operators, vendors and developers,” said Strategy Analytics director Neil Mawston. “A relatively low-cost licensing model, its semi-open-source structure and Google’s support for cloud services have encouraged companies such as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, T Mobile, Vodafone and others to support the Android operating system. Android is now in a good position to become a top-tier player in smartphones over the next two to three years.”

If that comes it pass, it’s bad news for Palm (PALM) whose Pre handset and WebOS will be facing off against a powerful mobile triumvirate: Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Google (GOOG).

Clearly, demand for the handset, the first based on Google’s Android operating system, is far greater than anyone had expected. Earlier this month G1 manufacturer HTC estimated that T-Mobile would sell between 400,000 and 500,000 G1 handsets before the end of 2008. That the company may have already sold three times that amount to customers willing to buy the device without any real hands-on experience suggests the G1 may manage to hold its own against Apple’s iPhone. Apple (AAPL), as you may recall, sold one million iPhone 3Gs during the first weekend the device was on sale.

iPhone is launching in one carrier in one country. We’re in about 100 countries and 300 carriers. … The momentum we are seeing in terms of product launches, carrier support in terms of product launches of BlackBerries, and subscriber additions is exceptional, and we believe it will continue on into the second half of the year.”

– Research in Motion Co-Chief Executive Officer Jim Balsillie, June 2007

Looks like somebody’s got a case of the Mondays–Research in Motion. Shares in the company slipped more than 6 percent to a new 52-week low today. This after charting a new 52-week low last Friday driven by the 27 percent drop RIM took after it issued a lower-than-expected forecast for the current period. That decline was the company’s steepest in eight years, belying CEO Jim Balsillie’s claims that emerging competition from new handset makers isn’t undermining its competitive position. And though RIM’s product roadmap is relatively strong heading into the fall season, the company still has its work cut out for it scrapping with Apple (AAPL) and its iPhone and now T-Mobile (DT) and the Android-based G1.

“RIM’s business model is starting to show its pressure points. The company has become increasingly dependent on hardware sales. As a result, the timing of new product launches can have a big impact on their results,” wrote Brian Modoff of Deutsche Bank in a report. “We think this trend will only worsen and their numbers are now, more than ever, dependent on a steady stream of hit products.”

Needham and Company analyst Craig Bisagna was even more dubious of prospects for Research in Motion (RIMM), criticizing the company for its foolishly dismissive attitude toward new rivals. Just because Windows Mobile handsets haven’t proven themselves worthy competitors to the Blackberry doesn’t mean the iPhone or the G1 won’t.

“We continue to believe that the company has its head in the sand,” Bisagna said in a note to clients. “It’s delusional to think [Apple and HTC] won’t cut into BlackBerry sales as well, especially in the consumer market.”

In design, the device seems to borrow quite a bit from T-Mobile’s Sidekick, and its touchscreen GUI owes a thing or two to Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone. Which makes perfect sense, since that’s the device it’s clearly intended to compete with. The G1 will run on both 3G and Wi-Fi and be tethered to the T-Mobile (DT) network. It will come preloaded with a version of Amazon’s MP3 store and Android Market, an application store similar to Apple’s App Store. And it will support and sync with the broad spectrum of Google (GOOG) apps–Google Talk, Google Calendar, etc. Its browser is something the dev team refers to as Chrome-Lite, a mobile version of Google’s new Webkit-based Chrome browser.

Oddly, the G1 has no built-in video player. Odder still, it has just 1GB of memory. T-Mobile has helpfully outfitted it with a 1GB/month bandwidth cap, though.

The G1 supports PDFs and Microsoft Office documents as well. Email will be handled through Gmail; there is no Exchange support, though presumably, engineers developing for Android Market will fill that void in short order.

Oh, the device offers copy-and-paste functionality. Hear that Apple?

It will arrive at market Oct. 22. Price: a highly-subsidized $179.