“The continued economic turmoil, and in particular the troubling unemployment rate, is undoubtedly impacting industry sales,” said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. “Our latest Economy Tracker indicated that although consumers’ general opinion about the economy is improving, their outlook on their own personal situation is worsening. If consumers’ personal outlook continues to erode, they could very well be much more conservative with their holiday shopping this year.”

A somber warning for the videogame industry. Even recent price cuts on game consoles have done little to spur demand.

“Year to date, the hardware category has experienced the sharpest decline in the industry, with unit sales down 10 percent compared to the same time period last year,” Frazier wrote. “Recent price cuts helped spur a one- to two-month increase in unit sales, and this month’s Wii sales reflect that boost, but the other platforms have not sustained the sales momentum after price reduction.”

The videogame industry may be recession-resistant, but it is clearly not recession-proof, as some once believed. Sales data, below.

U.S. Hardware Sales, October 2009

1. Wii 506.9K
2. Nintendo DS 457.6K
3. PlayStation 3 320.6K
4. Xbox 360 249.7K
5. PSP 174.6K
6. PlayStation 2 117.8K

U.S. Top Ten Software Sales, October 2009

1. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3, Sony) 537,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) 441,000
3. Borderlands (360, Take 2) 418,000
4. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) 314,000
5. NBA 2K10 (360, Take 2) 311,000
6. Halo 3: ODST (360, Microsoft) 271,000
7. NBA 2K10 (PS3, Take 2) 213,000
8. Forza Motorsport 3 (360, Microsoft) 175,000
9. Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS, Square Enix) 169,000
10. FIFA Soccer 10 (360, Electronic Arts) 156,000

As a result, Nintendo’s operating profit fell 52 percent to 64 billion yen, missing the company’s own forecast of 100 billion yen, as well as estimates of analysts, who were expecting 90 billion.

That shortfall prompted Nintendo to cut projections on Wii sales for the year to 20 million from 26 million. Thursday, the company also slashed its profit forecast for the year by almost a quarter to $2.6 billion. That’s 18 percent less than last year and nearly 25 percent less than the 300 billion yen it had earlier projected.

This despite a recent Wii price cut intended to drive sales of the device. Clearly, something more is needed here. Said Barclays analyst Mia Nagasaka: “Nintendo needs to build up a sales-promotion scheme or introduce a new product to drive its earnings.”

That’s what ngmoco co-founder and Electronic Arts (ERTS) alum Neil Young said of Apple’s iconic handset at the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco earlier this year, and it’s worth reflecting on a bit in light of a new report from Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi that claims the iPhone OS will soon create pricing and customer migration pressure for traditional gaming platforms.

Noting that some 665-760 million games may have been downloaded from the Apple (AAPL) App Store during the last 12 months, Sacconaghi estimates that the installed base for the iPhone and iPod touch platform could amount to about one third of the total handheld gaming installed base by 2012.

“We believe that gaming embodies the power of Apple’s App store: it has dramatically lowered the entry barriers for both developers and gamers alike, resulting in an unparalleled number of available games at affordable prices, which is creating lock-in and enhanced interest in Apple’s high-margin iPhone (and iPod Touch) platforms,” Sacconaghi writes.

Continuing, the analyst adds: “By most measures, gaming has been the killer App Store category, accounting for an estimated 40% of all downloads. Most importantly, we believe that gaming is providing yet another incremental, differentiated reason for consumers to purchase iPhones and iPod Touches, and creates powerful lock-in to the App Store platform and Apple products on a go forward basis.”

The upshot of all this is bad news for traditional gaming console developers–particularly those who have dismissed it as a novelty. “Most gaming developers today view the iPhone and other smart phones as an incremental opportunity, which targets the casual gamer but not the dedicating gaming enthusiast,” Sacconaghi explains. “Over time, however, we believe that the combination of evolutionary improvements in iPhone/iPod gaming functionality, the convenience of the App Store download model, the App’s Store leading title selection and lower price points could cause some migration among gaming enthusiasts to the Apple platform and/or pressure traditional gaming incumbents’ hardware and software pricing.”

And this is clearly what Apple (AAPL) is aiming for. Consider these recent remarks from Phil Schiller, the company’s senior vice president of worldwide product marketing: “People are starting to see what a great gaming device this is. When you think about the companies that came before us…when you played those other systems, they seemed so cool, but now when you look at them, they don’t stack up against the iPod touch….No Multi-Touch user experience, Games are expensive, No App Store, No iPod, Expensive Games ($25-$40) and uncomfortable retail buying experience. [There are] 607 games for PSP and 3,680 games for Nintendo DS. [But there are ] 21,178 Game and Entertainment Titles at App Store.”

In fact, it could be argued that public confirmation of Jobs’s health since his return to the company was truly the most significant announcement of the day. As Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt quipped in a research note issued after the event, “Aside from a lack of a camera on the iPod Touch, everything announced was generally in line with expectations, although it all tends to sound much more revolutionary when Steve Jobs is spinning the story. It was clearly a positive to see him back on stage.”

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster felt similarly: “There was some debate over whether Steve Jobs would deliver the presentation at [the] event,” he said in a note to clients. “He did, and we see this as a sign that he has returned to work at near-full capacity following his health-related leave of absence. We continue to believe he is the primary spokesman and active leader of Apple.”

Munster went on to note that the event was otherwise a bit of a disappointment. Certainly, the lack of a new iPod touch with a built-in video camera, which was viewed by many as almost a sure thing, was a bit of a letdown.

“We were expecting a new iPod touch model with a video camera, which Apple did not announce,” Munster said. “The lack of a camera may be due to last-minute quality issues, or it may also be a strategic decision to differentiate the nano from the touch, and the touch from the iPhone. Ultimately we see the lack of a camera in the touch as a move to push users toward the iPhone and drive purchases of multiple devices per customer by segmenting the product lines.”

Or to position the iPod touch as a truly competitive portable gaming device. Certainly, that’s what appeared to be going on yesterday as Apple (AAPL) brought out Ubisoft, Tapulous, Gameloft, and Electronic Arts (ERTS) in quick succession to demo their upcoming new games. And then, there were the data points. Consider these:

• 20 million iPod touches sold to date
• Over 100 million iTunes accounts
• Over 1.8 billion apps downloaded to date. Impressive given that Apple passed one billion apps downloaded just last April
• Over 75,000 apps available
• 21,000 of those 75,000 are games and entertainment apps

So nearly one third of all iPhone OS apps sold to date are games and entertainment apps. Clearly, Jobs was on to something when he told The Wall Street Journal in November 2008, “I think the iPhone and iPod touch may emerge as really viable devices in the mobile games market.”

Apple has sold some 225 million iPods to date, making it one of the most popular electronic devices ever. And it’s sure to sell even more after the updates the company announced at this morning’s event. Among them: Larger, cheaper iPod touches and nanos with cameras and FM radios.

Following introductory remarks by Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs, Phil Schiller offers details, noting that “the iPod has 73.8 percent market share. The next biggest category is ‘other,’ and after that, SanDisk and then Microsoft pulling up the rear.”

Schiller adds that Apple has sold 20 million iPod touches since the device debuted. He runs through a lengthy sales pitch for the iPod touch, touting it as a killer pocket computer and taking potshots at rivals like Dell (DELL) along the way.

Moving on to games, Schiller notes the discrepancy between the number of games on gaming platforms like the Nintendo DS and the iPod touch. The iPhone OS, he notes, has 21,178 games. The DS has just 3,680. Point taken.

Moving on to some new game demos now. First up: Ubisoft with Assassin’s Creed 2, which, we are told, is “all about visceral combat, brutal hand-to-hand combat and one-shot kills.” Behind the presenter, a warrior is mercilessly beaten into submission.

Schiller returns to the stage, “Boy, that looks like fun.”

Tapulous, the developer of Tap Tap Revenge, and Gameloft, follow, both introducing new games. Gameloft’s Nova–a first-person shooter with multiplayer option–seems a far more compelling effort than Tapulous’s Riddim Ribbon, which appears to be a Black Eyed Peas-heavy variation of Tap-Tap.

Up next, Electronic Arts, which is apparently headlining the games section of today’s event. EA’s Travis Boatman takes the stage to introduce Madden NFL 10. The game boasts both custom-kick and draw-a-play-on-screen features developed specifically for the iPhone OS. Madden NFL 10 is available today.

Schiller again returns to the stage. “The iPod touch is the most affordable gateway to the App Store,” he says, adding that $199 is a “magic price point” in the iPod market.

With that, he announces the iPod touch price cuts we heard about earlier this morning: An 8GB model for $199, 32GB for $299, and 64GB for $399. All three devices are significantly faster, says Schiller. Interestingly, none seem to feature that rumored camera.

Price drops as well for the nano, but we knew about these. Apple has dropped the price of the iPod shuffle as well: $59 and $79. And the company is offering them in a new selection of colors. Plus, there’s a special edition of the shuffle crafted from stainless steel.

Steve Jobs returns to the stage. So those are the iPods, but there is one more thing: A video camera. He talks about the exploding video market, mentions the Flip, etc. “We want to get in on this market as well and we’re doing it for free….Boy, this really is the new Apple,” he quips.

Yes, the iPod nano does indeed now feature a video camera. The video quality looks impressive. Whoa: Apple has also added FM radio, a voice recorder and a pedometer to the nano. New polished anodized aluminum colors. 8GB model for $149, 16GB model for $179.

After a few concluding remarks about the new iPod lineup, Jobs announces what has become an annual tradition at these events: A live performance. Today’s artist: Norah Jones.

The end of her set concludes today’s event. No iPlatform. No Beatles on iTunes. But lots of product refreshes, software intros, and price cuts. Plus: Steve Jobs is definitely back.

Live from Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event

• iPod Updates, Games, Nano Video Cameras
• iTunes 9, iTunes LP, Home Sharing, Genius Mixes
• Steve Jobs: “I’m Vertical, Back at Apple and Loving Every Day of It”
• Event Photos by Adam Tow

“The human imagination is an amazing thing. As children, we spend much of our time in imaginary worlds, substituting toys and make-believe for the real surroundings that we are just beginning to explore and understand. As we play, we learn. And as we grow, our play gets more complicated. We add rules and goals. The result is something we call games.”

– Will Wright, Wired, April 2006

Celebrated game designer Will Wright has a new job: doing whatever he damn well pleases. He’s leaving Electronic Arts (ERTS), the game publisher for which he developed Spore and the wildly successful Sim City and The Sims franchises, to run Stupid Fun Club, an entertainment think tank developing ideas for everything from toys to TV. “The entertainment industry is moving rapidly into an era of revolutionary change,” Wright said in a statement. “Stupid Fun Club will explore new possibilities that are emerging from this sublime chaos and create new forms of entertainment on a variety of platforms.”

Wright and EA each own equal percentages of Stupid Fun Club, and the company has first right of refusal for game concepts that arise from the venture, so this isn’t quite the blow to EA it might at first seem. In fact, it may turn out to be a boon. With the novelty of EA franchises like Madden NFL, Need for Speed and the Sims fading and sales declining, the company desperately needs some big, new, innovative ideas. And who better than Wright to fish them out? Certainly, there must be far better games than Need for Speed XXX waiting to be developed in that “sublime chaos” Wright hopes to explore.

BoomTown posted from various spots in Europe this week, yet managed to follow the geek-tastic goodness of Silicon Valley’s own contender, Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Wozniak, who competed while injured this week on “Dancing With the Stars”–and escaped elimination via the love of viewers in Silicon Valley and elsewhere. Another founder made the headlines this week–BoomTown noted that Steve Case appeared at a huge pep rally at Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL. Case and former AOL exec Ted Leonsis gave their support (and a lucky green tie) to new CEO Tim Armstrong. Elsewhere, Pure Digital, the maker of BoomTown’s favorite gadget–the ever-present Flip digital video camera–sold itself to Cisco (CSCO) for $590 million in stock, and BoomTown urged Silicon Valley to remember it’s not immune to the recession, to put its nose to the grindstone and to avoid party-hearty inanity.

Guess no one’s taking heed of the warning, though: MediaMemo reports that no one’s getting anything done at work–CBS (CBS) says its March Madness Web traffic is up 57 percent compared to last year. On top of that, television viewership rose various percentages throughout the week. MM wasn’t watching much basketball this week, though–there was plenty to blog about: The New York Times (NYT) cracked down on unauthorized use of its photos; Discovery Communications (DISCA) announced a patent infringement suit against Amazon and its Kindle Reader; Palm (PALM) delivered dismal third quarter results, putting even greater pressure on the success of the Pre; and in a Q&A with BusinessWeek editor Stephen Adler, Steve Ballmer said he’s open to a phone call from Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Carol Bartz whenever she’s ready to talk. Oh, and in case you were wondering what happened at SXSW, MediaMemo got a Google (GOOG) guy to explain it.

Digital Daily’s March Madness started with a liveblog of Apple’s St. Patrick’s Day press event to unveil version 3.0 of its iPhone OS, a chronicle of the myriad features displayed onstage and a live photoblog to back it up. DD noted that sales of the iPod touch and iPhone have outstripped RIM’s (RIMM) combined BlackBerry sales by a factor of… well, by a LOT. Kind of supports the data that say mobile Web use doubled over the last year. Which is good, because Mac sales were no good in February.

In Personal Technology, Walt Mossberg reviewed the latest release of Microsoft IE8 (MSFT), its most comprehensive release in many years. His verdict? Mixed, of course. In Mossberg’s Mailbox, Walt talked to readers about the many models of BlackBerry phones and how they differ from one another, the new iPod shuffle and its earphone compatibility and upgrading Vista to Windows 7. In the Mossberg Solution, Katie Boehret reviewed the Ee Top, Asus’s first foray into the all-in-one PC market.

More next week. Go Woz!

There are some customers which we chose not to serve. We don’t know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that. But we can continue to deliver greater and greater value to those customers that we choose to serve. And there’s a lot of them. We’ve seen great success by focusing on certain segments of the market and not trying to be everything to everybody. So I think you can expect us to stick with that winning strategy and continue to try to add more and more value to those products in those customer bases we choose to serve.”

– Apple CEO Steve Jobs, Oct. 2008

Perhaps Macworld Expo 2009 will have its “one more thing” after all.

In a note to clients this morning, Ezra Gottheil of Technology Business Research speculates that Apple (AAPL) will indeed launch a new product category at Macworld in early January. A netbook designed to leverage Apple’s design prowess and its online delivery system as well. “[The device] will provide Web access, email, media playing, and essential applications at a single low price,” Gottheil writes. “Computer beginners will be able to start using it quickly and easily. Users will have fewer questions, problems, conflicts and security breaches, as the device will be less intimidating than both PCs and Macs. As with the iPhone, iTunes and the App Store will offer an array of content, applications and games. As with the iPhone, the software can be rebuilt from the App Store. With an optional online backup service, the entire device can be restored…. Because all applications are delivered through the iTunes App Store, Apple will maintain sustained relationships with users, making it easier to upsell and cross-sell to existing customers. TBR believes Apple will make online services like MobileMe increasingly attractive to all customers, but purchasers of the new Apple device may find its simplicity especially appealing.”

Now, I know Gottheil’s the guy who said “Apple doesn’t need Jobs anymore”–blasphemy! But the scenario he lays out above makes quite a bit of sense, doesn’t it?

If such a device is indeed uncrated at Macworld, Gottheil expects it will arrive at market around midyear at prices beginning at $599–$99 more than the $500 computer Apple CEO Steve Jobs claims the company doesn’t know how to make….

10,000 apps. An impressively broad ecosystem for just under five months of development. Apple’s (AAPL) year-end list of Top App Store Downloads for 2008, then, is both handy and timely (Click on the image below to see the top 10 paid and free apps). It’s largely what you’d expect, with the Games and Entertainment categories proving most popular, Facebook and Pandora dominating the Free App category, and Texas Hold ‘Em and Moto Chaser topping the Paid App category. Fascinating to see the breadth on display here. Were you to purchase every app currently for sale at the store, it would set you back in excess of $30,000.

Incidentally, June, as Todd Bishop notes over at The Seattle Post Intelligencer, happens to be the last month in Microsoft’s fiscal year, which means it’s also the end of the period in which Microsoft executive bonuses are calculated.