Headless Story Found in Rumor-Filled Bar?

[Image Credit: New York Post]

If the [iTunes music store] was forced to absorb any increase in the … royalty rate, the result would be to significantly increase the likelihood of the store operating at a financial loss–which is no alternative at all. Apple has repeatedly made it clear that it is in this business to make money, and most likely would not continue to operate [the iTunes music store] if it were no longer possible to do so profitably.”

– iTunes vice president Eddy Cue

Not that it would ever have happened anyway, but Apple (AAPL) will not be shutting down the iTunes Store in protest over increased royalty rates paid to songwriters and publishers for CDs and digital music downloads. The Copyright Royalty Board Thursday left the rate for royalties unchanged at nine cents a track, paying no mind to a proposal by the National Music Publishers’ Association that would have raised it to 15 cents–a 66 percent hike.

Seems Apple’s posturing paid off. Said Apple spokesman Tom Neumayr, “We’re pleased with the CRB’s decision to keep royalty rates stable.”

This morning the company announced slotMusic, a compact memory card-based music format that can be played on cellphones, PCs and some MP3 players. It relies on MP3s without digital rights management schemes and is backed by Universal Music Group, Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Warner Music Group and EMI Group, all of which apparently believe that more physical media is the best way to reinvent their business model in the era of digital distribution. Though as SanDisk VP Daniel Schreiber notes, they do have their reasons. “There’s a billion phones out there and a lot of them can play music and a lot of them have a microSD slot,” he explained. “We think there’s still a need for a tangible, physical product. People will appreciate walking out of the store playing music on their phones.”

Perhaps. But will they appreciate carrying that music around on a 0.6″ x 0.4″ medium that’s about the size of a fingernail? Seems easy to lose, doesn’t it (maybe Case Logic is planning a slotMusic binder)? And wouldn’t they rather carry around hundreds of songs, instead of the dozen or so stored on each slotMusic card? And what if the memory card in their phone is already in use, filled up with contacts, applications and other data? What then? And beyond this, haven’t iTunes and Amazon MP3 made consumers more accustomed to purchasing music à la carte? Why purchase a full album at $15, when all you really want are the only two good songs on it?

Opportunities, yes. Like debuting Metallica’s next album, “Death Magnetic” as a “Guitar Hero III” download. But opportunities large enough to unseat an entrenched rival like iTunes? A rival that has sold more than 4 billion songs and accounts for approximately 70 percent of digital music sold worldwide? A rival that in the next five years, may well account for a staggering 28 percent of all music sold worldwide?

It was an astonishing offer at the time, especially coming from Glaser, who had been a vocal critic of Apple and its decision to make digital music sold through its iTunes store playable only on iPod (”I bought an iPod and can only shop at one store,” Glaser once said. “What is this? The Soviet Union?”)

But it was an offer that Jobs found unappealing. The Apple CEO rebuffed Glaser, declining even to meet with him over lunch to discuss it.

Glaser, of course, took it poorly and spent the next few years slagging Apple and Jobs for declining the partnership. “We think Apple Computer, and Steve personally, are making a mistake by making the software proprietary,” Glaser said at the Digital Living Conference in 2005. “There’s no reason we should penalize Apple customers for Steve’s pigheadeness.”

Course, in the end Real didn’t penalize Apple’s customers. Apple’s customers penalized Real. And today Apple’s iTunes is the largest music retailer in the states. And Real? Well, Real’s “embracing” the iPod.

Funny how that worked out.

This morning the company announced a new MP3 store whose unprotected music files can be played anywhere–even on an iPod. Like Apple’s iTunes, the Rhapsody MP3 Store offers music from all four major music labels at 99 cents per track, or $9.99 for an album. Over five million songs will be made available, at 256k-bit rates. Visitors can preview them in their entirety instead of the 30-second samples offered by iTunes and the like. And, if they’re Verizon (VZ) subscribers, they can download music directly to their phones with the company’s V CAST Music with Rhapsody service.

“We’re no longer competing with the iPod,” said Rhapsody Vice President Neil Smith. “We’re embracing it.”

Pigheadeness, be damned.

Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes Store has become the No. 2 music retailer in the states, according to a new study by the NPD Group. It’s second only to Wal-Mart and, if things keep going the way they are, Apple will soon surpass it. “Digital sales were up close to 50% and CD sales were down 20% last year,” said Russ Crupnick, the NPD Group’s president of music. “Even at half that growth rate in digital sales, Apple will in all likelihood catch Wal-Mart this year.”

One last point worth noting here: While 1 million consumers dropped out of the CD-buyer market in 2007, 29 million acquired digital music legally. That’s an increase of 5 million over the previous year. Growth here was largely driven by the 36-to-50 age group. “The continued growth in legal download sites is encouraging, yet the industry struggles to improve the value of each digital customer,” said Crupnick. “With so many baby boomers and Gen Xers entering the market, there are certainly opportunities to sell more digital albums, promote older catalog titles, or create bundles that will raise revenues. In the near term that’s going to be the best means available to narrow the gap on dwindling CD revenues.”