Consider these metrics:

Of the teens Piper Jaffray surveyed,

• 15 percent own iPhones (up from eight percent six months ago)
• 22 percent plan to buy an iPhone in the next six months
• 87 percent own iPods (up from 86 percent six months ago)
• 93 percent of the 40 percent who legally purchase music online use iTunes

Music to Apple’s (AAPL) ears, right? “Apple’s dominance in the CE and online music markets is going seemingly unchecked, capped by market saturation for iPod and iTunes usage,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster writes in his analysis.

“Also, interest in the iPhone remains high…We believe the $99 iPhone 3G has been a meaningful part of share gains in the last six months. Previously, teens were indicating that the plan pricing and handset pricing were too high for them (and their parents) to buy iPhones. The lower pricing appears to have been a catalyst for share gains. Also, the popularity of the App Store and the quality of games available for the iPhone have likely led to the gains among the teen demographic in recent months.”

Munster’s conclusion: “Apple is taking its leading position in music and mobile markets.”

The short, and obvious, answer to that question is “a hell of a lot.” In a note to clients today, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi argues that Wal-Mart (WMT) can sell between 800,000 and 1.3 million iPhones in 2009, though the retailer’s low price mantra may appear inconsistent with the iPhone’s market positioning. And that would seem to be a reasonable estimate. After all, Wal-Mart has some 2,500 retail outlets in the states, through which 100 million customers stream each week.

“The addition of Wal-Mart will roughly double the iPhone’s distribution in the US to nearly 6,000 outlets,” Sacconaghi writes. “We believe iPhone sales will benefit from the added distribution, though not proportionately; in our view, price (for both the device and service plan) is still the biggest hurdle to mass adoption…. With the iPhone already available at 3,000 Apple, AT&T (T), and Best Buy (BBY) stores, Wal-Mart likely does little to expand the device’s geographic reach. However, we believe Wal-Mart will have a greater impact on the iPhone’s demographic reach in terms of raising awareness and availability among lower-end consumers who are less likely to shop at the Apple Stores or BestBuy.”

One last point worth noting here, Sacconaghi puts little faith in rumors that Wal-Mart will offer a $99 4GB iPhone. “Could there be a cheaper iPhone at Wal-Mart,” he writes. “We think it unlikely, at least initially, but the idea is not completely unfounded. In our view, a $99 price point for the iPhone seems too low, but some modest discount is not implausible.”

Would something added to AOL, or AOL added to something else, make it stronger and more valuable? We can’t rule it out and we wouldn’t. It’s our obligation to make sure AOL gets into whatever configuration that makes it the strongest and most valuable.”

–Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes

Google (GOOG) won’t be acquiring Bebo any time soon. Unless it’s willing to buy Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL first. This morning AOL announced plans to acquire the social-networking site. Price tag: $850 million–cash.

It’s a sizable and unexpected deal for AOL (talk about unlikely buyers …), which has itself been rumored to be an acquisition target. Bebo, which claims a global membership of about 40 million users, will expand AOL’s world-wide reach to some 80 million unique users–many of them in the 13-to-24 demographic. And if AOL is lucky, it will jump-start its sluggish advertising business.

“This is a tremendous acquisition and one I think is game-changing for AOL–it puts us squarely as a leader in social media,” AOL chairman and CEO Randy Falco said during a press conference this morning. “Bebo will be the cornerstone of our strategy to transform the online experience for advertisers, media companies and consumers. Bebo is the best social media asset out there. It’s a true pioneer in the space, has the most engaged audience on the Web and has seen tremendous growth since its founding less than three years ago. When you combine Bebo’s worldwide users with those who use AIM and ICQ, we reach around 80 million. … We will be a social media powerhouse.”

What does this mean for the Microsoft (MSFT)/Yahoo (YHOO)/AOL love triangle?

This morning the company announced plans to retool itself as a search engine for housewives. Seems Ask.com believes its core demographic is married women living in the American South and Midwest looking for information about health, hobbies, family matters, children’s homework, recipes and entertainment–i.e., married women who already use Google.

“If we can do a better job of understanding who these customers are and answering their questions, we will grow,” newly installed CEO Jim Safka told Reuters. “What this means is everything we do will be put through this strategic filter.”

“It is taking away from offline activities, among them having sex, socializing face-to-face, watching TV and reading newspapers and magazines. It cuts into that share,” said Ann Mack, director of trend-spotting at JWT. “I don’t suppose their partners are too pleased about it.”

Unless of course, their partners fall into the same marketing demographic for which JWT has concocted ]]> http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20070920/digitivity-denizen/feed/ 0