“iDon’t have a real keyboard
iDon’t run simultaneous apps
iDon’t take night shots
iDon’t allow open development
iDon’t customize
iDon’t run widgets
iDon’t have interchangeable batteries
Everything iDon’t
DROID DOES”

Shown on Fox and CBS (CBS) during a pair of NFL football games Sunday afternoon, the ad clearly positions Droid as the mythical iPhone killer. And while that might seem foolhardy, perhaps even hubristic, those who’ve seen the Motorola (MOT)-designed device say it’s at the very least a worthy iPhone rival.

Says Boy Genius: “[This is] the Android device to beat, and easily the most impressive. From what we’ve been told, Google had a direct hand in the Motorola Droid. Something to the point of almost dictating every move Motorola made when designing and making the phone….the Droid, even in its non-final form, is the most impressive phone we’ve used since the iPhone. It’s positively amazing.”

A gushing endorsement of an unreleased device and as such, to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, it’s hard to believe Verizon (VZ) would go all out here without good reason. And make no mistake, the company is going all out, even to the point of licensing the “Droid” trademark from Lucasfilm.

This past weekend’s TV commercial and a Droid teaser site are clearly the beginning of a major marketing push intended to position Droid as the Apple (AAPL) iPhone’s better, or at least its equal. Little wonder then that Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt was so upbeat about Android’s future during the search engine company’s earnings call last week.

“Android adoption is literally about to explode,” Schmidt said. “You have all the necessary conditions, you have the vendors, you have the distribution and so forth. This is a very critical period with all of everything being delivered.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Verizon to iPhone Users: “Want Five Times More 3G Coverage? There’s a Map for That.”
• Perhaps by “Devices Like the Pre,” Verizon CEO Meant the iPhone?
• Analyst: AT&T Screwed Without iPhone Exclusivity
• Q: Should Apple Bring the iPhone to Verizon? A: Yes.
• Apple, Verizon and the iPhone LiTE

I’m not so sure that the whole issue really is one of commercial avoidance. It really is a matter of convenience–so you don’t miss your favorite show. And quite frankly, we’re just training a new generation of viewers to skip commercials because they can. I’m not sure that the driving reason to get a DVR in the first place is just to skip commercials. I don’t fundamentally believe that. People can understand in order to have convenience and on-demand [options], that you can’t skip commercials.”

–ABC President of Advertising Sales Mike Shaw, July 2006

Leave it to ABC to devise a service that offers all the convenience of video-on-demand with all the annoyance and vapidity of broadcast TV in one joyless package. This morning the network and its affiliates announced fast-forward-disabled video on demand, which prevents viewers from bypassing commercials.

Designed to combat the now nearly ubiquitous DVR, the service offers viewers the chance to watch ABC shows like “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives” for free, at any time they choose, as long as they’re willing to suffer through the advertisements that accompany them. And just to make sure that they do, participating affiliates will disable their video-on-demand services’ fast-forwarding capability. “This does counter the DVR,” Anne Sweeney, the president of the Disney-ABC television group (DIS), told the New York Times. “You don’t need TiVo if you have fast-forward-disabled video on demand. It gives you the same opportunity to catch up to your favorite shows.”

And your not-so-favorite commercials. Which would seem to make it about as uncompelling a proposition as … well, as over-the-air broadcast TV. But ABC, which has been testing the service with Cox Communications in Orange County, Calif., insists it’s got an audience. The company says 93% of users it surveyed said they would be willing to give up the fast-forwarding option and watch the commercials if they were given VOD programming for free.

So perhaps the 30-second TV ad has a few more years left in it still. But only a few. According to a study by the Association of National Advertisers and Forrester Research, 62% of marketers believe TV advertising has become less effective in the past few years. And 87% said they plan to increase their online ad spending this year, while many said they will cut their TV ad buys substantially when DVR penetration tops 50%.

Among the more than 260 applicants included on the bidder list released last night by the FCC (accepted applications; incomplete applications) are AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Cox Communications, Google (bidding as Google Airwaves Inc.), MetroPCS, Qualcomm, National Datacast (the for-profit subsidiary of the Public Broadcasting Service), Alltel, Towerstream, Chevron and Frontier Wireless (EchoStar).

And then there’s zillionaire investor Paul Allen–Microsoft’s other founder (pictured above). Applications from Vulcan Spectrum LLC and Bend Cable Communications LLC, both Allen-backed ventures, have been accepted by the FCC. Seems Allen fancies himself the Pied Piper of the Wired World, and the Wireless World as well. Perhaps someday we’ll have the Paul Allen Brain Atlas, the Paul Allen Telescope Array and the Paul Allen Advanced Wireless Services Spectrum.

In the past few weeks, TiVo has signed deals with online photo-sharing services Photobucket and Picasa and the music-and-video network Music Choice. It’s begun fulfilling its contracts with cable outfits Comcast and Cox. It’s entered the media-services market, partnering with NBC Universal to provide second-by-second ratings of programs and commercials, based on the TV-watching habits of subscribers to the company’s digital video recorders.

“We are very much a technology company,” TiVo CEO Tom Rogers told the New York Times. “At the same time, in the last year and a half, we’ve substantially moved in the direction of becoming a media company.” And that’s proven a prudent move for TiVo, where things are beginning to look up. Shares of the company hit a 52-week high of $8.53 Friday. Today they were trading at around $8.35.

Too bad for TiVo that days of the standalone digital video recorder are reportedly numbered. According to Yankee Group, the standalone DVR product category will cease to exist by 2010, “and its dissolution will result in the end of TiVo as we know it.”

I’m not sure that the driving reason to get a DVR in the first place is just to skip commercials. I don’t fundamentally believe that. People can understand in order to have convenience and on-demand (options), that you can’t skip commercials.”

– ABC President of Advertising Sales Mike Shaw, July 2006

Looks like Walt Disney has finally come up with a theory to explain plummeting ratings at ABC and ESPN–as well as a plan to fix them. The company’s two big TV networks have struck a deal with Cox Communications to offer free on-demand broadcast of hit shows and sporting events, as long as Cox disables its fast-forward feature that lets viewers skip advertisements.

To Disney, the price of free entertainment is suffering through inescapable advertising, and its DVR-empowered viewership hasn’t been holding up its part of the deal. And so, beginning this fall, Cox will offer episodes of four ABC prime-time series, along with select ESPN on ABC college football games in the FreeZone section of its on-demand service. They will be available the day after their original broadcast, and Cox will disable its on-demand fast-forward option.

Will viewers accustomed to fast-forwarding through advertisements watch on-demand programming with unavoidable ads? And, more to the point, if they so clearly dislike watching advertisements, why would they watch programming like this at all? Why wouldn’t they use their DVRs to record the same shows as they air live and use that device’s fast-forward function to skip the ads? Cox President Pat Esser says viewers will understand the transaction it’s proposing. “People want their content, and they want it for free, but I think they realize that there is a business model to keep intact for them to get it that way,” he told The Wall Street Journal.

We’ll see, I guess. But I hope for Esser’s sake that Cox and other cable operators like it are investigating other ways of solving this problem. Like figuring out how to take advantage of the attention fast-forwarding requires. Because while DVR users often fast-forward through commercials, the very act of paying attention to what they’re forwarding through vastly increases ad recall. “There’s a pretty good basis for thinking that the active attention required to fast-forward could reinforce brand awareness,” said Kenneth Wilbur, associate professor of marketing at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “There can be a real effect on purchasing behavior due to the attention required. … You could see extensive changes coming to creative formats and a great deal of research into how creative can best be adapted to fast-forwarding.”