Indeed, Broadpoint AmTech analyst Mark McKechnie estimates Verizon (VZ) sold about 100,000 Droids in its first weekend. McKechnie believes the carrier had about 200,000 units on-hand at launch, and most stores he surveyed had sold at least half of their stock over the weekend.

That’s not nearly the one million iPhones Apple (AAPL) sold during the first weekend of its latest model debut, but it’s impressive nonetheless. Certainly, Motorola (MOT) hasn’t moved that many handsets in so short a period in a very long time–if ever.

“I see the first few days as encouraging,” McKechnie told Bloomberg. “There seems to be pretty good demand–they’ve taken the right steps and picked a good partner with Google on the Android side.”

Citigroup (C) analyst Jim Suva agreed, noting that Droid doesn’t require iPhone-like sales to be successful. Said Suva: “Although the press is stating the Droid launch was not as successful as the iPhone launch, we don’t believe investors expected an iPhone-like launch, but rather a first step in a cadence of products that will help bring Motorola’s handsets out of the death spiral experienced during the past three years.”

Then there was this from RBC’s Mark Sue, who declared that anyone expecting a launch reminiscent of the iPhone’s was expecting too much: “Motorola’s Droid landed at Verizon and while the new device is not the be all and end all for Motorola it’s an important beginning for a company that sorely missed out of a growing market,” he wrote. “There were no around-the-block lines of consumers waiting to get their hands on a Motorola Droid, yet investors shouldn’t expect them either. We’re looking for a steady ramp instead towards our estimate of approximately 1M units in 4Q09.”

Earlier this week, analysts at Citigroup (C) and CL King voiced their concerns about the company in the wake of another ugly quarter from carrier partner Sprint (S). Now Standard & Poor’s is doing so as well. In a note to investors today, analyst James Moorman whacked down his price target on the company’s shares to $10 from $12 and reiterated his “Strong Sell rating.

“We believe the upcoming holiday selling season will be very competitive for handset vendors and think Palm could see competitive pressures,” he wrote. “We believe the small price difference between the Pre handset (especially when on sale at third party vendors) and the new lower-end Pixie could limit Pixie sales and confuse consumers during the launch.”
 
Indeed. As I noted here last week the $99 price Sprint has set for the Pixi is identical to the Pre’s on Amazon (AMZN). And the Pre has a faster processor, a better screen, and Wi-Fi support as well.

Not the most desirable circumstances for heading into the holiday season.

Shares in the handset maker fell some 23 percent last week amid concerns about increased competition from Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system, which is being rolled out on a number of devices at a variety of carriers, including Palm partner Sprint (S).

This morning, analysts at Citigroup (C) cut their recommendations to sell from hold on Palm (PALM) while simultaneously raising their rating on Motorola (MOT) because of its “compelling” new Android handset, Droid.

“Motorola is launching of one of the most compelling offerings at [a] time when many investors have given up on the company’s handsets,” Citigroup analyst Jim Suva wrote in a research note.

“The revolution of product and application service offerings,” Suva added, “is going to start to crack open the enterprise door and could pose a risk for BlackBerry. Major shifts in promotion support creating a promotion commotion in the months ahead favor Motorola and post a challenge for RIMM and PALM.”

Over at CL King, analyst Lawrence Harris is similarly dubious of Palm’s prospects in the months ahead. Noting that Sprint executive David Owens said last week that the carrier plans to peddle a number of new Android devices from HTC next year, Harris sees unfavorable implications for Palm.

“Historically, Sprint has been Palm’s largest customer. Indeed, in the August quarter Sprint accounted for 85 percent of Palm’s revenues,” Harris wrote in a note to investors. “In FY09 (May) Sprint represented 43 percent of total Palm sales. Sprint has a U.S. exclusive on both the Pre and the Pixi through calendar year end. The Pixi will be launched at Sprint on November 15 for $99.99. The Pixi is fairly similar to the $149.99 Pre. Verizon has stated that it will begin offering the Pre in early CY10.”

Expounding on his analysis, Harris notes that “According to a report on Mobile Today, a U.K.-based publication, initial sales of the Pre through Telefonica’s O2 unit in the U.K. have been slow. If this report is correct, than the bulk of Palm’s sales over the next few months will probably continue to be generated through Sprint.”

That Sprint will soon add some slick new Android handsets to its lineup is worrisome, then, indeed. For Palm, it seems, driving conditions on the road to recovery are looking increasingly hazardous.

Which is saying something. Because as you might recall, in 1999, Nasdaq was soaring on the back of the dot-com bubble to levels never before seen.

And here we are amid the worst recession since the 1930s. Haven’t even entered that “all important holiday shopping season” yet, either.

Things are looking pretty good for Amazon (AMZN) right now. Sure, there’s renewed competition from retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT). There are potential sales tax issues and income tax liabilities and a raft of Kindle-killers headed to market. But Amazon’s stock is up 131 percent this year, brokerage firms are upgrading their ratings on the company, and analysts are saying it’s only going to go higher.

Said Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney: “Near-term outlook very positive as AMZN heads into holiday season fully armed against shrinking/de-stocking offline retailers, with one of the must-have gadgets of the season (Kindle), a significantly strengthening International presence, and soon-to-be closed Zappos acquisition.”

Yeah. Things are looking pretty good right now. But we said that back in ‘99 too–when Amazon had a similar P/E.

Now, $500 a share isn’t in the same stratospheric price range at which Google’s stock once traded–certainly it’s not the $707 and $713 it reached in 2007. But it’s a psychological milestone nonetheless, and that’s worth noting because Google’s shares have risen more than 50 percent over the past six months, and Wall Street seems to be growing increasingly more positive on the stock.

Sadly, the same cannot be said for Yahoo (YHOO), which hasn’t elicited the same sort of response. But then why should it? As Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz said earlier today, “Yahoo and Google are different companies. They are in different businesses….They aren’t us and we aren’t them.”

Clearly. Yahoo shares are trading at what, $16?

BoomTown provided continuing coverage of the Yahoo (YHOO) merry-go-round. This time, PR head Jill Nash announced her departure. As the company’s chief communications officer, she’s had a challenging two-year run. New CEO Carol Bartz definitely has some PR ideas of her own, including offering cash prizes to employees who provide info on their colleagues who leak information to the press. Not a huge deterrent yet, apparently–it didn’t take long for BoomTown to get info on both Nash’s farewell memo and Bartz’s bounty system. Next, New Networks, the publisher behind BarelyPolitical and its hugely viral Obama Girl videos, has widened its purview to include the tech sector with BarelyDigital, which the online network has envisioned to include regular shows, tech news remixes and the like. It’s rumored that Obama Girl will be making a cameo appearance or two. If the first two features are any indication, the future looks pretty funny. In another round of executive musical chairs, Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL ad head Lynda Clarizio will be leaving the online service, to be replaced by former Yahoo ad exec Greg Coleman. Microsoft (MSFT) is launching a slick new celebrity site on MSN called Wonderwall, created, designed and produced by BermanBraun Interactive, a Hollywood company run by former Yahoo media chief Lloyd Braun. And speaking of musical chairs, MSN is clearly upping its content ante–earlier this week, it hired Yahoo’s recent media head Scott Moore, who used to work at Microsoft.

MediaMemo asked: What happens when one of the world’s richest men lets loose a swarm (a small swarm) of mosquitoes at a high-end conference? Nothing too exciting, really, but when you consider that the stunt was the publicity-generating part of Bill Gates’s talk at TED, which was a discussion of malaria and some of the problems the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is facing head-on, it gets pretty compelling. Kindle 2.0, the new generation of the device dubbed the “iPod of the book world” will be unveiled Monday at a New York press event, but how many of the devices have been sold thus far? Amazon’s (AMZN) not telling, but Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney estimates the number at 500,000–and believes that the Kindle will be a $1.2 billion business next year. Obviously, a lot will depend on Monday and the new device’s reception. MediaMemo also took some time out this week to wish Facebook a happy fifth birthday, and to stack its track record next to Google’s at the same age, with interesting results. Even the pros are getting hit hard these days–in its quarterly earnings report this week, News Corp. (NWS) missed its estimates, recorded an $8.4 billion write-off and lowered its guidance. CEO Rupert Murdoch admitted that the downturn is worse than he thought. He also admitted that he spent $2.8 billion too much for Dow Jones. (News Corp. is the owner of Dow Jones and this Web site.)

Digital Daily followed the trial of four Google executives this week on criminal charges of defamation and breach of privacy after a much-publicized two-year investigation. Google (GOOG) insists the charges are unwarranted and “akin to prosecuting mail service employees for hate speech letters sent in the post.” Clearly, the ultimate outcome will have a huge impact on the future of a free, open Internet. MySpace said this week that it has identified and ousted 90,000 registered sex offenders–and those are just the ones brilliant enough to use their real names. There’s no way of knowing how many are actually using the service or how to prevent them from re-registering once they’re deleted. A free an open Internet, indeed. DD also pondered the future (or lack thereof) of the Motorola (MOT) handset division. Co-CEO Sanjay Jha says the company is committed to making the business work, but its products are looking boring and outdated, and a turnaround would be prohibitively expensive to execute. In the words of one analyst, the company’s problems are “gruesome.” On the other end of the spectrum, Microsoft continues to vehemently deny reports that it’ll be producing its own smartphone. In a report this week, analysts from Broadpoint.AmTech speculated that the device could be uncrated later this month at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Meanwhile, it’s been up in the air for two years whether or not iPhones will ever be uncrated in historic Georgetown. Apple (AAPL) has been around the table a few times now with preservationists wary of the architectural impact of an Apple store, no matter how much the business traffic is needed in the neighborhood. Looks like perseverance may have finally paid off, though–Georgetown’s Apple store could open later this year.

In Personal Technology this week, Walt Mossberg took a look at a program called Foxmarks, which sets out to synchronize bookmarks among all of your browsers and all of your machines. Sound a little too handy to actually work well? Walt found it does a pretty good job, with a few caveats. In Mossberg’s Mailbox, Walt responds to readers who want to know more about doing “techie” maintenance on their PCs to keep them running well, whether or not to buy a 15-inch MacBook Pro, and options for email within Windows 7, which won’t ship with a built-in email program. In the Mossberg Solution, Katherine Boehret tests Google Latitude, an opt-in program that lets users track one another’s movements on their smartphones using GPS, Wi-Fi, and cell towers. Kind of like Gawker Stalker, only with permission and without Lindsay Lohan (unless you happen to be Lindsay Lohan).

Last but not least, Silicon Valley lost one of its own this week. The widely admired and much loved Mike Homer, whose rare, severe illness was a rallying point for many over the past months, passed away last weekend and was laid to rest on Thursday.

More next week.

“Field checks confirm that shipments of new MacBooks have begun, with a sharp production ramp planned for September and an introduction planned for early October,” Gardner wrote. “The most distinctive features of the new MacBook appear to be a very thin aluminum casing, an LED-backlit display and an aggressive entry-level price point.”

Gardner expects Apple (AAPL) to introduce its fall notebook line “within weeks.” October 14, perhaps?

Interesting to hear that the Bold shares the iPhone’s erratic 3G connection because the device doesn’t share the same Infineon Technologies (IFX) chip believed to be the source of the iPhone’s troubles. Which means the only real point of commonality between the two phones is AT&T’s 3G network, which may still be a bit too immature for either of them.

But according to McAdams Wright Ragen analyst Tim Bueneman, who’s actually, you know, spoken with some Amazon (AMZN) officials, the device might not be selling as well as Mahaney claims. “[Amazon] told us that the Kindle is definitely selling very well, but they also said the analysts and reporters giving out these extremely high estimates ‘did not run them by company,’” Bueneman wrote in a research note to clients that also confirmed that there are “several new, improved versions of the Kindle in the works.”

“Extremely high estimates?” Sounds like Amazon’s trying to temper expectations, doesn’t it? And, perhaps, to live up to them at the same time. The retailer announced a new promotion today that will knock $100 off the Kindle’s $359 price until Sept. 8. That ought to boost the device’s sales numbers, whatever they are.

380,000 Kindles sold. That’s double Mahaney’s May prediction. And it’s an important number historically. “In its first year, that’s exactly how many iPods were sold,” Mahaney wrote. “Turns out the Kindle is becoming the iPod of the book world.”

But is it really? And on what sort of data is that pronouncement based? Amazon (AMZN) itself has disclosed no actual sales data for the Kindle. The company said only that the selection of titles available for the device has jumped 67 percent since its launch. Surely it’s impossible to extrapolate sales of 380,000 from that figure alone. So on what other data is Mahaney relying here? Just this, apparently:

1. An anonymous source recently told TechCrunch that Amazon has shipped 240,000 Kindles. That’s shipped, not sold.
2. Kindle tops Amazon’s Bestsellers in Electronics list
3. Kindle has more than 4,000 customer reviews, quite a few of them positive.

Not exactly an abundance of hard data, is it? Which is not to say that the Kindle isn’t well on its way to becoming the iPod of the book world, just that we won’t know for certain until Amazon tells us with hard sales figures.

“We admit having very limited visibility into the current ramp of the Kindle,” he writes. “And there is the obvious point that Kindle sales could easily cannibalize existing AMZN book sales. But we believe the broader point is that it is not unreasonable to see the Kindle as having a material impact on AMZN’s revenue–low single digits–within two to three years. That may not sound like a lot, but given the company’s current $20 billion revenue run rate, that’s impressive.”

Sure is. If you have hard metrics on which to base such a claim. Sadly, that’s not really the case here. Because Mahaney’s estimate is based on, get this, Kindle’s sales ranking on Amazon’s site and the number of customer reviews it’s been given. From those stats, and Amazon’s apparent difficulty in keeping up with demand for the device, Mahaney figures that 10,000 to 30,000 have been sold in about three months. And then, referencing iPod adoption rates, he extrapolates his figure of $750 million by 2010 from that. Seems a jacktastic stretch of the imagination, doesn’t it?