“There’s room for three to five players in this space. We don’t have to beat each other to prosper.”

– Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein

Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein likes to say smart-phone makers “don’t have to beat each other to prosper,” but it’s beginning to look like they–or, rather, Palm–might have to. Because while the Pre may have put Palm (PALM) back in the game, it’s not clear how long it can keep it there. With competition in the emerging smart-phone market ratcheting up as we head into the holidays, some analysts are predicting that Palm’s quarterly sales may decline–sharply.

“[Palm’s] guidance of a sequential decline in revenues in the second quarter implies that Pre sales are not off to the races,” Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf wrote in a research note today. “Although Palm did not say what Pre sales were in the quarter, they appear to have been around 600,000 units, about 100,000 above our estimate. Palm indicated that revenues could fall to $240 million to $270 million in the second quarter, a number that implies that Pre sales could fall to 500,000 units vs. our previous estimate of 750,000 units.”

Interesting that Wolf pegs Pre sales as being above his estimate, since Palm hasn’t yet broken that number out. Indeed, in a conference call with analysts yesterday the company was so quick to dodge questions about Pre sales that I assumed it’s not an impressive number. But if the company really did ship 600,000 units as Wolf contends, that would suggest it’s doing pretty well at market, though certainly not as well as the Apple (AAPL) iPhone or Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry. Odd then, that Palm wouldn’t disclose a hard sales number.

“The Pre and its siblings running on Palm’s WebOS software platform appear to be a serious contender in the smartphone market,” Wolf concludes. “But it would be premature at this point to declare it a winner in view of the fact that the smartphone market will shortly be overrun with new phones from Motorola and others running on the Android platform as well as new BlackBerry models in time for the holiday selling season.”

Sure, there might be room for three to five players in the smart-phone space, as Rubinstein claims. But that space is currently occupied at least seven players–Apple, RIM, Nokia (NOK), Motorola (MOT), Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Palm. Which means somebody’s got to go. So while Palm might not have to beat anyone to prosper, it may have to, to survive.

“The sole driver of the increase in Apple’s price target is a higher valuation of the iPhone,” Wolf wrote. “Courtesy of network effects, the explosive growth of the iTunes App Store…should translate into a higher growth trajectory of iPhone sales going forward….By exploiting a commanding lead in the all-important smartphone applications market, the iPhone is in a position to chalk up share gains in this fast-growing market that could surprise everyone….In many respects, Apple and Amazon are in similar positions. Amazon holds a relatively small but growing share of the e-commerce market, which itself is small, but growing an order of magnitude faster than the physical retail market.”

Wolf admits that his latest forecast is “judgmental” in that it’s based on the premise that software, namely iPhone applications, will drive hardware, namely iPhone sales. But he explains that the premise does have a proven track record in markets characterized by increasing returns and network effects.

“We have upped the number of iPhones that will be sold in 2018, the final year in our model, from 67 million to 107 million,” Wolf added. “Our forecast has the phone capturing 20 percent share of the smartphone market in that year, up from 12.5 percent recently. We should note that the iPhone’s share of the worldwide market is already around 12.5 percent. So our forecast is by no means an aggressive one.”

No doubt about it, it’s a good time to be an Apple investor.

It has not yet been given a price or a release date, but Palm’s forthcoming Pre handset continues to have a remarkably restorative effect on the company’s share price. It wasn’t so long ago that Palm shares were trading just above a dollar. Today, they’re hovering around $8.67, bouyed up by little more than the device’s Consumer Electronics Show debut, an uneventful media Webcast, some hyperbolic remarks from one of the company’s investors and the enthusiasm of a few bullish analysts. Among them, Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore and Jonathan Goldberg, who boosted their price target on Palm (PALM) to $12 from $10 today claiming that Palm will not only ship the device on schedule, but will follow it up with other form factors. “Since their earnings release last week, we have conducted a round of checks on Palm and remain confident in the potential for their new Pre smartphone to turnaround the company’s results,” the two wrote in a note. “The Pre timetable seems on track at least, and both carrier and developer interest remains high….We also confirmed earlier checks and vague hints on their recent call that the company is working on other form factors which we could see in the market sooner than expected.”

Quite a vote of confidence. Though to be fair, it’s not shared by everyone. Certainly, Needham analyst Charlie Wolf is looking askance at claims that the Pre will turn out to be Palm’s iPhone. “The stock appears fully valued even if the Pre turns into a stunning success,” he wrote in a recent research note. “To have management tell it, WebOS is the best thing since sliced bread and the Pre is a thing of beauty. Obviously, with the platform launch still weeks away, it’s impossible to challenge them.”

Wall Street seems convinced that the Pre is not a postscript for Palm (PALM), but the beginnings of its rebirth. A historic turning point worthy of a trading bacchanal. Indeed, expressing a “renewed confidence in Palm’s prospects, Standard & Poor’s raised its target price on the company to $4.50 from $2.50. “Pre uses a new operating system that allows for the merging of multiple data sources,” Standard & Poor’s analyst Todd Rosenbluth said in a research note. “While the new system has been in long-term development, we believe it could help to bring consumer and carrier interest back to PALM’s devices, which have been losing market share.”

Matt Hoffman of Cowen & Co. agreed. “We believe WebOS will immediately be competitive with the industry’s most advanced mobile platforms, including Apple’s OS X and Google’s Android,” he wrote in a research note to investors.

Other analysts, while similarly optimistic, tempered their enthusiasm with hardcore market realities.

“Palm’s challenge will be to steal at least some of the thunder from the heavyweight contenders in the smartphone market,” said Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co. “In our opinion, the Pre clearly outshines Windows Mobile and Google’s Android platform in their current iterations. But whether it can gain breathing room in an increasingly crowded market remains an open question, especially in view of the prospect that stunning new operating systems and smartphones will also debut during the year.”

“Palm came out with guns blazing,” he told RCR Wireless. “They met or exceeded expectations. This gives the company a sense of momentum and a return to confidence. Of course, the bigger question is how the device is marketed. Will it launch on time? Will AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless get on board? Sprint alone isn’t enough to save the day. The profitability impact at this point is unknown.”

And it can do this, because …

… Needham Research analyst Charlie Wolf says it can.

Figuratively speaking, of course.

A $100 price cut could “double or triple” projected sales, Wolf argued in a note to clients Monday. “In short, the iPhone… could figuratively take over the smartphone market leaving only niche players like BlackBerry.”

Really.

Now, leaving aside, for a moment, the fact that AT&T’s (T) subsidies of the iPhone 3G’s current upfront purchase cost–which reduced its third-quarter earnings by approximately $900 million, or 10 cents per share–may have left it with little stomach for further subsidies. And leaving aside, as well, the fact that AT&T’s network might not be able to handle a sudden doubling or tripling of demand on its 3G abilities without some difficulty. When has Apple (AAPL) ever drastically lowered prices or compromised the quality of its products simply to boost market share? What was it CEO Steve Jobs said last week in answer to an earnings call question about a cheap Apple netbook?

We don’t know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that. But we can continue to deliver greater and greater value to those customers that we choose to serve, and there’s a lot of them. And we’ve seen great success by focusing on certain segments of the market and not trying to be everything to everybody.”

Wouldn’t the iPhone at $99 be an example of Apple trying to be everything to everybody? I’d argue it would.

Which is not to say that it will never happen. During that same earnings call I referenced above, Jobs also said Apple must be careful not to leave a price umbrella beneath the iPhone from which a rival can underprice it. And a $99 price point would almost certainly close that umbrella, wouldn’t it?

The answer to the first philosophical riddle is debatable. The answer to the second?

Well, did you know that AT&T began peddling Palm Centros in its stores today with a new electric blue color and a $70 price tag? I bet AT&T (T) customers walking right by them on their way to pay for their new iPhone 3G didn’t either.

“They took the wrong day to do it,” said Charlie Wolf, a wireless analyst at Needham & Co. “It’s going to be drowned out by the hoopla around the iPhone.”