Now, Disney (DIS) and CBS (CBS) already offer those same shows for viewing on the same day-after-original air date schedule on their own Web sites (though they aren’t presented commercial-free as they will be on Netflix). But that doesn’t seem to matter to Netflix (NFLX), which is clearly positioning itself as a one-stop shop for online delivery of movies and television shows.

And doing quite well at it, I might add. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter estimates that between 10 and 20 percent of Netflix’s 8.4 million subscribers use the company’s streaming service regularly.

I’m not so sure that the whole issue really is one of commercial avoidance. It really is a matter of convenience–so you don’t miss your favorite show. And quite frankly, we’re just training a new generation of viewers to skip commercials because they can. I’m not sure that the driving reason to get a DVR in the first place is just to skip commercials. I don’t fundamentally believe that. People can understand in order to have convenience and on-demand [options], that you can’t skip commercials.”

–ABC President of Advertising Sales Mike Shaw, July 2006

Leave it to ABC to devise a service that offers all the convenience of video-on-demand with all the annoyance and vapidity of broadcast TV in one joyless package. This morning the network and its affiliates announced fast-forward-disabled video on demand, which prevents viewers from bypassing commercials.

Designed to combat the now nearly ubiquitous DVR, the service offers viewers the chance to watch ABC shows like “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives” for free, at any time they choose, as long as they’re willing to suffer through the advertisements that accompany them. And just to make sure that they do, participating affiliates will disable their video-on-demand services’ fast-forwarding capability. “This does counter the DVR,” Anne Sweeney, the president of the Disney-ABC television group (DIS), told the New York Times. “You don’t need TiVo if you have fast-forward-disabled video on demand. It gives you the same opportunity to catch up to your favorite shows.”

And your not-so-favorite commercials. Which would seem to make it about as uncompelling a proposition as … well, as over-the-air broadcast TV. But ABC, which has been testing the service with Cox Communications in Orange County, Calif., insists it’s got an audience. The company says 93% of users it surveyed said they would be willing to give up the fast-forwarding option and watch the commercials if they were given VOD programming for free.

So perhaps the 30-second TV ad has a few more years left in it still. But only a few. According to a study by the Association of National Advertisers and Forrester Research, 62% of marketers believe TV advertising has become less effective in the past few years. And 87% said they plan to increase their online ad spending this year, while many said they will cut their TV ad buys substantially when DVR penetration tops 50%.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department began accepting applications for $40 coupons to defray the cost of a basic digital-to-analog converter box (expected to sell for between $50 and $70) that will allow older TVs to receive digital broadcast signals. “There is a big change in television coming on Feb. 18, 2009, and people who have old televisions who receive free over-the-air broadcasting, which means they are not hooked up to cable or satellite or another pay-TV service, have to make a decision,” Meredith Atwell Baker, deputy assistant secretary of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, told Broadcast Newsroom. “They have three choices. They can buy a new TV that’s digital, they can subscribe to cable or satellite or another service, or they can buy a converter box. Otherwise, their television won’t work.”

The coupons are available on a first-come, first-served basis at www.ntia.doc.gov/dtvcoupon/index.html. And there are about 33 million of them available. Great news for the estimated 26 million households in the United States that have yet to make the jump to digital TV.