“We believe Wal-Mart is actively pitching Apple to carry more products,” Reitzes said in a research note this morning. “With Wal-Mart improving its retail displays, we believe that the mega-retailer could eventually earn the right to sell select Mac products without diluting Apple’s brand….Apple is very particular and exclusive with who sells its Macs and any ‘Mac experiment’ with Wal-Mart would likely start very gradually via a pilot program at first–just like Mac sales started at Best Buy….While we don’t expect an immediate impact this year and believe Apple would need to reposition its line-up first, we believe that closer ties to Wal-Mart makes sense.”

Indeed, Wal-Mart (WMT) could certainly bolster Apple’s (AAPL) distribution, particularly in areas without Apple Stores. A compelling proposition: broader access to the mass-market consumer without the infrastructure costs of a standalone boutique. And surely Apple has overcome its aversion to Wal-Mart now that the big-box retailer has been peddling its iPhones for so long.

The short, and obvious, answer to that question is “a hell of a lot.” In a note to clients today, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi argues that Wal-Mart (WMT) can sell between 800,000 and 1.3 million iPhones in 2009, though the retailer’s low price mantra may appear inconsistent with the iPhone’s market positioning. And that would seem to be a reasonable estimate. After all, Wal-Mart has some 2,500 retail outlets in the states, through which 100 million customers stream each week.

“The addition of Wal-Mart will roughly double the iPhone’s distribution in the US to nearly 6,000 outlets,” Sacconaghi writes. “We believe iPhone sales will benefit from the added distribution, though not proportionately; in our view, price (for both the device and service plan) is still the biggest hurdle to mass adoption…. With the iPhone already available at 3,000 Apple, AT&T (T), and Best Buy (BBY) stores, Wal-Mart likely does little to expand the device’s geographic reach. However, we believe Wal-Mart will have a greater impact on the iPhone’s demographic reach in terms of raising awareness and availability among lower-end consumers who are less likely to shop at the Apple Stores or BestBuy.”

One last point worth noting here, Sacconaghi puts little faith in rumors that Wal-Mart will offer a $99 4GB iPhone. “Could there be a cheaper iPhone at Wal-Mart,” he writes. “We think it unlikely, at least initially, but the idea is not completely unfounded. In our view, a $99 price point for the iPhone seems too low, but some modest discount is not implausible.”

The deal is an obvious coup for the big-box retailer, which, with the exception of Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T), has a national exclusive on the device through Christmas. Just a few weeks back, Stifel Nicolaus analyst David Schick suggested that availability of the iPhone only at Apple and AT&T Wireless stores could “hurt demand or at least foot traffic to Best Buy and Circuit City.” Now that appears to be the fate of Circuit City (CC) alone.

“It solidifies us as the place to go for the cool stuff,” Best Buy Mobile President Shawn Score told Reuters. “Our customers are looking for this product. We do believe that broadening our assortment and having iPhone in our stores is certainly going to be very important [heading into the holiday season].”

Important for Apple as well, assuming the company works through its iPhone shortage problems. Offering the device for sale in Best Buy’s (BBY) 970 stores will certainly make it quite a bit easier for Apple to reach its oft-stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. Not that it really needs any help in that department. According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster Apple is on track to sell 4.47 million iPhones in this quarter alone.