Huh. So perhaps “The Dark Knight” will turn out to be the iPhone 3G of movies.

By June, Wal-Mart will only be carrying Blu-ray movies and hardware machines and, of course, standard-def movies, DVD players, and up-convert players.”

–Susan Chronister of Wal-Mart sticks a fork in HD DVD.

HD DVD may soon join Betamax in the consumer electronics industry’s Museum of Failed Formats. Though publicly HD DVD champion Toshiba professes its commitment to the next generation DVD standard, privately it’s plotting its demise. Sources close to the company tell the Hollywood Reporter that the continued marginalization of HD DVD by movie studios and big box retailers like Wal-Mart has driven Toshiba to concede defeat in the DVD format war. The company plans to pull the plug on HD DVD in a matter of weeks. “An announcement is coming soon,” said one source close to the HD DVD camp.

But not soon enough for some, who are finally seeing their predictions of an HD DVD rout borne out. “Blu-ray’s better, and I told everyone,” said film director Michael Bay. “I was very vocal about it. I knew HD [DVD] was not going to make it. Am I thrilled? It really wasn’t my fight, but remember what I said in the press? I was kind of saying HD [DVD]’s going to lose… No one believed me.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Will the Last Person to Leave the HD DVD Camp Please Turn Off the Blu-ray Player?
• There’s a Singing Fat Lady Here to See You, Sir.
• Ah Yes, a $2.7 Million Super Bowl Ad Will Fix Everything …
• Mistah HD DVD–He Dead …

Though Paramount Pictures has denied reports that it plans to abandon the next-generation DVD format, news of an escape clause in its HD DVD contract allowing it to release films on Blu-ray has the industry wondering aloud about the format’s continued viability.

And for good reason. Earlier this week Universal’s HD DVD-exclusive contract ended. And last Friday, on the eve of the Consumer Electronics Show, Warner Bros. stunned the industry by announcing plans to end support of the format entirely in June. “[That] maybe the pivotal event that resolves the format war,” said Thomas Coughlin of Coughlin Associates. “It certainly changes the rules and the playing field. I think everyone is trying to reassess what this means–including the HD DVD guys. [If Blu-ray does come out on top] it would be poetic justice after the Betamax vs. VHS war. That time, Sony lost.”

But is it truly the format’s death knell? Ovum analyst Carl Gressum says no. “There is a lot of speculation whether this is the end of HD DVD,” he said. “It is not, but we are getting dangerously close to a ‘chapter 11’ for the group. If the other supporting studios now decide to drop HD DVD, the situation will turn dire, and HD DVD could become more of a replacement to DVD on the PC client than as a movie-distribution playback format.”

UPDATE: Universal Pictures flatly denies it’s abandoning the HD DVD format. Said Ken Graffeo, executive vice president of HD strategic marketing for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, “Contrary to unsubstantiated rumors from unnamed sources, Universal’s current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format.”

Sony wants me to publish my films on HD DVD.”

–Joone, founder of adult-entertainment company Digital Playground

If history is any guide, the victor in the battle over the next-generation DVD optical-media standard won’t be determined by the Hollywood studios, but by performers with names like Flick Shagwell and Wendy Whoppers. The adult-entertainment industry, after all, is widely credited with tipping the balance of the videotape format war in favor of VHS, giving it the critical mass of support it needed to check the advance of Sony’s competing Betamax format and turn the battle into a rout.

It should come as little surprise, then, that Sony has reportedly begun offering a bit of technical support to the Japanese porn industry, which has apparently been having a bit of trouble mass-producing its products for Blu-ray Disc. “In Japan, there are some problems. Companies cannot press Blu-ray Discs because they cannot touch adult-related contracts,” Kiyotaka Konno, director of administration for Japanese DVD replication outfit Assist Corp., told Network World. “So we asked some makers in Taiwan to do the work, and then we import the discs back to Japan. The Taiwanese company was able to obtain a pressing machine from Sony and will start mass production in August.”

So it looks like we’ll see Blu-ray tentacle porn after all.

An interesting turnabout for Sony, though the company claims its longstanding policy against manufacturing DVDs or videocassettes with adult content remains unchanged. Lucky for Sony that policy doesn’t extend to other countries–especially when HD DVD has taken an early lead over Blu-ray Disc in the battle to become the next-generation DVD format.