“We believe Wal-Mart is actively pitching Apple to carry more products,” Reitzes said in a research note this morning. “With Wal-Mart improving its retail displays, we believe that the mega-retailer could eventually earn the right to sell select Mac products without diluting Apple’s brand….Apple is very particular and exclusive with who sells its Macs and any ‘Mac experiment’ with Wal-Mart would likely start very gradually via a pilot program at first–just like Mac sales started at Best Buy….While we don’t expect an immediate impact this year and believe Apple would need to reposition its line-up first, we believe that closer ties to Wal-Mart makes sense.”

Indeed, Wal-Mart (WMT) could certainly bolster Apple’s (AAPL) distribution, particularly in areas without Apple Stores. A compelling proposition: broader access to the mass-market consumer without the infrastructure costs of a standalone boutique. And surely Apple has overcome its aversion to Wal-Mart now that the big-box retailer has been peddling its iPhones for so long.

Over at Kaufman Bros., analyst Shaw Wu is betting on new iMacs as well as a sneak preview of Mac OS X 10.6 Leopard. “Our sense is that investor expectations [for Macworld] are fairly modest since it was announced that CEO Steve Jobs wouldn’t be the keynote speaker,” he wrote in a recent research note. “Nonetheless, we view new Macs as a positive catalyst as Apple’s desktop business (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Pro) needs a refresh to re-ignite sales.”

“There will not be any revolutionary products at this year’s event,” writes Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who anticipates the announcement of an updated iMac, possibly a redesigned Mac mini and little else.

Analyst Ben Reitzes of Barclays Capital expects a new iMac to the big announcement in an otherwise “neutral event.”

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi has similarly low expectations. “We expect MacWorld to be relatively unexciting, with the major highlights likely to be (1) a demonstration of Mac OSX 10.6 “SnowLeopard,” (2) new Mac desktops (iMac, MacMini) incorporating the same Nvidia chipset in the new MacBooks, and (3) a modest update to the AppleTV,” he writes. “A new iPhone is unlikely, in our view, though we do expect Apple to introduce a lower-end iPhone model within the first half of the year. Apple announced three weeks ago that this will be its last appearance at MacWorld, and that CEO Steve Jobs will not deliver the keynote this year. Given this, and a relative lack of new product rumors, we do not expect any big surprise announcements at MacWorld.”

And with that, Barclays lowered its estimate for Apple from $121 to $113. Another cautionary report in a parade of them, but one tempered by a bullish note from investment bank Piper Jaffray.

One last point worth noting here. Reitzes’s report includes prominent mention of an Apple netbook. “In our PC forecast we also discussed how low-end netbook PCs ($300-$500) could actually have upside due to a ‘trade-down’ effect with up to 40mm in unit sales possible for this category in 2009 (our views are above consensus for netbooks),” Reitzes wrote. “However, Apple doesn’t participate in this category, with all of its laptops selling for $999 or well above.” He concludes that it makes sense for Apple to enter this market with a high-end touchscreen device that would retail for at least $600. “We envision a product like this to come from Apple in the September 2009 quarter or later (perhaps FY10).”

Here’s hoping….

[Image Credit: Mickphoto/Flickr]