Kara began Monday with some of the hard facts from the pending AOL-TimeWarner (TWX) split. Stock issued for the post-spinoff AOL places the company’s total implied value at around $3 billion. Also on the list of stuff from 1994 that is being jettisoned from tech companies is the original instant messenger, ICQ. Kara reported that AOL seeks to shed the brand in an effort to keep the larger ship afloat. Over at Yahoo (YHOO), Kara opened the lid on CEO Carol Bartz shifting of top execs. In Silicon Valley’s house of cards, everyone watches out for a shuffle.

Over at Digital Daily, John brought some hard numbers to the stresses being felt by AT&T’s (ATT) 3G network thanks to a certain fruit-flavored smartphone. It seems that the iPhone is largely responsible for the 2,000 percent increase in data traffic in the Bay Area compared to a year ago. (Weekend Update doesn’t claim sole responsibility.) Keeping up with layoff news these days is almost a full time job. It’s a good thing Paczkowski is on the case. This week, Sony-Ericsson let roughly 2,000 employees go. The firm plans to shutter whole offices in both the United States and abroad. John finished strong with a whole slew of posts about the forthcoming Google (GOOG) Chrome OS, which was released in a developer’s beta this week. Next year the good kids may be getting their stockings filled of Chrome rather than Apples.

You can never tell what Media Memo will have up its sleeve in a given week, and this on is no exception. Peter came in early with reports that Wired magazine is another publication betting on a certain tablet. Wired may pave the way for other Condé Nast publication e-issues. From the department of “Hey, it looks like it worked for them,” a couple of music giants will release a Hulu-like service for music videos. No word yet on whether or not the Internet killed the video star. Peter closed it out this week with the fizzle that will be Oprah’s broadcast career. The talk show host-tuned deity will end her broadcast career in 2011, but may not be sorely missed by CBS, according to Media Memo. Everyone is pretty torn up about Gail leaving though.

Personal Technology went a little off the reservation this week and covered an intriguing specialty gadget with a very specific target audience. The reading aid for the visually impaired is unusual for many reasons, not the least of which is that its branded Intel (INTC) both on the inside and outside. The reader uses a downward-facing camera to read text and translate it directly to speech. Walt was pleased with the device on the whole, though he encountered some bugs and a somewhat steep learning curve that may be a function of the novel nature of the product. Over at the mailbox, the lead off question this week was about data loss. Once the geek shudders stopped, Walt let the reader know that there are many alternatives to Apple’s (AAPL) Time Capsule drives, and the integrated Time Machine option is one useful alternative. At the Mossberg Solution, Katie won a fight with a Pixi and brought us the blow-by-blow account. The cheap-and-cheerful version of the Palm (PALM) Pre features a stripped-down price. That savings came at too high a performance cost, said Katie. She praised Palms Web OS but came down on the side of spending a little more by getting the Pre.

Stay tuned and check back often. Weekend Update will be back next week as long as we can make it out for the Black Friday sales with all our fingers and toes.

“AT&T did not file this lawsuit because Verizon’s ‘There’s A Map For That advertisements are untrue; AT&T sued because Verizon’s ads are true and the truth hurts.”

– Excerpt from Verizon’s response to AT&T’s complaints about its new ad campaign

Verizon was right. The truth does hurt. And it is especially painful when it’s meted out by a court of law. A U.S. District judge on Wednesday denied AT&T’s request to force Verizon to pull its “There’s A Map For That” and “Island of Misfit Toys” commercials, saying that while the ads might be “sneaky,” they are not deceptive.

“People might misunderstand [Verizon’s commercials],” said U.S. District Judge Timothy Batten, “but that doesn’t mean they’re misleading.”

He gave AT&T (T) another chance to make its case at a Dec. 16 hearing, but given his dim initial view of the company’s complaint, the carrier seems unlikely to prevail.

AT&T plans to press on with the case anyway. “While we are disappointed with the court’s decision on our request for a temporary restraining order, we still feel strongly that Verizon’s ads mislead consumers into thinking that AT&T doesn’t offer wireless service in large portions of the country, which is clearly not the case,” AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel said in an email. “We look forward to presenting our case to the court in the near future.”

In the meantime, AT&T has begun running some attack ads of its own. Sadly, the first effort is not nearly so clever as Verizon’s (VZ) and features far too much Luke Wilson and far too little humor.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Verizon to AT&T: Do Yourself a Favor and Shut Up
• Frosty’s Winter Litigation Wonderland: AT&T Demands Verizon Pull Holiday iPhone Ads [With Full Complaint]
• Verizon Banishes iPhone to Island of Misfit Toys
• Verizon on AT&T Suit: There’s a Word for That. “Junk.”
• Verizon to iPhone Users: “Want Five Times More 3G Coverage? There’s a Map for That.”

If you find this metric as astonishing as I do, consider this: The increase in Bay Area data traffic is actually below the national average–significantly below. According to AT&T (T) CTO John Donovan, 3G data traffic on the company’s wireless network has risen nearly 5,000 percent in the past 12 quarters nationally (see chart below; click to enlarge).

“Today, we’re seeing unprecedented growth in mobile broadband traffic,” Donovan said during his keynote at the Open Mobile Conference on Nov. 5. “This growth has required extensive rethinking of wireless networks as we know them, as well as significant advances in the supporting IP backbone and other infrastructure.”

A 5,000 percent increase in 3G data traffic: That’s an astonishing figure. Seems to me it’s entirely likely that any carrier that had been first with the iPhone–including catcalling rival Verizon (VZ)–would have suffered network troubles similar to those that plague AT&T today.

No other U.S. carrier offers a super-smartphone that has sold as well as the iPhone and that people use much like a laptop. Sure, Android and Palm (PALM) webOS devices are used in this way as well, but there are far fewer of them and they have significantly fewer data-hungry apps.

Research in Motion (RIMM) offers some BlackBerries that are used this way, but only some, and there are only 3,000 or so apps available for them. iPhone owners have 100,000 apps from which to choose. And while it’s obvious that there are more BlackBerries in use than iPhones, some of these rely on AT&T’s network, which only compounds the carrier’s problems.

So, really, any carrier that had been first to market with the iPhone would have seen its network overtaxed, especially after Apple (AAPL) launched the iPhone 3G and the iTunes App Store. Those events effectively upended traditional planning models for network capacity in a way that no one was prepared for.

Perhaps other carriers would have fared a bit better. Verizon’s 3G network, even back in 2007, was much deeper and broader than AT&T’s. But could it really have supported a 5,000 percent increase in data traffic without incident? I’m not so sure.

Which is not to say that AT&T is blameless. Its network has lagged and continues to do so, and the iPhone and the massive surge in data traffic it brought with it are not entirely responsible for that.

But they are obviously a big factor. It will be interesting, then, to see how Verizon’s network holds up in comparison if and when the carrier gets the iPhone.

[Image Credit: Morgan Stanley Managing Director Mary Meeker]

Make no mistake, that surge has been massive. Says AT&T (T): “Since 2008 AT&T’s network in the San Francisco area has experienced a 3G data traffic increase of 2,000 percent.”

Wow. No wonder my calls kept dropping at that last Apple (AAPL) event in San Francisco (yes, an iPhone 3G repeatedly dropping calls at Apple’s Sept. invitation-only music gathering). In any event, the upgrade, which includes the bolstering of backbone infrastructure, should result in better coverage, 3G performance and in-building penetration.

“More than ever before, customers look to wireless communications to stay in touch with family, friends and business colleagues,” said Terry Stenzel, AT&T vice president and general manager for Northern California/Reno. “The additional spectrum helps to enhance the 3G network so that our customers have the best experience when they make a call, check an e-mail, download a video or song, access applications or surf the Internet on their AT&T device.”

So begins Verizon’s (VZ) response to AT&T’s (T) complaints about its new ad campaign, and as you can see below, it pulls no punches. For 53 pages–all of them very obviously drafted with publication in mind–the new filing mercilessly thrashes AT&T, proving over and over again that the carrier’s carping over Verizon’s ads has transformed a no-win situation into a horrific PR disaster that only highlights AT&T’s shortcomings.

“In the final analysis, AT&T seeks emergency relief because Verizon’s side-by-side, apples-to-apples comparison of its own 3G coverage with AT&T’s confirms what the marketplace has been saying for months: AT&T failed to invest adequately in the necessary infrastructure to expand its 3G coverage to support its growth in smartphone business and the usefulness of its service to smartphone users has suffered accordingly. AT&T may not like the message that the ads send, but this Court should reject its efforts to silence the messenger.”

Brutal.

As I said earlier this month, if AT&T’s lawsuit over Verizon’s allegedly misleading “there’s a map for that” wasn’t a public relations mistake to begin with, it will be by the time Verizon gets through. And, indeed, the lawsuit already is a mistake. Below, Verizon’s reply in full:

PREVIOUSLY:

• Frosty’s Winter Litigation Wonderland: AT&T Demands Verizon Pull Holiday iPhone Ads [With Full Complaint]
• Verizon Banishes iPhone to Island of Misfit Toys
• Verizon on AT&T Suit: There’s a Word for That. “Junk.”
• Verizon to iPhone Users: “Want Five Times More 3G Coverage? There’s a Map for That.”

verizonresponse –

Why China and Brazil? Well, for one thing, they are developing markets. For another, Dell (DELL) already has partners there.

“Besides size (China Mobile has over 500 million subscribers, and Claro serves more than 42 million), we have existing telecom partnerships with them,” Dell blogger Lionel Menchaca said in a post. “Back in April, we were the first to embed China Mobile’s technology into our Mini 10 netbook. And if you’ve been watching, you know Dell has agreements with lots of other providers like Vodafone in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. We’ve partnered with AT&T and Verizon in the United States to offer mobile broadband on different products, and we have agreements with other carriers in Asia.”

Interesting. Presumably this means we’ll see the Mini rolled out in short order in these other countries as well. As you may recall, Dell was rumored to be building an Android handset for AT&T (T) in early October.

Once again, AT&T (T) argues that coverage maps featured in Verizon’s (VZ) ad are misleading and falsely suggest that AT&T offers no coverage in areas where it actually does service.

“Contrary to the image presented in the Verizon ads, our wireless network is pervasive,” said an AT&T spokesman. “It covers over 300 million people, or 97 percent of the U.S. population. Our fastest, or 3G, network covers approximately 233 million people, or 75 percent of the U.S. population….[Verizon's] use of white space is misleading.”

While AT&T is deadly serious about this accusation, the fact that it must make it by referencing creatures like the Abominable Snow Monster and a pink spotted elephant makes it, well, hysterical.

“The ‘Island of Misfit Toys’ television advertisement is a parody of the ‘Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer’ television special that depicts an island to which Rudolph travels after escaping an attack from the Abominable Snow Monster,” AT&T argues in its complaint. “The advertisement begins with outdated, discarded toys expressing surprise at the arrival of an Apple iPhone. The red Charlie-in-the-Box says ‘Hey! Check out the new guy!’ The spotted elephant, in a surprised manner, asks the iPhone ‘What are you doing here? You can download apps and browse the web!’ and a Dolly for Sue asserts that ‘Yeah. People will love you [the iPhone].’”

The complaint continues: “In response, a blue AT&T coverage map depicting large swaths of ‘white’ or ‘blank’ space across the United States appears above the iPhone. All the toys exclaim ‘Oh . . .’ in dismay, while the iPhone wilts and its screen turns dark. The toy airplane then assures the iPhone that ‘you’re going to fit right in here!’”

Finally, as AT&T describes it, “AT&T’s and Verizon’s coverage maps then appear and the announcer states, ‘with five times more 3G coverage than AT&T, Verizon Wireless is your destination for great gifts.’ The image of the sad and wilting iPhone on an island of misfit toys falsely communicates that the iPhone is a broken device because it cannot browse the web or download applications when outside of AT&T’s depicted coverage area. Further, the maps in the advertisement deceive consumers into believing that AT&T’s customers have no coverage whatsoever when they are outside of AT&T’s depicted coverage area and thus cannot use their wireless devices in many parts of the United States.”

Verizon’s attorneys are probably doubled over with laughter at this very moment.

Below, AT&T’s amended complaint in its entirety:

VerizonAmendComp _3_ –

With Clearwire struggling to build out a next-generation network that will go up against Verizon Wireless (VZ) and AT&T (T) for future mobile customers, Sprint has little choice but to throw more money at it. But it’s not alone in doing so. Fellow partners Comcast (CMSCA), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Intel (INTC), Eagle River Holdings and Bright House Networks are also making additional investments, though together they total only $500 million.

Oddly absent from this list is Google (GOOG), which participated in a May 2008 investment round that pumped $12 billion into Clearwire but has evidently decided to sit this one out. Said Google spokesman Andrew Pederson: “We have already made a significant financial investment, and at this point we think the best way we can continue to add value is through continued product and strategic cooperation.”

One wonders if the shared mission of which the two companies boasted when the deal was announced has somehow changed in the ensuing year.

All of the new commercials are Christmas-themed and all feature Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, though they are careful to leave it unscathed by Verizon’s criticism of AT&T (T). The standout among the three, this re-creation of the “Island of Misfit Toys” scene from the 1964 Rankin/Bass stop-motion animated Christmas television special, “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer.” Note that the conceit of the ad is that iPhone has been banished to the Island of Misfit Toys not because of its quality but because of of AT&T’s 3G network.

A pretty brilliant escalation of Verizon’s marketing battle with AT&T and one that suggests through its deference to the iPhone that there may be more to these Verizon iPhone rumors than previously thought.

Below, Verizon’s other two ads.

“Verizon is displaying maps of the United States that purport to show each carrier’s ‘3G’ coverage. The maps use color to depict the areas of the country in which each carrier has ‘3G’ coverage and blank or white space in the areas of the country where ‘3G’ coverage is not available. Consumers are interpreting the white or blank space on the maps to mean that AT&T customers who are not in an AT&T ‘3G’ coverage area have no wireless coverage whatsoever, and therefore have no ability to use their wireless devices for any purposes in vast areas of the country. This interpretation is not surprising as Verizon, in its own coverage maps, uses white space to inform customers that no coverage of any kind exists. Contrary to the misleading message conveyed by Verizon’s advertisements, AT&T customers can fully use their wireless devices outside of a ‘3G’ coverage area and undisputedly have coverage in areas depicted by the white or blank spaces on the maps used in Verizon’s advertisements.”

– Excerpt from AT&T’s complaint against Verizon

If AT&T’s lawsuit over Verizon’s allegedly misleading “there’s a map for that” wasn’t a public relations mistake to begin with, it will be by the time Verizon gets through with it. Responding to the suit today, Verizon (VZ) rep Jeffrey Nelson used it to stoke public perception that AT&T’s (T) network is inferior to Verizon’s.

“This is a junk lawsuit. It has no merit,” Nelson told Adweek. “It’s surprising that rather than defend the ‘blue’ hot spots on their 3G map, our competitor instead focuses on their white spaces. The maps clearly note that the comparisons are of 3G service, and further note that voice and data services are available in other places.”

Way to draw attention away from Verizon’s claim of a superior network coverage, AT&T.

In its second quarter–the first with the Pre in its lineup–Sprint (S) lost 991,000 postpaid subscribers. And in its third, reported yesterday, its lost 801,000. So subscriber loss, while unquestionably gruesome, is diminishing.

How much of this is due to Palm’s (PALM) Pre? Not that much, says CL King & Associates analyst Lawrence Harris, who believes the Pre had only a moderate impact on Sprint’s postpaid subscriber base.

“Within postpaid, the number of CDMA-only subscriber losses was about 100,000 in the September quarter, compared to the 200,000 in the June quarter,” Harris wrote in a research note to clients. “At Sprint, the Palm Pre is a CDMA-only postpaid device. The number of Sprint postpaid subscribers upgrading their handsets was slightly higher in the September quarter than in the June quarter at just over 2.0 million.”

According to Harris, “This number provides some indication of the available market for all high-end devices at Sprint. In Palm’s August quarter, 85% of the company’s sales went to Sprint. Given the absence of growth in Sprint’s CDMA postpaid category, it appears likely that most of the Palm Pre sales went to existing Sprint subscribers as opposed to winning customers from other carriers.”

That would seem to be the case. Sprint rivals AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ) each added subscribers during the second quarter–1.4 million and 1.1 million, respectively. So if the Pre did anything for Sprint, it helped to stem CDMA postpaid losses a bit.

And that’s something, right? After all, there’s no panacea for Sprint’s affliction–well, perhaps there is, but it’s locked up in an exclusivity agreement with AT&T (T). Still, when Sprint last reported earnings, CEO Dan Hesse said the carrier expected to sign up more new customers as the Pre gained wider distribution through retail outlets like Best Buy (BBY) and RadioShack. And that doesn’t really seemed to have happened. Perhaps next quarter after Sprint launches the Pre’s not-quite-cheaper sibling, the Pixi.

UPDATE: A quick addendum. In a research note this morning, Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett notes that while Sprint has reduced subscriber losses a bit, the cost of doing so has been worrisomely high.

“Yes, net subscriber losses were better,” Moffet explains. “But the cost was very high. Post-paid equipment subsidies soared to $139 per subsidized subscriber in Q3 (up 39 percent from last year), as the company recovered just 36 percent of their equipment costs….Yesterday’s results illustrate why it may not be possible for Sprint to have its cake and eat it too. After all the drastic cost cutting, after all the efforts to refresh the product line, after all the price cuts and new pricing plans, Sprint was able to manage only a modest improvement. Not growth, just a slightly slower rate of decline. And that Herculean effort almost broke the bank. The huge costs of even marginally improving gross additions (and the rate of net subscriber loss) crushed margins.”

Reporting a wider third-quarter loss than expected this morning, Sprint (S) said it lost 545,000 wireless customers and 801,000 more in the crucial postpaid category. That’s well below what analysts had feared, but brutal nonetheless. Even more so considering that AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ) added two million and 1.2 million total customers respectively during their latest quarters.

As I said earlier this year, Sprint is hemorrhaging subscribers like Dan Ackroyd’s exsanguinating Julia Child. And it continues to do so. The company’s churn rate, or the measure of subscribers dropping service, was 2.17 percent, up from 2.05 percent in the second quarter. Alarming, to say the least, though as the charts below (click to enlarge) indicate, the bleeding is slowing a bit.

And what of Sprint’s financial performance for the quarter? Well, put it this way: The company lost nearly half a billion dollars. For the three months ending Sept. 30, Sprint lost $478 million, or 17 cents a share. This compares with a loss of $326 million, or 11 cents a share, during the same period in 2008.

Analysts had been expecting a loss of 21 cents a share for the quarter. Revenue was $8.04 billion, down nine percent from $8.82 billion last year and below consensus estimates of $8.09 billion for the quarter.

In other words, another tough quarter for Sprint. Said Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett: “The results illustrate the enormous challenge facing Sprint. Many of the cost cuts have already been taken. Their best exclusive handset has been deployed. And still, the rock rolls downhill.”