“The big steps we’ve been out and after for the last several years in search [have] not been achieved and you’d have to say that the future is speculative. We’ve been asked a lot whether we’re open to consolidating transactions in the area of search. The answer is yes and it’s unlikely that we would be the consolidator.”

– IAC CEO Barry Diller

If Barry Diller is looking for somewhere to unload IAC’s Ask.com search engine, he’d be wise to consider Microsoft–if he doesn’t have that in mind already. Analysts reflecting on Diller’s recent remarks about Ask’s “speculative future” say Microsoft is the most likely buyer if IAC (IACI) is truly serious about dumping the little search engine that couldn’t.

Ask, analysts note, has about four percent of the domestic search market, which would give Microsoft (MSFT) a nice little bump up from the 9.4 percent market share it currently claims. And it certainly wouldn’t hurt that a Microsoft acquisition would undoubtedly mean the end of Ask’s relationship with Google (GOOG).

“Right now, Microsoft wants share so they could pick up those points from Ask,” Colin Gillis, an analyst at Brigantine Advisors, told Reuters. “Plus it has a double impact since Google powers Ask’s paid search.”

And speculative is an apt word for it. With just four percent share of the search market, according to comScore (SCOR), Ask has long been the inveterate fourth-place player in a contest increasingly dominated by Google (GOOG). And though it has certainly tried, Ask just can’t seem to make any headway. It isn’t fighting a losing battle, it’s fighting one that was lost long ago. No surprise then to hear that Diller is tiring of it.

Asked during an earnings call Tuesday if IAC (IACI) would consider selling the search engine, Diller said it most certainly would. “We’ve been asked a lot whether we’re open to consolidating transactions in the area of search. The answer is yes,” he said. “And, it is unlikely that we would be the consolidator.”

Obviously.

So Ask is for sale. The question now is who wants it?

The company has once again achieved top rank among Internet search engines and portals in the American Consumer Satisfaction Index, the seventh time it has done so in eight years. This year Google (GOOG) received 86 points, out of a possible 100, besting Yahoo’s (YHOO) 77 points, Microsoft’s (MSFT) 75, Ask.com’s 74 and AOL’s 70.

That’s a nice lead and one Google should have no trouble maintaining if it stays its course. This, in spite of Microsoft’s new search effort, Bing, and its “boatloads of value” search deal with Yahoo.

Though the latest ACSI scores don’t reflect either (they were complied prior to Bing’s launch and the Microsoft-Yahoo announcement) Larry Freed, president and CEO of ForeSee Results, which compiles the rankings, doesn’t see them doing much to undermine Google. As Freed notes, Google is unquestionably king of search and the only competition in ACSI’s search category is for second place.

“Where will Bing’s market share come from? From Yahoo and MSN initially and maybe from Ask.com, though Ask is a niche player with stable customer satisfaction and market share,” Freed said. “It seems unlikely that customers will actually leave Google in enough numbers to allow Bing to seriously challenge Google’s market dominance, given Google’s extremely high customer satisfaction.”

Freed adds: “People are happy with Google, so why would they switch? They might switch if Bing is better, and that’s a tall order considering Google is the second-highest scoring ACSI service-sector company, behind Newegg.com. Bing has been called a search engine war ‘game changer,’ but Google’s game will be very hard to change at this point. If anyone can do it, it’s the combined resources and market share of Yahoo and MSN.”

According to the latest metrics from comScore (SCOR), Google’s share of the core U.S. search market increased to 63.5 percent in November, from 63.1 percent in October. Meanwhile, Yahoo’s (YHOO) share of the market declined to 20.4 percent from 20.5 percent,
Microsoft’s (MSFT) share slipped to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent, and IAC’s (IACI) Ask.com share fell…. Well, why even bother with Ask, right?

With Google closing in on 70 percent market share, two things are increasingly clear:

1. Search = natural monopoly business
2. Google = search’s presiding monopolist

None of this has helped. None of it has bolstered Microsoft’s laggard search service, which continues to toddle along behind Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO)–a very distant third in the search market. In fact, MSN/Windows Live seems to be suffering from the company’s efforts. According to Nielsen Online’s MegaView search ranking for July, searches on MSN/Windows Live declined 2 percent month-over-month and 10 percent year-over-year. Its July 2008 share of the search market: 11.9 percent. Meanwhile, Google gained a share point from June to July, claiming 60 percent of the eight billion searches conducted during the month. And it posted 16 percent year-over-year growth, more than five times the overall growth in search.

Clearly, Microsoft’s efforts to draw users to MSN/Windows Live has yet to make much of a difference in the search share race. Nor have the efforts of other companies. Searches on Yahoo dropped 11 percent year-over-year, leaving the company with a 17.4 percent market share. AOL’s (TWX) fell 9 percent over the year, leaving it with 4.6 percent market share. And Ask.com’s (IAC) rose 13 percent, leaving it with 2 percent share, Nielsen said.

Despite their best efforts, Microsoft, Yahoo and Ask.com just can’t seem to narrow, even slightly, Google’s massive lead in online search.

Google’s (GOOG) share of the U.S. search market increased to 68.29% in May from 67.9% in April and 65.13% a year ago, according to market research firm Hitwise. Meawhile, Yahoo’s (YHOO) share fell to 19.95% from 20.28% a month ago and 20.89% a year ago. Microsoft (MSFT) didn’t fare much better. Market share for its search service fell to 5.89%, from 6.26% in April and 7.61% a year ago.

Clearly, the search wars are over–at least for the time being. If search is a natural monopoly business, then Google would appear to be its presiding monopolist.

A pretty dismal showing for the other four “major” search engines, which apparently bleed and sweat search market share. As noted here last week, the IT industry used to say that IBM (IBM) wasn’t the competition; it was the environment in which you compete. Today the adage seems equally applicable to Google, which dominates the search market just as IBM once dominated the computer industry.

It has not, as CEO Jim Safka vehemently points out in an interview with Forbes today, ceded the search battle to anyone. “It’s horses–t,” he told Forbes.com. “It’s categorically not true. We’re more committed to our algorithm and engineers than ever. While Yahoo and Microsoft are paralyzed by trying to figure out what’s happening to their companies, we’re trying to figure out what’s next in search. You’re going to see more innovation coming out of Ask then ever before.”

The first evidence of that “innovation”? Ask’s acquisition of that paragon of innovation Lexico Publishing Group LLC, the owner of Dictionary.com, Thesaurus.com and Reference.com. With Lexico’s properties in its pocket, Ask expects to expand its audience to more than 145 million unique monthly users–an increase that the company claims would make it the ninth-largest Web property globally. Whether the company means among all users or just married women primarily living in the South and the Midwest remains to be seen …

Company spokesman Nicholas Graham tells Search Engine Watch that an Associated Press report that claimed the little engine that can’t was retooling itself as a search engine for married women primarily living in the South and the Midwest was erroneous.

“The idea that we’re going to become a women’s site is just plain wrong. We know that a sizable group of our core user base is women, and we know they come to us for a certain kind of search: to get answers, often in areas of reference, health and entertainment,” Graham said. “We recognize that we can’t be all things to all people, so we’re focusing on our core group of users. We want to build up the kinds of answers those users are looking for, while at the same time remain a strong search site.”