Just as MediaMemo predicted, Walt Disney Co. has finally taken a stake in Hulu, the video-streaming site operated by General Electric’s (GE) NBC Universal, News Corp. (NWS) and Providence Equity Partners. Under the terms of the deal announced today, Disney will sign on as a joint partner in the venture and bring full-length episodes of long-absent programs like “Lost” and “Grey’s Anatomy” to Hulu. Financial terms and the structure of the deal weren’t disclosed, but sources say Disney’s stake in the venture will be close to 30 27 percent.

“From our landmark iTunes deal to our pioneering decision to stream ad supported shows on our ABC.com player, Disney has sought to meet the constantly evolving viewing habits of our consumers, and today’s Hulu announcement is the next important step in that ongoing journey,” Disney CEO Bob Iger bloviated. “Disney and Hulu share a focus on delivering the highest-quality entertainment experience and we look forward to working with Hulu to build value for our consumers, our brands and our shareholders.”

A few points worth noting here before the full press release below. This is mostly a broadcast deal. Aside from a smattering of Disney Channel shows, it includes very little cable programming. There is, for example, nothing from ESPN. Presumably, that’s because Disney doesn’t want to upset the folks who actually pay to watch that stuff.

Disney’s decision to join Hulu shows the company is confident that the site’s audience is distinct enough from audiences served by cable, ABC.com and its other sites that there’s no real risk of cannibalizing them. And that runs contrary to what many networks assume about online.

Disappointingly, there’s no mention in the release of classic animation, whether shorts or features.

As MediaMemo has noted, this is a big deal for Hulu, which has now allied with three of the four big broadcast networks.

CBS (CBS) is now the sole holdout among big program providers. When asked about its position, a spokesman replied with this statement: “CBS has long employed open, non-exclusive content partnerships that allow fans across the internet to engage with our programming in such a way that we control our distribution, sales and profit. We continue to discuss similar arrangements with additional partners as we grow our online audience based on the strength of our content, and the passion of the communities it creates. The Company also believes that controlling our own rights for that content–in all media–preserves its value in a multi-platform business system.”

Disney (DIS) to Join NBC Universal, News Corporation and Providence Equity Partners as an Equity Owner of Hulu

LOS ANGELES–Hulu and The Walt Disney Company today announced that Disney, through a subsidiary of ABC Enterprises Inc., has agreed to join NBC Universal, News Corporation and Providence Equity Partners as a joint venture partner and equity owner of Hulu, a leading online aggregator of video content. Upon closing, the agreement will enhance Hulu’s programming line-up through the expanded online distribution of Disney’s most popular current and library primetime series and library feature films. In particular, full-length episodes of hit current and library programs like Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, Private Practice, Ugly Betty, Scrubs, Greek, Hope and Faith, Less Than Perfect, Wizards of Waverly Place, Phineas and Ferb, Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, General Hospital, The View and The Secret Life of the American Teenager will soon be streamed on Hulu on an ad-supported basis.

“From our landmark iTunes deal to our pioneering decision to stream ad supported shows on our ABC.com player, Disney has sought to meet the constantly evolving viewing habits of our consumers, and today’s Hulu announcement is the next important step in that ongoing journey,” said Robert A. Iger, president and CEO, The Walt Disney Company. “Disney and Hulu share a focus on delivering the highest-quality entertainment experience and we look forward to working with Hulu to build value for our consumers, our brands and our shareholders.”

“We’re honored to welcome the Disney team in our mission to help people find and enjoy the world’s premium content, when, where and how they want it,” said Jason Kilar, CEO of Hulu. “With the addition of shows like Lost, Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy and many more to Hulu, we continue to aspire to deliver a service that users, advertisers and content owners unabashedly love.”

Following the closing, content available to Hulu users will include:

• Full-length episodes of ABC primetime programs like Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, Ugly Betty, Samantha Who?, Scrubs, Private Practice and popular late night talk show Jimmy Kimmel Live
• Full-length episodes of hit ABC Family series like The Secret Life of the American Teenager and Greek
• Popular series from ABC Daytime and SOAPnet like General Hospital and The View
• Classic series from ABC’s library like Hope and Faith, Less Than Perfect, Commander in Chief, Who Wants To Be A Millionaire and Dancing with the Stars
• Select hit programs from Disney Channel like Wizards of Waverly Place and Phineas and Ferb which can be easily accessed from a new DISNEY location in the Channel section of Hulu.com
• Popular library titles from The Walt Disney Studios
• Short-form content including webisodes, sneak peeks and episode recaps from ABC Entertainment, ABC Family and SOAPnet
“Hulu, quite simply, now has the best premium content on the web,” said Peter Chernin, president and COO, News Corporation. “With three major networks and over 150 leading content providers providing content, combined with the best video user interface anywhere on the web, Hulu offers consumers the finest premium online video experience available today.”

“Hulu has shown that if you make quality content available on the web and combine it with an unbeatable user experience, viewers will come, and so will advertisers,” said Jeff Zucker, president and CEO, NBC Universal. “The addition of some of the best content Disney/ABC has to offer will only enhance Hulu’s standing as a top site for high quality video entertainment.”

Jonathan M. Nelson, CEO of Providence, said “Hulu is creating significant value for users, advertisers and content owners. This balance, together with aggregated professional content and an expanding base of over 200 brand advertisers, is establishing Hulu as a compelling online video monetization platform. Hulu is a bright spot in the new media landscape.”

The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory review. As an equity partner, Disney will have three seats on the Hulu Board that will be held by Mr. Iger; Anne Sweeney, co-chair, Disney Media Networks and president, Disney/ABC Television Group; and Kevin Mayer, executive vice president, Corporate Strategy, Business Development & Technology. All other current directors from News Corp, NBC Universal and Providence will remain on the Hulu board.

“Eventually we’d like to make money out of it.”

– Google CEO Eric Schmidt on YouTube

It’s been well over two years since the $1.65 billion acquisition and Google has yet to truly monetize YouTube. And while the company persists in claiming it has the “luxury of time” to develop the business model through which it will recoup its investment in the popular video site, it’s clear that time is running out. To wit, a report this week from Credit Suisse that predicts YouTube will earn $240 million in revenue in 2009. Which wouldn’t be half bad were it not for the fact that YouTube is on track to lose $470 million in 2009. The research house figures YouTube will rack up about $711 million in operating expenses this year–$360 million on bandwidth alone.

An unfortunate disparity, that. Is it one that can be corrected? Credit Suisse seems to think so. “In our view, the issue for YouTube going forward is to increase the percentage of its videos that can be monetized (likely through more deals with content companies) and to drive more advertiser demand through standardization of ad formats and improved ad effectiveness,” it explained in a research note. Of course, this is exactly what YouTube is doing. On Monday the company said it has agreed to an ad revenue-sharing partnership with Disney (DIS) that will see it putting ABC and ESPN videos on YouTube. A small first step, but one that could portend a trend. Especially, if as Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt says, the company hopes to eventually make money out of it.

To repeat: 200 million. Not bad, considering that Apple tossed NBC’s fall TV lineup off iTunes last year. And sales are certain to grow, now that all four of the major TV networks–ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC–are offering HD versions of its programs through iTunes. Which means Apple is well-positioned to take advantage of an online video market that In-Stat expects to hit $4.5 billion in sales by 2012.

I’m not so sure that the whole issue really is one of commercial avoidance. It really is a matter of convenience–so you don’t miss your favorite show. And quite frankly, we’re just training a new generation of viewers to skip commercials because they can. I’m not sure that the driving reason to get a DVR in the first place is just to skip commercials. I don’t fundamentally believe that. People can understand in order to have convenience and on-demand [options], that you can’t skip commercials.”

–ABC President of Advertising Sales Mike Shaw, July 2006

Leave it to ABC to devise a service that offers all the convenience of video-on-demand with all the annoyance and vapidity of broadcast TV in one joyless package. This morning the network and its affiliates announced fast-forward-disabled video on demand, which prevents viewers from bypassing commercials.

Designed to combat the now nearly ubiquitous DVR, the service offers viewers the chance to watch ABC shows like “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives” for free, at any time they choose, as long as they’re willing to suffer through the advertisements that accompany them. And just to make sure that they do, participating affiliates will disable their video-on-demand services’ fast-forwarding capability. “This does counter the DVR,” Anne Sweeney, the president of the Disney-ABC television group (DIS), told the New York Times. “You don’t need TiVo if you have fast-forward-disabled video on demand. It gives you the same opportunity to catch up to your favorite shows.”

And your not-so-favorite commercials. Which would seem to make it about as uncompelling a proposition as … well, as over-the-air broadcast TV. But ABC, which has been testing the service with Cox Communications in Orange County, Calif., insists it’s got an audience. The company says 93% of users it surveyed said they would be willing to give up the fast-forwarding option and watch the commercials if they were given VOD programming for free.

So perhaps the 30-second TV ad has a few more years left in it still. But only a few. According to a study by the Association of National Advertisers and Forrester Research, 62% of marketers believe TV advertising has become less effective in the past few years. And 87% said they plan to increase their online ad spending this year, while many said they will cut their TV ad buys substantially when DVR penetration tops 50%.

7:40 p.m. A few more moments of guitar wankery from Slash and … well, I guess that’s it. Bach, not Gates, ends the keynote. “I’ll see you again next year,” he says as Gates waves briefly and leaves the stage. Must be rushing off to that billion-dollar-a-hand poker game at Caesars … And the lights go up. That is it. Quite a disappointment. Take away the celebrity appearances and what’s left is a well-rehearsed series of anticlimaxes and rehashes of demos past. A pity, really.
7:38 p.m.: Gates: She’s pretty good. But I’ve got my own ringer here … (Pleeeeease let it be Wayne Newton)
Nope. It’s Carrot Top. Kidding … It’s Slash it’s from Guns n’ Roses playing “Welcome to the Jungle” for real. He doesn’t miss a note either. Dry ice smoke and flashing lights.
7:36 p.m.: Bach challenges Gates to a Guitar Hero 3 match. Bach invites Guitar Hero champion Kelly Clarkson to play against Gates. … She plays Guns n’ Roses’ “Welcome to the Jungle” and doesn’t miss a note.
7:35 p.m.: Gates using the device to navigate video archives of keynotes past. Microsoft’s version of iTunes’ ‘Cover Flow.’ Messy.
7:33 p.m.: Gates uses the device to scan a photo of the Vegas skyline behind him. Clicks on the Venetian. The screen displays information for his keynote address. Pops another note indicating Ballmer’s playing nickel slots at another casino. Laughter.
7:31 p.m.: Bach brings Gates back onstage to discuss the future. … Gates takes the stage again with a handheld video recognition device. He points it at Bach and clicks. It recognizes Bach, displays his name onscreen, along with a note saying he owes Gates money.
7:29 p.m.: Fellow presenter uses Tellme to search out a movie theater, browse movie listings, purchase tickets for a movie and then send them to a friend. Pretty slick, especially given the size of the mobile advertising market.
7:27 p.m.: On to Windows Mobile and Microsoft’s Tellme service.
7:26 p.m.: Bach and fellow presenter now demoing “Sync”–an in-car voice-command technology that enables Zune owners to sync their Zunes to their car stereos and then navigate their music libraries with voice commands.
7:24 p.m.: Bach talks about Zune Social as a service that drives music transactions from discovery to purchase. Find a song you like on a friend’s page, click on it and purchase from Zune Marketplace. Again, haven’t we heard all this before?
7:22 p.m.: Listening habits are tracked via “cards.” Bands can create their own Zune Social pages as well. Essentially, MySpace for music.
7:20 p.m.: Zune Social apparently tracks your listening habits in real-time. It’s all about “people-powered music discovery.”
7:18 p.m.: Bach talking up the Zune now. … Demoing Zune Social.
7:17 p.m.: British Telecom is to begin selling Xbox 360s as Media-Room based set-top boxes. Price of relocation to UK not included with activation fee …
7:15 p.m.: In addition to this, MGM will also be adding its film library to Xbox Live. End result: Twice as many hours of on-demand programming as any cable provider out there.
7:14 p.m.: ABC and Disney will be bringing their programming to Xbox Live.
7:13 p.m.: Gates brings Robbie Bach onstage to talk about Xbox 360.
7:11 p.m.: Using Microsoft Silverlight technology, NBC and MSN will put some 3,000 hours of high-definition footage of the Beijing Olympics online. Wow: 3,000 hours of video. What a massive effort. First of its kind.
7:10 p.m.: Gates commenting on broadcast television: “It simply isn’t as fulfilling an experience as online video.”
Here comes another video segment. … Bob Costas pitching.
7:09 p.m.: Moving on to Silverlight. Gates says NBC has chosen Microsoft as its exclusive online video partner for the 2008 Olympics.
7:08 p.m.: He finishes up the design, lays his phone down on the screen and it automatically emails his design to friends for review.
7:07 p.m.: Gates, thankfully, back onstage for another demo. Wait, what’s this. Another Surface demo?! Didn’t we see this last year? Yes, we did–but given by Steve Ballmer, not Gates. Gates using Microsoft’s Surface multitouch computer to demo a snowboard-design service.
7:05 p.m.: The big achievement being touted here seems to be the connection between these services and the single log-on. As Dan Aykroyd might say: Isn’t that AMAZING?
7:04 p.m.: Windows Live Photo Gallery … in browser photo editing, sharing (via email or Flickr) and exporting to blog. Bor-ing. They would have been better off playing the farewell video again. That ‘Bib Pimpin’ segment was comedy gold.
7:02 p.m.: First up: Windows Live Calendar now with … wait for it … multiple calendar overlays (YAY! sigh…)
But wait, there’s more … Windows Live Events, an invitation/event organizing service. They really should have called it Windows Live eVites …)
7 p.m.: Gates brings Mika Krammer, a director of product management for Windows, onstage to demo some new features of Windows Live.
6:59 p.m.: And here comes the product line-up overview: Windows Vista, Windows Live, Windows Mobile ….
6:58 p.m.: A key building block of the second digital decade, the centerpiece building block will be. … (drum roll, please) … Microsoft Windows!
6:56 p.m.: “Devices will know our context and location,” Gates continues. There will be new modes of interaction and natural interfaces. “We’re very interested in simpler ways of navigating our technology.” If he were going to announce Microsoft Bob 2.0, now would be the perfect time to do it. Nope. Ah, well. “The software industry will build these new modes of interaction–touch, voice, gesture–into the software.”
6:55 p.m.: And now for a few predictions. “In the future Microsoft products and services will run on the desktop and in the cloud,” he says. Would that be the cloud with all the Google AdWords all over it? “And 3-D environments will exist for Web experiences, high-quality video and audio in a pervasive way.” Make way for Third Life …
“Devices and services will be connected.” As an example, Gates talks about photos automatically being uploaded to digital-memory application.
6:54 p.m.: Gates back onstage discussing the coming transition in leadership at Microsoft when he will step down from his day-to-day role as the company’s chairman. He says Microsoft is aligned well for success with Steve Ballmer, Ray Ozzie and others.
Moving on … “The second digital decade heralds the following: high definition experience is everywhere.”
6:52 p.m.: Video ends to thunderous applause. UPDATE: Here’s the video:

6:50 p.m.: Footage of Gates cleaning out desk, taking box of office supplies to his Ford Focus. Ford Focus–now that’s funny.
Cut to Peter Jennings: “Let’s face it, all of us here at NBC News will miss reporting on this brilliant, powerful, sexy man who just doesn’t like to pay more than $7 on a haircut.”
6:49 p.m.: Gates calls Jon Stewart and asks about a co-anchor job. Stewart turns him down.
Gates calls Hillary Clinton. She turns him down as a running mate, so he calls Obama:
Gates: It’s Bill.
Obama: Bill Shatner?
Gates: No, Bill!
Obama: Bill Clinton?
6:48 p.m.: Steven Spielberg reviews Gates’s audition reel (”X-Men” and “Matrix” re-enactments; Gates in Wolverine get-up, Gates and Ballmer in Matrix-style black trench coats) and denies him a part in his next film.
6:47 p.m.: Footage of Gates calling Bono in the middle of a U2 concert. Gates plays guitar riff on “Guitar Hero” for Bono. Bono tells him there’s no place for him in U2. Which is OK, I’m sure, since there’s certainly no place for Bono at Microsoft.
6:46 p.m.: My God … Gates in recording studio with Jay-Z… Holy … Gates singing “Big Pimpin’.” Wild laughter and applause. “It was great,” Jay-Z tells Gates, before turning to the camera and muttering, “not so much.”
6:45 p.m.: Various Microsoft execs talking about Gates. Clip of Gates in office playing with action figures: “Never doubt the power of software.” Laughter.
Quickly followed by Gates in gym working out with Matthew McConaughey, who doesn’t really strike you as a Windows user.
6:44 p.m.: “This is my last keynote. Come July, it will be the first time I won’t be working at Microsoft since I was 17.” And here comes the inevitable farewell video ….
6:42 p.m.: He mentions the progression of digital entertainment–music, movies, photos. The trend is clear: all media and entertainment will be software driven in the second digital decade. And in the third, it will all be driven by Microsoft Windows! Muahahahahaha. Kidding … Moving on … “I’ll soon step down as chairman.”
6:40 p.m.: Gates finally takes the stage. He recalls his first keynote in 1994, a time when Windows ‘95 was first coming together. “It was the beginning of the first digital decade.” Ah yes, “The Digital Decade.”
6:39 p.m.: Here comes another silly video, this one set to “Believe in Magic,” featuring people from all walks of life extraordinarily happy to be using Microsoft products. They look like they’re all on Ecstasy. And it’s probably safe to say that nobody has ever looked like that while using a Microsoft product.
6:35 p.m.: Shapiro says Gates has given 10 CES keynotes, eight consecutively. He’s spoken at CES 11 times. Guess he must be the Guinness World Record holder. How ’bout that, huh?
6:33 p.m.: And here comes Gates. Wait–that’s not Gates. It’s Consumer Electronics Association President Gary Shapiro. OH RAPTURE! Disappointed applause. “In my opinion these are the best four days of the year,” says Shapiro. (Tell that to Steve Jobs next week.)
6:30 p.m.: Silly CES promo video… Correction: advertisement.
6:29 p.m.: Getting started right on time. Guess Jim Allchin and the Vista development team didn’t do Gates’s makeup this time around. Lights dim….
6:25 p.m.: In a few moments, Bill Gates, the Frank Sinatra of the Dat(a) Pack (Steve Jobs presumably in the Dean Martin role), will deliver his 11th Consumer Electronics Show keynote–and by many projections his last.
6:00 p.m.: The ballroom of the Venetian Resort Hotel Casino is pretty much packed, and like most things in Las Vegas it’s BIG. But it has to be the worst pre-keynote music EVER: from 1982 video game soundtrack to passed-out-after-the-rave techno to European disco to new wave. Really covering all the genres. At this rate, Bill Gates could take the stage to the theme from “The Dukes of Hazzard” or the “Annie” soundtrack.

… And get hooked on it, and then watch it throughout the fall season–either on ad-supported network TV or as a paid download from the iTunes store. Which doesn’t sound like such a bad strategy when you think about it. Certainly, it’s far more appealing than NBC Universal’s hilariously ill-conceived download service and an interesting alternative to ABC’s, which will put full-length prime-time shows on AOL one day after they air on broadcast television.

That said, all three networks’ strategies are problematic in that they require the audience to access programming in disparate ways. Even traditional broadcast TV, as antiquated as it is, doesn’t force viewers to watch different networks on different systems. “The consumer is probably becoming confused,” notes 24/7 Wall St.’s Douglas A. McIntyre. “He will need to go to AOL to watch ABC. CBS programming is on the iPod. NBC will be doing direct downloads from its own Web site. NBC and News Corp. are starting a joint online venture called Hulu. TV and film will also be available on the Amazon Unbox. Wal-Mart has started a video download service. The large retailer will charge for its content. NetFlix is also planning an online movie service. Viewers will be better off getting their TV and movies from illegal file-sharing sites. At least all of the content is available from one source.”

ABC, which reportedly spent a fair sum of money on the island’s creation, plans to spend a bit more recreating it–and securing against future attacks. “When we opened ABC Island we knew that many challenges would present themselves and that by being the first Australian media organization to venture into the world, we were entering uncharted territory,” said Abigail Thomas, head of strategic development at ABC Innovation. “We will now be looking closely at security measures, investigating how the hackers breached the existing security and, of course, making changes to protect the island’s future development.”

I’m not sure that the driving reason to get a DVR in the first place is just to skip commercials. I don’t fundamentally believe that. People can understand in order to have convenience and on-demand (options), that you can’t skip commercials.”

– ABC President of Advertising Sales Mike Shaw, July 2006

Looks like Walt Disney has finally come up with a theory to explain plummeting ratings at ABC and ESPN–as well as a plan to fix them. The company’s two big TV networks have struck a deal with Cox Communications to offer free on-demand broadcast of hit shows and sporting events, as long as Cox disables its fast-forward feature that lets viewers skip advertisements.

To Disney, the price of free entertainment is suffering through inescapable advertising, and its DVR-empowered viewership hasn’t been holding up its part of the deal. And so, beginning this fall, Cox will offer episodes of four ABC prime-time series, along with select ESPN on ABC college football games in the FreeZone section of its on-demand service. They will be available the day after their original broadcast, and Cox will disable its on-demand fast-forward option.

Will viewers accustomed to fast-forwarding through advertisements watch on-demand programming with unavoidable ads? And, more to the point, if they so clearly dislike watching advertisements, why would they watch programming like this at all? Why wouldn’t they use their DVRs to record the same shows as they air live and use that device’s fast-forward function to skip the ads? Cox President Pat Esser says viewers will understand the transaction it’s proposing. “People want their content, and they want it for free, but I think they realize that there is a business model to keep intact for them to get it that way,” he told The Wall Street Journal.

We’ll see, I guess. But I hope for Esser’s sake that Cox and other cable operators like it are investigating other ways of solving this problem. Like figuring out how to take advantage of the attention fast-forwarding requires. Because while DVR users often fast-forward through commercials, the very act of paying attention to what they’re forwarding through vastly increases ad recall. “There’s a pretty good basis for thinking that the active attention required to fast-forward could reinforce brand awareness,” said Kenneth Wilbur, associate professor of marketing at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “There can be a real effect on purchasing behavior due to the attention required. … You could see extensive changes coming to creative formats and a great deal of research into how creative can best be adapted to fast-forwarding.”