All Things Digital

The Apple rumor mill has such a hair trigger, that even passing mention of an unreleased product can set it into yammering motion. As happened today after Digg founder Kevin Rose offered up some purported insider information about the focus of Apple’s “Let’s Rock” media event in San Francisco next Tuesday. If Rose is correct–and his record on handicapping Apple (AAPL) announcements is decidedly mixed–Apple will announce updates to its entire iPod line, including the rumored “tall” iPod Nano. Not exactly a tough call considering that XSKN is already selling cases for them and purported photos of the device — like the one below — are showing up on Alibaba.

More interestingly though, Rose says that Apple will uncrate iTunes 8, the first major overhaul of the software since iTunes 7 launched two years ago. Rose claims that iTunes 8 will boast some significant enhancements, among them HD-quality TV show downloads, a new “grid view” browsing feature and a playlist recommendation engine called Genius. “iTunes 8 includes Genius, which makes playlists from songs in your library that go great together,” Rose writes. “Genius also includes Genius sidebar, which recommends music from the iTunes Store that you don’t already have.”

Notably absent from Rose’s list of new features: iTunes Unlimited–the $129-a-year all-you-can-eat subscription service that Apple has been rumored to be considering for some time now.

Like all such reports, Rose’s should be taken with a grain of salt, if not an entire salt lick. Rose was, after all, the guy who erroneously claimed Apple’s first iPhone would feature a slide-out keyboard, dual batteries and CDMA, and GSM support.

For a while there, it looked like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was really going to take Intel (INTC) to the mat, didn’t it? But not lately. After seven consecutive quarterly losses, AMD shares fell to a six-year low last month, down 50 percent in the past year. Good thing, then, that the company has chosen to sell off its digital television business, which these days is more of a distraction than anything else. This morning, the struggling chipmaker said Broadcom (BRCM) has agreed to buy its TV unit for $192.8 million.

For AMD, the sale frees it of a business that’s been a drain on capital expenses and, in the words of CEO Dirk Meyer, will make the company “leaner and more focused” while it seeks to “create a business model to deliver sustainable profitability.” For Broadcom it’s an easy way to immediately scale its DTV business from low-end to mid-range to high-end interactive platforms and panel processors.

“What has become of the Sony known for its technology,” Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister and former Sony employee Akira Amari asked in October of 2006. “I hope it will solve its problems soon to quickly recover its brand image reputed for technological prowess.”

If Amari can recall when that was Sony’s image, he has a good memory. Because Sony (SNE) lost its dominant position in consumer electronics to rivals in Japan, South Korea and the U.S. long ago and has yet to regain it.

But it will soon, according to company CEO Howard Stringer, who announced today a new growth strategy designed to re-establish its global supremacy. Stringer’s plan: to peddle software and video-downloading services, not just hardware. And to bind them together over the Internet. “Our mission is simply to be the leading global provider of networked consumer electronics and entertainment,” Stringer said at a news conference.

To that end, Sony will soon announce a movie download service for its PlayStation 3 game console. And this fall it will begin broadcasting films and television shows directly to its Bravia TVs via the Internet. And if all goes according to plan, 90% of Sony’s devices will wirelessly connect to the Net by March 2011. Perhaps even Rolly, Sony’s dancing iPod killer …

Said Stringer, “This is not your father’s Sony.”

Hope not. Because my father’s Sony is Apple (AAPL).

If the old media advertising economy is in the toilet, then its new media counterpart is sitting atop it.

According to figures compiled by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, spending on Internet advertising in 2007 rose to $21.2 billion, up 26% from the prior year. That’s a record high and one that exceeds the $20.9 billion spent on print, radio, outdoor and cable TV.

Unsurprisingly, keyword search, Google’s (GOOG) cash-cow ranch, generated the most revenue and claimed the largest market share–41%. Display advertising followed with 34%, classifieds at 16%.

(Image Credit: Tyler Jordan, eVisibility Insider)

Steve Jobs has apparently accepted the unacceptable: Things don’t always go Steve’s way. The mercurial Apple (AAPL) CEO has been notoriously intransigent when it comes to matters of variable pricing on iTunes, arguing that charging higher prices for more popular content might backfire, sending customers off to the file-sharing networks. Now, as predicted yesterday, he appears to have reconsidered that stance, at least when it comes to HBO’s Emmy Award-winning programming.

This morning, Apple’s U.S. iTunes Store began offering six HBO series: “The Wire,” “Flight of the Conchords,” “Sex and the City,” “The Sopranos,” “Rome” and “Deadwood.” The first three are priced at iTunes’ standard rate of $1.99 per episode. The second three are $2.99 each, marking the first time Apple has allowed variable pricing for TV shows in the U.S.

Quite a coup for HBO (TWX), especially given some of the other concessions it was able to win from Apple: HBO programs won’t be offered for purchase on iTunes until they hit the DVD window, and new episodes of series won’t be available until months after their TV premiere.

Wow. Blockbuster is completely out of ideas, isn’t it? This morning the foundering movie rental chain went public with its bid to acquire ailing retail consumer-electronics chain Circuit City.

In a Feb. 17 letter to Circuit City CEO Philip Schoonover, Blockbuster (BBI) offered to pay more than $1 billion for the chain. But, to date, Circuit City (CC) hasn’t fulfilled a request for due diligence necessary to make the bid definitive.

Why? In a conference call today, Blockbuster chief exec Jim Keyes described the offer as “simply too attractive to ignore.” But it seems Circuit City also thinks the offer might be too attractive for Blockbuster to finance. “… To date Blockbuster has been unable to satisfy Circuit City and its advisers that Blockbuster’s proposal could be financed,” the electronics retailer said in a statement. “In particular, Blockbuster’s proposal appears to contemplate a rights offering of unprecedented size relative to the issuing company’s market capitalization and at a price that is at a significant premium to Blockbuster’s current market price.”

Well, yes, there is that. And, of course, there are other issues as well. Like what, exactly, are the synergies between a foundering movie rental chain and a foundering electronics retailer–aside from the fact that they’re both, you know, foundering? If it’s Blockbuster rental kiosks in Circuit City stores, the alliance would seem doomed to failure. Wait. It is Blockbuster rental kiosks in Circuit City stores?

To be fair, Keyes says digital content is important too, and he seems convinced that Circuit City will provide Blockbuster with the infrastructure it needs to distribute video to TVs and mobile devices. “What this combination provides is the ultimate distribution channel for [digital] content,” he said this morning. “It’s not necessarily downloading content to the PC that will ultimately capture the consumer’s imagination. It’s the opportunity to get that content on your TV and your mobile device that is a game-changing opportunity.”

A game-changing opportunity for Apple (AAPL), maybe. But for a foundering, outdated video-rental outfit?

What do you do when you’ve just posted a $29.5 billion loss and you expect to lose 1.2 million customers this quarter, as many as you lost in all of 2007? Well, if you’re Sprint (S), you announce a $99.99 unlimited calling and data services plan.

This morning the nation’s third-largest wireless carrier recorded a massive fourth-quarter loss, suspended its dividend program for the ”foreseeable future,” borrowed $2.5 billion to improve its “financial flexibility” and announced a shiny, new discount service plan presumably intended to make everyone forget about its deteriorating business. Sprint’s ”Simply Everything” plan offers unlimited “voice, data, text, email, Web surfing, Sprint TV, Sprint Music, GPS navigation, Direct Connect and Group Connect” for $99.99 a month.

Not bad for a package of services for which customers have typically paid a premium. Trouble is, it’s relatively close to the $99 price point plans introduced by Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile earlier this year. Granted, Sprint’s plan is the only one that includes data right now, but it likely won’t be for long. Certainly, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse doesn’t see it as a cure-all for Sprint’s problems. “I want to make it clear that it’s not a silver bullet,” he said during a conference call with analysts. “But it’s a very important piece. Our business is not performing well right now. We are working aggressively to turn this around, but our financial performance will not improve overnight.”

I’m not so sure that the whole issue really is one of commercial avoidance. It really is a matter of convenience–so you don’t miss your favorite show. And quite frankly, we’re just training a new generation of viewers to skip commercials because they can. I’m not sure that the driving reason to get a DVR in the first place is just to skip commercials. I don’t fundamentally believe that. People can understand in order to have convenience and on-demand [options], that you can’t skip commercials.”

–ABC President of Advertising Sales Mike Shaw, July 2006

Leave it to ABC to devise a service that offers all the convenience of video-on-demand with all the annoyance and vapidity of broadcast TV in one joyless package. This morning the network and its affiliates announced fast-forward-disabled video on demand, which prevents viewers from bypassing commercials.

Designed to combat the now nearly ubiquitous DVR, the service offers viewers the chance to watch ABC shows like “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives” for free, at any time they choose, as long as they’re willing to suffer through the advertisements that accompany them. And just to make sure that they do, participating affiliates will disable their video-on-demand services’ fast-forwarding capability. “This does counter the DVR,” Anne Sweeney, the president of the Disney-ABC television group (DIS), told the New York Times. “You don’t need TiVo if you have fast-forward-disabled video on demand. It gives you the same opportunity to catch up to your favorite shows.”

And your not-so-favorite commercials. Which would seem to make it about as uncompelling a proposition as … well, as over-the-air broadcast TV. But ABC, which has been testing the service with Cox Communications in Orange County, Calif., insists it’s got an audience. The company says 93% of users it surveyed said they would be willing to give up the fast-forwarding option and watch the commercials if they were given VOD programming for free.

So perhaps the 30-second TV ad has a few more years left in it still. But only a few. According to a study by the Association of National Advertisers and Forrester Research, 62% of marketers believe TV advertising has become less effective in the past few years. And 87% said they plan to increase their online ad spending this year, while many said they will cut their TV ad buys substantially when DVR penetration tops 50%.

“Comcast 3.0.” That was the subject of Comcast CEO Brian Roberts keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show today. And what is “Comcast 3.0?” Well, like Web 2.0 and 3.0, it’s a marketing term–in Comcast’s case, one for its transformation from “broadband” provider to a “wideband” provider.

In 2008, said Roberts, Comcast will begin upgrading its network to offer significantly faster download speeds. “Wideband takes four channels and bonds them together and will enable speeds to go up from 12 to 16 megabits a second to over 100 megabits a second,” he explained. The technology will be rolled out to “millions” by the end of this year, with more to come–”if it’s as popular as we expect,” he added.

And it undoubtedly will be. At speeds like that, Roberts noted, you could download an HD copy of “Batman Begins” in about four minutes. “Superfast movie downloads are only the beginning,” Roberts said. “This will open a whole new world of Web-based innovation.”

A few other points worth noting:

• Roberts also announced “Project Infinity,” an effort to exponentially expand its video-on-demand programming. “Comcast will put 1,000 HD choices in every Comcast HD home by the end of the year,” Roberts said. “What satellite says they’ll offer pales in comparison.”

• Comcast is now the country’s fourth largest residential phone provider.
• Finally, he pitched Fancast.com, a new online-entertainment portal that gathers film, TV and videos scattered across the Internet in one place. “It’s the content-hungry consumer’s dream,” Roberts said. “With user-generated content, there’s the possibility of millions of choices. You’ll never want to get off the couch.”

It appears there may be a bit of a boxing match shaping up between Apple and Netflix. Amid reports that Apple has inked a video-on-demand deal with Twentieth Century Fox, Netflix has announced plans to develop a set-top box that will give consumers the ability to stream movies directly from the Internet to HDTVs. The DVD-by-mail pioneer has enlisted South Korean manufacturer LG Electronics to build a set-top box that will extend its Watch Instantly online movie-delivery service from the PC to the TV. Netflix plans to offer the service–expected to roll out in the fall–for free to its subscribers and the box for a price that’s yet to be announced.

“We think we have solved the real fundamental problem, which has been that choosing movies on a television has been extremely challenging,” Netflix CEO Reed Hastings told the New York Times. “Video-on-demand companies worked at it for a long time, but choosing movies on the TV just doesn’t have the power of the Web. We want to be integrated on every Internet-connected device, game system, high-definition DVD player and dedicated Internet set-top box. Eventually, as TVs have wireless connectivity built into them, we’ll integrate right into the television.”

A compelling vision of Netflix’s future and one that may sound the death knell for Blockbuster, Amazon’s Unbox and Vudu as well. Or perhaps not. Certainly, this little bit of legalese at the tail-end of the press release announcing the services belies Hastings’s optimism just a wee bit.

This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding the development of a set-top box for delivery of content over the Internet to television sets, the delivery of a compelling online home entertainment service, Netflix’s strategy and positioning in online delivery of content, and the future of Internet to the television. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and events to differ, including, without limitation; the risk that the development of the set-top box or its associated online delivery service may not meet technical requirements, consumer expectations, or otherwise be implemented by the parties; that certain studios will not grant either of the parties necessary rights or otherwise impose limitations on such rights that might impede implementation or hamper consumer adoption; Netflix’s ability to create other partnership opportunities for the delivery of digital content to the television; and possible technological or content licensing impediments.”