Wednesday, May 7, 2008
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Those on-again, off-again talks between Sprint (S) and Clearwire (CLWR)? They’re on again. In fact, they’re so on that they’re already over. This morning the two companies announced a $14.5 billion multi-player joint venture backed by cable operators Comcast and Time Warner as well as Intel and Google.
The alliance will see the four cable and tech companies investing $3.2 billion in the nationwide wireless network that Sprint and Clearwire have been struggling–with profound unsuccess–to roll out. Comcast (CMCSA) will contribute $1.05 billion, Time Warner Cable (TWX) $500 million. Intel (INTC) will invest $1 billion, Google (GOOG) about $500 million. The new venture will be majority owned by Sprint, but it will take the Clearwire name and be run largely by Clearwire execs, among them cellular industry pioneer Craig McCaw.
For the cablecos, which have yet to settle on a clear wireless strategy, the deal is a quick and dirty way to establish the high-speed wireless network they need to compete with telcos like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). For Sprint and Clearwire, it’s a chance to make their non-starter of a WiMax network viable and something happy to talk about when conversation turns to Sprint’s stock price, which has fallen nearly 60% over the past 12 months.
That said, the deal is not without its problems–top among them WiMax itself. As Craig Moffett, an analyst with Bernstein Research, explained in a note to clients earlier this year, the 2.5 GHz spectrum upon which Sprint and Clearwire are building their network isn’t nearly as good as the spectrum Verizon and AT&T just purchased in the FCC’s 700 MHz auction. “Serious questions remain about penetration through walls and windows,” Moffett explained. “Elsewhere in the world, operators have also raised questions about WiMax’s real-world bandwidth, latency and non-line-of-site coverage. How competitive the offering would be versus Verizon’s or AT&T’s planned LTE broadband service therefore remains to be seen.”
That it does–though there have been some indications that it may not be quite up to par. Speaking at an international WiMax conference in Bangkok in March, Garth Freeman, CEO of Buzz Broadband, Australia’s first WiMax operator, described the technology variously as a “disaster,” “miserable failure,” and a standard “mired in opportunistic hype.”
So will that prove true for Clearwire as well? We won’t know for some time. Building out a massive network like this will take some doing. “We’ll likely to see early trials in 2010, but a full-fledged build-out will take longer,” Clearwire CEO Benjamin Wolff said during a conference call this morning. “Building faster is a matter of logistics. The build plan we’ve laid out will be one of the largest and fastest build-outs ever done. We have the capability to do it, but it’s a massive undertaking.”
To some, Sprint’s longstanding reputation for lousy customer service, poor network coverage, high churn and Keystone Kops-style management disorganization might be a bit–how can I put this delicately–off-putting. The beleaguered company’s subscriber numbers are dropping like failed calls, as are its shares. Sprint’s stock price has fallen nearly 60% over the past 12 months. It posted a $29.6 billion loss for 2007 and has had its debt rating cut to junk by Standard & Poor’s.
Not the most attractive of acquisition targets. But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, in this case T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom (DT) which is reportedly considering a bid for the wireless outfit, whose worsening losses have left it ripe for a buyout. By swallowing Sprint (S), DT could gain some spectrum in the States and stave off a price war between the mobile carriers, or so the “thinking” goes.
Thing is, an acquisition of Sprint entails an acquisition of Sprint’s problems–and there are many. It would also require DT, which operates a GSM/EDGE network, to manage Sprint’s 3G CDMA network and Nextel’s legacy iDEN system. That’s three different network standards. And then there’s Sprint’s WiMax operation, XHOM, to deal with. That’s the makings of a real Greek tragedy of a business story right there. Said Avian Securities analyst Matthew Thornton, “While the differing network technology standard does not necessarily eliminate the possibility of a deal, it does significantly raise the costs and complexity of the combination.”
Michael Nelson, an analyst at Stanford Group, agreed. “You really cannot underestimate the level of complexity that that entails,” he told Bloomberg. “There is a significant amount of integration risk.”
Turns out Apple (AAPL) isn’t the only company whose smart phones are in short supply this spring. According to Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt, Research in Motion (RIMM) and Palm (PALM) are suffering shortages as well.
In a research note, McCourt says RIM’s BlackBerry Pearl is pretty tough to find these days–online and off. And Palm’s Treo 755p has disappeared from Sprint’s shelves entirely. Customers looking for one must either settle for the Palm Centro or wait until the company releases the next iteration of the Treo 755p or the Treo 800w.
As McCourt notes, shortages like these are bad news for RIM and awful news for the downtrodden Palm. “The abrupt disappearance of the Treo 755p at Sprint is somewhat concerning,” observes McCourt. “This product was selling reasonably well and, although we expect its contribution to be marginal following the 800w’s launch this summer, the 755p’s absence at Sprint clearly means Palm is foregoing some near-term sales opportunities.”
It’s worth noting here as well that Apple is still dealing with a pretty lean inventory of iPhones. McCourt says about half of the Apple stores he contacted had the device in stock. Said McCourt, “While we believe this is related to a product transition, current iPhone shortages are almost certainly causing some degree of missed sales opportunities.”
What do you do when you’ve just posted a $29.5 billion loss and you expect to lose 1.2 million customers this quarter, as many as you lost in all of 2007? Well, if you’re Sprint (S), you announce a $99.99 unlimited calling and data services plan.
This morning the nation’s third-largest wireless carrier recorded a massive fourth-quarter loss, suspended its dividend program for the ”foreseeable future,” borrowed $2.5 billion to improve its “financial flexibility” and announced a shiny, new discount service plan presumably intended to make everyone forget about its deteriorating business. Sprint’s ”Simply Everything” plan offers unlimited “voice, data, text, email, Web surfing, Sprint TV, Sprint Music, GPS navigation, Direct Connect and Group Connect” for $99.99 a month.
Not bad for a package of services for which customers have typically paid a premium. Trouble is, it’s relatively close to the $99 price point plans introduced by Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile earlier this year. Granted, Sprint’s plan is the only one that includes data right now, but it likely won’t be for long. Certainly, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse doesn’t see it as a cure-all for Sprint’s problems. “I want to make it clear that it’s not a silver bullet,” he said during a conference call with analysts. “But it’s a very important piece. Our business is not performing well right now. We are working aggressively to turn this around, but our financial performance will not improve overnight.”
We are now delivering the promise of WiMAX–high-speed, cost-effective wireless broadband access–to businesses and consumers in cities and suburbs around the world.”
– Scott Richardson, general manager of Intel’s Wireless Broadband division, gets a little ahead of himself in November 2005.
Sprint (S) appears to be rethinking its decision to pull the plug on its WiMax joint venture with Clearwire (CLWR) last fall. Word on the street has it that the two companies are finalizing a partnership to build a nationwide mobile broadband network based on the technology. A joint venture between the two could be announced in a matter of days. And if it is, it may involve a $2 billion cash investment from Intel (INTC).
As it well should. It was Intel, after all, that called WiMax “the most important thing since the Internet itself.” Course, it might as well have said the same thing about time travel, because neither are exactly widely available today.
Sprint Nextel is making good on its pledge last week to cut 4,000 employees, and it’s doing it at “Sprint Speed.”
This morning the long-suffering wireless carrier announced some “key leadership changes,” sacking three top executives. Leaving are Chief Financial Officer Paul Saleh, Chief Marketing Officer Tim Kelly, and Mark Angelino, president of Sprint’s sales and distribution unit.
Their last day is tomorrow. Interim replacements will serve in their stead until the company appoints permanent ones. “I want to thank each of these individual leaders for their dedication and contributions to Sprint Nextel,” Dan Hesse, Sprint’s president and CEO, said in a statement. “I wish them all the best in their future endeavors.”
Sprint Nextel ended its two-month search for a new chief executive today, offering Dan Hesse ousted CEO Gary Forsee’s old office.
Hesse was formerly the CEO of Embarq, a local telco that Sprint spun off last year, and once ran AT&T’s mobile-phone business, so he’s certainly got the chops for the job. “His history in wireless is impeccable,” said IAG Research analyst Roger Entner. “He is certainly the best person that is currently available. Dan did a miraculous job at AT&T Wireless. If they would have kept him on as CEO, the wireless industry would look very different. AT&T would have remained a force to be reckoned with, rather than a company that just sort of withered away.”
Perhaps. Question is, can Hesse work similar miracles at Sprint, where operational troubles, falling subscriber numbers and declining profits are dragging the company deep into the mud.
Note: John Paczkowski is on vacation and won’t be writing or posting videos until he returns on Monday.
To keep you abreast of tech news while he’s away, we’re compiling a daily digest of 10 must-read tech stories. Our Tech 10 appears below.
Posted by Associate Editor John Sullivan.
John Paczkowski has been poking fun at the tech industry and the personalities that drive it since 1997. From 1999 to 2007, he wrote the award-winning tech news Web log Good Morning Silicon Valley for the San Jose Mercury News, Silicon Valley's daily newspaper.
Here is a statement of my ethics and coverage policies. It is more than most of you want to know, but, in the age of suspicion of the media, I am laying it all out.
3. Among those earning 10-figure incomes, Mr. Soros’s total annual compensation is greater than Mr. Falcone’s. Mr. Falcone’s is greater than Mr. Griffin’s. Mr. Griffin’s is smaller than Mr. Soros’s, and Mr. Paulson’s is greater than Mr. Soros’s. In descending order, list the men by the respective hotness of their trophy wives.
Dear Mr. Prince: It’s been three days since you delivered your keynote address, “When Doves Cry,” to our organization, the American Ornithological Society.
I’ll have the “J&J fresh intestine pot,” a side of “cowboy leg” and the “carbon burns black bowel” to go, please.
Starring Stephen Colbert and Steve Carell
… in CSS
Lenovo has its way with Apple’s MacBook Air ads
If you really want to hear about it, the first thing you’ll probably want to know is where my cemetery plot is, and what my lousy adulthood was like …
googletimewarner.com? googlepoo.com?
Apparently, it predates the Internet.
Google …No. … Google. No. … Google …No.