All Things Digital

If the old media advertising economy is in the toilet, then its new media counterpart is sitting atop it.

According to figures compiled by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, spending on Internet advertising in 2007 rose to $21.2 billion, up 26% from the prior year. That’s a record high and one that exceeds the $20.9 billion spent on print, radio, outdoor and cable TV.

Unsurprisingly, keyword search, Google’s (GOOG) cash-cow ranch, generated the most revenue and claimed the largest market share–41%. Display advertising followed with 34%, classifieds at 16%.

(Image Credit: Tyler Jordan, eVisibility Insider)

Ask.com (IACI), the little search engine that can’t, but someday hopes to, is committed to becoming a viable competitor in a market overwhelmingly dominated by Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO).

It has not, as CEO Jim Safka vehemently points out in an interview with Forbes today, ceded the search battle to anyone. “It’s horses–t,” he told Forbes.com. “It’s categorically not true. We’re more committed to our algorithm and engineers than ever. While Yahoo and Microsoft are paralyzed by trying to figure out what’s happening to their companies, we’re trying to figure out what’s next in search. You’re going to see more innovation coming out of Ask then ever before.”

The first evidence of that “innovation”? Ask’s acquisition of that paragon of innovation Lexico Publishing Group LLC, the owner of Dictionary.com, Thesaurus.com and Reference.com. With Lexico’s properties in its pocket, Ask expects to expand its audience to more than 145 million unique monthly users–an increase that the company claims would make it the ninth-largest Web property globally. Whether the company means among all users or just married women primarily living in the South and the Midwest remains to be seen …

We see little to stop Google from reaching 70% market share eventually; the question, really, comes down to, ‘How long could it take?’ ”

–RBC Capital Markets analyst Jordan Rohan, March 2006

Not long at all, really.

They’re not the competition; they’re the environment in which you compete. The IT industry used to say that about IBM, but today the adage seems equally applicable to Google (GOOG), which dominates the search market just as IBM (IBM) once dominated the computer industry.

According to new metrics from Hitwise, Google’s share of the U.S. Internet search market grew to 67.9%–a 4% increase year-over-year. Google’s growth apparently came at the expense of rivals Yahoo and Microsoft. Though it claimed the second-largest share of the search market, Yahoo (YHOO) slipped to 20.28% from the 20.73% share it held a year ago. Microsoft’s (MSFT) Live Search, ranked third behind Yahoo, fell to 6.26% from 7.77% in that same period.

Seems the two companies’ recent efforts to differentiate their search offerings from Google’s haven’t done much to boost their respective market shares. Nor will they ever if the Google juggernaut continues as it has. As Credit Suisse analyst Heath Terry once noted, search is a natural monopoly business and there’s a decent chance that over time, Google will continue to gain share until it’s claimed most of the market.

And that may happen sooner than we think. Google’s closing in on 70% market share already. “By this time next year,” Silicon Alley Insider’s Henry Blodget writes, “Google’s search business will be larger and more profitable than the most profitable and legendary monopoly in history–Microsoft Windows.”

Who says Google (GOOG) is hoarding Silicon Valley’s tech talent? In August of 2007, Gideon Yu, a Valley train-hopper with stints at Yahoo (YHOO) and then YouTube, resigned from his position at the video-sharing site shortly after it was acquired by the search engine to become CFO of Facebook. A few months later, Benjamin “bling” Ling, described as one of “Larry and Sergey’s golden boys,” left Google to run Facebook’s platform program. Then this past March, Sheryl Sandberg, Google’s vice president of global online sales and operations, bailed to join the social network as chief operating officer. Ethan Beard, Google’s director of social media, followed shortly after, taking a job as Facebook’s director of business development.

Now another prominent Googler has train-hopped to the popular social-networking company as well. As first reported by BoomTown, Elliot Schrage, vice president of global communications and public affairs at Google, is leaving the search sovereign to become Facebook’s vice president of communications and public policy.

“[Elliot Schrage] will be responsible for developing the key messages we want people to understand about our products, our business and the growing global importance of social networking and what we do,” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in an email to employees announcing the hire. “The goal here is to help people understand how the Internet can strengthen people’s relationships. Elliot will direct our efforts to work with users, media, governments and other entities around the world to ensure that Facebook’s policies are transparent, responsive, effective and are recognized as being those things. … This is a really important role for us and one that we’ve been trying to find the right person for a while. Elliot’s role will be critical to helping us scale based on our culture that values transparency, openness and honest internal communications.”

“Elliot’s role will be critical to helping us scale based on our culture that values transparency, openness, and honest internal communications”?

Clearly, Zuckerberg meant “build from the ground up a culture that values transparency, openness and honest internal communications.” Because it’s only been about six months since the Beacon fiasco, which demonstrated how grievously the company was lacking in those qualities (see “DiaperFetishFactory.com Is Sending a Story to Your Profile,” “Epicurious Has Added a Potential Privacy Violation to Your Facebook Profile,” “Fiascobook,” and “Fiascobook, Redux“).

Perhaps if Facebook recruits enough former Googlers, it too will be able to lay claim to a silly informal motto like “Don’t Be Evil.”

Here’s the full text of Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer’s letter to Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang.

Mr. Jerry Yang
CEO and Chief Yahoo
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Jerry:

After over three months, we have reached the conclusion of the process regarding a possible combination of Microsoft and Yahoo.

I first want to convey my personal thanks to you, your management team and Yahoo’s Board of Directors for your consideration of our proposal. I appreciate the time and attention all of you have given to this matter, and I especially appreciate the time that you have invested personally. I feel that our discussions this week have been particularly useful, providing me for the first time with real clarity on what is and is not possible.

I am disappointed that Yahoo has not moved toward accepting our offer. I first called you with our offer on Jan. 31 because I believed that a combination of our two companies would have created real value for our respective shareholders and would have provided consumers, publishers and advertisers with greater innovation and choice in the marketplace. Our decision to offer a 62% premium at that time reflected the strength of these convictions.

In our conversations this week, we conveyed our willingness to raise our offer to $33 per share, reflecting again our belief in this collective opportunity. This increase would have added approximately another $5 billion of value to your shareholders, compared to the current value of our initial offer. It also would have reflected a premium of over 70% compared to the price at which your stock closed on Jan. 31. Yet it has proven insufficient, as your final position insisted on Microsoft paying yet another $5 billion or more, or at least another $4 per share above our $33.00 offer.

Read more »

Microsoft (MSFT) may launch a hostile bid for Yahoo as early as today. That’s the big news this morning from those mysterious “people familiar with the situation” who are quick to note, as they always are, that the “situation” is still fluid and Microsoft may also drop the bid entirely or sweeten it a bit.

Meanwhile, “people familiar with the matter” say that Yahoo (YHOO) may launch something in the next few days as well: a deal to carry search advertisements from Google (GOOG) alongside Yahoo search results. Such a deal would likely not be the sort of broad pact over which Microsoft has preemptively cried foul, but a non-exclusive arrangement open to the companies’ competitors as well. Under its terms, a real-time auction system would be used to select the most lucrative ads for a given search query from among those sold by Yahoo and Google. Microsoft too, if it were willing to participate.

If power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely, what does absolute information awareness do?

That’s a good question to ask in light of FBI Director Robert Mueller’s call for “omnibus” Internet surveillance. In testimony to the Judiciary Committee of the House of Representatives on Wednesday, Mueller suggested legislation be passed that would give the bureau the right to monitor the Internet at the backbone level.

Said Mueller: “I think legislation has to be developed that balances on one hand, the privacy rights of the individual who are receiving the information, but on the other hand, given the technology, the necessity of having some omnibus search capability utilizing filters that would identify the illegal activity as it comes through and give us the ability to preempt that illegal activity where it comes through a choke point as opposed to the point where it is diffuse on the Internet.”

Shades of Carnivore, right? The “choke point” to which Mueller alludes is presumably the National Security Agency, which has been probing the data passing through the Internet backbone like some Orwellian spinal surgeon. Which is a little frightening. Because the packets of data being passed back and forth over the Internet don’t come prelabeled. There’s no “ILLEGAL ACTIVITY” designation. It’s just activity, and Mueller would apparently like permission to survey it all.

While respecting the privacy rights of the individual, of course. Thoughtful.

Yahoo’s exploratory advertising deal with Google has given it an alternative to Microsoft’s unsolicited takeover bid after all–the possibility of a federal antitrust investigation. The Justice Department is reportedly examining the companies’ dalliance amid concerns that it violates antitrust laws.

Which isn’t surprising at all, really. Together, Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) control more than 80% of the U.S. search market. And as Microsoft (MSFT) general counsel Brad Smith will happily tell you, that’s anti-competitive. And he’d know, right?

Investors who were chugging Milk of Magnesia in advance of Google’s (GOOG) quarterly earnings today were given a nice surprise this afternoon when the company posted solid profit and sales gains for the quarter.

Net income rose 31% on revenue growth of 42% from a year ago, exceeding Wall Street estimates. Overall paid clicks rose 20% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier. That’s down from 30% growth of the previous quarter, but better much better than the forecasts of, ahem, certain third parties. “Our ongoing innovation in search, ads and apps helped drive healthy growth globally across our product lines, yielding another strong quarter for Google,” said Chief Executive Eric Schmidt. Apparently, the slowing U.S. economy hasn’t had much impact on the company’s business.

Shares of Google soared past the $500 mark in after-hours trading on the news. Seems the company’s historic run is far from over.

Yahoo’s paid search performance may be the fastest growing in the industry, but that doesn’t mean it’s the most effective. In fact, some companies would argue it’s not that effective at all. Companies like BigReds.com, which is suing Yahoo (YHOO) for more than $1 million for click fraud.

The collectibles retailer claims it paid Yahoo’s Search Marketing unit, formerly known as Overture Services, some $936,000 between 2002 and 2006 for click-throughs. It assumed these click-throughs were from legitimate customers, but it turned out they were generated by Yahoo/Overture affiliates who received commissions based on the number of clicks their sites generated for advertisers.

“These clicks were not actual traffic, but were fraudulent clicks,” BigReds claims in the suit. “Affiliates of Overture used software programs, employed people, and/or directed people other than actual customers to click on plaintiffs’ links from keyword search results.”

To be fair, Yahoo did offer BigReds a refund for the fraudulent clicks. It just wasn’t as large as the retailer had hoped–$17,082.80.

Boy, that was fast. Yahoo’s (YHOO) limited two-week test of Google’s (GOOG) AdSense for Search service has yielded wondrous results. So wondrous, in fact, that we’re only a week into it and “people familiar with the matter” are already telling The Wall Street Journal that the trial may well lead to a broader outsourcing deal between the two companies.

Five bucks and a Yahoo Insta-Yodel! says the Net portal’s having another sit-down with Microsoft this week.

Anyway, by some estimates, a deal with Google would increase Yahoo’s cash flow by more than $1 billion a year. A nice little spike in revenue like that would certainly bolster Yahoo’s efforts to spur Microsoft (MSFT) into increasing its unsolicited buyout bid for the Internet pioneer. That being the case, why didn’t Yahoo forge such a partnership with Google last July when it was restructuring the company’s “ecosystem” and slaughtering sacred cows? Perhaps government approval was a concern?

Now here’s something you don’t hear every day: Google is losing search market share to Yahoo in the states. According to a new quarterly study by SEO outfit SearchIgnite, spending by search advertisers on Google (GOOG) slipped to 70.4% (down from 74.5%), while spending on Yahoo (YHOO) grew to 24.2% in March from 19.6% at the end of the fourth quarter. Breaking it down month-by-month, Yahoo saw gains of 79.2% in January, 37.3% in February, and 43.9% in March.

A surprising trend, given the general state of affairs over at Yahoo recently and one that may, may, bode well for the first-quarter results the company is due to report on April 22. In the face of Microsoft’s (MSFT) hostile takeover offer and its claims that Yahoo’s business is on a fast downward spiral, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang has insisted that the company will meet its first-quarter projections.

That may well be the case, if SearchIgnite’s metrics prove accurate. Said Roger Barnette, president of SearchIgnite, “If these numbers are an accurate reflection of the market, it could lead Yahoo to surpass expectations.”

Meanwhile, spending by search advertisers on MSN declined to 5.4% from 5.9%, quarter over quarter. No wonder Microsoft wants Yahoo so badly.