All Things Digital

One of the investments we make is to introduce new products that initially cost more because they deliver an entirely new level of value to the customer. Then we ride the cost curves down with value engineering and volume manufacturing, leaving us far head of our competitors. We have some of these types of investments in front of us that I can’t discuss.”

– Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, July 21, 2008

The media will gather tomorrow at Apple’s Cupertino, Calif., headquarters for an invitation-only event–presumably about updates to its MacBook and MacBook Pro lines. And as with every Apple (AAPL) product launch, tomorrow’s has been preceded by feverish speculation about what form, exactly, those updates will take. Among the rumors currently making the rounds:

• Apple will uncrate a new line of MacBooks whose cases are carved from a single brick of aircraft-grade aluminum.
• Apple’s refreshed MacBook line will include a machine priced at below $1000, perhaps even as low as $800.
• The new MacBooks will feature glass, multi-touch trackpads and LED-backlit displays.
• They’ll swap out Intel’s chipset–not the central processor–for Nvidia’s MCP7A, which reportedly blows the doors off Intel’s G45 in the graphics department.
• Blu-ray will be offered as an option on high-end models.
• Finally, Apple’s new line of portables will include the unmatchable “state-of-the-art new product” to which Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer and COO Tim Cook referred earlier this year, and that product will be a tablet. Something along the lines of the “MacBook Touch” described by MacDailyNews back in July.
  

  Think MacBook screen, possibly a bit smaller, in glass with iPhone-like but fuller-featured multi-touch. Gesture library. Full Mac OS X. This is why they bought P.A. Semi. Possibly with Immersion’s haptic tech. Slot-loading SuperDrive. Accelerometer. GPS. … App Store-compatible, able to run Mac apps, too.”

An interesting spread of rumors, some quite likely, others improbable … and yet entirely plausible because, after all, it’s Apple we’re talking about. We’ll find out which of these proves true tomorrow at 10 a.m. PDT. I’ll be covering the event live, so be sure pay us a visit tomorrow.

If it should arrive at market on or before mid-October, Apple’s anticipated MacBook Pro revision (pictured above and below in a photo allegedly leaked to French tech pub NowhereElse) will allegedly share the same aluminum enclosure as the next-gen MacBook. It will also allegedly lack FireWire 400 and 28-pin DVI-I ports, which have been removed to reduce the machine’s footprint. That’s the latest grist to be fed into the Apple (AAPL) rumor mill, anyway.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Piper Jaffray Analyst Moonlighting at CrazyAppleRumors.com
• Apple to Resellers: Stock Up on MacBooks, iPods (PS: Good Luck Selling Them After the Refresh)
• Apple Introduces Mysterious Transition 1.0
• iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed

[Image Credit: Sandy/Flickr]

The malaise in the financial markets may have taken its toll on Apple’s share price, but it has done little to hamper sales of the company’s hardware. Despite a down market, Apple’s (AAPL) share of the laptop sector is increasing. In the United States Apple’s share grew by 60 percent, year over year, rising from 6.6 percent to 10.6 percent in the second quarter of this year. In contrast, most every other PC maker’s market share was either down, flat or very slightly up compared with last year.

Clearly, Apple’s position in the notebook computer market is a strong one. And presumably the company will grow stronger still following the debut of its new MacBooks, which are rumored to be launching in mid-October. Perhaps RBC analyst Mike Abramsky wasn’t all that far off when he predicted that 2008 could be a record-breaking year for Apple. Back in August, Abramsky suggested that “massive back-to-school Mac sales” in excess of three million will see Apple reporting year-over-year growth of 44 percent for the three-month period ending September.

Up to now, Apple shipped 2,319,000 Macs in Q1 2008 and 2,289,000 in Q2. If it ships the 3.04 million Abramsky predicts for Q3 and a similar number in Q4, 2008, well … 2008 is going to be a very good year for Apple. Very good.

It’s looking more and more like Apple’s next-generation Macbooks will arrive at market in October. In a research note to clients today, Citigroup’s Richard Gardner said channel checks have confirmed that the notebooks are in production.

“Field checks confirm that shipments of new MacBooks have begun, with a sharp production ramp planned for September and an introduction planned for early October,” Gardner wrote. “The most distinctive features of the new MacBook appear to be a very thin aluminum casing, an LED-backlit display and an aggressive entry-level price point.”

Gardner expects Apple (AAPL) to introduce its fall notebook line “within weeks.” October 14, perhaps?

Economic softness in the states is widespread, but apparently it stops short at 1 Infinite Loop. Though consumer spending on electronics is generally trending lower, it’s trending higher for Apple products. According to a new survey by Changewave, eight percent of consumers plan to buy a laptop in the next 90 days, and five percent, a desktop. Of these, 34 percent are considering a MacBook and 30 percent an Apple (AAPL) desktop–up two percent and three percent respectively from the year prior.

This as consumer interest in machines from PC rivals like Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) wanes. Planned purchases of Dell laptops have fallen 4 to 20 percent while planned purchases of HP desktops have fallen 3 to 17 percent. “Consumer electronics spending will remain weak over the next 90 days,” said Changewave Executive Director Paul Carton. “The one bright spot is Apple, whose Mac sales are outperforming and are poised to once again reach new all-time highs.”

Odd to hear when Apple products are typically more spendy than those of the company’s rivals. Apple Financial Services must be doing great business these days.

As back-to-school days draw closer, it’s becoming more and more difficult to separate fan-site buzz from the speculation of analysts. Feeding grist into the Apple rumor mill today is, you guessed it, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who believes Apple will hold a special event next month to debut some new hardware. Observing that Apple (AAPL) held just such an event every September for the past three years, Munster speculates that the company will hold one this year as well. And he predicts it will see the debut of new iPod and MacBook models. Specifically, he’s looking for capacity changes to iPod shuffles and iPod nanos and a redesign of the iPod Touch at a new $199 price point. As for Apple’s MacBook, Munster believes we’ll see an overhaul of the entire line. “We note that the MacBook has had the same design since its launch over two years ago, and the MacBook Pro has had essentially the same design since its launch over two-and-a-half years ago, which was very similar in design to the PowerBook G4 released over five-and-a-half years ago,” he told clients. “To compare, the long-running iMac G5 design lasted three years.”

A fair point, and one that’s been made here and elsewhere a number of times already. Worth noting here as well, is Munster’s claim that a MacBook Touch, iTablet, iPad, or whatever you want to call it, is unlikely this year. While the analyst believes such a device exists, he thinks it’s more likely to debut in 2010. “… Ultimately, we expect Apple to develop a full touchscreen MacBook, although not until the technology has fully matured over the next two-to-three years,” he said. “We believe multi-touch is a core differentiator of Apple products, and Apple has adequately protected its innovations in order to maintain a leading edge.”

If you’re considering buying a new MacBook/Pro or iPod, you might want to postpone that call to Apple Financial Services for a few months. Otherwise, you may end up with a very quickly outdated laptop and media player. In a bulletin to retail partners today, Apple warned of declining iPod and MacBook/Pro inventory and “strongly suggested” they stock up on the devices before the back-to-school rush. What this means, of course, is that the company is very likely nearing refreshes of both those product lines.

And it’s about time, isn’t it? The iPod would certainly benefit from a storage and feature update. The MacBook is due for a six-month refresh. And Apple’s (AAPL) MacBook Pro is due for a revision, since design-wise it’s really just a tweaked version of the machine that debuted as the PowerBook Titanium in 2001.

Anyone want to buy a used MacBook Pro? In September?

What sort of product innovation would compel Apple to forecast a nearly five percent drop in gross profit margin for its next quarter? That’s a question the Mac faithful are asking themselves today after the company’s quarterly conference call with investors Monday. According to Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer, Apple (AAPL) is reining in its estimates for the final quarter of the 2008 fiscal year because of a “future product transition.”

Just what that transition may be, Oppenheimer would not say, though he did offer that it will involve “state-of-the-art new products that our competitors just aren’t going to be able to match.” Later in the call, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook elaborated a bit. “One of the investments we make is to introduce new products that initially cost more because they deliver an entirely new level of value to the customer,” Cook said. “Then we ride the cost curves down with value engineering and volume manufacturing, leaving us far head of our competitors. We have some of these types of investments in front of us that I can’t discuss.”

So again, what are these mysterious investments? Updates to the MacBook and the iPod, most likely. Both lines are due for refreshing. “We believe Apple is readying new iPods and new portables that will apply downward margin pressure in the September quarter and into FY 09,” Piper Jaffray (PJC) analyst Gene Munster wrote in a research note to clients. “We believe there is an 80 percent chance Apple will introduce redesigned MacBooks and possibly new MacBook Pros at lower price points. Specifically, Apple may re-enter the $999 price point (currently $1099)with the MacBook, or test the $1,799 price point with the MacBook Pro (currently $1999). In addition, we expect slightly redesigned iPods in the September quarter, with lower-cost touch-based iPods for the holiday season. We believe Apple is getting slightly more aggressive with its pricing; but overall, the company is not diverting from its strategy of premium pricing.”

It’s been 267 days since Apple last updated the MacBook Pro. That’s 81 days longer than the company historically takes between updates. Which means it was high time for an upgrade. And today we were finally given one.

This morning Apple (AAPL) refreshed both its MacBook and MacBook Pro lines, adding Intel’s Penryn Core 2 Duo chipset (up to 2.4 GHz for the MacBook and up to 2.6 GHz for the MacBook Pro). As Apple’s flagship portable, the MacBook Pro now boasts the same multitouch trackpad found in the MacBook Air and an LED backlighting option for the 17-inch model. All but the low-end MacBook feature a two-gigabyte RAM, with a build-to-order option that allows for their upgrade to a four-gigabyte RAM. New Macbooks are priced from $1,099 to $1,499, new MacBook Pros from $1,999 to $2,799.