John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

A “Conservative” Estimate: Apple Will Sell 14.4 Million iPads in 2011, 20.1 Million in 2012

Well, Apple has really sucked the air out of the news cycle this week, hasn’t it? There were the reviews. The Sand Hill Road paeans. The content deal breakdowns. And sales estimate after sales estimate after sales estimate–the latest and most aggressive of which landed in my in-box this morning.

Research outfit iSuppli figures iPad shipments in calendar 2010 will top out at 7.1 million. In 2011, the firm projects sales will spike to 14.4 million. And 2012 will see shipments of 20.1 million (see chart below).

Suffice it to say, these scenarios are far more bullish than the ones we’ve heard to date. Which is ironic given that iSuppli describes them as “conservative” and warns that Apple’s (AAPL) decision not to support Flash will have “a limiting effect” on the iPad’s sales potential.

Personally, I don’t see it. I’ve noticed two things since installing ClickToFlash a few months ago.

  1. Safari no longer crashes.
  2. I don’t miss Flash at all.