Just to set the parameters for discussion, I submit that there are two
surveys being compared here:

(1) a “ChangeWave” survey to determine what percentage of people intended to
buy the iPhone just before the initial launch of the first version, and

(2) a “ChangeWave” survey to determine what percentage of people intend to
buy the iPad just before its initial launch

iPhone was not a huge hit in the couple of months, when it was priced at
$500 and $600 (4 Gig and 8 Gig versions, respectively). Sure, it had a big
spike the first weekend (270,000 units, if memory serves) due to pent up
demand from us fan-boys (I was and still am one of them) but sales cooled
off considerably after the initial burst, prompting a surprise $200 price
cut in early September. This had the intended effect of juicing up the
demand again. It took 74 days for the original iPhone to reach the 1
million mark, and part of the problem was apparently the price, because
about 400,000 of that 1 million occurred either on the first weekend or
during the 5 days after the big price drop. Here's a link for you…

http://www.tipb.com/2007/09/12.....e-d…
sts-stunned/

My opinion is that the 9% positive response for the initial ChangeWave
survey was probably harmed by the initial price. It would have been higher
had the initial price been more reasonable to the typical consumer.

So my first point was basically that we shouldn't compare the 13% for iPad
now to the 9% for $500-$600 iPhone then and just extrapolate from the
subsequent (great) iPhone performance. It's just not that simple. The
price of the iPhone had a considerable effect on the demand, as does the
price of the iPad, which is in a nice range now, and as you say, will likely
drop even more over time.

I agree that if you assume that “13% of everyone wants to buy one” then that
would be ridiculously large demand. But that leads to my second point: the
sample group of a ChangeWave survey is not random. Not even close. To be
part of the survey, you have to join their group, and the group membership
is heavily biased towards tech geeks and early adopters. You can't just
assume that because 13% of ChangeWavers want an iPad that 13% of everyone
else does too. It doesn't necessarily carry over to the general population.
The rest of my post suggested that a well-integrated mobile device such as
iPhone has immediate appeal to everyone, not just tech geeks. The iPad…
well, let's just say it's going to take some time for the general population
to clue in about why they want one. (I know why I want one… but I'm a
geek.) I think there will be a surge of early adopters, followed by a
cooling off but nice steady rhythm for a while, and then a steady build as
word spreads and iPad owners show off their devices to friends, etc. This
is similar to the uptake of Mac OS computers that is happening now, as
opposed to the “I've GOT to replace my current cell phone with THAT thing”
emotion that iPhone enjoys.

The only wild card is what level of uptake Apple is aiming for, because they
will surely drop the price abruptly if they aren't reaching it. (They said
as much in an interview.) Even at the current modest iPad price, there is
enough profit margin to allow for price drops, and Apple stated that they
are willing to do so to achieve the level of sales they are after. But what
level is that? It is probably dependent upon manufacturing capability as
well as profit and market share desires. Complicated.

My prediction is that iPad will sell no more than 5 million units through
the end of this calendar year, and even if they do that, it will be a great
success. I'm trying to keep a lid on this wild-eyed expectations of 20
million units of iPad sales, which some people seem to expect based upon
this survey comparison.