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Broadpoint AmTech Analyst Would Like His Verizon iPhone NOW, Please

by John Paczkowski
Posted on November 23, 2009 at 8:31 AM PT

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jobs_canyouhearmenow-250x205-150x150 June 2010. That’s when AT&T’s iPhone exclusivity contract with Apple expires–according to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall, anyway.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Marshall once again said he believes Apple (AAPL) will bring the iPhone to Verizon (VZ) in the second half of 2010 and forfeit AT&T’s (T) sweetheart carrier subsidy as a result. This is, of course, essentially what he said a month ago, although now we appear to have a firmer date.

“While [Apple] started off with exclusive arrangements in 2007 with the original iPhone launch, the company has since migrated towards multiple carriers per region,” Marshall wrote in an October note to investors. “In our view, diverse carrier support is a key element to driving global penetration of the iPhone. Therefore, we believe the chances are high the iPhone will find its way onto the [Verizon] network in 2H10.”

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  • George Slusher
    What about CDMA? Apple would have to design & get approval for a different phone. Also, CDMA cannot support voice & data at the same time, so the Verizon iPhone users wouldn't be able to check the web while talking on the phone, as current users can.
  • Michael Morrone
    Apple and AT&T have already extended this contract in the past. I think it likely to get extended again. I doubt Apple will bother with a CDMA iPhone, and you won't see a Verizon iPhone until LTE.
  • Andrew Augustine
    Logic may be the analyst’s worst friend.

    The above statement is nearly a paradox in that it has the words “worst” and “friend” in the same sentence. But here is my reasoning. Applying the logic of Apples recent moves around the world, one would assume that Verizon is a logical next step for Apple, giving Verizon’s 80 million (plus) customers in the US. But it is not that simple.

    The most recent development can be found in Verizon’s Droid advertisement in the December 2009 issue of Popular Science – a place most analysts are unlikely to look. It is a scathing diatribe of Apple’s iPhone.

    Here are a few quotes from Verizon's recent Ad:

    > “Doesn’t allow customization”
    > “Doesn’t run multiple apps”
    > “Doesn’t allow you to swap out batteries”
    > “Doesn’t allow open development”
    ..and the last of which shows some or should we say a lot of venom...
    > “These arrogant little devices are barely worth more than the pocket lint they rest upon”.

    It appears that Verizon feels that the addition of Droid (i.e. Android) and the Palm Pre smart phones come January gives it the weapon to fight the Apple iPhone and AT&T (Verizon’s #1 competitor).

    Verizon clearly knows that it holds the keys to Apple’s desire to become a formidable force in the US mobile market, and it appears that Verizon has decided to hold back Apple’s advance. So analysts beware, not all roads lead to Rome. This inevitability reasoning about Apple, with a little dose of logic, in all things related to growth, is how bobbles are born! But Wall Street never learns - just a word of caution.
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About John

John Paczkowski has been poking fun at the tech industry and the personalities that drive it since 1997. From 1999 to 2007, he wrote the award-winning tech news Web log Good Morning Silicon Valley for the San Jose Mercury News, Silicon Valley's daily newspaper. Read more »

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