Apple’s Christmas Quarter: “The Mother of All Earnings Blowouts”?
by John Paczkowski
Posted on November 13, 2008 at 10:25 AM PT
Here’s a bit of happy news in these sad, sad times. Apple’s going to post a hell of a first quarter–“the mother of all earnings blowouts,” according to Andy Zaky over at Bullish Cross, whose track record in forecasting such things is quite a bit better than that of the experts.
When Apple (AAPL) releases its first-quarter results in January, Zaky believes the company will report earnings of $1.96 per share on sales of $11.29 billion.
That’s about $1.2 billion more revenue than most analysts are calling for.
“That would mark the largest revenue beat by any company I’ve ever seen, and will generally be an all out fantasy-like decimation of analyst consensus estimates,” Zaky writes. “Depending on where the stock price is at the time of earnings, where the consensus and whisper numbers stand going into the results, and the market’s current sentiment on equities, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20 point move in the stock price. This is a once in a blue moon type of earnings situation that will likely be far more surprising than Google’s results last April.”
A once in a blue moon earnings situation. If that’s truly the case, then why the big discrepancy between Zaky’s numbers and consensus estimates? Zaky says the street’s been addled in the head by the econanlypse.
“It has gotten to the point of irrational bearish exuberance, that the estimates no longer reflect even a scintilla of financial reality,” he writes. “The analysts have been consistently wrong in predicting Apple’s earnings results and this time they’re going to get their ‘hats handed to them,’ as the expression goes.”
Perhaps. We’ll see in January.
Follow John on Twitter | Follow AllThingsD on Twitter
Comments
The only numbers that should count are the numbers of shoppers in the Apple Stores.
I frequently check the pulse by visiting 4 stores located within 90 minutes of my Sarasota, FL area home. I have also visited three stores in England and get regular reports from friends and family there, as well as, recent personal visits to stores in New York and California.
During the past few weeks, I visited stores in Brandon and Estero (Naples), Florida and got a report on the opening of their latest store in Richmond, England.
The UK store was packed two weeks ago and, last night, I stopped in the store at the International Plaza in Tampa.
In the Tampa, the store staff were all busy with customers, when I walked in and iMacs, Macbooks and lots of Apple bags were going out the door, at 5:30.
By way of contrast, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus were almost empty. Last Sunday, the staff in Apple stores in Tampa said they were overwhelmed with shoppers.
Before they run off at the mouth, these analysts need to go check the numbers that count. Apple is the only bright spot in an awful lot of dead malls.
Posted by Al Horrigan at November 13th, 2008 at 11:48 amPrediction: Microsoft takes over Apple…:)
Posted by Nathaniel Dimtricus at November 13th, 2008 at 2:40 pmIn reply to “Al Horrigan”
I first acquired Apple stock in 1997/1998 when I noticed that the Apple Resellers in London were becoming uncharacteristically busy.
Like you, I keep tabs on the retail activity.
I can confirm that the London stores remain very busy. The London Regent’s Street store, Apple’s largest, is generally full to capacity and folks are leaving with purchases. There appears to be a huge interest in the MacBooks. The Pros were unavailable (sold out) at the time two weeks back. There was just one of the new LED monitors on display in a corner and this was not attracting much attention.
The surrounding area shows little sign of recession judged by number of people on Oxford Street and Regent’s Street but the shop assistants in many stores appear somewhat bored.
It seems for Apple Retail, business is as usual here in London although many retailers are announcing sharp declines.
Resellers are busy, with “lookers” at least, compared with non Apple like stores in the same neighborhood.
Posted by Barry Clarke at November 13th, 2008 at 3:35 pmAndy Zaky does a great job with financial analysis and puts many Analysts to shame, particularly those few who err towards “gut feel”
The strength of Zaky is his approach to and depth in analyzing trends. This approach has served him well over the recent past stable environment.
The current environment is however far from stable.
Posted by Barry Clarke at November 13th, 2008 at 4:06 pm