If Facebook’s Worth $15 Billion, Then My Stupid Idea’s Got to Be Good for $10 Mil
Apparently the vainglory from which Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears to suffer is communicable and spreading rapidly throughout the social network’s developer community.
Encouraged by reports that Microsoft is considering a $500 million investment that would value Facebook at up to $15 billion, some software engineers are assigning hyperbolic valuations to the Facebook widgets they’ve developed, though the business models on which they’re based are even more unproven than those of Facebook itself.
To wit, RockYou CEO Lance Tokuda, who’s convinced his Super Wall widget, an enhanced version of Facebook’s Wall bulletin board, is guaranteed a not-at-all-widget-sized financial windfall. “If you told me you were going to write me a check for $10 million, I’d say, ‘Forget it,’ ” Tokuda told the New York Times of his asking price for Super Wall. “This is a completely new channel of delivering content to users and letting them communicate. Owning that over the long stretch can be worth a lot.”
No. Owning the “users” over the long stretch might be worth something. That’s why Facebook is being given these frothy valuations. Owning a widget easily replicated by the company that owns those users? If you get $10 million for that, you’re luckier than Zuckerberg.
Comments
Facebook seems to be the aggregate site for sharing yourself with others. It seems the easiest way to organize a fan base around a brand, be it a TV show, consumer product, or event. As a marketer, the ability to measure eyeball interest is invaluable.
Posted by Andy Hunn at October 4th, 2007 at 9:07 amRight Andy, but RockYou doesn’t really have that same access to those eyeballs. The SuperWall application (and it’s competitor FunWall plus several others) are just replacements for functionality already provided by Facebook itself.
Point being, the RockYou FunWall application is disposable, even more so than Facebook is. It’s $10 million valuation is about as realistic as the old dogfood.com valuations of Bubble 1.0.
Posted by Geoff Davis at October 4th, 2007 at 10:11 amAs a Facebook Fanboy, I’m beginning to not like your site. I think I’ll head over to allfacebook.com, where we are discussing how ANY/ALL Facebook apps are worth at least $10M!
Posted by Mark Mayhew at October 4th, 2007 at 1:18 pmAnd here I am wasting all my time on allGeocities.com …
Posted by John Paczkowski at October 4th, 2007 at 2:41 pm